Once more into the breach dear friends: 2010 NFL Preview

Was going to go with "Banging my head against the wall: 2010 NFL Preview", but decided to class it up with a Shakespeare reference instead. The Bard and the NFL, say what you will about me, but never that I'm not eclectic.

This title, lifted from Henry V, references what's regarded by many to be the most famous battle speech in history. Personally I opt for the "we will rip out their living guts and use them to grease the treads of our tanks" speech from Patton, but splitting hairs between the two isn't the point. Either one appropriately conveys the point I'm trying to make: The NFL season is a war.
This metaphor plays itself out in all parts of the game, from the belligerent language it uses, to the fact that the victor is often simply the side with the most bodies standing upright, everything about the next 17 weeks of football parallels this idea. Bill Simmons, my favorite sportswriter and the closest thing I have to an idol, wrote a brilliant column last week equating NFL QBs to war films. At the risk of stepping on his touchdown call, I will cease analogizing along these lines, just know that for the last week I’ve been feeling like I was about to storm a beach.

(Quick sidenote on Simmons, one of the items on my bucket list is to get an email printed in one of the reader mailbags he periodically runs, so far I’ve been unsuccessful in the few attempts that I’ve made. The most recent attempt is a play off his classic “Levels of Losing” column, which if you haven’t read, click the link and take 10 minutes to do so. Not only is it required reading for any sportsfan, it will put the following paragraph in the proper context. Anyway, his this week’s shot at mailbag immortality:

“Can I put in a request for yet another Level of Losing? I’d like to call this one The Armageddon, since it’s like being told that a comet is on a collision course with your team’s season and will snuff out all life as you know it. (Thought about calling it The Deep Impact, since it was the better film, but that sounded too much like porn) Although things seem fine at the moment, there is no escaping the inevitable truth that the end is coming, and you don’t have any rockets to go blast it out of the sky. I’m currently experiencing this in both football and baseball. The Twins will probably find their way into the playoffs again, only to be bashed into smithereens by the evil comet (Yankees). The Vikings are being buried by key injuries and have their own comet looming (Tarvaris Jackson), who’s appearance also spells doom. The games haven’t even been played yet, but it feels like a foregone conclusion, I’m now suffering losses preemptively. Might be time to take a break from sports.”)

But today, gameday, is oddly serene. It’s not that I feel any better about the Vikings prospects, either for tonight’s game or the season, it’s just that I can’t muster any negativity when my old friend NFL football is walking back through the door. Would it be more fun if I didn’t have to spend the last week hearing about tonight’s matchup? Watching highlights from last year’s NFC title game debacle on a loop? Sure, but that doesn’t change the fact that I will wake up this Sunday, look out at a glorious fall morning, and know that 9 hours of football is on tap. I mean I set a fantasy lineup 5 minutes ago, how could I be upset?

The simple truth is, when you’re living and dying with the Vikings, you’re already dead, at least through all history to date. Some seasons start with low expectations and blossom into unexpected greatness, like last one. Some start with high hopes that get dashed right out of the gate. Some start with Tarvaris Jackson and inspire only indifference. As a diehard fan, you buy the ticket and take the ride, wherever it goes. Reading back through the post I wrote following last year’s NFC Championship game, it would be hard to claim I was somehow about the fray on all of this. Admittedly, I was crushed, and don’t imagine any fan of the team could really feel differently. But what I can do differently, and have improved on a bit in recent years, is save those hopeless moments for the big stuff, and not sweat the small. Anyone who receives my in-game text messages might beg to differ, but I swear it’s true, I’m getting better :)

Because there have been much darker times to be a Vikings fan. Save for last year, there’s a higher ceiling for this team than any that took the field from 2006-2008. Some of them produced results, but nobody went into those years saying “Look out for the Vikings”; in fact, looking objectively at the 2002-2008, it was really a pretty mediocre run. Culpepper-to-Moss was awesome, the defense was putrid, and the team finished around .500, not exactly something to pine for over what we’ve got going now. I guess what I’m saying here Vikes fans, is that even though we were a better team a month ago, we’ve got the chance to be that team again in two months. So let’s hold the fort through this brutal first half, keep Favre upright and see where this thing takes us. Nothing about this league is predictable.

So of course, I’m doing predictions!

AFC West
Gets the nod over the NFC West in the bad division derby only because there are a couple of up-and-coming teams here that are fun to think about on paper. We know that in any given season, there will be 3 or 4 teams that significantly outperform expectations, and as many who fall below. This division looks to be home of one of each.

San Diego (9-7) – The specter of a defensive end running around the backup left tackle to crumple Philip Rivers like an accordion is playing into this pick, but the buttery-soft early season schedule sets up so nice that I think the new regulars will be able to ease into things. Weakest division champ in my mind.

Kansas City (9-7) – That’s right, we’ve got an outperformer alert! Not much of a sleeper due to the steam their getting, and the first half of the schedule doesn’t do them any favors, but if the Chiefs can get through the first half of their schedule at .500, they should be on their way to a nice final record. Arrowhead used to be one of the most feared places in the league to play, so a KC team challenging for the playoffs could put a charge into the crowd and bring some of that back late in the year.

Oakland (6-10) – Did I miss the part where Jason Campbell was good? Like everyone else, I didn’t watch a lot of Redskins games the past couple of years, but I’ve seen enough to be unimpressed. Jason Campbell is better than JaMarcus Russell like a colonoscopy is better than a vasectomy, I don’t want either.

Denver (5-11) – Thud. Kyle Orton is a winner, it’s true, one of the more perplexing things I’ve seen in my time as an NFL fan. But the only guy who makes plays on the team is dinged up, the best O-lineman missed time, the best defensive player is hurt and the best offensive player from last year is in Miami. Maybe I’m missing something, but what’s to like here?


AFC South
Same old story, Indy is a lock for the playoffs, Jacksonville is locked out and the Double Ts (Titans & Texans) are all over the map. Time to flip a coin for second place.

Indianapolis (12-4) – Most boring good team in the league to watch, although it is kind of fun to watch defensive players running into each other when Manning is doing his pre-snap routine, some of them must be winded before the ball is in motion.

Houston (10-6) – Not only did it agree with my coin flip, but in the battle of mercurial teams, give me the injury-prone QB over the headcase one anytime. Too much offense on this team, just need a bit of D at the right times.

Tennessee (8-8) – For those of you scoring at home, Expectations are currently 5-0 against Vince Young since he left college, and they’re a -120 early line favorite heading into this season. It’s weird, if he was their backup and you told me he’d be playing by game 3, I’d probably add a win or two, such is the odd nature of NFL QBs.

Jacksonville (7-9) – MoJo and not much else, a question to ponder: Is David Garrard good? Stats are always nice, receivers always non-existent, if you put him on a team with some competent players, what’s the ceiling? I say postseason berth, followed by Aaron Brooks-like meltdown.


AFC North
Only thing we know for sure, pencil the Browns into the #4 spot.

Baltimore (11-5) – Dig the offseason moves, but think the defense will suffer a bit with a thin secondary. Once Ed Reed leaves the field, which he will at some point, this team has shown it can get exposed in the passing game. The offense should be able to compensate, but there’s a simple formula: Take 16 games and subtract a victory for each game you expect Anquan Boldin to miss. Obviously I’ve got him at 5.

Cincinnati (8-8) – I’ve flip-flopped on this team roughly 200 times in the past couple of weeks, eventually falling on the side of a letdown season. Sure their final record will only be one game worse than 2009, but with the strength of the AFC East, that means no playoffs. What can I say, just don’t like the prospects of the offense and think the D is good, not great.

Pittsburgh (7-9) – Terribly risky to bet against what has been historically been one of the league’s most resilient teams, but it’s been a rough ride. Could’ve been an awesome 3-team race here, unfortunately Unfrozen Caveman Quarterback had to go trolling for college chicks and get suspended. By itself, this could’ve been absorbed, but throw in the loss of the team’s best O-lineman and I’m feeling a down year for the Steelers. I’m well aware that this is the pick most likely to make me look stupid though, they’re a scrappy team going back as far as I can remember.

Cleveland (3-13) – See Raiders synopsis, adding Jake Delhomme is the answer? Only if the question is: How do we ensure Jake Locker plays here next season?

AFC East
Three teams that are good and one I think could be sneaky good. You heard me right, I’m about to praise the Bills.

New England (11-5) – Return to glory here, even if they don’t have a defense. I grabbed the Brady-Moss connection wherever I could in fantasy leagues, so obviously feeling a huge offensive year. Only question is can the strong pass defenses in the division slow them up enough? I say no.

New York Jets (9-7) – Overhyped based on a good playoff run, this team has a great defense, but will hit some bumps in the road as it tries to transition Mark Sanchez from a game manager to a game winner. Shonn Greene looked great at the end of last season, but replacing Thomas Jones with LaDanian Tomlinson was a mistake in my mind, nobody ever wants Jones, but all he does is produce.

Miami (9-7) – Very excited for the Chad Henne Era now that Brandon Marshall is in the fold (and no, it’s not only because he’s on my Dynasty League team). The Fish have a top-notch running game and passable D, some big plays from receivers were all that was missing last season, I think they get enough this year to flip 7-9 into 9-7.

Buffalo (8-8) – Well hey it’s only a 2-game improvement, but what did you expect, playoffs? CJ Spiller has been a favorite of mine the last couple years at Clemson and the Bills D is an underrated unit. Their only problem is being stuck in the AFC East, instead of one of the Wests…oh yeah, and QB, that could be an issue.


NFC West
Worst. Division. Ever. What was wrong with 3 divisions anyway? 3 champs, 3 wild cards, none of this “terrible division champs sneaking into the playoffs with an 8-8 record” garbage. Is it going to take a 7-9 division champion getting a home playoff game against an 11-5 wild card before this gets fixed? Anyway, somebody’s gotta win this thing.

San Francisco (10-6) – Yes, I have them at 10-6, but a big part of that is 6 games against the rest of the division. Any pick that relies heavily on Alex Smith’s arm and Frank Gore’s knees is by definition, risky, but I think a stellar D and non-conference swing through the AFC West makes this team a lock for double-digit wins. And in a division where the only competent team cut their assumed starting QB last week, that’s more than enough.

Arizona (7-9) – Quick story about Cardinals fans. Having family in Arizona, and being a sports nut, the first thing I check when visiting is who the local teams will be matched up against while I’m in town. The Cardinals website used the have a handy dandy ticket exchange where the general public could buy seats from season ticketholders at face value. This made perfect sense because the general composition of sportsfans in warm weather cities is mostly transplants who selected a team long ago. The New York transplant who has Cards tickets might want to see his team come to town, as well as the Cowboys or Eagles, but no way he’s not staying home to watch his Giants when the Seahawks are in town. Following the Super Bowl run two years ago though, that all changed, and now the Cardinals ticket exchange is the exclusive domain of season ticketholders. I’m going to predict that two years from now, members of the general public will once again be able to pick up cheap ducats in this fashion.

Seattle (4-12) – Matt Hasselbeck’s injury history + Pete Carroll’s coaching history = Just good enough to not be ungodly awful. Sure is a drag when everyone is allowed to pay their players, eh Pete?

St. Louis (3-13) – Anything not involving the words “Sam Bradford” and “season-ending surgery” should be considered a success here.


NFC South
An elite team, a team on the verge, a team past it’s window and a team that makes its fans want to jump out of a window, this should be pretty straightforward.
New Orleans (12-4) – Great early season setup to the schedule has them running out to an 8-1 start into the Week 9 bye, before a slate of tough road games (@DAL, @BAL, @ATL, @CIN) conspires to trip them up late in the season. Post-Super Bowl hangover and defensive injuries could be setbacks, but the way they can score, it’s tough to pick against them.

Atlanta (10-6) – In typical bizarre Falcons fashion, I see a 9-4 record and challenge to the Saints for the division heading into Week 15 at Seattle. A combo platter of the dreaded East-to-West travel and looking ahead to New Orleans the following week causes them to lose a bizarre game to the Seahawks. After which they will promptly come home and beat the Saints to keep hope alive, then blow their finale versus Carolina to extinguish said hope. Because that’s the kind of stuff that happens in the NFL.

Carolina (6-10) – Like the run game, like the D, like the way Steve Smith looked rejuvenated with Matt Moore at QB the last few weeks of 2009, but this looks like a .500 team all the way and the schedule pushes them lower still.

Tampa Bay (1-15) – Because even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile.


NFC North
Too much tied up emotionally here to hope for much accuracy here, but oh well.

Green Bay (12-4) – Pains me to say it, but I think they will be the class of the league and potentially the NFC. Kind of the Patriots West in terms of the current crop of D-backs being able to stop people, but if they get some veterans healthy as the season goes on, look out.  And no, this is not an attempt at a reverse jinx, just an honest appraisal.
Minnesota (10-6) – Absolute must to find a way to wring 3 wins out of the first 7 games, a brutal stretch that includes trips to the Saints, Jets, Patriots and Packers, as well as the Cowboys at home. As I said, find a way to win 3 and keep Favre on the field, we should be okay here.

Chicago (8-8) – I’m buying into the Cutler/Martz thing a bit, even if it does end in the first-ever 30/30 season by a QB. This season will tell us with some certainty whether Jay Cutler is actually good, or if he was just being propped up by Brandon Marshall, we shall see.

Detroit (5-11) – Friskiness alert! This should draw a few Lions fans back in, then they’ll go 8-8 next year, true hype will build and Matthew Stafford will suffer a career-threatening in Game 1 of the 2012 season. Don’t say I didn’t warn you Lions fans, you should know better now anyway.


NFC East
My pick for the best division in football, getting the slight nod over the AFC East now that the Redskins have a legit (albeit already gimpy) QB. The games between these teams are rarely bad, making their frequent appearances in prime time the one positive impact East Coast Bias has had on sports.

Dallas (11-5) – Followed by postseason flameout.

New York Giants (10-6) –Wracked by defensive injuries last year and forced to throw too much because of it, I think the Giants get healthy and reestablish their bread and butter this season. Could be an intriguing offense if the RBs can stay healthy and the young receiving corps develops as expected.

Philadelphia (9-7) – I’m a Kevin Kolb believer, but still think the Eagles running game is going to lack something fierce with LeSean McCoy as its top back. Just didn’t see anything out of him last year that made me think he’s going to get better, and if he can’t pickup blitzes in this offense, get ready for a lot of Leonard Weaver.

Washington (6-10) – Couple epic McNabb performances, he beats Philly once, misses some games due to injury, same as it ever was.



AFC Wild Card – Houston over San Diego, Baltimore over New York Jets
NFC Wild Card – New York Giants over Dallas, Minnesota over San Francisco


AFC Divisional – Indianapolis over Houston, Baltimore over New England
NFC Divisional – Green Bay over New York Giants, New Orleans over Minnesota


AFC Championship – Indianapolis over Baltimore
NFC Championship – Green Bay over New Orleans


Super Bowl – Green Bay over Indianapolis

(Now that might’ve been a reverse jinx)


So there they are, my thoughts on the season, be sure to savor every bit of it, because based on the news reports, it’s no certainty we’ll be seeing another one for some time.