Friday, April 29, 2011

Pondering what just happened

Did the Vikings really just take Christian Ponder at #12?

Did that really just happen?

Yesterday was supposed to be a good day.  I had Twins tickets for the noon game, and the NFL Draft to watch in the evening.  Unfortunately, a day that was supposed to be all about hope for the future offered none, with the Twins getting crushed and the Vikings pulling off the rare feat of uniting their fanbase in opposition of their pick. 

Now I know that every rube fan out there suddenly transforms themself into a draft expert one day a year, and half eventually turn out to be wrong, regardless of the argument.  We all get to weigh in with our two cents, and the resulting debates are part of what makes being a sports fan interesting.  The draft is perfect fodder for throwing out over-the-top proclamations about who ends up a star or bust.  These things are never settled until years down the road, and by that point it's tough to remember who was saying what about a guy when he was picked.  I've been on the right side of a few of these conversations, and the wrong side of an equal amount.  What strikes me most about the Ponder selection is the total lack of support, at least among the fans I know.  In my opinion, this guy should've been picked significantly lower, perhaps even in the 2nd Round.  I'd feel a lot better about things if more people were saying I was nuts.

Obviously any Vikings fan hopes that Christian Ponder turns out to be an excellent NFL QB.  No criticism of the selection should be misconstrued as hoping the guy fails.  And if you feel like brightsiding this whole situation, there are some things you can grab on to.  For my part, I will say that Ponder is exactly the type of quarterback I like.  A pocket passer with good size and enough mobility to be elusive, but not so much that he was able to use it as a crutch to avoid learning how to throw.  Also working in his favor is the fact that he played in a pro style offense, removing the concerns that come with evaluating how a spread QB will translate into the pros.  By all accounts he's extremely intelligent, good leader, plays through pain, many good things have been said.

Unfortunately, for all of those traits, there are also quite a few glaring negatives, starting with a history of injuries.  Now the injury thing is notoriously tough to peg, in recent history we've seen a couple Vikings draft picks who've arrived with the "injury-prone" tag.  One proved it false in resounding fashion (Adrian Peterson), the other has made it appear quite warranted thus far (Chris Cook), although sufficient time hasn't passed to pass full judgement.  What I think we can agree on is that the thought of the Vikings offensive line trying to keep a fragile QB healthy is not very reassuring.

Negative point #2 is the fact that when Ponder did play in college, he didn't exactly blow people away.  There were some nice wins and gaudy stat lines peppered in, but in general, he was just north of average.  His signature performance in 2010 would have to be throwing for 264 yards and 3 TDs in a 37-35 loss versus North Carolina.  The point has been brought up that the Tarheel defense included a lot of NFL-caliber talent.  Problem there is, the defensive end who went 14th overall yesterday was suspended for that game, as were several other players.  If we want to take positive omens from college performances, then you also need to factor in the 11-of-28, 2 INT turd that Ponder laid on the road against Oklahoma, a team that probably best approximates the defenses he'll be facing at the next level.  Neither game tells the whole story, but you can't cherry-pick the one that backs up your opinion.  The biggest thing for me was watching the draft with a Florida St. fan last night who had seen just about every game Ponder played the last few years.  He was a fan of the guy, thought he might amount to something, but was still shocked to see him go where he went.  Not what you want to hear from a confirmed Ponder supporter. 

It's not killing me to have Christian Ponder as the Vikings QB of the future, and I think most fans would agree.  What is killing me is where he was selected, and the future implications that it carries.  By using a high first round pick on a quarterback, the Vikings have essentially locked themselves into starting the season with him under center.  There's is no way they can justify making a trade for a veteran at this point, given what they've already invested in the position and their needs in other areas.  While everyone seems to agree that it was early, the justification that's been offered by a few writers is that they had to pick a QB, because they had no other options.  I have a problem with this line of reasoning, because although nobody wants to go to war with Joe Webb and Rhett Bomar at the top of the depth chart, thinking "we have to draft X regardless, because we have no one at the spot" is exactly what led to Troy Williamson at #7.  There are guys who were discussed as being on par with Ponder that are still on the board, it's tough to believe there wasn't a middle ground here.

Finally, the optics on this thing are just terrible.  Maybe Ponder is truly the guy the Vikings brain trust coveted, but it looks a bit like a panic move.  Scoff if you want, but after watching 3 QBs go in a 5-pick span, I was reminded of a fantasy football adage: "Start the runs, don't finish them."  Of course I realize that this is far from fantasy, but something in that notion still applies.  They saw the guys they wanted go off the board, then grabbed the next guy left in the QB column.  I'm guessing that there were 5-6 other players ahead of Ponder in the Best Available section.  Watching those guys roll of the board, Fairley to the Lions in particular, and no QBs get drafted the rest of the round, poured some salt in the wound.

So what are we left with?  A new face of the team to pin our hopes to, and a whole lot of bad puns.  My calls around the country to other disgruntled Vikings fans last night at least yield a few moments of levity.  As the title of this post suggests, there's a lot to Ponder here.  Will the combination of our pourous O-line and Detroit's impressive new defensive front result in another Christian being thrown to the Lions?  Or will this Christian be successful in his mission to be the savior of our franchise?  Only time will tell, but the chips have been pushed all in, that's for sure.

Odd thing is, the most unsettling thought coming out of this whole things was supplied courtesy of my brother, who mentioned that the last time a team in this town drafted a guy named Christian, the results were less than stellar.  This threw my mind down the path of parallels linking the two of them beyond the name.  One was the 3rd overall pick, the other the 3rd QB picked in quick succession.  Both were regarded as a being a few notches below the guys that preceeded them.  If things hold up, that means Locker is Shaq, Gabbert is Mourning, and Christian...well he's Christian.  Different sport, 20 years ago, remains unsettling.

I wanted the second coming of Prince, because the first one rocked.  Instead we got Christian Part II, let's pray it isn't a sequel.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

One if by ground, two if by air

Taking a break from the playoff hockey talk today, as it's probably getting repetitive.  Not that their isn't plenty to discuss in that vein.  The OT streak was extended to 9 yesterday, on the second of back-to-back double-Game 7 evenings, it just finally seems time to weigh in on the NFL Draft.

Now I might hate the fact that draft chatter starts in February, hate that they moved the first round to Thursday, hate the cloud of a lockout hanging over this year's proceedings and hate the fact that even the people who evaluate players for a living will admit it's a total crapshoot (why am I supposed to care what they have to say when they admit it's probably wrong), but if I bailed on everything that caused me irritation in life, what would be left?  Like most things happening, I don't hate the event, I hate the people who beat the event into the ground, until it can't be escaped!

I don't hate politicians, I hate the folks who voted for them acting like they somehow accomplished something by casting that vote. (FYI, it takes less effort to fill out a circle on a ballot than I expend in my morning trip to the john.  Particularly if I ate something spicy the night before)  I don't hate reality TV, I hate how blatantly obvious it makes the stupidity of the populous.  I don't hate the Olympics, I hate the people who seem to think there's some relevancy switch in life that I can flip to make me care about swimming for a week every 4 years, despite not giving it a second thought the other 207.  I don't hate US Weekly and TMZ, I hate the fact that more people apparently read these publications than newspapers.  I don't even hate the Green Bay Packers, just the idiotic interlopers who sit next to me at Minnesota bars, crowing about how great Wisconsin is.

Point being, I bitch, therefore I am, kind of like one of those fish who has to keep swimming or it dies.  I can give just about anything a chance, but will rebel aggressively once I feel it's being forced upon me.  In a football-crazy world, draft and lockout talk has been the eclipse blocking out the warm sun of playoff action and baseball season.  Draftniks don't just beat a dead horse, they skin it, filet it, make furniture out of it's bones and a wig out of it's mane.  There is a time and a place for everything, and for this guy, when it comes to draft talk, that's about 24 hours before the first pick happens.

Because as much as it might annoy, the draft is an event.  It's the introduction to the public of the new players in America's most popular sport, and to those of us backing teams with lousy prospects, a sorely needed ray of hope.  Am I still unimpressed with this year's draft class and irritated by the lockout news?  Sure, but I'm also not ready to totally give up the chatter.  This was crystalized during a recent conversation, when my joke about draft conversation was met with "I'd rather talk about the Royal Wedding."  Whoa.  That's going way too far.  I have to assume that was a joke, at least I hope it was, otherwise there's a friend I can no longer speak with.

Just think about waking up on Friday morning or staying up all night on Thursday, because you cared about the nuptials of a couple you've never met half a world away.  Furthermore, the reason you care about them is not because they posses any special talents, but rather because one of them was spawed from an inbred bloodline that once upon a time killed off enough of their enemies to seize power (that might not be exactly how it happened, but frankly I don't care).  They're not even real royalty.  Can't order anyone beheaded, lay seige to a castle, pour a bit of boiling tar on a horde, condemn a serf to slavery, nothing.  Big house, some servants, it's basically like they're casting a UK version of "The Hills".  I for one, am unimpressed.

So much like the guilt I feel while eating a huge sandwich in front of the TV and the commercial about starving kids comes on, my situation is minor by comparison.  Imagine for one moment a world in which the tsunami of draft info suddenly morphed into, ROYAL WEDDING NEWS!!!  I'd probably have to go on some kind of killing spree just so something else would be on the radio in the cop car while they were taking me to jail.  I know one thing, the question of "Have you seen pictures of the Royal Wedding?" is being added to the list I use to determine whether I accept someone's mockery of my sports fixation or alert them to why they are full of sh*t.  If you read US Weekly, you've lost the high ground in making fun of draft chatter.  If you stay up until 4 AM to watch this thing live...well then you've lost the right to ever make fun of anything again.  Frankly I'm going to need to take a moment conferring with the other patriots to determine if we can allow you to live.

Because this hate isn't like the ones list above, this one is the genuine article.  I hate the monarchy itself as much as those who worship it.  Call me old fashioned, but we fought a war to rid this country of a king, and in the 200 or so years since, it's my personal belief that they've just been looking for an opening to pay us back.  Used to be someone who showered adoration on royalty was not a welcome member of this republic.  We called them Royalists, and either killed them on the spot, or burned their homes and took their stuff.  These days, it seems as if we've lost our collective edge in that regard.

Now you can give me that weak-ass argument about how that was the 1700s, and times have changed, but to that I say BS.  If we don't keep a close eye on these slippery Royalist s.o.b.s, we'll all be riding the lift, using the loo and ending our conversations with 'Cheers" before you know it.  Do your part to stem the British invasion, if you have suspicion that they're may be a Royal Wedding gathering occurring in your neighborhood this week, alert the authorities.  They may appear to be harmless, but the truth is you never know what one of them is plotting to do, much like child molesters, we need to know the wherabouts of these people at all times.

So where was I?  Oh yeah, the draft.  Apparently there are 6 guys the Vikings would like to get, and if they don't get one of them, they might move down.  Or they might not.  This is the riveting specuation that is the hallmark of draft week.  For my part I can only say that there are a few guys I'd like to see on the team, but they won't be available, so I'm largely indifferent.  Here's my wish list:

1. Prince Amukamara (CB), Nebraska - Out cornerbacks now consist of an aging midget, guy with no ACLs, (alledgedly) gun-toting infirmary case and other assorted castoffs.  Sure anyone who watched Winfield wreak havoc during the Philly game last year can see his potential playing the slot in an aggressive, blitz-happy scheme, but he's never been a classic cover guy and getting older isn't helping.  LSU corner Patrick Peterson, everyone's top player who we have no chance at grabbing, will go Top 5, we can only hope The Prince slips past Dallas and Houston to fall into our laps.  Heck, maybe we can lure Nnamdi here and get the Asomugha-Amukamura connection going, that'd be sweet for everyone who didn't have to call the games.

2. Anthony Costanzo (OT), USC - On a team with as many holes as the Vikings, my general attitude is to rebuild the offensive line and defensive secondary before worrying about the skill positions.  I mean a franchise QB is great, if you can keep him alive long enough to learn how to be a franchise QB.  Matthew Stafford was drafted first overall two years ago, but hasn't been able to stay on the field.  I see history repeating itself if the Vikes try to grab a young starting QB while ignoring their line.  Costanzo was a 4-year starter who went up against some of the best defensive players in college football.  Plus he would put into play every George Costanza quote/joke out there.  That's what we call an intangible.
3. Robert Quinn (LB-DE), North Carolina - There was a lot of steam around the Vikings taking this guy, but lately it's been appearing he will go in the Top 10.  He strikes me as a better fit for a 3-4 and was suspended all of last year, which is troublesome, but I watched a bit of film on him (I know, RUBE!) and he's a beast.  With Ray Edwards about to be history and a team that might need to lean heavily on it's defense for the next couple of years, Quinn might be the guy.

4. Nick Fairley (DT), Auburn - Supposedly not a great effort guy, so could be Haynesworth 2.0, but he was in the conversation for #1 overall a couple months ago.  If he's there at #12, I'd take him.

5. Jake Locker (QB), Washington -  Didn't say I was allergic to first-round QBs, just a bit gun-shy about this year's crop.  Crazy as it might sound, I like Locker in the mid-first better than Newton or Gabbert at the top of it.  To apply a fantasy football strategy, look at the guys who were at the top of the list last year, but are now a little ways down.  Odds are they didn't forget how to play football, just had an off year, and the talent that put them on top is still there.  Jake Locker was considered one of the best, if not the best, quarterbacks in last year's draft.  If you can pick him mid-round, maybe add a late pick by moving down while doing so, pull the trigger.

Some other guys I like: Julio Jones - WR (eff you Sidney, don't let the door hit you), Gabe Carimi/Mike Pouncey - OL (ditto, McKinnie), Cameron Jordan - DE (Steve's kid!)

Some guys I don't: Christian Ponder/Ryan Mallet - QBs (2nd round at the earliest), Tyron Smith - OT (just something that makes me uneasy about USC guys), Jimmy Smith - CB (if only it was the wideout and this was 2002!)

It's perhaps the craziest draft year ever, with opinions flying all over the board.  No free agency or trades have put teams in the weird position of not really know what their full roster looks like before drafting.  Could be an interesting day.

Monday, April 25, 2011

Great week to be a hockey fan

I like to consider myself a pretty open-minded sports fan.  Sure I have strong preferences when it comes to choosing what to watch among competing programs, but for the most part will give anything a chance (except of course any type of racing, just not going to happen).  I once sat in a pub in London and watched a 6-hour cricket match, mostly because it was raining, but also because I wanted to figure out the rules.  While I may not be dying to repeat that experience, there are many worse ways to spend an afternoon.

Because there's usually some entertainment value to be found in any well-played contest, and I try to go for the most meaningful game being played.  We all have our personal pecking order, in mine the hometown teams get preferential treatment and football is the trump card of major sport, because it's regular season is like the playoffs of any other.  But third on the list with a bullet, and moving up every day, are the NHL playoffs.

Regular season NHL games just don't register these days if the local franchise isn't having a compelling season.  With an 82-game schedule going up college counterparts playing less than half that (not Marty), it's simply tough to get amped up about the majority of contests.  Especially during the first three-quarters of the year, when teams seem to alternate stretches of good play with being downright disinterested.  College atmospheres are standing room crowds full of diehard fans, professional games are too often populated by disengaged people who can't name you more than a couple players on the team. 

At $75 a pop for any ducat in the lower level, pro hockey crowds are increasingly corporate.  That's great if you're trying to pay the bills, but lousy if you're looking for great atmosphere and home-ice advantage.  It's usually an inverse relationship, the closer to the ice you get, the more likely you are to hear question like "So what does that line mean?" and "What's icing?"  Even here in Minnesota, the self-proclaimed "State of Hockey", you'll find at least a few fans wondering why they only play three quarters.  That all changes in the playoffs, and the transformation has been especially fun this season.

I don't know where they find playoff hockey crowds, if there's some sort of screening process to ensure only the deserving attend, or what.  All I know is, after watching the last week of playoff contests, few things on Earth are more compelling than a tight playoff hockey contest going down to the wire.  For six days in a row now, if you cared to watch, there has been a game that's gone to OT.  The sight on thousands of people standing, knowing one bounce or deflection could be the difference in victory or defeat, and acting accordingly, reaches through the TV into your living room and pulls you to the edge of your seat.  I know many people prefer the NBA, and their playoffs have a measure of enjoyment too, but nothing trumps 20 minutes in which any second could be the last, there is no substitute.

And if you're team is playing?  Forget about it, don't bother trying to sit and keep the defribrilator handy.  That part has been missing for me this year, and it's absence is noted.  But I suppose the silver lining is being spared that lump of nerves parking itself in your chest while watching your squad play sudden death.  The absence of the Wild dampened my enthusiasm a bit in the beginning, but that disappointment has been blunted by one of the best opening rounds I can recall.  Yesterday featured two riveting Game 6 overtime comebacks that forced Game 7s; tonight's two matchups could do the same.  Regardless of which team you root for, or if you just consider yourself a casual fan, this is as compelling as sports ever get.  If you aren't watching, we'll then your approach to life saddens and confuses me.

Throw in the fact that the NHL inked a new TV deal last week that will guarantee all playoff games are televised next season, and I'm on cloud nine with my second favorite professional league.  Hopefully the confluence of this great playoff action and the improved ratings for it will push hockey back into the public consciousness somewhat, the sport has been wandering in the wilderness too long. 

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Revenge is a dish best served on ice

I will always love the NHL playoffs, but this season has been a bit melancholy, given that my mind often drifts to how much more meaningful things are when my favorite team is participating in the tourney.  I mean Phoenix got swept out of the first round by Detroit yesterday, and might not have a team come this time next year but even in the dire straits their currently occupying, they found a way to make it.  No money to spend, no fans, team in flux, they make the playoffs.  Minnesota sells out games, spends to the cap, and can't even get the courtesy of a beating by a superior opponent.  Such is life.

But there was a brief respite from all the drudgery last night when I encountered a couple of fellows from Long Island at my favorite watering hole, Joe Senser's.  These guys were passionate fans of the New York Rangers, out looking for a spot to watch that night's game.  Fortunately for them, they found the best spot in town.  I showed them how to use the portable speakers so they could hear the audio of their game, they bought me a beer for my troubles.  It was good to once again be around impassioned NHL fans rooting on their favorite team.  We bonded, and I rooted for their Rangers to even the series in full throat.

Unfortunately things ended in rough fashion for my new pals, as they watched their team cough up a 3-0 lead in the third period, and eventually the game winner in the second OT.  This particular dagger was the result of one of the most boneheaded plays I've ever seen in playoff hockey.  Watch the last goal in this video, our old pal, Marian Gaborik, pulls one for the ages in handing the game to the Capitals.  On a night where he finally broke a postseason goal drought that had reached double digits, my least favorite NHL player ensured not one Rangers fan would be discussing that this morning.

Now you can say "heat of the moment" to explain this one away, but it's another chapter in the story of a man who's playoff resume is shorter than my personal guide to vegan cuisine.  I can't think of a single situation where it seems wise to smack the puck away from your goalie when he's falling to cover it.  Maybe if the opposition is right on top of him, even then it seems risky to keep the puck in play.  Sure it was a crappy bounce, but once again, Gaborik displayed the lack of situational awareness that give one the impression he will never succeed in the postseason.  Skill is the price of admission, but winning in the NHL postseason hinges on grit.  Mary Ann is to grit what guys built like me are to the Boston Marathon: Search all you want, there's just none to be found.

Marian Gaborik screwed the Minnesota Wild around pretty good during his 8 years in Minnesota.  He used his contract status to influence personnel moves, nursed chronic injuries that often seemed to be of questionable severity, disappeared in the postseason, and just generally came off like a little bitch.  The man was the highest paid player on the team, but did not lead by voice or example.  Declining to talk to the media after last night's calamity is the latest example of a player who seems to think his obligations end at popping in a goal or two.

Now I don't know the man, he might be a great guy, maybe even a great teammate, who knows?  It's not in everyone's personality to be a rah-rah leader, firing his teammates up.  But when you are the highest paid player on a team, and one of the most well-compensated in the entire league, you are obligated to bring more to the table than some pretty offensive moments.  Sports is a business, and if you're going to claim Gaborik screwed the Wild by leaving, then you have to acknowledge how badly team management dropped the ball by not seeing the writing on the wall more clearly.  But that doesn't mean he gets one ounce of quarter from this Wild fan, who continues to view his departure as an Eff you to a city and fanbase.

They're killing him in New York today.  Good.  Eff him.  While I'm sorry my new pals had to endure a heartbreaker last night, I couldn't be happier to see who ended up as the goat.  Maybe next time they'll stop and think about handing all that money to tin men like Mary Ann Groinorik, because if you're counting on him to lead you, the only place you're going is the golf course.  Probably not, but just maybe.  Here's hoping for one more Rangers win, so the Garden faithful can get the chance to let Gabby hear what they think of him.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

N.F.L. = No Football Love

The NFL Draft opens in 9 days, on the evening of April 28th.  I can't recall ever being more apathetic about this event, or the sport it's a part of.

As the king of American sport, the National Football League has become a 24/7/365 enterprise, complete with it's own network and a year-round calendar of events designed to ensure it never falls too far from the public consciousness during the offseason.  There's typically about a three-week breather between the Super Bowl ending and the first snippets of draft speculation beginning to pop up.  It seems the media and public take a collective deep breath through the end of February, but on March 1st hit you head on, wallpapering the airwaves with mocks and chatter about which teams will do what where.

Normally I don't have much to do with the draft machine during the month of March, with the hockey and basketball tourneys going on, there's just no time to worry about the combine.  But once the calendar turns to April, it's officially time to start checking out how things are projected to play out.  Sure predicting the draft is an inexact science, but it's fun to wade through the opinions that are out there and develop a few of your own.  Is your team picking high or low?  Will they draft for need or take the best player available?  Will one of your favorite college stars potentially be the pick?  Who will fall?  Who will be reached for?  Which bust will go a pick or two before a Hall of Famer?  Debating and speculating on all these questions used to bring me great joy, but for some reason this year, they are not.

There are a number of reasons for this, labor strife of course leads the way.  I pretty much cut ties with the league soon after the lockout started, about the time the words "injuction" and "decertification" began to outnumber every other type of news 10 to 1.  Stopped tuning in to some of my favorite sports programs to avoid the discussion, changed the channel on others when it came up, unfollowed 20 or so football folks on Twitter, simply went into NFL sensory-deprivation.  This is not to say I consider myself any less rabid a fan, just that courtroom legalities are for lawyers to consider, and not worth my time and attention.  There has been no real news to follow with free agency on hold, and even if there were, how am I supposed to muster any enthusiasm for a season that may never happen?  The whole thing seems to ring hollow. 

But beyond the fact that they're might not be a next season, there's a bigger problem: This year's crop of players just isn't that good.  Now I have to throw in the caveat that this stuff is tough to judge, you never really know how guys will develop, etc., but at the moment, I see a lot of teams uncertain about who they're going to pick, which points to a lack of compelling choices.  For example, Vikings fans are trying to talk themselves into a QB as a franchise savior.  Problem is, it's a different guy every week.  First it was Ryan Mallet, who'd be a steal at #12, then it was Cam Newton potentially falling, next it was Jake Locker making the workout leap back into the middle of the first round.  At this point, the whole thing seems about as firm as the midsection of your average NFC North fan after 6 months of winter.

None of this is a surprise if you watched any appreciable amount of college football last season.  There is one player that I would be legitimately excited to see my team draft, Patrick Peterson from LSU, and there is zero chance he'll be available by the time they get on the clock.  During the last week the hot names thrown about have been a DE/OLB who was suspended all of last season and an offensive tackle who I heard described as having "not what you'd call elite talent".  If that doesn't get you buzzing, well then I don't know what to tell you.

Which leads us to the final, and biggest, problem that I'm left to ponder, is it possible I'm just losing my passion for the Vikings offseason?  Once upon a time, I'd dig into any topic with gusto, now it all just leaves me cold.  It's not because they stink (if anything that makes the offseason more fun, not less), but more because NFL fans in general are starting to get on my nerves.  I'll cop to the irony in someone like me saying another person is taking an element of sports too seriously, but have you seen some of these people?  They're debating who offers the best value in the 4th round, which quarterback's mechanics translate best to the pros, and a host of other topics, to which I can only reply: NERDS!

It might be different if I followed another non-cursed franchise, but discussion of the Vikings fortunes strikes me as more pointless with every passing year.  Give me any what-if scenario you please, and I will respond with a simple "Makes no difference", because until the curse is lifted, nothing will.  You want to speculate on how the hex started, and what we can do about lifting it, then I'm all ears.  But until you start on those grounds, you are wasting everyone's time.

Many fans may not believe this, but that just means they are either in denial, or have not been following this team long enough.  All the players in the world can do nothing when it comes to the cosmic, keep that in mind.

Friday, April 15, 2011

Reverse jinx time!

Let's see here.

Stumble out of the gate with a poor record, big free agent acquisition breaks his leg, bullpen is shakier than Michael J. Fox on a vibrating bed, franchise player being paid the GDP of a small country going on DL...I should officially be at DEFCON 3 on the Twins season.  But oddly, I am not.

Maybe it's the lingering bitterness from the hockey game that shall not be named a week ago distracting me (still have about 3-4 moments a day where I well up with rage and want to punch something, yet no punches thrown to date, feel I deserve credit for this, would've taken the news that I had inoperable brain cancer better than I took that game).  Maybe it's the fact that the Twins always seem to find a way around this stuff.  Could be the start of the NHL playoffs blunting the force of these early shots, or perhaps I've just been beaten down by all the losing.  Whatever the reason, it's an unlikely place for me to find myself, and although it's far from the start we'd hoped for, it's still April and there's no reason to panic...yet.

Now I don't want to go down the road of countering every negative item from the first two weeks of the season with a piece of optimism, because there's been a dangerous negative precedent set in that regard.  Way back in July, I tried to quell the gnawing doubts that were accumulating about the Vikings season by offering points of hope.  We all know how that turned out, so I shan't tempt fate by going down that path again.

But I will bring up the one salient stat here that requires no analysis to back it: 6 out of 9

That's the Twins performance in winning the Central Division since 2002.  Not to mention that one year they lost in a one-game playoff.  Now we can debate how much those division titles are actually worth, and I'd readily admit that there's no reason to believe the postseason will hold better prospects this year, but the bottom line is things have been worse and ended up better in years past.  Again hearkening back to last summer, I gave up the team for dead on July 16th.  They then proceeded to run away with things.

So perhaps that's all that required here, and the Twins are simply the yin to the Vikings yang (please, no Visanthe Shiancoe jokes).  As we've all seen, the Vikes never collapse until even the most hard-bitten and fatalistic fan (that being me) is roped into believing.  They thrive on raising you up before they crush your spirit into smithereens.  Could it be that the Twins are their polar opposite, and won't turn on the jets until they've been written off?  If so, I'll do my part, there is no way the Twins will win this division.

Not enought juice there?  Okay, once more with feeling:

THIS TEAM STINKS!  THEY CAN'T HIT, HAVE NO BULLPEN, AND THEIR TWO FRANCHISE PLAYERS ARE CHINA DOLLS!  ANY MEMBER OF THE PITCHING STAFF COULD GET SHELLED AT ANY TIME, AND OUR "ACE" HAS ALL THE FOCUS AND MENTAL TOUGHNESS OF A TEENAGE GIRL!  THE ONE THING TO LOOK FORWARD TO THIS SEASON IS SHEDDING $32 MILLION WORTH OF GARBAGE NAMED NATHAN, CAPPS AND CUDDYER!  IT'S OVER, TRADE EVERYBODY AND REBUILD!

That should do the trick.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

2010-11 Wild Season In Review

The Minnesota Wild played one of their most compelling games of the season in Sunday's finale, notching a huge win to secure a playoff spot on the final day of the regular season.  The next morning, their coach was fired after two seasons on the job.  These two conflicting pieces of information may seem difficult to reconcile, until it's disclosed that the playoff spot in question now belongs to the Chicago Blackhawks, and the best role the Wild could muster was that of spoiler to the Dallas Stars playoff hopes.

Now I'd be lying if I said there wasn't a healthy bit of enjoyment to ending the season of the franchise that was stolen from this state 18 years ago.  I will hate the Stars for the rest of my days, and if given the choice of screwing over any team in the league, they'd be at the top of my list.  The whole thing still doesn't amount to a whole lot though, as us Wild fans are still left on the outside of the playoffs looking in, for the third season in a row.

Shortly after the NHL playoffs ended last June, I posted a critique of the Minnesota Wild's 2009-10 campaign, along with some ideas of how the playoff drought could be broken in the upcoming season.

Comparing how the team did a year ago

Points out of the playoffs: 11
Teams between the Wild and the #8 seed: 4
Goals for: 219 (22nd)
Goals against: 246 (21st)
Goal differential: -27(24th)

To how things played out this season

Points out of the playoffs: 11
Teams between the Wild and the #8 seed: 3
Goals for: 206 (26th)
Goals against: 233 (17th - tie)
Goal differential: -27 (21st)

Tells us only what anyone paying attention already knew going into the season, it's very difficult to get great improvement out of a marginal team that has no cap room available.

The Wild still lack anything resembling an elite scorer, and watched an anemic offense get worse this season.  Coming into the year, fans were sold on the merits of continuity, that a year of experience with the new system now in place would be enough to change the fortunes of the squad.  A few solid veteran's were added at the center position, but in general the returning personnel was similar.  Not surprisingly, they pretty much turned in a carbon copy of what happened the year before.

Last summer, I identified the 2010-11 Minnesota Wild Pyramid of Hope, six players at three different levels of performance who needed to step up for the Wild to improve.

Here's how they fared against expectations:

Laying the groundwork - 3 guys who need good seasons to keep the Wild out of the cellar

1) Martin Havlat
The ask: The Wild need 30 goals and 60 points at a minimum
The give: 22 G, 40 A
Thoughts: Although Havlat didn't hit the scoring levels laid out, it can't be said that he had a bad season.  Sure it would've been huge to see 8-10 more goals from him on a team this starved for scoring, but he was much improved from last season and given a bit of help, could come close to those stats in the future.  Now the question is, will it be Halfthat (2009 version) or Havlat who shows up to play next October?
Grade: B
 
2) Brent Burns
The ask: Stay healthy.  That's it.  I firmly believe that if Brent Burns can stay on the ice for 70+ games this season, he will produce.
The give: 80 games played, 17G 29A
Thoughts: Well I was sort of correct.  After rolling through the first half looking every bit the player he once was, Burns fell off a cliff in the season's last 30 games.  After playing game #47 to end the month of January, his season totals stood at 14 goals and 17 assists, with great defense to boot.  In the final 33 contests, he added 3 goals and 12 assists to those totals, while having several cringe-worthy moments in his own zone. 

At 26 years old, with one year left on his contract, Burns is a perfect example of the problems plaguing this team.  He can be an amazing player when he's on, few blueliners play a better all-around game.  Unfortunately he can be just as bad on occasion, and with the potential for a multi-year deal at $4-5 million per on the horizon, the Wild can't make the wrong call here.  Burns has been one of my favorite players over the Wild's history, but I think it's time to shop him aggressively this offseason.  The team needs to hold onto some value here, but the risk of signing another inconsistent player too a bad contract is too great.

3) Nicklas Backstrom
The ask: Play competently, re-establish himself as at least a Top 10 goaltender, .920 save % and sub-2.50 GAA is a must

The give: 2.66 GAA, .916 save %
Thoughts: The goals against won't be winning any awards, but when considering the save percentage and team playing in front of him, I'd have to call Backstrom's season acceptable.  The Wild turned getting outshot into an art this season, often allowing their goaltenders to get peppered ridiculously for stretches.  The goaltending is still on the pricey side, but hard to single out as a big part of the team's struggles.


Framing things up - 2 guys who need to step up for the Wild to return to the playoffs

4) Mikko Koivu
The ask: A bump from the 22G 49A line of last season to 30/50 range should do the job
The give: 17G 45A in 71 games during a season somewhat limited by injury
Thoughts: As I said at the end of last season, Koivu is the definition of a nice player.  Brings a lot to the table, takes little off, good teammate, leader, good building block.  But with that being said, Mikko Koivu is not the type of player you are excited to have your team paying almost $50 million to over the next 7 years. 

Admittedly, my views on things might be too myopic, with too much focus on scoring and not enough credit given for excellence in other parts of the game.  But when you're 26th in the league in goals, can you afford to pay a guy who's never topped 22 goals $7 million per season?  Even though talent evaluators can see value in many more areas, free agent dollars hinge on stats.  I may be wrong, but it would've shocked me to see any other team even approach the price the Wild just locked Koivu up for.  30 goals is not a ridiculous number,in fact at this salary level, it's a must.

5) Pierre-Marc Bouchard
The ask: For his sake, as well as the team's, PMB just needs to get healthy and get on the ice, we'll see where things go from there.
The give: 12G, 26A in 59 games, more importantly ended the season upright, giving hope he might be okay for the long term
Thoughts: Always nice to see a player come back from injury, particularly when it's a guy you're locked in to paying $8 million over the next two seasons.  Now let's move on with our warm feelings about PMB before I remember how drastically he loses his effectiveness in the playoffs.  That might be the saddest silver lining I've ever considered: At least we don't have to be reminded of how poorly our players perform in the postseason.


Finishing touches - 1 guy who could take the team to the next level

6) Guillaume Latendresse

The ask: The X factor, barring some huge improvements from other players, the damage done in the playoffs will hinge on Latendresse emergence as a go-to scorer
The give: Zip, zilch, zero, nada.  Not only is Latendresse not going to make an impact in the playoffs, his no-show this season is probably the biggest reason they're making early tee times for the third year in a row.  It seemed like we found a diamond in the rough last season, instead we've simply found another athlete who works hard when things are uncertain, then eases back at the first sign of some security.  Latendresse signed a nice extension, came into camp out of shape, got hurt early, and was never heard from again.  11 games played, 3 goals, 6 points, and a whole lot of question marks about his future as an effective player.


So should they have fired Todd Richards?  Probably not.  The consensus among the hockey fans and pundits alike is that the Wild's roster is nothing special.  Their talent is that of a fringe playoff team, so why be shocked when they end up on the wrong side of that fringe?  When the last Western Conference team in is the defending champs, who may have lost a lot, but still have far superior players, what can you do?

Michael Russo, the excellent hockey writer for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune wrote a piece earlier this week on how difficult a quick turnaround would be, given the current pipeline and salaries.  about how mediocrity is keeping the team from drafting game changing players.  Rachel Blount wrote a piece today discussing the need for an infusion of talent in the lineup.

While both are true enough, the fanbase can only respond with a collective 'Duh', as this isn't new info.  Barring something unexpected, like a quantum leap by several prospects or amazing coaching hire, things aren't getting better any time soon.  $50 million of next year's cap is already committed, meaning free agency won't be the answer.  A mid-1st round draft pick also won't offer a quick fix.

So we bide our time, hope the team can make a deal to move a big salary, and just generally stays away from locking themselves into any more big salaries for marginal players.  See you next fall I guess.

Friday, April 8, 2011

Michigan 2, North Dakota 0 - The hits just keep on coming

I have a tendency to get a bit wordy on these posts, so I will keep this one short and sweet.  Yesterday the best chance that I will probably ever have in my life to see a team I root for win anything went up in smoke. 

Kind of felt it comin with all the praise being heaped on the Sioux the past couple of weeks, definitely felt it once the game started and the team in green didn't resemble anything I'd watched over the past couple months.  Michigan's goaltender and defense needs to be given credit, but at the end of the day, the Sioux just played lousy and couldn't cash in on any of their many opportunites.  It was apparent watching two power plays in the first that the team simply didn't have it, and although the shots made it look lopsided, it was actually a fairly flat performance.

The best thing to do would be to move on and think about next season, but I believe I'll stew on this one a bit.  Perhaps a dimly lit bar and a few glasses of whiskey are in order.  Easier to shake these things off when they are unexpected.  Setting your sights on a title all season long and going into the final two games as the favorite will lead to heartbreak when you fall short.  Frankly I haven't been this depressed since the Vikings last NFC Championship loss.  Don't want to think about next year, or even sports in general right now, just want to forget what just happened.
At least one thing got clears up, the universe is not sh*tting on the state of Minnesota, but on me personally.

Wish I could take back whatever it was I did to cause this.

I'll never root for a winner.

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

The 2011 Frozen Four: More than just a game

I am a mess.

Since waking up Monday morning, my fear and loathing has grown to the point where it has become almost debilitating.  I've lacked focus, lost sleep and spent long hours pondering the 'ifs' of what might unfold Thursday.  In short, I've spent far too much time and energy thinking about something I have absolutely no impact on, short of perhaps being one voice in a crowd of thousands spurring my team on.  This is the stuff that causes people I know to wonder why I follow sports in the first place.  To most, my idiotic gyrations must seem either comical or sad.  But this is the way I'm wired, and have never known another way to operate.

Sports is supposed to be entertainment.  No doubt you've heard the cliches of "It's not life or death" and "It's just a game", repeated a hundred times over.  The problem is, for millions of people throughout the world, the outcomes of these games means so much more than that.  Maybe we overplay their significance because we just don't have enough important things going on in our lives.  I will certainly cop to that, it's doubtful the teams I follow would take on the same importance if I had a child to look after (At least I hope so, for the kid's sake).  But the whole thing is really much deeper than that.

Every college hockey season I renew acquaintances with old friends, many of which I haven't seen in some time.  They are people who may not be the closest of friends, but are always a welcome sight wherever they happen to pop up.  Sometimes it's an expected meeting, other times a random run-in at some far-flung arena or college town bar.  Whatever the circumstances, it never gets old, be it in the form of an entire evening shooting the breeze, a quick drink, or a 2-minute chat in an arena concourse.  Some will scoff at the notion, but these people are my college hockey family, and there's a similar set out there for every other team in every other sport.

Because there's a kinship among fans, even those of the worst teams.  When the going gets tough, we lean on the collective, and the presence of like-minded individuals who know what we're feeling offers the strength to get back on that horse.  Those who don't understand wonder why we cling to the same bad teams one heartbreaking year after another, asking why not just jump ship to another that offers better prospects for success?  We don't do this because it would make us frauds in the eyes of those who we've struggled alongside.  The past is prelude, and winning is meaningless if you sell out who you are to achieve it.

Am I doing a sufficient job of making this situation much grander and more complex than it ever should be?  I certainly hope so.  Lord knows how my sleeping might suffer should I stopped to think of just how much of my life revolves around grown men throwing a ball.  But what people who don't follow sports will never understand are the connections between fans of the same team.  Even if they are strangers thousands of miles from home, the sight of a familiar logo and simple question "You a ______ fan?" can be the only two steps needed to kick off a budding friendship.  Or, should it be a rival, at least an evening of good-natured trash talk. 

Our stuff beats your stuff, it's true.  There will never be an Oscar debate that's as interesting as an MVP debate.  Too subjective.  No stats.  There will never be a conversation about music or art that draws in so many people as equals.  Too much accounting for tastes.  No broader appeal.  Sports are one of the few places you'll see two strangers with nothing in common but the color of their jerseys high-five and hug.  One of the only environments where the opinions of Joe Sixpack carry the same weight as a six-figure executive. While admittedly imperfect for a host of reasons (bad calls, PEDs, disparate salaries) sports remain superior because they allow for debate on the minor points, yet require none for the major.  Those are settled on the field, or ice, or diamond, decisively and with no equivocation.

Like many things in life, winning a title is as much about the journey as the destination, falling short a few times just adds to the sweetness once you finally break through.  Only problem is, sometimes you start to wonder if the breakthrough will ever come.  The last decade has been hard on my fellow Sioux fans and I.  Sure there has been plenty of success, but also a ton of heartbreak in big games to accompany it.  This will be the 11th season since the last Fighting Sioux national title, and 6th Frozen Four appearance in that span.  I've gone into these games confident, nervous, just happy to be there, emotions have run the gamut.  The only consistency has been in the results, no hardware.

This year's team has the feel of one that should get the job done, and everyone offering an opinion seems to think they're the team to beat.  That's cold comfort to anyone who's watched enough hockey to realize how fickle the game can be, one bad bounce or hot goaltender is all it takes to derail even the best squad.  Now with a week off to cool down from a dominant regional performance, who knows how it's all going to go?  I guess all that I can say is that I'm happy to not see Boston College as the opposition, then I remember the other bench will be occupied by the winningest program in NCAA history, so careful what you wish for.

On paper, the Sioux should beat Michigan, and whichever team comes out of the Duluth-Notre Dame matchup.  On paper they have the nation's best scorer, goaltender and deepest lineup.  On paper, I should be fearless.  But they don't play games on paper.

Most people in this town, including most of my friends, won't be rooting for North Dakota to win, which is understandable.  If the shoe were on the other foot, I'd be cheering for just about anybody before I would their Gophers.  But as much as a Sioux title might annoy them, I'd hope even the biggest UND hater could be happy for people like me, who put their heart and soul into this stuff, without a whole lot to show for it.

A friend of mine told me the other day that North Dakota winning the title is destiny.  After all, it's been the worst year in recent Minnesota sports history, the hated Packers won the Super Bowl, a Sioux title would fit perfectly with the theme.  Man I hope he's right, and my personal jinx isn't strong enough to trump the collective struggles of a state.  Guess we'll find out soon enough.

Go Sioux.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

That sucked

I was led to believe that an entertaining evening of sports was on tap yesterday.  I was misinformed.

First it was March Madness ending with a thud, but it was fitting that the worst championship game in years cap off one of the more lackluster tournaments. Sure there were exciting moments, but when you play 30-some games in a three week span, you're bound to get at least a few of those. I'm not saying we need to cancel the tourney here, but the growing randomness of it all is making the regular season increasingly meaningless. The 9th place Big East team just won the national title in a Final Four that featured zero #1 or #2 seeds, is this a good thing? There's something to be said for getting hot at the right time, but also for the 4 1/2 months of competition that preceeds the tournament.

I know three things:

College basketball needs more upperclassmen to stick around
I definitely do not want to see the tourney expand to 96-team
The Gophers must be worse than ever imagined to miss the NIT in this era of college hoops


Also failing to add much intrigue were the Twins, who predictably lost to the Yankees last night, but not in a fun way that would allow me to go on a tirade. Had the perfect Scott Baker rant teed up after he allowed two-run bombs in each of the first two innings, then something very strange happened...Baker began pitching capably. Now we've seen this before in spurts, but usually not in the middle of a meltdown. Usually if Moonshot starts bad, he stays that way, but last night was an exception. At any rate, the Twins still lost (I'm trying to be fair here, but don't you need the $23-Million Dollar Man to deliver in that spot?), but Baker's performance robbed me of a chance to question the decision to start him in the first place.

The thinking going in was, we're probably going to lose to Sabathia on Tuesday anyway, so why not start Duensing in game one and wave the white flag by trotting out Baker for the second?  As an added bonus, I'd get to use my 'Bake and The Fatman' joke.  That opinion got turned on it's ear when the Achillies heel ended up not being the pitching, but the Twins failure to get hits off a guy named after a car. Chevy Nova looks like a decent pitcher, but he's barely more than a rookie, and some of our seasoned veteran hitters needed to make some things happen. It was good to see Baker pitch somewhat competently, good to see Morneau and Thome getting into a couple, good to see T-Nish deliver a big hit, but it's still just another mark in the 'L' column.  Keep repeating after me, "we never beat the Yankees", "I expect nothing", "let's just try to take away a few positives".  Three more cracks to go.

Fortunately, the main event of the week is still on tap, hopefully college hockey can pick up college basketball's slack.  It's almost Frozen Four time, and I've got thoughts aplenty, stay tuned.

Monday, April 4, 2011

The Tom Kelly "Even Keel" Approach

Lousy weekend north of the border, as the Twins opened up the season by getting shelled, backed up by getting, in the words of Harry Doyle, "one goddamn hit" on Saturday, then eeked out a tight game on Sunday.  The pitching was poor, fielding sloppy, and hitting nonexistent.  Now you might think a superstitious person like me, who reads way too much into things and overreacts at every turn, would be freaking out a bit today.  That's not the case, for a variety of reasons.

First off, the Twins always lose to Toronto, particularly in Toronto.  The Blue Jays won 6 of 9 games between the two clubs last season, including a 11-2 pounding of Carl Pavano that looked remarkably similar to Friday night's opener.  Was I perturbed by the fact that they went down 4-0 in the first inning, en route to a 13-3 shellacking in the season opener?  You betcha, but that was more about the anticipation of game one, and feeling robbed when it turned into a dud.

So now it's off to New York, and the expectation of returning home Friday with at best a 2-5 record.  Again, losing 3 of 4 at Yankee Stadium will be nothing new, so nothing to get bent out of shape over.  This is not a rationalization of failure, simply an acknowledgement that things might take a bit of time to come together this season.  The middle infield is unfamiliar, the first baseman and closer are returning from injuries and a little off, the pitching staff isn't quite in rhythm.  Basically, the same issues that a lot of teams face early on.  If the Twins are still behind Kansas City in the standings a month from now, then I'll panic.

But just because I'm not agitated about baseball doesn't mean I'm not agitated.  Today it's the NFL draft.  Not that I have a problem with the draft itself, typically it's one of my favorite events of the year.  This year, with the Vikings holding a high pick, should be more entertaining than usual, if only I could get past the black labor cloud hanging over the league at the moment.  Watching a bunch of guys get drafted is only intriguing because you get to speculate on seeing them play in a few months.  Without the promise of a season on the horizon?  Well they might as well be discussing the WNBA.

Just another reminder how the most popular and profitable sports league in the history of this country is killing the golden goose.  I'm sure that at some point the draft chatter will suck me in, but each time it's come up so far, I've disgustedly changed the station.  It's bad enough they moved the damn thing to Thursday night, now they don't even have the decency to ensure there will be a next season, before hyping the new additions that will be a part of it.  Maybe.

Friday, April 1, 2011

Baseball!!!

The lack of star power in the Final Four is leaving me cold, the NHL playoffs haven't started and  Frozen Four is still a week away.  Thank goodness today is the official start of Twins baseball!

As usual, the Twins open the season with some question marks, and some division rivals who have made upgrades.  Key losses in the bullpen and middle infield have raised doubt over whether the hometown nine can once again beat out the White Sox and Tigers for the division crown.

Now normally I'm a pretty dedicated pessimist, and this season it seems a lot of folks agree with that assessment.  The Whities picked up a slugger in Adam Dunn this offseason, the Tigers similarly upgraded their offense by adding Victor Martinez.  The Twins?  Well they mostly just watched things happen, choosing to go their typical route of "looking at internal options" to patch the holes in their roster.

In the past this do nothing strategy would be driving me nuts, but in the era of the $100+ million payroll Twins, it's a little tougher to get bent out of shape.  Next offseason will have some major turnover, dollar-wise, with Joe Nathan and Michael Cuddyer hitting free agency.  There will also be key decisions to be made on players like Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano, potential stars who need to back up their strong performances from last season.  Against this backdrop, I don't have much of a problem with the conservative approach.  The team is in a good position to figure out who it's future cornerstones are, and act accordingly.

But the bigger factor is, the Twins just keep delivering.  Every year we read about the strides Chicago or Detroit has made, yet almost every year, it's the Twins who are left standing at the end.  As I've said before, if not for the White Sox title (admittedly huge), this "rivalry" wouldn't have much intrigue.  Even my Chicken Little self has finally seen enough to give the Twins the benefit of the doubt.

So now, for posterity, the 2011 Twins Over/Unders:

Division
Wins………90 - Over
Place……..2nd - Over

Seems to take somewhere in the 90-94 win neighborhood to take this thing, I'll pencil the Twins in for 92-70 and another division crown.  As always, the White Sox look better on paper, but that's been the case most years.  A healthy Jake Peavy could be a game-changer, but when you're in year 3 of saying that, it may no longer be a factor worth considering.  2nd Place - Chicago (90-72) 3rd Place - Detroit (86-76)


Pitching Wins
Liriano……..15 - Over
Pavano….....14 - Push
Duensing…...12 - Over
Baker……...10 - Over

I'll clock in at 17-9 for Frankie, 14-14 for Pavano (the year I expected in 2010), a 14-10 record for Duensing and 13-10 for the Butcher, er Baker, in a bounce back year.  I'll also predict multiple 500-foot home runs hit by Adam Dunn off Moonshot Scott.


Batting Average
Mauer……..330 - Under
Nishioka…...300 - Over
Valencia…...290 - Under
Span……….275 - Over

I'm seeing a bit more power at the expense of average from Mauer this season.  Probably buying into the hype on Nishioka too much, but the guy seems to have Ichiro-like contact ability, so I think he'll succeed.  Valencia will have a sophmore slump and Span will come out of his, just seems to be the way the game ebbs and flows.


Home Runs
Mauer………15 - Over
Morneau…....30 - Over
Delmon……..25 - Push
Kubel…….....25 - Over

None of the overs will be very far over, 2-3 at most, but I like the power to start coming out a bit more this year.  Sure Target Field is insanely tough to hit the ball out of, but with a year of experience, I think the long ball numbers improve.


Games played
Morneau…..130 - Over

Pure optimism


Saves
Nathan..........30 - Under

Something just seems off here


Thome hits HR #600 (currently at 589)…..June 15th - Over

Here's hoping I'm right on most of these, if so it will be one heck of a fun season, Go Twins!!!