Another perplexing week in the NFL has once again reinforced the notion that this is indeed to best sport on Earth...and left me scratching my head as to what could possibly happen next. A chance at two straight winning weeks in the picks department was thwarted Monday night, ironically by lack of picks. Rest assured, Jay Cutler did everything possible to help make my vision of a 4 INT game a reality, but fortunately (or unfortunately, if you like) the Packer secondary was just not going to accommodate him. One official interception, two more negated by penalties, and about three or four more, at least by my count, dropped by defenders. Can't blame the man for falling short friends, lord knows he tried to deliver.
Beyond that the game featured some fumbles, some dropped passes, penalties galore, and pretty much all-around ugly football. Now can't talk too much, as my team has played plenty ugly these first few weeks, and are now trailing Chicago by a two-game margin, but nothing last night that made that already unpleasant reality any worse. The leading rusher in the game was a QB, the other team's QB was 10 yards short of being the second, the skill players on both sides (save the QBs) looked average; there's just a whole lot going on with both of these teams that inspire no reaction beyond 'Meh'. That being said, Green Bay was the better team, and it was great watching Chicago steal the game. I'm no fan of the Bears to be sure, and have really tried to grow out of my hatred for the cheese-clad hordes from the East, but after an hour amongst them, I wanted nothing more than to see Packer fans crying in their beer. Thankfully, I got just what I wanted, schadenfreude in play, big time.
Sure Green Bay was better, and sure they'll probably get the last laugh on this whole thing by the time it wraps up, but for at least a day, that was a lot of fun. Not to mention the added bonus of pulling off a fantasy win on the game-winning field goal; the only downside to the night was the weekly record falling to 8-8, damn you Chargers and Skins.
So three weeks in, and what do we know? We know that you don't doubt any Steelers defense with Troy Polamalu. We know that you don't trust any offense with Alex Smith. (Well I know that now, you probably already knew both of those) We know that no team west of the Rockies is worth a damn, and that no team west of the Mississippi is a legitimate Super Bowl contender (Sorry Texans and Cowboys, not buying it).We know that:
Early game beers + Mid-afternoon pizza order x NFC/AFC West showdowns in late games = Nap
And there's really no escaping the math of that.
But most of all, we know that most of what we think we know will be rendered moot in the very near future, some of it so much so that we feel stupid. But since this is the here and now, and it's fun to revisit this stuff once times have changed, it seemed a good time for an NFL Power Poll.
Football teams are like beers, some more refreshing and tasteful than others, with varying degrees of flavor and complexity...or at least that's how I see it, and they say write what you know, so away we go:
Warm, flat can of Blatz, left outside on a hot summer day - In a word, disgusting
32-30. Buffalo/Cleveland/Detroit - Group ranking here so none had to be in front of another team. The only time you could possibly be excited about watching one of them is if you have fantasy guys on the opposing team and/or are gambling heavily on the opposition. When Detroit goes to Buffalo in Week 10, it's very possible their cumulative wretchedness could open up a cosmic wormhole directly to the bowels of hell. If not, then the Buffalo-Cleveland game four weeks later should finish the job. Then again, it's possible the football in hell might not even be this bad. I want to meet one of the poor bastards who plunks down his hard earned cash for Bills season tickets, not only does you team suck, but 25% of the home games feature either Detroit or Cleveland, with a side of Jacksonville thrown in to boot. But I suppose at least you can entertain visions of a win walking into the stadium on Sunday for those, that has to be rare.
(Sidenote: The Lions have been so bad for so long that it's to the point now where I bump fantasy guys up a couple spots when they're playing in Detroit on Thanksgiving. It's not for the stats, it's just to give me a reason to suffer through it.)
Old Style (except if consumed on Wrigley Field premises) - Not disgusting, just gross
29. Carolina (0-3) - They look terrible, but the once-dominant running game and fresh blood of a rookie QB offers a whiff of potential here. I'm thinking they'll be a bit better, and if not, who cares? This is not a team that stirs much emotion either way.
(Sidenote: Doesn't Jimmy Clausen just look like a punk? Him, Jay Cutler, Brady Quinn and Philip Rivers should form a gang called the Country Club Quarterbacks (CCQBs for short), get some wicked black-and-red '80s style leather jackets, then do battle with a rival gang led by Unfrozen Caveman Quarterback, with Derek Anderson, Matt Schaub and Mark Sanchez. Call them The Stubbles or something and outfit them in denim. This would've been a killer Saturday morning cartoon now that I think about it. Or perhaps a wrestling rivalry. The episode where The Stubbles are accosted in a pool hall due to their leader getting arrested on a rape beef might not go over so well with the kids. Then again, perhaps it would prevent the Little Unfrozen Caveman Quarterbacks of the worlds from traveling a similar path. They could even tie in one of those 'The More You Know' ads during one of the commercial breaks, "Hey kids, sometimes 'drunk enough to do whatever you want' sounds good, but can actually be a bad thing…")
28. Rams (1-2) – Just can’t muster any interest in watching this team at all, as a result, I know very little about how they beat Washington. Condensed replay of the game will probably get picked up by the DVR sometime this week, and I will be forced to reassess whether cutting down the time commitment by 75% makes it worthwhile. And then I will clean the bathroom instead.
27. Jaguars (1-2) – Ditto the Rams on the “anything, and I mean ANYTHING, is preferable to watching this” factor, but at least I can appreciate the good work Jacksonville is doing to stand between the Vikings and a move to Los Angeles, because nobody is going anywhere before this team. New rule of thumb for any team ranked in the bottom 5, only required viewing is when they pop up on the Red Zone channel. If they aren’t good enough to get there, you shouldn’t feel obligated to watch. I can guarantee you won’t see much of them, well at least not their offenses.
Budweiser - Lunchpail beer for my two favorite lunchpail QBs (of course they'd probably both fit better at jobs where lunchpails were standard equipment, but that's beside the point)
26. Broncos (1-2) – So they drilled a sky-high Seahawks team at home, and Kyle Orton’s mystifying ability for win football games with overmatched teams is still in play, but what else is there to like? The castoff receivers? The fact that their only explosive offensive player is gimping around on two bad hammys? I see last week’s Ortsplosion (that’s right, it happens just often enough to coin a phrase, they must occasionally hypnotize him into thinking he's back at Purdue playing the Gophers) as more an indictment of the Colts D than a statement about the Broncos passing game. Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney are going to continue to make plays? The secondaries in this game looked like they were under the control of two college stoners playing Madden on Easy, let’s just forget it occurred.
(Sidenote: We really need a derogatory nickname for Laurence Maroney, I thought about Laurence Meandery in recognition of his running style, Laurence Baloney as an indictment of his skills on the football field and Laurence Can-Blow-Me to convey the feelings of the fans who’s teams he’s played for. But in the end it was plainly obvious, I hearby dub thee, Laurence Jabroney.)
25. Raiders (1-2) – A shanked 32-yard field goal by a guy who hasn’t missed from that distance in almost 4 years spoiled the latest chapter in the Legend of Bruce Gradkowski last week, and I couldn’t be more perturbed. Now instead of my favorite scrappy underdog QB leading his team to a second straight win and second place in the NFC West standings, they’re relegated to a 3-way tie at the bottom and a bit of a murders row over the next 3 weeks. The running game and pass D look just good enough that a bit of capable QB play could win them some games, but only if they don’t piss the easy opportunities down their leg.
(Sidenote: How could Janikowski do that to a fellow Pollack? Was he mad that Bruce was stealing some of his thunder? Methinks perhaps the overseas mailbag began to get a bit light these past weeks. Seems pretty petty if you ask me, makes a person hearken back to the dependable Eastern bloc solidarity of the Cold War.)
Corona - Sounded much better during summer
24. Washington (1-2) – I don’t buy these guys at all, and if Dallas wasn’t stupid in Week One, the Skins could easily be 0-3. Sure they got out to a big lead on Houston when the Texans were still on their “we finally beat Indy” hangover, but what happened once they got down to business? Can’t use the word ‘massacre’ in connection with an Indian-nicknamed team, so we’ll just say they were soundly beaten like a redheaded stepchild’s rented mule. This weeks return to Philly for Donovan McNabb is interesting, but only in a "I wonder if he'll be hit with a battery?" sort of way.
Grain Belt – Seems like I should like it, but still tasting like crap, and I can’t put my finger on why
23. San Francisco (0-3) – Yes, the 0-3 team gets the nod over all those 1-2s, purely based on potential and the fact I’m not ready to give up on the Niners, the only remotely intriguing team in the NFC West. But then again, after watching them get THROTTLED in a game they really needed last week, that all might just be wishful thinking. So now it’s Atlanta on the road, Philly at home, and the prospect of 0-5? Yikes.
22. New York Giants (1-2) – Sticking with my theory that Tennessee can be a good team when Vince Young isn’t being asked to carry too much of the load, and if the Giants hadn’t show a display of anger management that Ron Artest would’ve found lacking, they still could’ve won this game. Would feel better about things if they didn’t play in a tough division with a nasty slate of games over the next month, but whatever.
Blue Moon – It’s selling, but I have no clue how. What is hell is that, a f***ing orange? I thought this was a bar, how did I stumble into soccer practice? You’re going to put it in the beer? Hold everything, what the hell is going on here???
21. Cardinals (2-1) – Getting a sinking feeling we’re looking at the first ever 7-9 division champ here, followed by the first mercy-rule stoppage in NFL playoff history. Sure that’s a long leap to make at this point, but a sweep of the Rams and Seahawks, along with a Niners split is 6 wins, and if those three teams don’t sweep Arizona, how do they get to 8? Oh well, at least Darwin will be happy, although survival of such an unfit team past the regular season wouldn’t please his namesake one bit, the NFL divisional structure is fighting nature here.
20. Seahawks (2-1) – Please San Francisco, the football viewing population of America implores you, get your act together right now!!! ONLY YOU CAN PREVENT THIS, PLEASE HELP!!!
19. Buccaneers (2-1) – I really kind of like this team, but unfortunately can’t see anything better than an 8-8 record, and even that’s probably a stretch. Gotta love those young squads pulling it together though, franchise QB possibly emerging, some fun wideouts to watch, good stuff. Of course I can’t actually hope you do well until your games stop getting blacked out, just a personal rule that a team must actually have fans before I can root for them to be happy. Then of course once an NFC team becomes too good, I’m obligated to start rooting against them due to Vikings-related conflicts. Come on Tampa, get behind this team so we can root for the ride up together before I hop off! And while you’re at it, would it kill you to go to a couple of Rays games?
Bud Light – Looks tempting, seems to be okay, but something’s just a little off
18. Minnesota (1-2) – Courtesy spot, will be 2-5 at the end of October. The old girl is starting to get in a bad way, and soon it will be time for Pa to take her out behind the shed and shoot her. Always sad, but she was suffering, try to think about the good times and prepare yourself mentally to say goodbye.
17. Cincinnatti (2-1) – Could go into the bye 4-1, but could also be favored in only 3 of their last 11. I like the odds of a team that’s old at the skill positions folding badly down the stretch.
(Sidenote: Since the Bengals are reality-show nuts these days, I’d like to pitch a premise that I think has some legs:
Carson Palmer shares a house with younger brother/backup QB Jordan, next door to a house inhabited by Terrell Owens and Chad OchoCinco, with the two homes linked by a shared pool/common area. Hilarity ensues when the straitlaced Palmer brothers are forced to deal with the highjinx of the two receivers, but things turn sinister when Jordan and Terrell enter into a plot to frame Carson and Chad for narcotics possession, in a ploy to increase their roles on the team.
Sounds like a winner, eh?)
16. Philadelphia (2-1) – Lions, Jaguars, no Bears? Oh my. I’m still waiting for the other shoe to drop and the Michael Vick Express crashing back to Earth. Somehow the Redskins are the worst defense in the league, so if the Eagles do lose this Sunday, it probably won’t be for lack of offensive production, but can this three-ring circus really go on all year? You’ve probably seen the stats, Vick’s current QB rating of 110.2 is almost 30 points better than his previous career best (set in 2002 by the way), and with that large of a sample size to compare to, it’s all about regression back to the mean. It’s like me getting laid, once it happens, you know it’s not happening again for a long, long time; if it happened twice in quick succession, you could pretty much write off the rest of the decade (or at least I think you could, would love to test that theory). The law of averages is pretty reliable here, just give it time to work.
15. Tennessee (2-1) – A quick haiku:
Vince Young is destined
To be Titans punchbowl turd
Fans will gouge out eyes
14. San Diego (1-2) – This placement begs the age-old power rankings question: Do you order teams based on what would happen if they played head-to-head, or how things will play out with their given schedules? It’s a tough call to make, I will only say that playing in the AFC West does have some influence on my thinking here, as the Chargers seem so-so, but have that warm nookie-blankie of a division to fall back on. Sure they lost at Seattle last week, but piling up 500 yards of offense and getting beat on two fluky kick returns doesn’t concern me too much, a bounce back should be forthcoming.
13. Dallas (1-2) – Still a believer in the Cowboys prospects, and think they win 3 out of their next 4 to right the ship. If they can take care of Tennessee at home in Week 5, a very winnable game considering their Week 4 Bye, then Dallas will be in the same spot it was last season with a 2-2 record through 4 games. They went 9-3 the rest of the way and entered the playoffs as the hottest team in football. Of course their early struggles helped set up their road shellacking at the hands of the Vikings, but that’s another conversation.
(Sidenote: This makes me think, who’s Tony Romo banging these days anyway? I feel like that should somehow be an influencing factor here. Solid analysis starts with proper research. At any rate, it probably doesn't matter too much, as we know who he'll be f***ing come playoff time. Cowboy fans.)
Pabst Blue Ribbon – Perplexingly better than it should be
12. Miami (2-1) – I love them, I love them not. I love them, I love them not. Pretty high to be ranking a team I’m just not sure about, but such are the weird vibes of the league this week. Gut feeling is the Dolphins end this year as the non-playoff team with the strongest “Team on the Verge” vibe. This makes sense, as it directly parallels my impression of Chad Henne as the league leader in the “QB on the Verge” category. Should at least keep their fans intrigued…and frustrated…and hopeful…and frustrated…and excited…and frustrated…
11. Kansas City (3-0) – It’s alive! Frankenstein’s monster, created in a opening-night rainstorm is now laying waste to the pleasant countryside. How long before the villagers gather their torches and pitchforks to run it down is anyone’s guess, but for the moment the Chiefs are one of only 3 undefeateds left in the league, and are potentially poised for a run. Sure, the next two games will probably be a bit of a hiccup, on the road at Indy and Houston, but after that, the schedule goes: JAX, BUF, @OAK, @DEN, ARI, @SEA, DEN, @SD, @STL, TEN, OAK. I’m sorry, WHAT???
(Sidenote: Did I mention I called them to be 9-7? Gotta keep touting the one correct prediction I made.)
Sam Adams - A cut above most, a cut below many, a nice reliable beverage that will do in a pinch...but you've had better
10. New England (2-1) – Can’t put them lower than #10 because they’re New England, can’t put them higher because Ryan Fitzpatrick winged it around to the tune of 247 and 2 last week en route to the Bills putting 30 points on the board. Not good, but downright scary when you consider what Mark Sanchez just did to them, the fact the aforementioned Henne and Phil Rivers loom in two of the next three games, and Peyton Manning may actually cause that rookies CBs head to explode like the guy from “Scanners” in Week 11. The good news? I have Brady and Moss on my fantasy team.
Sam Adams Oktoberfest - Superior to the original, but won't be here past November
9. Chicago (3-0) - As discussed in the opening, the Bears lose last Monday’s game 8 out of 10 times by my estimation, and coupled with the Calvin Johnson fiasco during Week 1, I just don’t buy them being all that good. Challenging for the playoffs? Sure. Winning the division? Not going to happen. Subpar wide receivers and a quarterback with a tendency to force the issue will ultimately result this team’s downfall.
Summit EPA - Now we're getting into truly fine territory; robust, hoppy, but ultimately not made for the long haul. You're going to need to change it up if you hope to see the end of the evening.
8. Baltimore (2-1) – Like the defense, Jets win looks more impressive by the week, but I’d really like to see Joe Flacco play well against a better defense than the Browns. Nice to see Anquan Boldin continuing his tradition of remaining a Top 20 fantasy wideout on the strength of 3 (and only 3!) monster games per season.
7. Houston (2-1) – Destroy Indy for a game, destroy Washington for a half, possible the Texans just thought they could hit the ‘Win’ button and cruise by Dallas in Week 3? I’m chalking it up to a desperate team playing a not-so-desperate team, and leaving it at that, with 3 winnable games coming up before their bye, and the rematch with Indy immediately following, this team could be in a nice spot to do big things.
6. Atlanta (2-1) – When you win a game that gets an opposing kicker fired, you are officially living a charmed life. Considering the loss to the Steelers in Week 1 is totally forgivable now, and the first win over the Saints have been notched, I can only come to one conclusion: San Fran will beat the tar out of the Falcons this week. Why? Well no real science to it, just the aforementioned desperate team factor, coupled with the fact that this situation has the reverse feel of last season’s meeting. The Niners came into a home game, riding high at 3-1, with a Brett Favre miracle as the only blemish on their record, coming off a 35-0 drubbing of St. Louis on the same turf a week earlier…and promptly got blown off the field 45-10. I remember it so well because it put me out of a survivor pool. Anyway, San Francisco crumbled after that, losing 3 more in a row and finishing 8-8; not saying that fate awaits the Falcons, but just a reminder, this stuff turns on a dime.
5. Green Bay (2-1) - #2 with a bullet as of 9:30 PM on Monday night, but another exhibition of dumb penalties and complete lack of running game are pushing them lower. Make no mistake, and it pains me to say this, the Packers will win the NFC North. Unfortunately for them, that’s going to be like standing outside a strip club with $10 in your pocket: You're getting in, but your not getting very far.
Coors Light - Nothing flash, fairly bland, but as consistent as the come and still delivers the goods
4. Indianapolis (2-1) - Ever have a buddy who told a great story, and would have everyone cracking up whenever he got into one? Unfortunately, this guy was a good friend, and eventually you'd spent enough time around him to hear every story he had to tell? So for those that haven't heard them, his stories are still the greatest ever, but for you, after the 3rd or 4th telling, you start to wonder why you thought the story was that great in the first place? In NFL parlance, that buddy is the Colts, they've been telling the same story for years now, and even though the do it better than anyone else, it's losing it's charm because you've heard it so often. Perhaps this year their defense makes things a bit more interesting and forces them to win with more flair, but until that happens, we'll put them here, just inside striking distance.
Stella Artois - No really my taste, cutesy glasses give it a trendy, upscale feel not typically associated with beer
3. New Orleans (2-1) - Stumbling out of the gate a bit is acceptable coming off a championship season, and the Saints have hardly fallen on their face. After all, they were on the other side of the kicking coin, the should-be 3-0 team that had an unfortunate hiccup cost them a win to a division rival at home. But the two wins haven't exactly been art either, no polls and style points in the NFL, just that the performance so far gives an inking of vulnerability. With that being said, I'll wait for them to get beat convincingly before knocking them down too far.
2. New York Jets (2-1) - Dang I was hoping Sanchez would stink. I also dislike Rex Ryan, Darrell Revis, their jerseys and most everything else about this team. About the only thing they have going for them is not being the Packers. But alas, excellence must be recognized, and so far this Jets team looks like the class of a weak division. We knew the defense and running game were good, so now with Sanchez making plays and another weapon coming back into the mix when Santonio Holmes returns, their pass offense will probably only improve. Dang.
Bell's Two-Hearted Ale - Bold and complex, not to mention it will **** you up in a hurry if you're not careful
1. Pittsburgh (3-0) - Exactly like I told you it would hap...er, strike that. Yeah, I said down year, but I also said if any team would absorb this body blow and keep moving forward, it was the Steelers. Their whole organization reminds me of MASH, when BJ Honeycutt stepped in for Trapper John and nothing missed a beat. In this analogy Alan Alda is the defense and Jamie Farr the running game. It's getting to the point where it seems like the Steelers could throw the names of 4 QBs into a hat on Saturday night and win with whoever was picked out.
(Sidenote: How great would it be if Unfrozen Caveman Quarterback returns and starts stinking up the joint to the point where a QB controversy ensues? That would be irony writ large. Now I know Steeler fans are probably too savvy to feed into it, and Tomlin definite too good a coach to give it any thought at all, but it would be worth a chuckle. Miss you Mike Tomlin, you were the one that got away, damn you Pittsburgh for being so decisive and correct in your hire. If Lesley Frazier wins a Super Bowl with another team three years from now, Childress is officially going to leapfrog Tom Shane into the #1 spot on my personal enemies list)
Great weekend coming up folks, excellent college football slate, baseball pennant races hanging in the balance, and of course another week of NFL wackiness, enjoy.
This week's picks:
New York Jets -5.5 over BUFFALO - Even with the new QB, can't do it
TENNESSEE -6.5 over Denver - Wish this game was at Denver
PITTSBURGH -1 over Baltimore - This game has 9-7 written all over it
CLEVELAND +3 over Cincinatti - Feeling the first Josh Cribbs explosion of 2010
GREEN BAY -14.5 over Detroit - Wanted to pick a Lions cover, but after last week's lost, Pack will be angry. Green Bay will be picked in 99% of survivor pools this week.
Carolina +13.5 over NEW ORLEANS - 23-10, Panthers D does just enough to cover by a hair
San Francisco +7 over ATLANTA - Wrote what I wrote above about this game yesterday, waffling like hell right now...screw it, outright win for the Niners
Seattle -1 over ST. LOUIS - Meh
JACKSONVILLE +7.5 over Indianapolis - Weird stuff happens to the Colts in Jacksonville, just a cover though, no upset
Houston -3 over OAKLAND - A little higher and I'd go Raiders
SAN DIEGO -8 over Arizona - Or just give Kansas City the division title now
PHILADELPHIA -6 over Washington - Like the Eagles to win, but I suppose The McNabb Revenge Factor could make things go screwy
Chicago +4 over NEW YORK GIANTS - Are the winds in the new stadium like there were in the old one? If so, this might be a tricky night game for Cutler to navigate.
New England -1 over MIAMI - Damn these 1 point spreads, feels like another big Henne game, but the Fish managed to blow last week, so...
Last week: 8-8
Season: 20-24-4
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Friday, September 24, 2010
Get your priorities straight
Far too much media attention is being paid this week to the Vikings rough start, and not nearly enough to yet another Twins triumph. The only team that ever delivers in this town did so once again by clinching their 6th division title in 9 seasons two nights ago, with two weeks and 11 games to spare. It wasn't nearly as exciting as last year's epic clinch in Game 163, but not having to play immediately after staggering off a plane half-buzzed should give them a far better chance of advancing.
And they had better advance.
Because now that the glee has worn off, there are only the prospects of securing home field (big deal, but almost done) and baseball's best record (not that big a deal) to keep people entertained. There is also a whooooole lot of time for people to rest players, get the rotation set and have people pick at nits. There will be no easy excuses this time, even if it's the big, bad Yankees who show up at Target Field for the first round. The Twins pitching may not be ideally suited for the postseason, but it was good enough to propel them to the best record in baseball over the last 3 months, so no passes will be given there.
It might be a bit strong to say a win is expected, given the history with the tough teams they'll be facing, but it's not too strong to say a loss would be profoundly disappointing. At this time last year, nearly everyone who watched this team thought they were dead, or at least very close. It was an undermanned squad relying on guile and pluck, who barely eeked out their postseason spot. Losing to the Yankees was not only expected, but almost acceptable, give the energy expended to fight through the regular season shorthanded. This situation, from the payroll, to the roster, to basically everything other than the lack of Justin Morneau, is completely different.
Thanks for an awesome season Twins, you're the only team I root for who consistently meets or exceeds expectations, you make the long, boring summer tolerable and I love you for it.
I just need a little more.
Onto this week's football picks, time to get back on the right side of .500:
Cincinnati -3.5 over CAROLINA - The Jimmy Clausen Era officially kicks off in Carolina, as well as in my fantasy football dynasty league. (For those of you that don't know, dynasty leagues are where you keep your entire roster from year-to-year, in order to pretend you're an NFL GM. This leads to situations in which you're breaking down the 3rd round of the NFL draft in mid-July, so you can find the next potential star who you're going to stash on your bench for 3 years. Shockingly, as cool as it sounds, discussing this in public is not a good way to pick up women. Again, the title of the blog is about more than sports teams.) To borrow a line from Eastbound & Down, my current favorite HBO series which resumes this Sunday: Stafford, you're ****ing out, Clausen's ****ing in!
NEW ORLEANS -4 over Atlanta - Waffled a bit here, and if the Falcons were playing at home I'd pick them to win outright. But given that the Saints just came off a tough road game in San Fran, where the conditions are never favorable if you're a high-flying passing attack, I see them being sharp this time around. Haven't seen the best offense in the league click a whole lot so far, but it's bound to happen soon, although Atlanta's possession running game is the best chance to keep them in check.
Detroit +11 over MINNESOTA - Don't think the Lions will win outright, but that's a lot of points for a team that has put up 19 total through two games. The Vikings offense should get untracked here and make some plays, because the Lions are still brutal on defense, but a couple of stops and a long screen-pass TD from Jahvid Best could be all the Lions need to make this too close for most Purple fans comfort.
BALTIMORE -11 over Cleveland - Lotta points here too, but the Browns are s****y, there hasn't been a more aptly named team since I christened a fantasy team The Travshamockery halfway through 2007.
Tennessee +3 over NEW YORK GIANTS - Awhile back I got sick of the "Life is like a box of chocolates" line to describe unpredictable situations, frankly the Forrest Gump drawl was the only thing that made it fun to say in the first place. But it was still a necessary, as we need a go-to phrase for conveying the unknown nature of some things. So to that end, I've updated the phrase: "Life is like a Thai hooker, you never know what you're going to get". And this my friends is a classic Thai hooker game, no idea what we've got here, so I'm taking the points.
Dallas +3 over Houston - The amazing thing about this season's first two weeks is that the Vikings aren't even the NFC playoff team that's in the worst shape. Sure Dallas has got a better offense at the moment and I'd give them the nod if a rematch of last year's divisional round game was happening, but unfortunately the schedule is doing them no favors. Going on the road to face the Texans is certainly no picnic, but I have to believe the Cowboys will find a way to win here, just too much riding on it for them not to. Their season is dead and coach probably fired at 0-3,if they've got any heart at all, they come to play this Sunday.
Pittsburgh -3 over TAMPA BAY - Lot of consternation here, and I can't believe I'm picking either of these teams to go 3-0. I mean at some point this QB thing has to catch up with Pittsburgh, right? If Charlie Batch wins on the road, it's officially time to put things to the ultimate test and dust of Kordell Stewart for next week? We're talking that level of ridiculousness here. Would I actually gamble on this game? No way, no how, but expecting the Steelers to score a defensive TD off a mistake by an inexperienced QB is like expecting a Nicholas Cage movie to suck, I like those odds.
NEW ENGLAND -14.5 over Buffalo - The Pats D looked lousy last week, and Buffalo kept it close for a half in Green Bay, but I see New England taking out some offensive frustration and posting a big number in this one. If the game was in Buffalo, you could sell me on a scrappy effort to keep the margin under double digits, but the Bills offense trying to operate on the road is something I want no part of.
San Francisco -3 over KANSAS CITY - Speaking of venting frustrations, this will be an angry Niners team on a mission, if I were Matt Cassel, I'd be thinking about upping the life insurance this week.
Washington -4 over ST. LOUIS - The Skins pass D was shredded last week, but that was Houston and this is St. Louis. On the bright side for the Rams, Sam Bradford is playing decently and, more importantly, still walking. So far, so good.
Philadelphia -3 over JACKSONVILLE - Not much to like about the Jags at the moment, including the fact that their team name practically begs the derisive use of the term Jag-offs by fans when the team is struggling. Here I thought Queens was a hanging curve, this one's slow-pitch softball.
San Diego -6 over SEATTLE - Maybe the Seahawks are good at home, probably doesn't make a difference against the Chargers though. It's a real treat when the season matching up the AFC and NFC Wests rolls around, especially if you're a fan of the late-afternoon nap.
Oakland +4.5 over ARIZONA - Like the Oakland D stepping up big here, can Bruce Gradkowski do enough with an easy schedule to make the Raiders intriguing? Was trying to think of a good QB who's last name started with P, so I could dub Gradkowski the Polish ______, but all I can think of is a first name in Peyton Manning. The Polish Peyton has a bit of a ring to it, but people would think he was a halfback. Oh well.
Indianapolis -6 over DENVER - The Broncos could be missing one or both starting cornerbacks this week, I don't have to tell you the Colts are bad team to be up against in that situation.
New York Jets +2 over MIAMI - No Revis is a problem, but I think the Jets D can compensate, have still seen nothing out of Chad Henne to back up the opinions (mine and many others) that he'd have a breakout year with Brandon Marshall to throw to. Long season, but I don't think he gets it going this week.
Green Bay -3 over CHICAGO - Love this as a Monday Night matchup, Soldier Field can be a quirky place to play, and the Bears are 2-0, but I watched them play Detroit week one, and they're not on the Packers level. Bloom comes off the Jay Cutler rose this week, perhaps only temporarily, but in significant fashion. I'm setting the INT over/under at 2 1/2, which way are you going?
And they had better advance.
Because now that the glee has worn off, there are only the prospects of securing home field (big deal, but almost done) and baseball's best record (not that big a deal) to keep people entertained. There is also a whooooole lot of time for people to rest players, get the rotation set and have people pick at nits. There will be no easy excuses this time, even if it's the big, bad Yankees who show up at Target Field for the first round. The Twins pitching may not be ideally suited for the postseason, but it was good enough to propel them to the best record in baseball over the last 3 months, so no passes will be given there.
It might be a bit strong to say a win is expected, given the history with the tough teams they'll be facing, but it's not too strong to say a loss would be profoundly disappointing. At this time last year, nearly everyone who watched this team thought they were dead, or at least very close. It was an undermanned squad relying on guile and pluck, who barely eeked out their postseason spot. Losing to the Yankees was not only expected, but almost acceptable, give the energy expended to fight through the regular season shorthanded. This situation, from the payroll, to the roster, to basically everything other than the lack of Justin Morneau, is completely different.
Thanks for an awesome season Twins, you're the only team I root for who consistently meets or exceeds expectations, you make the long, boring summer tolerable and I love you for it.
I just need a little more.
Onto this week's football picks, time to get back on the right side of .500:
Cincinnati -3.5 over CAROLINA - The Jimmy Clausen Era officially kicks off in Carolina, as well as in my fantasy football dynasty league. (For those of you that don't know, dynasty leagues are where you keep your entire roster from year-to-year, in order to pretend you're an NFL GM. This leads to situations in which you're breaking down the 3rd round of the NFL draft in mid-July, so you can find the next potential star who you're going to stash on your bench for 3 years. Shockingly, as cool as it sounds, discussing this in public is not a good way to pick up women. Again, the title of the blog is about more than sports teams.) To borrow a line from Eastbound & Down, my current favorite HBO series which resumes this Sunday: Stafford, you're ****ing out, Clausen's ****ing in!
NEW ORLEANS -4 over Atlanta - Waffled a bit here, and if the Falcons were playing at home I'd pick them to win outright. But given that the Saints just came off a tough road game in San Fran, where the conditions are never favorable if you're a high-flying passing attack, I see them being sharp this time around. Haven't seen the best offense in the league click a whole lot so far, but it's bound to happen soon, although Atlanta's possession running game is the best chance to keep them in check.
Detroit +11 over MINNESOTA - Don't think the Lions will win outright, but that's a lot of points for a team that has put up 19 total through two games. The Vikings offense should get untracked here and make some plays, because the Lions are still brutal on defense, but a couple of stops and a long screen-pass TD from Jahvid Best could be all the Lions need to make this too close for most Purple fans comfort.
BALTIMORE -11 over Cleveland - Lotta points here too, but the Browns are s****y, there hasn't been a more aptly named team since I christened a fantasy team The Travshamockery halfway through 2007.
Tennessee +3 over NEW YORK GIANTS - Awhile back I got sick of the "Life is like a box of chocolates" line to describe unpredictable situations, frankly the Forrest Gump drawl was the only thing that made it fun to say in the first place. But it was still a necessary, as we need a go-to phrase for conveying the unknown nature of some things. So to that end, I've updated the phrase: "Life is like a Thai hooker, you never know what you're going to get". And this my friends is a classic Thai hooker game, no idea what we've got here, so I'm taking the points.
Dallas +3 over Houston - The amazing thing about this season's first two weeks is that the Vikings aren't even the NFC playoff team that's in the worst shape. Sure Dallas has got a better offense at the moment and I'd give them the nod if a rematch of last year's divisional round game was happening, but unfortunately the schedule is doing them no favors. Going on the road to face the Texans is certainly no picnic, but I have to believe the Cowboys will find a way to win here, just too much riding on it for them not to. Their season is dead and coach probably fired at 0-3,if they've got any heart at all, they come to play this Sunday.
Pittsburgh -3 over TAMPA BAY - Lot of consternation here, and I can't believe I'm picking either of these teams to go 3-0. I mean at some point this QB thing has to catch up with Pittsburgh, right? If Charlie Batch wins on the road, it's officially time to put things to the ultimate test and dust of Kordell Stewart for next week? We're talking that level of ridiculousness here. Would I actually gamble on this game? No way, no how, but expecting the Steelers to score a defensive TD off a mistake by an inexperienced QB is like expecting a Nicholas Cage movie to suck, I like those odds.
NEW ENGLAND -14.5 over Buffalo - The Pats D looked lousy last week, and Buffalo kept it close for a half in Green Bay, but I see New England taking out some offensive frustration and posting a big number in this one. If the game was in Buffalo, you could sell me on a scrappy effort to keep the margin under double digits, but the Bills offense trying to operate on the road is something I want no part of.
San Francisco -3 over KANSAS CITY - Speaking of venting frustrations, this will be an angry Niners team on a mission, if I were Matt Cassel, I'd be thinking about upping the life insurance this week.
Washington -4 over ST. LOUIS - The Skins pass D was shredded last week, but that was Houston and this is St. Louis. On the bright side for the Rams, Sam Bradford is playing decently and, more importantly, still walking. So far, so good.
Philadelphia -3 over JACKSONVILLE - Not much to like about the Jags at the moment, including the fact that their team name practically begs the derisive use of the term Jag-offs by fans when the team is struggling. Here I thought Queens was a hanging curve, this one's slow-pitch softball.
San Diego -6 over SEATTLE - Maybe the Seahawks are good at home, probably doesn't make a difference against the Chargers though. It's a real treat when the season matching up the AFC and NFC Wests rolls around, especially if you're a fan of the late-afternoon nap.
Oakland +4.5 over ARIZONA - Like the Oakland D stepping up big here, can Bruce Gradkowski do enough with an easy schedule to make the Raiders intriguing? Was trying to think of a good QB who's last name started with P, so I could dub Gradkowski the Polish ______, but all I can think of is a first name in Peyton Manning. The Polish Peyton has a bit of a ring to it, but people would think he was a halfback. Oh well.
Indianapolis -6 over DENVER - The Broncos could be missing one or both starting cornerbacks this week, I don't have to tell you the Colts are bad team to be up against in that situation.
New York Jets +2 over MIAMI - No Revis is a problem, but I think the Jets D can compensate, have still seen nothing out of Chad Henne to back up the opinions (mine and many others) that he'd have a breakout year with Brandon Marshall to throw to. Long season, but I don't think he gets it going this week.
Green Bay -3 over CHICAGO - Love this as a Monday Night matchup, Soldier Field can be a quirky place to play, and the Bears are 2-0, but I watched them play Detroit week one, and they're not on the Packers level. Bloom comes off the Jay Cutler rose this week, perhaps only temporarily, but in significant fashion. I'm setting the INT over/under at 2 1/2, which way are you going?
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Hey bro, she wasn't even that hot, you could do way better man
So there was a very sad story today about Kenny McKinley, a wide receiver for the Denver Broncos who committed suicide. I’m embarrassed to say that when I read the headline, I thought it said “McKinnie” for a moment, and my heart leapt up at the thought of shedding the last 3 years of that contract. I’m going to hell, I know, certainly don’t need you to tell me.
After a weekend in which I attended two losses at the ballpark, yet another college football flub, then sat through one brutal half of Vikings football before mercifully having to leave for a brutal Twins game, I’m not mustering much positive to say. On the bright side, the two new stadiums in town do make for a much better aesthetic experience when the teams are playing ugly, at one point on Saturday afternoon I almost forgot I was at a Gopher football game. Then I remembered I was insufferably bored, and it all came back to me.
The Twins are victims of their own success, the Gophers of their own ineptitude and the Vikings seemingly of their own indifference. So far this has the look of an NFL team that thought the regular season was just there to keep you entertained until the playoffs came around. They should change the name of the team to the Minnesota Mimes for the way they’re going through the motions out there. But once again, on the bright side (sense the theme this week?), the loss last Sunday brought back two of my favorite rite of Minnesota fall: Outraged Purple fans and Chilly trying to polish a turd in his weekly press conference.
Childress really is an artist, I’m telling you. I know the head coach can’t come out and say “We sucked. This guy sucked, and that guy sucked, just about everyone sucked. Those who did not suck somehow enabled the sucking of others. As a matter of fact, this explanation sucks, and most of you people suck, so I’m going to get back to work figuring out how to end the suckage.” But wouldn’t it be refreshing if he did? Do you want to listen to 20 minutes on how the Will linebacker lost contain, or have some guy drop a few f-bombs, overturn a table and storm out? I suppose it is only week two, but most coaches still spew the same clichés when it’s week 12 and they just fell to 3-8, no personality there. Hope we get another Mike Gundy/Jerry Burns/Jim Mora moment this season, I want to see rending of garments, I want to see Chilly’s calm exterior crack and him scream “You think I have my head up my ass out there Bob, do you? DO YOU?? THAT’S RIGHT BOB, THAT’S WHY IT’S A GOOD THING IT’S BALD, I CAN SLIDE IT RIGHT ON UP THERE! RIGHT ON UP THERE BOB!!!” It’s like the commercial says, Be Legendary. Now go get yourself some Coors light royalties Brad.
And the fans! Oh my lord the football fans, they’re the best thing about sports in general. NFL fans make me feel like the rock my team’s church was built on every time they start calling in after a particular disturbing loss. A couple calls are well-thought out, most are hammered and reactionary; in other words, my kind of people! And it’s not just this city and my team, it’s everywhere, I’ve heard many of them, seemingly normal people who go mental 16 Sundays a year. God love em. Obviously the first choice is to have the Vikes beat the Lions this week and keep hope alive, but if they drop this very winnable game, my advice to you is the make sure you are near a radio in the hour following. Or perhaps stream it online later, either way, it will brighten your day.
Sure it probably won’t come to that, Detroit is still Detroit and the Vikings have had a knack for dropping games they should win/stealing games they should lose, which will probably help them down the line. But all I know is the unsettling vibes of the last month haven’t dissipated a bit, and we’re running the risk of things getting downright ugly. The Brett Favre indifference act has been seen before, and it never ends well. At the moment he’s carrying himself with a 1997 Cal Ripken air of “I’m not coming out…but I’m not really killing myself to prop this thing up either”. 2-5 through Week 8 seemed highly possible, and that Miami game was supposed to be one of those wins, yikes.
I say look at it this way Vikes fans, you married a woman who immediately went out and started banging other dudes, only you found out a couple weeks into the marriage, she was forthright about it and you got the whole thing annulled. Now sure you’re hurt, angry, feeling like you were duped, but you have to look at how much worse it could’ve been had this stuff gone on for awhile. As it is there are no kids involved, no divorce proceedings to go through, she gave you back your ring and moved out, it was even her parents that footed the bill for the wedding. Imagine how downright nasty a division of property, custody rights, etc. could’ve been had the whole charade gone on a few years before you discovered the truth. Then count yourself lucky you got out when you did, I mean that bitch could’ve taken your ****ing dog. Despite the fact you’ve been taken for a ride and may find it difficult to trust again, that will come back in time. In fact, chances are there are many people close to you who’ve been through this before, and if you couldn’t pull yourself up off the mat (see: January 2010), then you wouldn’t have gotten into this relationship in the first place.
(Frankly I don’t have much sympathy for you jackass, you knew she was a heart-breaking slut when you started dating her, don’t you remember the 90s? But of course I won’t say that when we’re out drinking and it comes up, I’ll just buy you a beer and agree how great she was, how you’ll never find another like her, yada yada yada. Start crying though and I’m out the ****ing door. And yes, we’re still talking about the Vikings…I think.)
Anyway, I guess what I’m saying is, we’ve got minimal investment to this point, and if it’s going to be bad, let’s shoot for rock-bottom here (T-Jack!). As I said earlier, nothing would please me more than a return to last season’s glory, but looking back on my own words from January 25th of this year, I’m reminded how unlikely that is to occur: “These last few months, the stars aligned for a very special season, one that is not likely to be repeated any time soon, even if the team returns intact. Winning in the NFL requires equal parts skill and luck, every year teams rise and fall on the whim of the latter, so forgive me if I can't get on board with the talk of a promising future I'm hearing today.”
Good luck boys, and if not, thanks Brett, I understand if you don’t want to get yourself killed. Then bring on The Destroyer of Football Worlds (I’m copyrighting that one for a t-shirt) and let the real fun begin. This bandwagon was getting a bit full anyway, I like my elbow room and can hearken back to the Sundays (not so far gone) when it was just me, Darwin, and a bunch of empty barstools watching a terrible team. Those days might be coming back, we’re not going anywhere. And always remember, the correct response to a Packer fan within the borders of Minnesota is “Oh yeah? Well how about you get out of my ****ing state? I don’t come to your ****ing state and rip on your ****ing team, so grant me the same courtesy as long as I allow you to be a guest here!” The rest of you are on your own, although something about sex with farm animals is usually a surefire winner.
On the bright side (one more time!), picks are improving, we’re comin!!! A respectable 8-6-2 last week that easily could’ve been better had Houston not pushed and the Raiders not lost in games they dominated. A couple more weeks like this the power will be back on and I can stop eating cold Spaghetti-Os every night for dinner, here’s to gambling!
Still alive through two weeks: Kansas City’s sleeper potential, the likely occurrence that Pittsburgh could emerge from the Roethlisberger suspension 3-1 (making me look dumb, as I thought they would, in the process), the re-emergence of Jay Cutler as a big-time QB (at least until he throws 5 INTs on Monday night against the Packers), the re-emergence of Vince Young as the league’s foremost Ben Stiller QB (great when nothing’s expected, falls apart when asked to carry the load), Cardinals fans returning to the teams from whence they came and the NFC West’s stranglehold on the “Worst NFL Division” crown.
Looking shaky: Double-digit Vikings wins (see above), New England’s D being division-champ caliber, any mention of “Ravens” and “explosive offense” in the same sentence, Dallas having the opportunity to build on its resume of playoff chokes and the phrase “Kevin Kolb believer”.
What was I thinking: Bills at 8 wins (looking more like my least-favorite Wild player, Halfthat), Bucs at 1-15 (would you buy that I just confused my ‘B’ teams here?) and the idea that Matthew Stafford would stay on the field for two years before getting seriously injured again.
After a weekend in which I attended two losses at the ballpark, yet another college football flub, then sat through one brutal half of Vikings football before mercifully having to leave for a brutal Twins game, I’m not mustering much positive to say. On the bright side, the two new stadiums in town do make for a much better aesthetic experience when the teams are playing ugly, at one point on Saturday afternoon I almost forgot I was at a Gopher football game. Then I remembered I was insufferably bored, and it all came back to me.
The Twins are victims of their own success, the Gophers of their own ineptitude and the Vikings seemingly of their own indifference. So far this has the look of an NFL team that thought the regular season was just there to keep you entertained until the playoffs came around. They should change the name of the team to the Minnesota Mimes for the way they’re going through the motions out there. But once again, on the bright side (sense the theme this week?), the loss last Sunday brought back two of my favorite rite of Minnesota fall: Outraged Purple fans and Chilly trying to polish a turd in his weekly press conference.
Childress really is an artist, I’m telling you. I know the head coach can’t come out and say “We sucked. This guy sucked, and that guy sucked, just about everyone sucked. Those who did not suck somehow enabled the sucking of others. As a matter of fact, this explanation sucks, and most of you people suck, so I’m going to get back to work figuring out how to end the suckage.” But wouldn’t it be refreshing if he did? Do you want to listen to 20 minutes on how the Will linebacker lost contain, or have some guy drop a few f-bombs, overturn a table and storm out? I suppose it is only week two, but most coaches still spew the same clichés when it’s week 12 and they just fell to 3-8, no personality there. Hope we get another Mike Gundy/Jerry Burns/Jim Mora moment this season, I want to see rending of garments, I want to see Chilly’s calm exterior crack and him scream “You think I have my head up my ass out there Bob, do you? DO YOU?? THAT’S RIGHT BOB, THAT’S WHY IT’S A GOOD THING IT’S BALD, I CAN SLIDE IT RIGHT ON UP THERE! RIGHT ON UP THERE BOB!!!” It’s like the commercial says, Be Legendary. Now go get yourself some Coors light royalties Brad.
And the fans! Oh my lord the football fans, they’re the best thing about sports in general. NFL fans make me feel like the rock my team’s church was built on every time they start calling in after a particular disturbing loss. A couple calls are well-thought out, most are hammered and reactionary; in other words, my kind of people! And it’s not just this city and my team, it’s everywhere, I’ve heard many of them, seemingly normal people who go mental 16 Sundays a year. God love em. Obviously the first choice is to have the Vikes beat the Lions this week and keep hope alive, but if they drop this very winnable game, my advice to you is the make sure you are near a radio in the hour following. Or perhaps stream it online later, either way, it will brighten your day.
Sure it probably won’t come to that, Detroit is still Detroit and the Vikings have had a knack for dropping games they should win/stealing games they should lose, which will probably help them down the line. But all I know is the unsettling vibes of the last month haven’t dissipated a bit, and we’re running the risk of things getting downright ugly. The Brett Favre indifference act has been seen before, and it never ends well. At the moment he’s carrying himself with a 1997 Cal Ripken air of “I’m not coming out…but I’m not really killing myself to prop this thing up either”. 2-5 through Week 8 seemed highly possible, and that Miami game was supposed to be one of those wins, yikes.
I say look at it this way Vikes fans, you married a woman who immediately went out and started banging other dudes, only you found out a couple weeks into the marriage, she was forthright about it and you got the whole thing annulled. Now sure you’re hurt, angry, feeling like you were duped, but you have to look at how much worse it could’ve been had this stuff gone on for awhile. As it is there are no kids involved, no divorce proceedings to go through, she gave you back your ring and moved out, it was even her parents that footed the bill for the wedding. Imagine how downright nasty a division of property, custody rights, etc. could’ve been had the whole charade gone on a few years before you discovered the truth. Then count yourself lucky you got out when you did, I mean that bitch could’ve taken your ****ing dog. Despite the fact you’ve been taken for a ride and may find it difficult to trust again, that will come back in time. In fact, chances are there are many people close to you who’ve been through this before, and if you couldn’t pull yourself up off the mat (see: January 2010), then you wouldn’t have gotten into this relationship in the first place.
(Frankly I don’t have much sympathy for you jackass, you knew she was a heart-breaking slut when you started dating her, don’t you remember the 90s? But of course I won’t say that when we’re out drinking and it comes up, I’ll just buy you a beer and agree how great she was, how you’ll never find another like her, yada yada yada. Start crying though and I’m out the ****ing door. And yes, we’re still talking about the Vikings…I think.)
Anyway, I guess what I’m saying is, we’ve got minimal investment to this point, and if it’s going to be bad, let’s shoot for rock-bottom here (T-Jack!). As I said earlier, nothing would please me more than a return to last season’s glory, but looking back on my own words from January 25th of this year, I’m reminded how unlikely that is to occur: “These last few months, the stars aligned for a very special season, one that is not likely to be repeated any time soon, even if the team returns intact. Winning in the NFL requires equal parts skill and luck, every year teams rise and fall on the whim of the latter, so forgive me if I can't get on board with the talk of a promising future I'm hearing today.”
Good luck boys, and if not, thanks Brett, I understand if you don’t want to get yourself killed. Then bring on The Destroyer of Football Worlds (I’m copyrighting that one for a t-shirt) and let the real fun begin. This bandwagon was getting a bit full anyway, I like my elbow room and can hearken back to the Sundays (not so far gone) when it was just me, Darwin, and a bunch of empty barstools watching a terrible team. Those days might be coming back, we’re not going anywhere. And always remember, the correct response to a Packer fan within the borders of Minnesota is “Oh yeah? Well how about you get out of my ****ing state? I don’t come to your ****ing state and rip on your ****ing team, so grant me the same courtesy as long as I allow you to be a guest here!” The rest of you are on your own, although something about sex with farm animals is usually a surefire winner.
On the bright side (one more time!), picks are improving, we’re comin!!! A respectable 8-6-2 last week that easily could’ve been better had Houston not pushed and the Raiders not lost in games they dominated. A couple more weeks like this the power will be back on and I can stop eating cold Spaghetti-Os every night for dinner, here’s to gambling!
Still alive through two weeks: Kansas City’s sleeper potential, the likely occurrence that Pittsburgh could emerge from the Roethlisberger suspension 3-1 (making me look dumb, as I thought they would, in the process), the re-emergence of Jay Cutler as a big-time QB (at least until he throws 5 INTs on Monday night against the Packers), the re-emergence of Vince Young as the league’s foremost Ben Stiller QB (great when nothing’s expected, falls apart when asked to carry the load), Cardinals fans returning to the teams from whence they came and the NFC West’s stranglehold on the “Worst NFL Division” crown.
Looking shaky: Double-digit Vikings wins (see above), New England’s D being division-champ caliber, any mention of “Ravens” and “explosive offense” in the same sentence, Dallas having the opportunity to build on its resume of playoff chokes and the phrase “Kevin Kolb believer”.
What was I thinking: Bills at 8 wins (looking more like my least-favorite Wild player, Halfthat), Bucs at 1-15 (would you buy that I just confused my ‘B’ teams here?) and the idea that Matthew Stafford would stay on the field for two years before getting seriously injured again.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Another rabbit out of the hat
First order of business is a congratulations to the Twins, who have made things academic in the AL Central with their sweep of the White Sox this week. Going into the series it looked like one win would be good enough, two wins would spell the beginning of the end and three would be certain doom for the Pale Hose. Fortunately the Twins got all three and with 90% of precincts reporting, Loserville News is ready to call the Central race for the hometown nine.
It's been another impressive regular season, and big props must go out to the entire organization, with the way they've been able to plug holes and battle back from adversity time after time. From losing their closer in spring training to losing their best hitter at midseason, the Twins have done what they always seem to do, find a way to keep winning games. Although I gave up on them roughly 73 times during the course of the season, I never stopped watching and hoping they'd find their way. Now that they have, reeling off the best record in baseball since the All-Star break, it's good to look back on the highs and lows of the season, and even better to look forward to the possibilities the future holds.
Because while all this winning has been great fun, there's still a big question to be answered: Are the Twins a good team, or just the best of a bad division? Sure they're not paired up with a bunch of total stiffs, but at the same time, the axis of power in baseball lies to the East (yes, I invoked that Germany-Japan WWII imagery on purpose), and it must be defeated before you can truly call this season a success. As I've said many times, division titles beat being a Royals fan, but at some point the promise of one of these seasons need to be realized. For the moment, the lead is at 9, the magic number at 8 and the best record in baseball only a half game away. It's going to be a good next two weeks, time to put this thing to bed, rest some players up, and get ready for the next step: Winning in October.
Onto this week's picks:
Last week: 4-10-2 (Kneecaps hurt every time I type that)
CAROLINA -3.5 over Tampa Bay - I refuse to believe the Bucs can go 2-0, especially with the second being a road win. Sure the Panthers QB might be injured, but that could be addition by subtraction.
DALLAS -7.5 over Chicago - Despite a great fantasy outing, I watched a lot of last week's Bears game and Jay Cutler is still a gunslinger without wide receivers. 89-yard TD passes to runnings backs not name MoJo happen once and only once per season. Throw in the fact that Jerry Jones no doubt greased a few palms around the league this week, and I just can't see the Cowboys falling to 0-2. Can they win by 8? Well that's going to be interesting, but I'm betting on a bounce back effort.
Pittsburgh +5.5 over TENNESSEE - All part of my nefarious plot to have my buddy Jay (huge Steelers fan) offering me money to pick against his team by the time week 10 rolls around. I whiffed on Atlanta, thinking Matt Ryan would remember how to throw, instead the Falcons ground game got eaten up by the Steeler D. I see a Week One redux here, with Vince Young tossing a costly INT when asked to make a big play to win the game. He'll win it, just for the worng squad.
MINNESOTA -6 over Miami - Or just fold the tents, seriously. For anyone who says you can't have a must-win game in Week Two, I beg to differ and offer Weeks 5-8 of the Vikings schedule as my main argument.
(Sidenote on Vincent Jackson: If this wasn't our all-in, one-time-only shot at a title, I'd want nothing to do with the guy. But because of that, and the fact it's not my money, I say why not. Come on Wilfs, we're going to build you a stadium anyway, you'll make it back, now pony up. To anyone who says a 2nd-round pick is too much, keep in mind that T-Jack will probably be playing QB next season and realize that there really is no future here. I'm sure whatever linebacker we could pick up next season will be the difference between losing 13-3 instead of 20-3, but who cares? Act now.)
ATLANTA -7 over Arizona - More about hoping to salvage a prediction than real belief in the Falcons, what happened to Matt Ryan anyway, he's like the Bizzaro Rich Gannon?
Kansas City +2 over CLEVELAND - Hey, what better place to keep the KC Sleeper Express rolling along? Sure it might be hard to pull off those return TDs every week, but some weeks you play Cleveland, which is pretty much the same thing. I'm not sure why Sam Cassell is playing QB for the Chiefs, but he can lead an offense, so why not? Plus he invented the Big Ball Dance, instant credibility.
Baltimore -3 over CINNCINATTI - By definition, the Bengals defense has to play better in week one. To say they could have a poorer showing would indicate that they'd have to actually show up, and the only way this week is any uglier than last is if they refuse to leave the locker room. Joe Flacco is not Tom Brady by any stretch, but I've seen 7-on-7 scrimmages with more QB pressure than what the Bungles managed to apply last week. Fugly stuff, truly.
Philly -6.5 over DETROIT - Well Detroit, you almost showed me something. Now you've got no QB and must feel like God is against your football team. So it's kind of like every year.
GREEN BAY -14 over Buffalo - The Bills have a sneaky-good pass D and the Packers are down their starting RB, but all that will serve to do is keep this one reasonable until half. Come on CJ Spiller, good time to do something ridiculous and trip up the Cheeseheads.
DENVER -3.5 over Seattle - Calling last week a fluke and going with the home team
OAKLAND -3.5 over St. Louis - Would never wager on either of these teams, and if you tied an enemy combatant to a chair in front of this game, the ACLU would file a brief opposing it.
NEW YORK JETS +3 over New England - Toughest game of the week, going with Revis bottling up Moss, Rex Ryan going into his Mad Scientist Blitz Handbook and the Jets grinding it out
Houston -3 over WASHINGTON - The Skins beat Dallas, defense looks sharp, but if not for a boneheaded play to end the first quarter, the Cowboys probably pull that thing out. Houston looks sharp early, here's comes a strong start, then swoon.
SAN DIEGO -7 over Jacksonville - I mean it's gotta be, right? I know nothing about this league if this doesn't happen.
COLTS -6 over New York Giants - Return of the Manning Bowl, I'd hit mute, but they'd know it somehow and compensate by showing me more Archie
SAN FRANCISCO +6 over New Orleans - Saints still win, but an angry Niner's team and tricky winds keep it close
It's been another impressive regular season, and big props must go out to the entire organization, with the way they've been able to plug holes and battle back from adversity time after time. From losing their closer in spring training to losing their best hitter at midseason, the Twins have done what they always seem to do, find a way to keep winning games. Although I gave up on them roughly 73 times during the course of the season, I never stopped watching and hoping they'd find their way. Now that they have, reeling off the best record in baseball since the All-Star break, it's good to look back on the highs and lows of the season, and even better to look forward to the possibilities the future holds.
Because while all this winning has been great fun, there's still a big question to be answered: Are the Twins a good team, or just the best of a bad division? Sure they're not paired up with a bunch of total stiffs, but at the same time, the axis of power in baseball lies to the East (yes, I invoked that Germany-Japan WWII imagery on purpose), and it must be defeated before you can truly call this season a success. As I've said many times, division titles beat being a Royals fan, but at some point the promise of one of these seasons need to be realized. For the moment, the lead is at 9, the magic number at 8 and the best record in baseball only a half game away. It's going to be a good next two weeks, time to put this thing to bed, rest some players up, and get ready for the next step: Winning in October.
Onto this week's picks:
Last week: 4-10-2 (Kneecaps hurt every time I type that)
CAROLINA -3.5 over Tampa Bay - I refuse to believe the Bucs can go 2-0, especially with the second being a road win. Sure the Panthers QB might be injured, but that could be addition by subtraction.
DALLAS -7.5 over Chicago - Despite a great fantasy outing, I watched a lot of last week's Bears game and Jay Cutler is still a gunslinger without wide receivers. 89-yard TD passes to runnings backs not name MoJo happen once and only once per season. Throw in the fact that Jerry Jones no doubt greased a few palms around the league this week, and I just can't see the Cowboys falling to 0-2. Can they win by 8? Well that's going to be interesting, but I'm betting on a bounce back effort.
Pittsburgh +5.5 over TENNESSEE - All part of my nefarious plot to have my buddy Jay (huge Steelers fan) offering me money to pick against his team by the time week 10 rolls around. I whiffed on Atlanta, thinking Matt Ryan would remember how to throw, instead the Falcons ground game got eaten up by the Steeler D. I see a Week One redux here, with Vince Young tossing a costly INT when asked to make a big play to win the game. He'll win it, just for the worng squad.
MINNESOTA -6 over Miami - Or just fold the tents, seriously. For anyone who says you can't have a must-win game in Week Two, I beg to differ and offer Weeks 5-8 of the Vikings schedule as my main argument.
(Sidenote on Vincent Jackson: If this wasn't our all-in, one-time-only shot at a title, I'd want nothing to do with the guy. But because of that, and the fact it's not my money, I say why not. Come on Wilfs, we're going to build you a stadium anyway, you'll make it back, now pony up. To anyone who says a 2nd-round pick is too much, keep in mind that T-Jack will probably be playing QB next season and realize that there really is no future here. I'm sure whatever linebacker we could pick up next season will be the difference between losing 13-3 instead of 20-3, but who cares? Act now.)
ATLANTA -7 over Arizona - More about hoping to salvage a prediction than real belief in the Falcons, what happened to Matt Ryan anyway, he's like the Bizzaro Rich Gannon?
Kansas City +2 over CLEVELAND - Hey, what better place to keep the KC Sleeper Express rolling along? Sure it might be hard to pull off those return TDs every week, but some weeks you play Cleveland, which is pretty much the same thing. I'm not sure why Sam Cassell is playing QB for the Chiefs, but he can lead an offense, so why not? Plus he invented the Big Ball Dance, instant credibility.
Baltimore -3 over CINNCINATTI - By definition, the Bengals defense has to play better in week one. To say they could have a poorer showing would indicate that they'd have to actually show up, and the only way this week is any uglier than last is if they refuse to leave the locker room. Joe Flacco is not Tom Brady by any stretch, but I've seen 7-on-7 scrimmages with more QB pressure than what the Bungles managed to apply last week. Fugly stuff, truly.
Philly -6.5 over DETROIT - Well Detroit, you almost showed me something. Now you've got no QB and must feel like God is against your football team. So it's kind of like every year.
GREEN BAY -14 over Buffalo - The Bills have a sneaky-good pass D and the Packers are down their starting RB, but all that will serve to do is keep this one reasonable until half. Come on CJ Spiller, good time to do something ridiculous and trip up the Cheeseheads.
DENVER -3.5 over Seattle - Calling last week a fluke and going with the home team
OAKLAND -3.5 over St. Louis - Would never wager on either of these teams, and if you tied an enemy combatant to a chair in front of this game, the ACLU would file a brief opposing it.
NEW YORK JETS +3 over New England - Toughest game of the week, going with Revis bottling up Moss, Rex Ryan going into his Mad Scientist Blitz Handbook and the Jets grinding it out
Houston -3 over WASHINGTON - The Skins beat Dallas, defense looks sharp, but if not for a boneheaded play to end the first quarter, the Cowboys probably pull that thing out. Houston looks sharp early, here's comes a strong start, then swoon.
SAN DIEGO -7 over Jacksonville - I mean it's gotta be, right? I know nothing about this league if this doesn't happen.
COLTS -6 over New York Giants - Return of the Manning Bowl, I'd hit mute, but they'd know it somehow and compensate by showing me more Archie
SAN FRANCISCO +6 over New Orleans - Saints still win, but an angry Niner's team and tricky winds keep it close
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Learnings from the weekend
The reasons why September is the greatest month of the year were out in full force this weekend, as college football, the NFL, MLB pennant races and perfect fall weather converged to form a phenomenal 48 hours. Sure, some of the action left a bit to be desired, but overall it was just the kind of weekend that makes you happy to be alive and proud to be an American. So, after the flurry of activity over the last 6 days, what do we know (or at least think we know) that we didn’t before?
If I gambled on NFL games, it would take me much longer to type these entries, due to the fingers I’d be missing on my left hand.
Despite what Dimitri, my former Estonian bookie used to say, winning bets on NFL spreads is not as easy as “being kick by mule”. Unless of course it’s hard to get a mule to kick and he was confusing me with some kind of Slavic slang. At any rate, the atrocious 4-10-2 record I managed to fashion in the season’s first week was the latest reminder that, unless I’d like to answer to the nickname “Gums” for the rest of my days, it’s best for me to stay away from NFL gambling of any kind. In fact, things didn’t look much better straight up, as 5 of the favorites I picked lost outright. The Jets (never liked Sanchez), Falcons (aforementioned “doubting Pittsburgh can make you look dumb” caveat) and Dallas (awful preseason, NFC East games are always tough) can be rationalized a bit. But the Colts showing a softer defensive line than the French army and Niners getting MANHANDLED in Seattle were truly shocking. I mean Houston is good, but were 1-for-the decade against Indy, and the Seahawks…well I just don’t even know where to begin there.
The only thing I can hang my hat on is calling the Kansas City upset, a pick I had so much faith in that I reversed it on Monday morning when putting in a loser’s pool pick I’d forgotten to call in Sunday. The logic of course being that I was wrong on every other instinct so far, so why trust my first thought here? I’m one more week like this from going Costanza on things and just picking the opposite of whoever I think will win.
Twins > White Sox, Part 10
It’s a damn shame the Chicago White Sox won the 2005 World Series, because if not for that, the Twins would have the largest edge in any rivalry other than Hammer v. Nail. Unfortunately, I’m on the record roughly a million times as saying I’d trade one championship for a hundred winning seasons, so taunting Sox fans would ring a bit hollow. Nevertheless, it does feel good to once again watch the Twins perform a smackdown on their Central Division rival, extending the division lead to 6 games before the final series of the year began, and winning another last night to stretch it to 7. The first few nails have been driven into the coffin, and over the next two evening, that puppy could be nailed shut and chucked in the ground. Once again us Twins fans are poised to be the ungrateful guest, happy to be invited to the party (playoffs), but complaining about the brand of beer your serving if it’s not to our liking (first-round ouster). Best record in baseball since the break and home-field advantage mean the bar has been raised. Now go finish off the Whities and keep this thing rolling into October.
The shot heard round Dinkytown
Considering I made the optimistic prediction that the Minnesota Golden Gopher football team would finish over .500 this season, I was a bit surprised to see them fall to a highly mediocre (even for I-AA) South Dakota Coyotes team this past week. Not shocked of course, because I’m not sure any loss could shock me. Even if you told me a high school team had beat them by a couple of touchdowns, I’d need to ask which team in order to properly calibrate my level of surprise. Given the loss to North Dakota State and near-miss by South Dakota State in the past couple years, you’re not exactly picking your jaw up off the floor when you hear it happened again. And that’s pretty sad, actually. The silver lining I suppose is that this loss most likely signals the end of the Tim Brewster Era after this season, barring a miracle upset or two. This week USC travel to Minnesota for the first time in 30 years, and based on the result, I’m guessing the Gophers won’t want to see them for another 30. Line for this game USC -13, can that possibly be right? Easy money if so…then again, see my NFL picks from last week…aw screw it, this isn’t the NFL, it’s the Gophers, bring it on!
First big college football Saturday is a dud
Sure it was a long shot, the idea that an underdog road team would pull off an upset in one of last weekend’s marquee matchups, but something close would’ve been nice. I know a lot of people think of Michigan-Notre Dame was a big game, but in my book I need little numbers next to the name of at least one team for the matchup to qualify as “big”. That one was most certainly good, but definitely not big, at least not currently. If Denard Robinson keeps ripping off 500 yard total offense every week, it might become more significant in retrospect, but that’s about as unlikely as Reggie Bush being asked to host an ethics seminar at USC during next offseason. Well, unlikely until he plays against the Gophers at least.
If I gambled on NFL games, it would take me much longer to type these entries, due to the fingers I’d be missing on my left hand.
Despite what Dimitri, my former Estonian bookie used to say, winning bets on NFL spreads is not as easy as “being kick by mule”. Unless of course it’s hard to get a mule to kick and he was confusing me with some kind of Slavic slang. At any rate, the atrocious 4-10-2 record I managed to fashion in the season’s first week was the latest reminder that, unless I’d like to answer to the nickname “Gums” for the rest of my days, it’s best for me to stay away from NFL gambling of any kind. In fact, things didn’t look much better straight up, as 5 of the favorites I picked lost outright. The Jets (never liked Sanchez), Falcons (aforementioned “doubting Pittsburgh can make you look dumb” caveat) and Dallas (awful preseason, NFC East games are always tough) can be rationalized a bit. But the Colts showing a softer defensive line than the French army and Niners getting MANHANDLED in Seattle were truly shocking. I mean Houston is good, but were 1-for-the decade against Indy, and the Seahawks…well I just don’t even know where to begin there.
The only thing I can hang my hat on is calling the Kansas City upset, a pick I had so much faith in that I reversed it on Monday morning when putting in a loser’s pool pick I’d forgotten to call in Sunday. The logic of course being that I was wrong on every other instinct so far, so why trust my first thought here? I’m one more week like this from going Costanza on things and just picking the opposite of whoever I think will win.
Twins > White Sox, Part 10
It’s a damn shame the Chicago White Sox won the 2005 World Series, because if not for that, the Twins would have the largest edge in any rivalry other than Hammer v. Nail. Unfortunately, I’m on the record roughly a million times as saying I’d trade one championship for a hundred winning seasons, so taunting Sox fans would ring a bit hollow. Nevertheless, it does feel good to once again watch the Twins perform a smackdown on their Central Division rival, extending the division lead to 6 games before the final series of the year began, and winning another last night to stretch it to 7. The first few nails have been driven into the coffin, and over the next two evening, that puppy could be nailed shut and chucked in the ground. Once again us Twins fans are poised to be the ungrateful guest, happy to be invited to the party (playoffs), but complaining about the brand of beer your serving if it’s not to our liking (first-round ouster). Best record in baseball since the break and home-field advantage mean the bar has been raised. Now go finish off the Whities and keep this thing rolling into October.
The shot heard round Dinkytown
Considering I made the optimistic prediction that the Minnesota Golden Gopher football team would finish over .500 this season, I was a bit surprised to see them fall to a highly mediocre (even for I-AA) South Dakota Coyotes team this past week. Not shocked of course, because I’m not sure any loss could shock me. Even if you told me a high school team had beat them by a couple of touchdowns, I’d need to ask which team in order to properly calibrate my level of surprise. Given the loss to North Dakota State and near-miss by South Dakota State in the past couple years, you’re not exactly picking your jaw up off the floor when you hear it happened again. And that’s pretty sad, actually. The silver lining I suppose is that this loss most likely signals the end of the Tim Brewster Era after this season, barring a miracle upset or two. This week USC travel to Minnesota for the first time in 30 years, and based on the result, I’m guessing the Gophers won’t want to see them for another 30. Line for this game USC -13, can that possibly be right? Easy money if so…then again, see my NFL picks from last week…aw screw it, this isn’t the NFL, it’s the Gophers, bring it on!
First big college football Saturday is a dud
Sure it was a long shot, the idea that an underdog road team would pull off an upset in one of last weekend’s marquee matchups, but something close would’ve been nice. I know a lot of people think of Michigan-Notre Dame was a big game, but in my book I need little numbers next to the name of at least one team for the matchup to qualify as “big”. That one was most certainly good, but definitely not big, at least not currently. If Denard Robinson keeps ripping off 500 yard total offense every week, it might become more significant in retrospect, but that’s about as unlikely as Reggie Bush being asked to host an ethics seminar at USC during next offseason. Well, unlikely until he plays against the Gophers at least.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Quick thoughts
Was going to post a few thoughts on last night's game, but Brent O, Denver's biggest Vikings fan beat me to the punch, since he pretty much sums it up for me, I'll just re-post his comment:
Overall thoughts:
I hate the Saints, I hate the City of NO. Now, it is not the teams fault or even the people of the city's fault. No, it is the fault of the media. I believe they are going a tish overboard with the how resilient and courageous the city and the team are. [use of the word tish there is like "Paris Hilton is a tish skanky" or "Greg Oden is a tish injury prone"] They got wet, there was some wind, now they are dry and the team won a super bowl....I get it SHUT UP. I would wish another rain storm on them if only it wouldn't mean I would have to hear about it for another 20 years.
The game itself was not fun. There were not more than about 10 minutes of the night where I was actually entertained. Now, it may be possible I am not in game shape yet, or my naturally short patience fuse has burned down to the nub, or maybe it was because it was the first game of the year so they did more, but in any case, the network went a tish (see above) overboard with how many commercials they ran! I could not stand having one play, commercial, play, commercial. They need to make a rule that there needs to be at least 6 plays from scrimmage before cutting to a crippled female cop chasing a leprechaun for the new upcoming series the network tries to shove down your throat.
And then the game itself when it was on made me wish I was watching commercials. I spent half the game day dreaming about how much fun I would be having doing other things. It is going to be a real challenge for me to watch every game like I have every year since I was born. At one point I was hoping for Farve to get hurt because at least laughing at T-Joke is entertaining.
Good:
EJ looked good
Camarillo looked solid for his 2 play
You have to be impressed with the way the DB's played vs the saints with only 3 CB's. Solid effort all the way around
AP looked like the typical early season AP
Shank looked great
Kick coverage was solid
Bad:
Sullivan was F**KING B R U T A L. He would have been better off snapping the ball and running to the sideline. That was one of the worst performances I have ever seen out of an NFL O-lineman
Berrian looked like throwing a ball to a 5 year old and watching him concentrate as hard as he can to catch it. Sometimes he holds on, but usually the throw ends up with the ball bouncing off his head.
Albert Young....for the love of god, you can not tell me you can't find someone walking the street that has more business being an NFL rb than this guy
Coaching (not going to explain this one, same thing for the last 4 years, no need to pile on yet again)
All WR's are freaking bad. Percy is not a WR, they put him out wide and that will never work. He can't do it. There is nothing else to throw to outside of Shank.
Longwell's kickoffs were shorter than a Cowboys playoff run and having an XP blocked in inexcusable
There is more Bads but this is as much time as I can put in to that turd of a game.
Thanks Brent, like I said, have to agree with most of your points, particularly on the network presentation. If you were actually interested in watching Dave Matthews sing a song last night, raise your hand and prepare for deportation off NFL fan island. Vikings got stuck with opening night this year, I wasn't happy about it for several reasons, primarily because I think it's a better played game if it happens two weeks from now. But it is what it is, and now it's over, so we can move on.
As far as the actual game went, I'm trying not to read too much into it. Liked the defense, hated the offense, and that's about it. The silver lining on things is that even in a loss, there's high comedy to be witnessed among the fanbase. Interesting moment last night at the bar when Vilma intercepted Favre after a questionable push of Shiancoe, one of the patrons chose to introduce the phrase "Katrina Call" into the Minnesota football fan lexicon, heard it a few more times as the game went on. Apparently 5 years and one Super Bowl is the official statute of limitations for hurricane-related sympathy. Doesn't offend me at all, just made me chuckle, we consider ourselves fairly highly evolved in this state, but NFL football reduces otherwise normal people into a howling mob, and I love it.
And don't even get me started on Vikings Fanline, on my worst day I am not that reactionary, makes me wonder how so many mental patients have access to a phone.
Other odds 'n ends:
Twins up 6 games with 21 to play, things are looking good. However, seems appropriate to remind everyone that they were sitting 6 1/2 back on this date last year, then lost 4 of their next 5, and STILL came back to win the division. This brings to mind a certain Harvey Keitel line from Pulp Fiction, and if you don't know which one, I'd be ashamed to call you a friend.
NFL picks for Week 1 (Home team in CAPS):
NEW ORLEANS -5.5 over Minnesota - Lost this one last night, these Vegas types apparently know what they're doing
Cincinnati +4.5 over NEW ENGLAND - Bengals cover, but lose by a FG
Oakland +6.5 over TENNESSEE - Another road team covering, but home team winning, can't give Vince Young this much credit just yet
JACKSONVILLE -3 over Denver - Defaulting to the home team
Cleveland +3 over TAMPA - 0-0 tie potentially in play
CHICAGO -6.5 over Detroit - Show me something Lions
Carolina +7 over NEW YORK GIANTS - Zero TDs in the preseason for the Panthers, so of course I have to expect them to score a bunch, that's how things work, not winning outright though
Atlanta -2 over PITTSBURGH - I like Dennis Dixon, but two points? Apparently there are a lot of Steelers fans who like to wager out there
Miami -3 over BUFFALO - Wrong team at the wrong time for the Bills, get a passing offense in town on a cold day and I'm back in their corner
Indianapolis -2.5 over HOUSTON - So far the 3-team parlay is shaping up Falcons, Colts, who will be third?
Packers -3 over Eagles - I know offenses might not be clicking week one, but a chance for an epic fantasy matchup here
Arizona -4 over ST. LOUIS - Wish you could by insurance on Derek Anderson going INT-crazy, like a blackjack bet
San Francisco -3 over SEATTLE - Ding! Third leg of the parlay appears. Three road dogs covering is probably a terrible sign, but the hell with it, I believe in the Seahawks stinkability
Dallas -3.5 over WASHINGTON - Tempting, but I need to see a wide receiver make a play for the Skins before I pick them to upset a good team
NEW YORK JETS -2.5 over Baltimore - Toughest internal debate of the week
KANSAS CITY +5 over San Diego - Upset special with Chiefs winning outright
Overall thoughts:
I hate the Saints, I hate the City of NO. Now, it is not the teams fault or even the people of the city's fault. No, it is the fault of the media. I believe they are going a tish overboard with the how resilient and courageous the city and the team are. [use of the word tish there is like "Paris Hilton is a tish skanky" or "Greg Oden is a tish injury prone"] They got wet, there was some wind, now they are dry and the team won a super bowl....I get it SHUT UP. I would wish another rain storm on them if only it wouldn't mean I would have to hear about it for another 20 years.
The game itself was not fun. There were not more than about 10 minutes of the night where I was actually entertained. Now, it may be possible I am not in game shape yet, or my naturally short patience fuse has burned down to the nub, or maybe it was because it was the first game of the year so they did more, but in any case, the network went a tish (see above) overboard with how many commercials they ran! I could not stand having one play, commercial, play, commercial. They need to make a rule that there needs to be at least 6 plays from scrimmage before cutting to a crippled female cop chasing a leprechaun for the new upcoming series the network tries to shove down your throat.
And then the game itself when it was on made me wish I was watching commercials. I spent half the game day dreaming about how much fun I would be having doing other things. It is going to be a real challenge for me to watch every game like I have every year since I was born. At one point I was hoping for Farve to get hurt because at least laughing at T-Joke is entertaining.
Good:
EJ looked good
Camarillo looked solid for his 2 play
You have to be impressed with the way the DB's played vs the saints with only 3 CB's. Solid effort all the way around
AP looked like the typical early season AP
Shank looked great
Kick coverage was solid
Bad:
Sullivan was F**KING B R U T A L. He would have been better off snapping the ball and running to the sideline. That was one of the worst performances I have ever seen out of an NFL O-lineman
Berrian looked like throwing a ball to a 5 year old and watching him concentrate as hard as he can to catch it. Sometimes he holds on, but usually the throw ends up with the ball bouncing off his head.
Albert Young....for the love of god, you can not tell me you can't find someone walking the street that has more business being an NFL rb than this guy
Coaching (not going to explain this one, same thing for the last 4 years, no need to pile on yet again)
All WR's are freaking bad. Percy is not a WR, they put him out wide and that will never work. He can't do it. There is nothing else to throw to outside of Shank.
Longwell's kickoffs were shorter than a Cowboys playoff run and having an XP blocked in inexcusable
There is more Bads but this is as much time as I can put in to that turd of a game.
Thanks Brent, like I said, have to agree with most of your points, particularly on the network presentation. If you were actually interested in watching Dave Matthews sing a song last night, raise your hand and prepare for deportation off NFL fan island. Vikings got stuck with opening night this year, I wasn't happy about it for several reasons, primarily because I think it's a better played game if it happens two weeks from now. But it is what it is, and now it's over, so we can move on.
As far as the actual game went, I'm trying not to read too much into it. Liked the defense, hated the offense, and that's about it. The silver lining on things is that even in a loss, there's high comedy to be witnessed among the fanbase. Interesting moment last night at the bar when Vilma intercepted Favre after a questionable push of Shiancoe, one of the patrons chose to introduce the phrase "Katrina Call" into the Minnesota football fan lexicon, heard it a few more times as the game went on. Apparently 5 years and one Super Bowl is the official statute of limitations for hurricane-related sympathy. Doesn't offend me at all, just made me chuckle, we consider ourselves fairly highly evolved in this state, but NFL football reduces otherwise normal people into a howling mob, and I love it.
And don't even get me started on Vikings Fanline, on my worst day I am not that reactionary, makes me wonder how so many mental patients have access to a phone.
Other odds 'n ends:
Twins up 6 games with 21 to play, things are looking good. However, seems appropriate to remind everyone that they were sitting 6 1/2 back on this date last year, then lost 4 of their next 5, and STILL came back to win the division. This brings to mind a certain Harvey Keitel line from Pulp Fiction, and if you don't know which one, I'd be ashamed to call you a friend.
NFL picks for Week 1 (Home team in CAPS):
NEW ORLEANS -5.5 over Minnesota - Lost this one last night, these Vegas types apparently know what they're doing
Cincinnati +4.5 over NEW ENGLAND - Bengals cover, but lose by a FG
Oakland +6.5 over TENNESSEE - Another road team covering, but home team winning, can't give Vince Young this much credit just yet
JACKSONVILLE -3 over Denver - Defaulting to the home team
Cleveland +3 over TAMPA - 0-0 tie potentially in play
CHICAGO -6.5 over Detroit - Show me something Lions
Carolina +7 over NEW YORK GIANTS - Zero TDs in the preseason for the Panthers, so of course I have to expect them to score a bunch, that's how things work, not winning outright though
Atlanta -2 over PITTSBURGH - I like Dennis Dixon, but two points? Apparently there are a lot of Steelers fans who like to wager out there
Miami -3 over BUFFALO - Wrong team at the wrong time for the Bills, get a passing offense in town on a cold day and I'm back in their corner
Indianapolis -2.5 over HOUSTON - So far the 3-team parlay is shaping up Falcons, Colts, who will be third?
Packers -3 over Eagles - I know offenses might not be clicking week one, but a chance for an epic fantasy matchup here
Arizona -4 over ST. LOUIS - Wish you could by insurance on Derek Anderson going INT-crazy, like a blackjack bet
San Francisco -3 over SEATTLE - Ding! Third leg of the parlay appears. Three road dogs covering is probably a terrible sign, but the hell with it, I believe in the Seahawks stinkability
Dallas -3.5 over WASHINGTON - Tempting, but I need to see a wide receiver make a play for the Skins before I pick them to upset a good team
NEW YORK JETS -2.5 over Baltimore - Toughest internal debate of the week
KANSAS CITY +5 over San Diego - Upset special with Chiefs winning outright
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Once more into the breach dear friends: 2010 NFL Preview
Was going to go with "Banging my head against the wall: 2010 NFL Preview", but decided to class it up with a Shakespeare reference instead. The Bard and the NFL, say what you will about me, but never that I'm not eclectic.
This title, lifted from Henry V, references what's regarded by many to be the most famous battle speech in history. Personally I opt for the "we will rip out their living guts and use them to grease the treads of our tanks" speech from Patton, but splitting hairs between the two isn't the point. Either one appropriately conveys the point I'm trying to make: The NFL season is a war.
This metaphor plays itself out in all parts of the game, from the belligerent language it uses, to the fact that the victor is often simply the side with the most bodies standing upright, everything about the next 17 weeks of football parallels this idea. Bill Simmons, my favorite sportswriter and the closest thing I have to an idol, wrote a brilliant column last week equating NFL QBs to war films. At the risk of stepping on his touchdown call, I will cease analogizing along these lines, just know that for the last week I’ve been feeling like I was about to storm a beach.
(Quick sidenote on Simmons, one of the items on my bucket list is to get an email printed in one of the reader mailbags he periodically runs, so far I’ve been unsuccessful in the few attempts that I’ve made. The most recent attempt is a play off his classic “Levels of Losing” column, which if you haven’t read, click the link and take 10 minutes to do so. Not only is it required reading for any sportsfan, it will put the following paragraph in the proper context. Anyway, his this week’s shot at mailbag immortality:
“Can I put in a request for yet another Level of Losing? I’d like to call this one The Armageddon, since it’s like being told that a comet is on a collision course with your team’s season and will snuff out all life as you know it. (Thought about calling it The Deep Impact, since it was the better film, but that sounded too much like porn) Although things seem fine at the moment, there is no escaping the inevitable truth that the end is coming, and you don’t have any rockets to go blast it out of the sky. I’m currently experiencing this in both football and baseball. The Twins will probably find their way into the playoffs again, only to be bashed into smithereens by the evil comet (Yankees). The Vikings are being buried by key injuries and have their own comet looming (Tarvaris Jackson), who’s appearance also spells doom. The games haven’t even been played yet, but it feels like a foregone conclusion, I’m now suffering losses preemptively. Might be time to take a break from sports.”)
But today, gameday, is oddly serene. It’s not that I feel any better about the Vikings prospects, either for tonight’s game or the season, it’s just that I can’t muster any negativity when my old friend NFL football is walking back through the door. Would it be more fun if I didn’t have to spend the last week hearing about tonight’s matchup? Watching highlights from last year’s NFC title game debacle on a loop? Sure, but that doesn’t change the fact that I will wake up this Sunday, look out at a glorious fall morning, and know that 9 hours of football is on tap. I mean I set a fantasy lineup 5 minutes ago, how could I be upset?
The simple truth is, when you’re living and dying with the Vikings, you’re already dead, at least through all history to date. Some seasons start with low expectations and blossom into unexpected greatness, like last one. Some start with high hopes that get dashed right out of the gate. Some start with Tarvaris Jackson and inspire only indifference. As a diehard fan, you buy the ticket and take the ride, wherever it goes. Reading back through the post I wrote following last year’s NFC Championship game, it would be hard to claim I was somehow about the fray on all of this. Admittedly, I was crushed, and don’t imagine any fan of the team could really feel differently. But what I can do differently, and have improved on a bit in recent years, is save those hopeless moments for the big stuff, and not sweat the small. Anyone who receives my in-game text messages might beg to differ, but I swear it’s true, I’m getting better :)
Because there have been much darker times to be a Vikings fan. Save for last year, there’s a higher ceiling for this team than any that took the field from 2006-2008. Some of them produced results, but nobody went into those years saying “Look out for the Vikings”; in fact, looking objectively at the 2002-2008, it was really a pretty mediocre run. Culpepper-to-Moss was awesome, the defense was putrid, and the team finished around .500, not exactly something to pine for over what we’ve got going now. I guess what I’m saying here Vikes fans, is that even though we were a better team a month ago, we’ve got the chance to be that team again in two months. So let’s hold the fort through this brutal first half, keep Favre upright and see where this thing takes us. Nothing about this league is predictable.
So of course, I’m doing predictions!
AFC West
Gets the nod over the NFC West in the bad division derby only because there are a couple of up-and-coming teams here that are fun to think about on paper. We know that in any given season, there will be 3 or 4 teams that significantly outperform expectations, and as many who fall below. This division looks to be home of one of each.
San Diego (9-7) – The specter of a defensive end running around the backup left tackle to crumple Philip Rivers like an accordion is playing into this pick, but the buttery-soft early season schedule sets up so nice that I think the new regulars will be able to ease into things. Weakest division champ in my mind.
Kansas City (9-7) – That’s right, we’ve got an outperformer alert! Not much of a sleeper due to the steam their getting, and the first half of the schedule doesn’t do them any favors, but if the Chiefs can get through the first half of their schedule at .500, they should be on their way to a nice final record. Arrowhead used to be one of the most feared places in the league to play, so a KC team challenging for the playoffs could put a charge into the crowd and bring some of that back late in the year.
Oakland (6-10) – Did I miss the part where Jason Campbell was good? Like everyone else, I didn’t watch a lot of Redskins games the past couple of years, but I’ve seen enough to be unimpressed. Jason Campbell is better than JaMarcus Russell like a colonoscopy is better than a vasectomy, I don’t want either.
Denver (5-11) – Thud. Kyle Orton is a winner, it’s true, one of the more perplexing things I’ve seen in my time as an NFL fan. But the only guy who makes plays on the team is dinged up, the best O-lineman missed time, the best defensive player is hurt and the best offensive player from last year is in Miami. Maybe I’m missing something, but what’s to like here?
AFC South
Same old story, Indy is a lock for the playoffs, Jacksonville is locked out and the Double Ts (Titans & Texans) are all over the map. Time to flip a coin for second place.
Indianapolis (12-4) – Most boring good team in the league to watch, although it is kind of fun to watch defensive players running into each other when Manning is doing his pre-snap routine, some of them must be winded before the ball is in motion.
Houston (10-6) – Not only did it agree with my coin flip, but in the battle of mercurial teams, give me the injury-prone QB over the headcase one anytime. Too much offense on this team, just need a bit of D at the right times.
Tennessee (8-8) – For those of you scoring at home, Expectations are currently 5-0 against Vince Young since he left college, and they’re a -120 early line favorite heading into this season. It’s weird, if he was their backup and you told me he’d be playing by game 3, I’d probably add a win or two, such is the odd nature of NFL QBs.
Jacksonville (7-9) – MoJo and not much else, a question to ponder: Is David Garrard good? Stats are always nice, receivers always non-existent, if you put him on a team with some competent players, what’s the ceiling? I say postseason berth, followed by Aaron Brooks-like meltdown.
AFC North
Only thing we know for sure, pencil the Browns into the #4 spot.
Baltimore (11-5) – Dig the offseason moves, but think the defense will suffer a bit with a thin secondary. Once Ed Reed leaves the field, which he will at some point, this team has shown it can get exposed in the passing game. The offense should be able to compensate, but there’s a simple formula: Take 16 games and subtract a victory for each game you expect Anquan Boldin to miss. Obviously I’ve got him at 5.
Cincinnati (8-8) – I’ve flip-flopped on this team roughly 200 times in the past couple of weeks, eventually falling on the side of a letdown season. Sure their final record will only be one game worse than 2009, but with the strength of the AFC East, that means no playoffs. What can I say, just don’t like the prospects of the offense and think the D is good, not great.
Pittsburgh (7-9) – Terribly risky to bet against what has been historically been one of the league’s most resilient teams, but it’s been a rough ride. Could’ve been an awesome 3-team race here, unfortunately Unfrozen Caveman Quarterback had to go trolling for college chicks and get suspended. By itself, this could’ve been absorbed, but throw in the loss of the team’s best O-lineman and I’m feeling a down year for the Steelers. I’m well aware that this is the pick most likely to make me look stupid though, they’re a scrappy team going back as far as I can remember.
Cleveland (3-13) – See Raiders synopsis, adding Jake Delhomme is the answer? Only if the question is: How do we ensure Jake Locker plays here next season?
AFC East
Three teams that are good and one I think could be sneaky good. You heard me right, I’m about to praise the Bills.
New England (11-5) – Return to glory here, even if they don’t have a defense. I grabbed the Brady-Moss connection wherever I could in fantasy leagues, so obviously feeling a huge offensive year. Only question is can the strong pass defenses in the division slow them up enough? I say no.
New York Jets (9-7) – Overhyped based on a good playoff run, this team has a great defense, but will hit some bumps in the road as it tries to transition Mark Sanchez from a game manager to a game winner. Shonn Greene looked great at the end of last season, but replacing Thomas Jones with LaDanian Tomlinson was a mistake in my mind, nobody ever wants Jones, but all he does is produce.
Miami (9-7) – Very excited for the Chad Henne Era now that Brandon Marshall is in the fold (and no, it’s not only because he’s on my Dynasty League team). The Fish have a top-notch running game and passable D, some big plays from receivers were all that was missing last season, I think they get enough this year to flip 7-9 into 9-7.
Buffalo (8-8) – Well hey it’s only a 2-game improvement, but what did you expect, playoffs? CJ Spiller has been a favorite of mine the last couple years at Clemson and the Bills D is an underrated unit. Their only problem is being stuck in the AFC East, instead of one of the Wests…oh yeah, and QB, that could be an issue.
NFC West
Worst. Division. Ever. What was wrong with 3 divisions anyway? 3 champs, 3 wild cards, none of this “terrible division champs sneaking into the playoffs with an 8-8 record” garbage. Is it going to take a 7-9 division champion getting a home playoff game against an 11-5 wild card before this gets fixed? Anyway, somebody’s gotta win this thing.
San Francisco (10-6) – Yes, I have them at 10-6, but a big part of that is 6 games against the rest of the division. Any pick that relies heavily on Alex Smith’s arm and Frank Gore’s knees is by definition, risky, but I think a stellar D and non-conference swing through the AFC West makes this team a lock for double-digit wins. And in a division where the only competent team cut their assumed starting QB last week, that’s more than enough.
Arizona (7-9) – Quick story about Cardinals fans. Having family in Arizona, and being a sports nut, the first thing I check when visiting is who the local teams will be matched up against while I’m in town. The Cardinals website used the have a handy dandy ticket exchange where the general public could buy seats from season ticketholders at face value. This made perfect sense because the general composition of sportsfans in warm weather cities is mostly transplants who selected a team long ago. The New York transplant who has Cards tickets might want to see his team come to town, as well as the Cowboys or Eagles, but no way he’s not staying home to watch his Giants when the Seahawks are in town. Following the Super Bowl run two years ago though, that all changed, and now the Cardinals ticket exchange is the exclusive domain of season ticketholders. I’m going to predict that two years from now, members of the general public will once again be able to pick up cheap ducats in this fashion.
Seattle (4-12) – Matt Hasselbeck’s injury history + Pete Carroll’s coaching history = Just good enough to not be ungodly awful. Sure is a drag when everyone is allowed to pay their players, eh Pete?
St. Louis (3-13) – Anything not involving the words “Sam Bradford” and “season-ending surgery” should be considered a success here.
NFC South
An elite team, a team on the verge, a team past it’s window and a team that makes its fans want to jump out of a window, this should be pretty straightforward.
New Orleans (12-4) – Great early season setup to the schedule has them running out to an 8-1 start into the Week 9 bye, before a slate of tough road games (@DAL, @BAL, @ATL, @CIN) conspires to trip them up late in the season. Post-Super Bowl hangover and defensive injuries could be setbacks, but the way they can score, it’s tough to pick against them.
Atlanta (10-6) – In typical bizarre Falcons fashion, I see a 9-4 record and challenge to the Saints for the division heading into Week 15 at Seattle. A combo platter of the dreaded East-to-West travel and looking ahead to New Orleans the following week causes them to lose a bizarre game to the Seahawks. After which they will promptly come home and beat the Saints to keep hope alive, then blow their finale versus Carolina to extinguish said hope. Because that’s the kind of stuff that happens in the NFL.
Carolina (6-10) – Like the run game, like the D, like the way Steve Smith looked rejuvenated with Matt Moore at QB the last few weeks of 2009, but this looks like a .500 team all the way and the schedule pushes them lower still.
Tampa Bay (1-15) – Because even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile.
NFC North
Too much tied up emotionally here to hope for much accuracy here, but oh well.
Green Bay (12-4) – Pains me to say it, but I think they will be the class of the league and potentially the NFC. Kind of the Patriots West in terms of the current crop of D-backs being able to stop people, but if they get some veterans healthy as the season goes on, look out. And no, this is not an attempt at a reverse jinx, just an honest appraisal.
Minnesota (10-6) – Absolute must to find a way to wring 3 wins out of the first 7 games, a brutal stretch that includes trips to the Saints, Jets, Patriots and Packers, as well as the Cowboys at home. As I said, find a way to win 3 and keep Favre on the field, we should be okay here.
Chicago (8-8) – I’m buying into the Cutler/Martz thing a bit, even if it does end in the first-ever 30/30 season by a QB. This season will tell us with some certainty whether Jay Cutler is actually good, or if he was just being propped up by Brandon Marshall, we shall see.
Detroit (5-11) – Friskiness alert! This should draw a few Lions fans back in, then they’ll go 8-8 next year, true hype will build and Matthew Stafford will suffer a career-threatening in Game 1 of the 2012 season. Don’t say I didn’t warn you Lions fans, you should know better now anyway.
NFC East
My pick for the best division in football, getting the slight nod over the AFC East now that the Redskins have a legit (albeit already gimpy) QB. The games between these teams are rarely bad, making their frequent appearances in prime time the one positive impact East Coast Bias has had on sports.
Dallas (11-5) – Followed by postseason flameout.
New York Giants (10-6) –Wracked by defensive injuries last year and forced to throw too much because of it, I think the Giants get healthy and reestablish their bread and butter this season. Could be an intriguing offense if the RBs can stay healthy and the young receiving corps develops as expected.
Philadelphia (9-7) – I’m a Kevin Kolb believer, but still think the Eagles running game is going to lack something fierce with LeSean McCoy as its top back. Just didn’t see anything out of him last year that made me think he’s going to get better, and if he can’t pickup blitzes in this offense, get ready for a lot of Leonard Weaver.
Washington (6-10) – Couple epic McNabb performances, he beats Philly once, misses some games due to injury, same as it ever was.
AFC Wild Card – Houston over San Diego, Baltimore over New York Jets
NFC Wild Card – New York Giants over Dallas, Minnesota over San Francisco
AFC Divisional – Indianapolis over Houston, Baltimore over New England
NFC Divisional – Green Bay over New York Giants, New Orleans over Minnesota
AFC Championship – Indianapolis over Baltimore
NFC Championship – Green Bay over New Orleans
Super Bowl – Green Bay over Indianapolis
(Now that might’ve been a reverse jinx)
So there they are, my thoughts on the season, be sure to savor every bit of it, because based on the news reports, it’s no certainty we’ll be seeing another one for some time.
This title, lifted from Henry V, references what's regarded by many to be the most famous battle speech in history. Personally I opt for the "we will rip out their living guts and use them to grease the treads of our tanks" speech from Patton, but splitting hairs between the two isn't the point. Either one appropriately conveys the point I'm trying to make: The NFL season is a war.
This metaphor plays itself out in all parts of the game, from the belligerent language it uses, to the fact that the victor is often simply the side with the most bodies standing upright, everything about the next 17 weeks of football parallels this idea. Bill Simmons, my favorite sportswriter and the closest thing I have to an idol, wrote a brilliant column last week equating NFL QBs to war films. At the risk of stepping on his touchdown call, I will cease analogizing along these lines, just know that for the last week I’ve been feeling like I was about to storm a beach.
(Quick sidenote on Simmons, one of the items on my bucket list is to get an email printed in one of the reader mailbags he periodically runs, so far I’ve been unsuccessful in the few attempts that I’ve made. The most recent attempt is a play off his classic “Levels of Losing” column, which if you haven’t read, click the link and take 10 minutes to do so. Not only is it required reading for any sportsfan, it will put the following paragraph in the proper context. Anyway, his this week’s shot at mailbag immortality:
“Can I put in a request for yet another Level of Losing? I’d like to call this one The Armageddon, since it’s like being told that a comet is on a collision course with your team’s season and will snuff out all life as you know it. (Thought about calling it The Deep Impact, since it was the better film, but that sounded too much like porn) Although things seem fine at the moment, there is no escaping the inevitable truth that the end is coming, and you don’t have any rockets to go blast it out of the sky. I’m currently experiencing this in both football and baseball. The Twins will probably find their way into the playoffs again, only to be bashed into smithereens by the evil comet (Yankees). The Vikings are being buried by key injuries and have their own comet looming (Tarvaris Jackson), who’s appearance also spells doom. The games haven’t even been played yet, but it feels like a foregone conclusion, I’m now suffering losses preemptively. Might be time to take a break from sports.”)
But today, gameday, is oddly serene. It’s not that I feel any better about the Vikings prospects, either for tonight’s game or the season, it’s just that I can’t muster any negativity when my old friend NFL football is walking back through the door. Would it be more fun if I didn’t have to spend the last week hearing about tonight’s matchup? Watching highlights from last year’s NFC title game debacle on a loop? Sure, but that doesn’t change the fact that I will wake up this Sunday, look out at a glorious fall morning, and know that 9 hours of football is on tap. I mean I set a fantasy lineup 5 minutes ago, how could I be upset?
The simple truth is, when you’re living and dying with the Vikings, you’re already dead, at least through all history to date. Some seasons start with low expectations and blossom into unexpected greatness, like last one. Some start with high hopes that get dashed right out of the gate. Some start with Tarvaris Jackson and inspire only indifference. As a diehard fan, you buy the ticket and take the ride, wherever it goes. Reading back through the post I wrote following last year’s NFC Championship game, it would be hard to claim I was somehow about the fray on all of this. Admittedly, I was crushed, and don’t imagine any fan of the team could really feel differently. But what I can do differently, and have improved on a bit in recent years, is save those hopeless moments for the big stuff, and not sweat the small. Anyone who receives my in-game text messages might beg to differ, but I swear it’s true, I’m getting better :)
Because there have been much darker times to be a Vikings fan. Save for last year, there’s a higher ceiling for this team than any that took the field from 2006-2008. Some of them produced results, but nobody went into those years saying “Look out for the Vikings”; in fact, looking objectively at the 2002-2008, it was really a pretty mediocre run. Culpepper-to-Moss was awesome, the defense was putrid, and the team finished around .500, not exactly something to pine for over what we’ve got going now. I guess what I’m saying here Vikes fans, is that even though we were a better team a month ago, we’ve got the chance to be that team again in two months. So let’s hold the fort through this brutal first half, keep Favre upright and see where this thing takes us. Nothing about this league is predictable.
So of course, I’m doing predictions!
AFC West
Gets the nod over the NFC West in the bad division derby only because there are a couple of up-and-coming teams here that are fun to think about on paper. We know that in any given season, there will be 3 or 4 teams that significantly outperform expectations, and as many who fall below. This division looks to be home of one of each.
San Diego (9-7) – The specter of a defensive end running around the backup left tackle to crumple Philip Rivers like an accordion is playing into this pick, but the buttery-soft early season schedule sets up so nice that I think the new regulars will be able to ease into things. Weakest division champ in my mind.
Kansas City (9-7) – That’s right, we’ve got an outperformer alert! Not much of a sleeper due to the steam their getting, and the first half of the schedule doesn’t do them any favors, but if the Chiefs can get through the first half of their schedule at .500, they should be on their way to a nice final record. Arrowhead used to be one of the most feared places in the league to play, so a KC team challenging for the playoffs could put a charge into the crowd and bring some of that back late in the year.
Oakland (6-10) – Did I miss the part where Jason Campbell was good? Like everyone else, I didn’t watch a lot of Redskins games the past couple of years, but I’ve seen enough to be unimpressed. Jason Campbell is better than JaMarcus Russell like a colonoscopy is better than a vasectomy, I don’t want either.
Denver (5-11) – Thud. Kyle Orton is a winner, it’s true, one of the more perplexing things I’ve seen in my time as an NFL fan. But the only guy who makes plays on the team is dinged up, the best O-lineman missed time, the best defensive player is hurt and the best offensive player from last year is in Miami. Maybe I’m missing something, but what’s to like here?
AFC South
Same old story, Indy is a lock for the playoffs, Jacksonville is locked out and the Double Ts (Titans & Texans) are all over the map. Time to flip a coin for second place.
Indianapolis (12-4) – Most boring good team in the league to watch, although it is kind of fun to watch defensive players running into each other when Manning is doing his pre-snap routine, some of them must be winded before the ball is in motion.
Houston (10-6) – Not only did it agree with my coin flip, but in the battle of mercurial teams, give me the injury-prone QB over the headcase one anytime. Too much offense on this team, just need a bit of D at the right times.
Tennessee (8-8) – For those of you scoring at home, Expectations are currently 5-0 against Vince Young since he left college, and they’re a -120 early line favorite heading into this season. It’s weird, if he was their backup and you told me he’d be playing by game 3, I’d probably add a win or two, such is the odd nature of NFL QBs.
Jacksonville (7-9) – MoJo and not much else, a question to ponder: Is David Garrard good? Stats are always nice, receivers always non-existent, if you put him on a team with some competent players, what’s the ceiling? I say postseason berth, followed by Aaron Brooks-like meltdown.
AFC North
Only thing we know for sure, pencil the Browns into the #4 spot.
Baltimore (11-5) – Dig the offseason moves, but think the defense will suffer a bit with a thin secondary. Once Ed Reed leaves the field, which he will at some point, this team has shown it can get exposed in the passing game. The offense should be able to compensate, but there’s a simple formula: Take 16 games and subtract a victory for each game you expect Anquan Boldin to miss. Obviously I’ve got him at 5.
Cincinnati (8-8) – I’ve flip-flopped on this team roughly 200 times in the past couple of weeks, eventually falling on the side of a letdown season. Sure their final record will only be one game worse than 2009, but with the strength of the AFC East, that means no playoffs. What can I say, just don’t like the prospects of the offense and think the D is good, not great.
Pittsburgh (7-9) – Terribly risky to bet against what has been historically been one of the league’s most resilient teams, but it’s been a rough ride. Could’ve been an awesome 3-team race here, unfortunately Unfrozen Caveman Quarterback had to go trolling for college chicks and get suspended. By itself, this could’ve been absorbed, but throw in the loss of the team’s best O-lineman and I’m feeling a down year for the Steelers. I’m well aware that this is the pick most likely to make me look stupid though, they’re a scrappy team going back as far as I can remember.
Cleveland (3-13) – See Raiders synopsis, adding Jake Delhomme is the answer? Only if the question is: How do we ensure Jake Locker plays here next season?
AFC East
Three teams that are good and one I think could be sneaky good. You heard me right, I’m about to praise the Bills.
New England (11-5) – Return to glory here, even if they don’t have a defense. I grabbed the Brady-Moss connection wherever I could in fantasy leagues, so obviously feeling a huge offensive year. Only question is can the strong pass defenses in the division slow them up enough? I say no.
New York Jets (9-7) – Overhyped based on a good playoff run, this team has a great defense, but will hit some bumps in the road as it tries to transition Mark Sanchez from a game manager to a game winner. Shonn Greene looked great at the end of last season, but replacing Thomas Jones with LaDanian Tomlinson was a mistake in my mind, nobody ever wants Jones, but all he does is produce.
Miami (9-7) – Very excited for the Chad Henne Era now that Brandon Marshall is in the fold (and no, it’s not only because he’s on my Dynasty League team). The Fish have a top-notch running game and passable D, some big plays from receivers were all that was missing last season, I think they get enough this year to flip 7-9 into 9-7.
Buffalo (8-8) – Well hey it’s only a 2-game improvement, but what did you expect, playoffs? CJ Spiller has been a favorite of mine the last couple years at Clemson and the Bills D is an underrated unit. Their only problem is being stuck in the AFC East, instead of one of the Wests…oh yeah, and QB, that could be an issue.
NFC West
Worst. Division. Ever. What was wrong with 3 divisions anyway? 3 champs, 3 wild cards, none of this “terrible division champs sneaking into the playoffs with an 8-8 record” garbage. Is it going to take a 7-9 division champion getting a home playoff game against an 11-5 wild card before this gets fixed? Anyway, somebody’s gotta win this thing.
San Francisco (10-6) – Yes, I have them at 10-6, but a big part of that is 6 games against the rest of the division. Any pick that relies heavily on Alex Smith’s arm and Frank Gore’s knees is by definition, risky, but I think a stellar D and non-conference swing through the AFC West makes this team a lock for double-digit wins. And in a division where the only competent team cut their assumed starting QB last week, that’s more than enough.
Arizona (7-9) – Quick story about Cardinals fans. Having family in Arizona, and being a sports nut, the first thing I check when visiting is who the local teams will be matched up against while I’m in town. The Cardinals website used the have a handy dandy ticket exchange where the general public could buy seats from season ticketholders at face value. This made perfect sense because the general composition of sportsfans in warm weather cities is mostly transplants who selected a team long ago. The New York transplant who has Cards tickets might want to see his team come to town, as well as the Cowboys or Eagles, but no way he’s not staying home to watch his Giants when the Seahawks are in town. Following the Super Bowl run two years ago though, that all changed, and now the Cardinals ticket exchange is the exclusive domain of season ticketholders. I’m going to predict that two years from now, members of the general public will once again be able to pick up cheap ducats in this fashion.
Seattle (4-12) – Matt Hasselbeck’s injury history + Pete Carroll’s coaching history = Just good enough to not be ungodly awful. Sure is a drag when everyone is allowed to pay their players, eh Pete?
St. Louis (3-13) – Anything not involving the words “Sam Bradford” and “season-ending surgery” should be considered a success here.
NFC South
An elite team, a team on the verge, a team past it’s window and a team that makes its fans want to jump out of a window, this should be pretty straightforward.
New Orleans (12-4) – Great early season setup to the schedule has them running out to an 8-1 start into the Week 9 bye, before a slate of tough road games (@DAL, @BAL, @ATL, @CIN) conspires to trip them up late in the season. Post-Super Bowl hangover and defensive injuries could be setbacks, but the way they can score, it’s tough to pick against them.
Atlanta (10-6) – In typical bizarre Falcons fashion, I see a 9-4 record and challenge to the Saints for the division heading into Week 15 at Seattle. A combo platter of the dreaded East-to-West travel and looking ahead to New Orleans the following week causes them to lose a bizarre game to the Seahawks. After which they will promptly come home and beat the Saints to keep hope alive, then blow their finale versus Carolina to extinguish said hope. Because that’s the kind of stuff that happens in the NFL.
Carolina (6-10) – Like the run game, like the D, like the way Steve Smith looked rejuvenated with Matt Moore at QB the last few weeks of 2009, but this looks like a .500 team all the way and the schedule pushes them lower still.
Tampa Bay (1-15) – Because even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile.
NFC North
Too much tied up emotionally here to hope for much accuracy here, but oh well.
Green Bay (12-4) – Pains me to say it, but I think they will be the class of the league and potentially the NFC. Kind of the Patriots West in terms of the current crop of D-backs being able to stop people, but if they get some veterans healthy as the season goes on, look out. And no, this is not an attempt at a reverse jinx, just an honest appraisal.
Minnesota (10-6) – Absolute must to find a way to wring 3 wins out of the first 7 games, a brutal stretch that includes trips to the Saints, Jets, Patriots and Packers, as well as the Cowboys at home. As I said, find a way to win 3 and keep Favre on the field, we should be okay here.
Chicago (8-8) – I’m buying into the Cutler/Martz thing a bit, even if it does end in the first-ever 30/30 season by a QB. This season will tell us with some certainty whether Jay Cutler is actually good, or if he was just being propped up by Brandon Marshall, we shall see.
Detroit (5-11) – Friskiness alert! This should draw a few Lions fans back in, then they’ll go 8-8 next year, true hype will build and Matthew Stafford will suffer a career-threatening in Game 1 of the 2012 season. Don’t say I didn’t warn you Lions fans, you should know better now anyway.
NFC East
My pick for the best division in football, getting the slight nod over the AFC East now that the Redskins have a legit (albeit already gimpy) QB. The games between these teams are rarely bad, making their frequent appearances in prime time the one positive impact East Coast Bias has had on sports.
Dallas (11-5) – Followed by postseason flameout.
New York Giants (10-6) –Wracked by defensive injuries last year and forced to throw too much because of it, I think the Giants get healthy and reestablish their bread and butter this season. Could be an intriguing offense if the RBs can stay healthy and the young receiving corps develops as expected.
Philadelphia (9-7) – I’m a Kevin Kolb believer, but still think the Eagles running game is going to lack something fierce with LeSean McCoy as its top back. Just didn’t see anything out of him last year that made me think he’s going to get better, and if he can’t pickup blitzes in this offense, get ready for a lot of Leonard Weaver.
Washington (6-10) – Couple epic McNabb performances, he beats Philly once, misses some games due to injury, same as it ever was.
AFC Wild Card – Houston over San Diego, Baltimore over New York Jets
NFC Wild Card – New York Giants over Dallas, Minnesota over San Francisco
AFC Divisional – Indianapolis over Houston, Baltimore over New England
NFC Divisional – Green Bay over New York Giants, New Orleans over Minnesota
AFC Championship – Indianapolis over Baltimore
NFC Championship – Green Bay over New Orleans
Super Bowl – Green Bay over Indianapolis
(Now that might’ve been a reverse jinx)
So there they are, my thoughts on the season, be sure to savor every bit of it, because based on the news reports, it’s no certainty we’ll be seeing another one for some time.
Friday, September 3, 2010
Giving it the old college try, take 49: 2010 Gopher Football Preview
At first it didn't seem worthwhile to write a Gopher football preview. After all, as your mother probably told you more than once, if you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all. There's really not much to say on the topic that hasn't been said a hundred times before, the jokes are too easy and the prospect of something unexpected happening so unlikely, that the whole thing barely touches 'Meh' status for most people. For a read on my level of inspiration, look no further than the fact I couldn't even pull together a few thoughts together in time for the first game. And in case you doubted it, let me assure you that the whole of Gopher Nation was clamoring for my take here, indifference just got the better of me.
But when you think about it, no team better exemplifies the "can't do" spirit of Loserville better than Gopher football. If you're looking for the perfect blend of haplessness and hopelessness, look no further. I don't want to offend the two Gopher football diehards I know with this, because it takes guts to keep putting yourself out there for a team like this and I respect them for that, but I just can't wrap my head around the passion they have for this football team. As has been debated before, maybe that makes me a bad fan, but we all have our limits on the amount of dissapointment we can take, and my personal quota has been filled for years.
Outside of a few rare moments, it's just not much fun being a Gopher football fan. Hasn't been for years. The high-water mark of the program in my lifetime occurred on October 10th, 2003, a date that will live in infamy. The Gophers were 6-0, ranked #20 in the country and leading Michigan 28-7 entering the 4th quarter, only to give up 31 points and lose by a field goal. I remember it vividly, standing in the Xcel Energy Center following a Wild game with my buddy Nick, who as a non-native Minnesotan did not carry the ingrained affection for the Gophers that I did. We were standing in a crowd of probably 100 people around one of the arena's bars, all necks craned up at the TVs watching the debacle.
At one point during Michigan's 4th quarter onslaught, Braylon Edwards made a great catch on a long TD to pull the Wolverines within 7, Nick let out a "Yes" and mini-fist pump. It wasn't really out of celebration as much as appreciation of a great play, but 100 heads snapped around and I began to fear one more of those could get us torn limb from limb. I told him to cool it.
Of course the rest is history, the Gophers lost and the program has never recovered, in fact these days it is probably as bad as it's ever been. Say what you will about Glen Mason, he dropped easy games, never won at home, exhibited a surly attitude, etc. But at least his teams could jump up and beat a top team on occasion, something the Tim Brewster Era has not had to offer. At this point it's not even about expecting a good season, just a game or two in which they beat somebody they shouldn't, that would be enough. (Watch for a harsh rebuke in the comments from one Mr. Derek Robertson following this paragraph)
So let's try to wring some positivity out of the run up to the 2010 season, the 49th in the program's quest to return to a Rose Bowl. Hmmm...well...we could go 2-0 with an easy non-conference start to things! Oh sure the Gophers were underdogs to Middle Tennessee State at one point, but with their starting QB and best player out, confidence is high! (EDIT: 24-17 victory last night provides warm fuzzy for those who are in the business of selling hope) After that it's a South Dakota squad we should throttle, then it's onto...oh...USC. Crap.
Earlier this week, I heard someone on the radio say that Tim Brewster need to get at least 8 wins this season to stay employed as head coach. It was all I coule do to keep from spraying coffee all over said radio. An 8-4 record with a nasty schedule for a team that went 6-7 last year and lost it's best (only?) offensive weapon? Hey, while we're at it, let's just say the Twins need to sweep the Yankees in order to prove Ron Gardenhire is a good manager, just winning the series won't do.
I mean let's take a look at this thing:
Middle Tennesse State - Better be a win (EDIT: Was, so far so good) 1-0
South Dakota - Lose this game and the coach should resign the same day. Not kidding, just step to the podium after the game and say "That's it for me folks, good luck" 2-0
USC - Well they had some transfers, right? New coach and all that? No bowl game maybe make them lacking fire? Yeah, I can't convince myself either, too much of a talent advantage. that's a loss. 2-1
Northern Illinois - Don't know a thing about them, so I'll say the Gophers will crush them, book it, 3-1
Northwestern - Ahh yes, that pesky conference portion of the schedule, things are always going so well when this thing comes along. Northwestern is full of smart kids though, and as well all know, too many smart kids is a recipe for disaster on the football field, Gophers in a squeaker, 4-1
So if they start 4-1, why is 8 wins so nuts? Watch this
Wisconsin - Bad news: Brew is 0-3 against them. Good news: All the games have been close. More bad news: They're ranked 12th in the preseason AP and look like they've got a better team than the last few years. In case you were wondering, this is exactly the type of win that would take a ton of heat off, alas, 4-2
Purdue - Brewster OWNS the Boilermakers. Might as well change it to the Brewstermakers, 5-2
Penn St - I'd like to maybe entertain the notion of winning, but no, 5-3
Ohio St - Next, 5-4
Michigan St - Beat them last year and usually play them tough, we'll give the guys the nod, 6-4
Illinois - Ditto, 7-4 (That's right, I just gave back-to-back Big Ten road wins to a guy who has 3 total in 3 years. And people say I can't be optimistic. Wait a minute, opTIMistic, if that doesn't describe the current coach to a tee, I don't know what does.)
Iowa - I wonder if the bathroom stalls at The Bank can accomodate sex as well as the ones in the Dome did? Probably the most interesting point to ponder about this game, 7-5
So there it is, 7-5 is hugely optimistic and what I would certainly call a successful season, as would any Gopher fan I've talked to. The fact a man who covers sports for a living in this town called for "at least" 8 wins is preposterous, and deserving of scorn. You have to crawl before you walk, and right now we're just pulling ourselves into the sitting position. Here's hoping we get a bit of crawling this year.
But when you think about it, no team better exemplifies the "can't do" spirit of Loserville better than Gopher football. If you're looking for the perfect blend of haplessness and hopelessness, look no further. I don't want to offend the two Gopher football diehards I know with this, because it takes guts to keep putting yourself out there for a team like this and I respect them for that, but I just can't wrap my head around the passion they have for this football team. As has been debated before, maybe that makes me a bad fan, but we all have our limits on the amount of dissapointment we can take, and my personal quota has been filled for years.
Outside of a few rare moments, it's just not much fun being a Gopher football fan. Hasn't been for years. The high-water mark of the program in my lifetime occurred on October 10th, 2003, a date that will live in infamy. The Gophers were 6-0, ranked #20 in the country and leading Michigan 28-7 entering the 4th quarter, only to give up 31 points and lose by a field goal. I remember it vividly, standing in the Xcel Energy Center following a Wild game with my buddy Nick, who as a non-native Minnesotan did not carry the ingrained affection for the Gophers that I did. We were standing in a crowd of probably 100 people around one of the arena's bars, all necks craned up at the TVs watching the debacle.
At one point during Michigan's 4th quarter onslaught, Braylon Edwards made a great catch on a long TD to pull the Wolverines within 7, Nick let out a "Yes" and mini-fist pump. It wasn't really out of celebration as much as appreciation of a great play, but 100 heads snapped around and I began to fear one more of those could get us torn limb from limb. I told him to cool it.
Of course the rest is history, the Gophers lost and the program has never recovered, in fact these days it is probably as bad as it's ever been. Say what you will about Glen Mason, he dropped easy games, never won at home, exhibited a surly attitude, etc. But at least his teams could jump up and beat a top team on occasion, something the Tim Brewster Era has not had to offer. At this point it's not even about expecting a good season, just a game or two in which they beat somebody they shouldn't, that would be enough. (Watch for a harsh rebuke in the comments from one Mr. Derek Robertson following this paragraph)
So let's try to wring some positivity out of the run up to the 2010 season, the 49th in the program's quest to return to a Rose Bowl. Hmmm...well...we could go 2-0 with an easy non-conference start to things! Oh sure the Gophers were underdogs to Middle Tennessee State at one point, but with their starting QB and best player out, confidence is high! (EDIT: 24-17 victory last night provides warm fuzzy for those who are in the business of selling hope) After that it's a South Dakota squad we should throttle, then it's onto...oh...USC. Crap.
Earlier this week, I heard someone on the radio say that Tim Brewster need to get at least 8 wins this season to stay employed as head coach. It was all I coule do to keep from spraying coffee all over said radio. An 8-4 record with a nasty schedule for a team that went 6-7 last year and lost it's best (only?) offensive weapon? Hey, while we're at it, let's just say the Twins need to sweep the Yankees in order to prove Ron Gardenhire is a good manager, just winning the series won't do.
I mean let's take a look at this thing:
Middle Tennesse State - Better be a win (EDIT: Was, so far so good) 1-0
South Dakota - Lose this game and the coach should resign the same day. Not kidding, just step to the podium after the game and say "That's it for me folks, good luck" 2-0
USC - Well they had some transfers, right? New coach and all that? No bowl game maybe make them lacking fire? Yeah, I can't convince myself either, too much of a talent advantage. that's a loss. 2-1
Northern Illinois - Don't know a thing about them, so I'll say the Gophers will crush them, book it, 3-1
Northwestern - Ahh yes, that pesky conference portion of the schedule, things are always going so well when this thing comes along. Northwestern is full of smart kids though, and as well all know, too many smart kids is a recipe for disaster on the football field, Gophers in a squeaker, 4-1
So if they start 4-1, why is 8 wins so nuts? Watch this
Wisconsin - Bad news: Brew is 0-3 against them. Good news: All the games have been close. More bad news: They're ranked 12th in the preseason AP and look like they've got a better team than the last few years. In case you were wondering, this is exactly the type of win that would take a ton of heat off, alas, 4-2
Purdue - Brewster OWNS the Boilermakers. Might as well change it to the Brewstermakers, 5-2
Penn St - I'd like to maybe entertain the notion of winning, but no, 5-3
Ohio St - Next, 5-4
Michigan St - Beat them last year and usually play them tough, we'll give the guys the nod, 6-4
Illinois - Ditto, 7-4 (That's right, I just gave back-to-back Big Ten road wins to a guy who has 3 total in 3 years. And people say I can't be optimistic. Wait a minute, opTIMistic, if that doesn't describe the current coach to a tee, I don't know what does.)
Iowa - I wonder if the bathroom stalls at The Bank can accomodate sex as well as the ones in the Dome did? Probably the most interesting point to ponder about this game, 7-5
So there it is, 7-5 is hugely optimistic and what I would certainly call a successful season, as would any Gopher fan I've talked to. The fact a man who covers sports for a living in this town called for "at least" 8 wins is preposterous, and deserving of scorn. You have to crawl before you walk, and right now we're just pulling ourselves into the sitting position. Here's hoping we get a bit of crawling this year.
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