It’s that time of year again, the part where I attempt to predict how the NFL is going to shape up, only to end up with more comedic fodder than brilliant insight come December. But in my defense, plenty of people who do this for a living do just as poorly, and they don't have a day job eating up their research time.
In keeping with the running theme of these posts, we’re going to compare each team to something they remind me of in a particular category. Two years ago, it was beers. Last year, it was movies.
This year, I thought we’d tackle the musical doppelgangers of the NFL.
AFC West
Denver (9-7) / “Up To My Neck” (AC/DC) – Excluding vampires, perhaps no group of people in history has taken as much interesting in the fate of a neck as Denver Broncos fans this offseason. Even after months of talk about the bazillion surgeries, diminished throwing velocity, more outdoor games and a bunch of other reasons this won’t work, I’m still buying in for a couple reasons. First, he’s Peyton Effing Manning, and I’m not kicking dirt on him until we’re damned sure this thing is over. I love a good comeback story, and suddenly find myself rooting for both Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos more than I ever have before.
Second, the Broncos succeeding this season will be another nail in the coffin of the Tebow legacy. After Manning takes them to the playoffs, all we’ll need is a spectacular flop in relief of Mark Sanchez, video of him swearing at schoolchildren while kicking a puppy, a failed PED test and a leaked sextape to finally get him the hell off ESPN.
Kansas City (8-8) / “Back In Black” (AC/DC) – Are we going to go entirely AC/DC for the AFC West? A better question is, why wouldn’t we? The Chiefs are getting back three of their best players from full-season injuries and added my personal favorite offensive lineman, Eric Winston (Go Canes), in free agency. Incidentally, the first sign you might care too much about football is the day you pick a favorite offensive lineman, but dude is a badass, he probably carries the same wallet Sam Jackson had in Pulp Fiction.
The second sign you care way too much about football is that you downloaded a schedule grid into Excel and went game-by-game to figure out records, linking matchups to ensure that the offsetting win or loss is appropriately reflected when any change is made. You then obsessively tweak said spreadsheet because very few teams 8-8 teams have both winning and losing streaks of more than 4 games. It's pretty embarrassing to admit that's what a significant portion of my evenings have consisted of during the past week, but still less embarrassing than a lot of what people admit to watching on television.
Without trying to plan for it, I got to a very intriguing place with the AFC West by Week 17, the Broncos, Chiefs and Chargers all sitting at 8-7, with two divisional games on the schedule. A win would get the Chiefs or Chargers in regardless, by virtue of their holding the division-record tiebreaker over the Broncos. So what happens? The Broncos and Raiders win, of course. And if you have to ask why, you haven’t been following the AFC West.
By the way, if that exact sequence unfolds, I expect you all to hail me as a prophet and send $50 to my newly formed Church of the Immaculate Reception. Otherwise, I will start predicting comets.
San Diego (8-8) / “Kicked In The Teeth” (AC/DC) – How many times is a Chargers team going to start slow and rally down the stretch, then fall flat on its face in the clutch, before the Norv Turner is finally put out to pasture? I’m not sure what the exactly number is, but “at least one more” is one correct answer.
Oakland (5-11) / “Highway To Hell” (AC/DC) – But at least they get to play spoiler. People keep talking about how good Carson Palmer was at the end of the season, and it makes me feel like I’m missing something. After all, this was an 8-8 team that spent the first half of its season watching Jason Campbell throw for 150 yards a game. But then you see their minus-74 point differential, think about their defense getting lit up and consider the fact that Michael Bush is not around to pick up the slack after Darren McFadden’s ankles explode like the T-1000 walking through liquid nitrogen. But if that does happens, at least I can break into my cache of Taiwan Jones jokes.
“Why did Taiwan Jones get angry when he went to the mall?”
“No one recognized him.”
Wah-wah, let’s all hope it doesn’t come to that.
AFC South
Tennessee (9-7) / “Crazy Train” (Ozzy Osbourne) – If you think having them at the top of the division is crazy, you’re probably right. But this is the NFL, and crazy is guaranteed, so why not the Titans jumping up to win a pretty lousy division? After all, Houston was a 6-10 doormat two years ago, with perhaps the worst defense in the league. I still shudder at the memory of watching them kill my fantasy playoff chances in Week 15 by letting Kenny Britt (and the immortal Kerry Collins) torch them time and again. It was like someone had pinned me down and had the defensive secondary collectively urinate on me for 3 hours. Then they win the division with pretty much the same set of guys the following year, go figure.
Besides, if you think the prediction is shaky, wait until you hear how I have them getting there!
A brutal early season schedule featuring New England, at San Diego, Detroit, at Houston, Pittsburgh, at Buffalo and Chicago has them at 4-6 entering their Week 11 bye. Then Jake Locker begins to put things together, leading the team on a 4-game win streak out of the bye that’s only derailed when they travel to Green Bay in Week 16. The four opponents in said streak? At Jacksonville, Houston, @Indianapolis, NY Jets. After that, all they need is a win against Jacksonville at home to get to 9-7 with a 5-1 division record, one game better than the Texans 4-2.
Improbable? Yes. Impossible? Hardly. And you certainly can’t say it isn’t bold.
Houston (9-7) / “Broken” (Seether) – Of course all of the above is contingent on the Texans staying under double-digit wins, and they just might if the injury bug rears its head again. The starting QB, best WR and best defensive player all had serious injuries last season. One of them has left town, but for the two that remain, things seem to be trending negatively in that department. Throw in the loss of a couple good O-linemen and the Texans are my pick to take a step back this season. Sure they might just ride their power running game to 10-6 without breaking a sweat, but maybe some improving quarterback play steals a division W or two along the way, and then it’s a whole new ballgame.
Indianapolis (5-11) /“Even The Losers (Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers) – …get Luck-y sometimes. By all accounts, that certainly appears to be what’s happened here. The Colts have parlayed their one bad season in over a decade into the next great NFL QB. This wouldn’t bother me so much if I didn’t think Luck is going to spend the next decade hammering home the abject stupidity of the Vikings reaching for a mediocre QB instead of blowing it all up and tanking for a high-end one the following season. Got a nagging feeling that this is all going to culminate in Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III facing off in the 2017 Super Bowl while Christian Ponder watches from the boat he bought following his retirement.
I think Colts fans are in for a fun season, with many touchdowns, many interceptions, and a general feeling that something is building for the future. Wish I could say the same for…
Jacksonville (4-12) / “Brick” (Ben Folds) – Blaine’s the brick, and he’s about to drown this team slowly. Or maybe quickly, we’ll see what happens. There’s actually been some preseason buzz about Gabbert looking better, and Justin Blackmon should be a big upgrade at wide receiver. But Blaine Gabbert is the warm blanket of abject failure that comforts me about my own team’s shaky 2nd-year QB, and I’m not willing to give that up yet. Check back with me about 4 PM this Sunday, after he finishes torching our ramshackle secondary for 250 yards and 3 TDs.
I had to take a look back at how this team went 5-11 last year, because every time I saw them, they looked like they’d have trouble beating an egg. Throw out a 41-point, “where-the-eff-did-that-come-from???” explosion against Tampa, and they averaged 16 points in their other 4 wins last season. Unfortunately, Indy won't be as easy to sweep this time around, and their best offensive player just got to camp last week, so that spells a slight step back.
AFC North
Pittsburgh (11-5) / “Truckin” (Grateful Dead) – I’ve let myself be swayed by preseason chatter in the past, the O-line has too many injuries, the QB takes too many hits, the defense is getting old, etc. Yet every year we get to December and there are the Steelers, right in the thick of the playoff hunt, if not the race for homefield. The same thing has happened this year, with Mike Wallace holding out, running backs getting hurt, a rookie offensive lineman lost for the season, still things just keep truckin.
Baltimore (11-5) / “Seen It All Before” (Amos Lee) – Somebody help me out here, is this breakout season #3 or #4 for Joe Flacco? The Ravens will get a wild card, they will go on the road in round one and demolish a “higher” seed, and with their history against the Steelers and Patriots, I should really like their shot at making the Super Bowl. Joe Flacco outplayed Tom Brady last year (albeit against a terrible defense) and had his team an indefensible shank away from going to OT in a conference championship game.
So why is it that I just can’t get behind Flacco as the quarterback of a championship team? His 20 TDs last season? The series of performances that ranged from "blah" to "blech" during the second half? Maybe he will break out, but first they’re going to have to ask him to do more than what he’s done, at the moment he seems a bit too much like the AFC version of Alex Smith.
Cincinnati (8-8) / “It’s Not My Time” (3 Doors Down) – Very intrigued at where this team might go in the next couple of years, but a tougher schedule coupled with sophomore slump from Andy Dalton has me thinking no playoff repeat is in store this year.
Cleveland (4-12) / “The Song Remains The Same” (Led Zeppelin) – I tried to find the Browns more wins, believe me I did. But at the end of the day, each team I compared them against just seemed to have more to like. It’s true they won 4 games with Colt McCoy at QB last season, but now their best defensive player is out for the first 4 games and their starting schedule is a nightmare (PHI, @CIN, BUF, @BAL, @NYG, CIN) Anyway, how can we even be sure Brandon Weeden will be an upgrade?
Rookies are rookies, even those halfway to an AARP card. Find a quarterback Cleveland, for the love of God, we go through this every year, Derek Anderson’s single competent season should be no one’s gold standard!
AFC East
New England (13-3) / “So Close” (Hall & Oates) – A terrible defense looks improved, but haven’t these guys lost quite a bit on the offensive line? It’s tough to say you’re nervous about a team you’re predicting will go 13-3, but a Tom Brady injury changes so many things, the idea of him taking frequent hits is unsettling. The again, this is another team that just seems to soldier on no matter what happens, and Bryant McKinnie’s midsection thinks their schedule is soft, tough to pick against them.
So we’ll pick what usually happens, blaze a trail to the playoffs, then get knocked out just short by a team with a great pass rush that throws you off your game.
Buffalo (9-7) / “Tainted Love” (Soft Cell) – I may be a Vikings fan, but I’m a Bills homer. Every year I talk myself into them finding a way to beat expectations, and every year I’m wrong. Last year they looked golden with a 5-2 record, then melted down so completely you could’ve sworn the entire team was launched into the sun. So what I’m saying is, take this with a grain or ten of salt. Every year, I have to root for one of our brothers in Loserdom, Buffalo or Cleveland, to turn in a season that isn’t a complete steaming turd. Since Cleveland doesn’t look capable, you’re up Buffalo, make your fans proud less profoundly depressed than you usually do.
Is it that crazy to think they can win 9?
Road: Jets, Cleveland, Houston, Indy.
Home: Seattle, Jacksonville, Miami, Tennessee, New England.
The Houston and New England games are tough, but seem possible, if unlikely. Go Bills.
New York Jets (7-9) / “Lido Shuffle” (Boz Scaggs) – I’ve altered the lyrics slightly
Tebow, whoa oh, oh, oh
Sanchez is done, because he blows,Tebow's a waitin' foooor the go oh
Tebow, whoa oh, oh, oh, ohhhh, ohhhh
How this’ll end, nobody knows
Tebow, whoa oh, oh, oh, oh, oh Tebow
Tebow’s probably praying that his time in New York will be a success. Meanwhile, thousands of others are praying that he's an abject failure, if only to avoid the complete insufferability that would be a Tim Tebow-led New York Jets playoff team. Funny how that works.
Rumor has it you’re a merciful God, please, I’m begging you, spare us this.
Miami (3-13) / “All Apologies” (Nirvana) – This is admittedly an opinion that’s been tainted by Hard Knocks viewing, but man does this team look lousy. Joe Philbin seems to have one halftime and postgame speech: That was embarrassing, do better. Shouldn’t we take the fact that he keeps having to give that speech as evidence that either A) They’re not listening or B) This is the best they’ve got to offer? I’m leaning B myself.
(Circling back to the Jets for a moment, if God needs more karmic support on why they should be smote this season, they took the most likeable guy from Hard Knocks and cut him after he blew out his knee in his first practice with the team. Apparently his contract had an injury waiver clause, so he gets squat from them. This made me feel lousy about being a football fan. Somebody get this guy $50k to live on for a year while he gets his knee right, or risk coming back as the elastic in Rob Ryan's underwear during your next life. Injuries are part of the game, I get it, but come on, that’s just awful.)
NFC West
San Francisco (10-6) / “For Whom The Bell Tolls” (Metallica) – Picking the Niners to win 10 games pains me for two reasons. Not only did I wager some weeks back that they wouldn’t hit double-digit wins due to a more difficult schedule, I also hate mediocre QBs who get by on the backs of great defenses.
Trips to Green Bay, New Orleans and New England, home dates with the Lions, Giants and Bears. There’s enough opposing offense there to require Alex Smith to actually take a few chances, right? He only threw 5 interceptions last year, but also only 17 TDs; one of those numbers needs to go way up, nobody wants to see you fling it out of bounds on 3rd and 8, Captain Checkdown. I don’t hate San Fran, but it vexes me whenever a team wins without a playmaking QB, just doesn’t seem right.
Need more fireworks Smith, the good kind or bad, shit or get off the pot time.
Seattle (8-8) / “Hallelujah” (Jeff Buckley) – Getting Tarvaris Jackson off your team should be worth a minimum 2-win bump, but I couldn’t find a 9th win on the schedule. Still, this team looks frisky, with a solid D, decent run game and maybe even a young QB who can make a few plays. Whether that QB is Russell Wilson or Matt Flynn seems immaterial, either one should be an upgrade.
By the way, during this dark period of the franchise history, Vikings fans have got to thank Seattle for those ridiculous quotes about T-Jack not being given a fair shake in Minnesota during training camp last year. We needed a laugh. Between that and making a Godfather offer to Sidney Rice that was so over-the-top they couldn’t even justify stupidly matching it, you’re aces in my book.
St. Louis (4-12) / “Turn The Page” (Bob Seger & The Silver Bullet Band) – Jeff Fisher is now on the scene, how many more bad seasons are we away from Sam Bradford entering the ranks of the “Former High Draft Picks Escorted To The Scrap Heap”? Gotta be kind of a make or break year here, right? They may be reluctant to cut bait after only 3 years, but if the results aren’t better, doesn’t the new coach get antsy to bring in “my guy”?
Arizona (4-12) / “The Pretender” (Jackson Browne) – Are you like me? Do you sit around and wonder how in the hell the Arizona Cardinals won 8 games last season? They went 4-0 in overtime games, that’s how, and that’s not going to happen again. By the way, this what I wrote about the Cards signing Kevin Kolb last year: “Should’ve just signed Kyle Orton and saved the $40 million”
I’m rarely right, so need to point it out when I am.
NFC South
New Orleans (12-4) / “F*ck You” (Cee-Lo Green) – This one will be a case study in how much coaching affects a football team, but there would seem fewer capable of absorbing the blow than the Saints. Starting with a fairly easy schedule out of the gate and having 3 out of 5 (including the opener) at home before a Week 6 bye certainly seems to weigh in their favor. Let the interim coaches get their sealegs in friendly conditions, with Washington, Carolina and Kansas City, before a Week 4 trip to Green Bay, they should have the nerves firmly in check.
Besides, doesn’t this whole situation have to give a team the greatest shot of “everyone’s against us” unity in history? You don't think Drew Brees will be reminding his teammates in every huddle how nobody, particularly the NFL, wants to see them win? I could be wrong, but think they can spin this into an almost positive.
Atlanta (10-6) / “Lie To Me” (Jonny Lang) – Barring injury, the Falcons winning 10 or 11 games seems like a lock. But after the past few years, will that get anyone even remotely excited? This team is the Bizzaro Giants and Matt Ryan is the Bizzaro Joe Flacco. They look fine during the regular season, only to be exposed as an impostor as soon as the playoffs roll around.
I read a defense of this from an Atlanta fan, pointing out that they lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion in each of the last two seasons. While true, that doesn’t do much to soften the blow of HOW they lost, particularly last year’s clunker in the Meadowlands. Guess I will bite one more time Atlanta, but if you go 12-4, then lose by 20 in the divisional round, we’re banning you from the postseason for a few years like they do in college.
Tampa Bay (7-9) / “New Kid In Town” (The Eagles) – New coach, new running back, new offensive linemen, unfortunately the same tough division. Plus they get to face the NFC East. Seems like they should be quite a bit better, but until it can be definitely stated whether Josh Freeman is good or bad, they’re in limbo.
Carolina (6-10) / “Back To Where I Was” (Eric Hutchinson) – Once again, it feels like there should be more wins here, but looking at things on a game-by-game basis makes them hard to find. The Panthers are treading water at the same record because their big move was adding a running back to a team with a great running QB and two good running backs. That being said, they are the front runners for the coveted “Funnest Bad Team To Watch” Award, so that’s something.
NFC North
Green Bay (14-2) / “One Man Wrecking Machine” (Guster) – Now here’s a spot where the opposite was happening, I was desperately trying to talk myself into fewer victories. Then I got to thinking about Aaron Rodgers and couldn’t bring myself to do it. Someone needs to explain to me why a team that went 15-1 last season plays the first two weeks and 3 of its 4 toughest games on home turf. I’d like Chicago’s chances Week 2 at Soldier Field, much less at Lambeau.
Chicago (10-6) / “Time Is Running Out” (Papa Roach) – Could be a fun Week 17 if I’m right and the Lions-Bears tilt in Detroit is win-or-go-home. The Bears defense is old, and might fade late in the season. The offensive line needs to play a lot better to keep Jay Cutler in one piece. But with that said, I’m buying in 100% on the offseason additions of Michael Bush and Brandon Marshall taking their offense from good to elite.
Detroit (9-7) / “Ironman” (Black Sabbath) – The song selection is intended to be ironic, since I couldn’t be more wary of Matthew Stafford’s fragile health. On a team with no running game to speak of, there doesn’t seem to be much chance a backup could come in a wring a victory or two out of a few weeks in the caretaker role. But you can’t ignore the upside either, and if the defense improves, the video game passing attack has the potential to make doubters look pretty stupid.
Minnesota (5-11) / "Sad Songs" (Elton John) - I'll keep this brief, as we'll have the next 4 months to berate their ineptitude, and simply say I'm not expecting much. There is one thing I'd really like to happen though, because it will fill me with endless glee. Please let the Vikings beat a Packers team with nothing on the line when they come to town in Week 17. Not because beating a playoff-team that's benched all it's starters will provide any kind of comfort at the end the terrible season. Just because it will eventually lead to me overhearing a Vikings fan talk trash to a Packer fan about that game as if it meant something.
And then I will know who the stupidest person in this state truly is.
NFC East
Philadelphia (10-6) / “Fly Like An Eagle" (Steve Miller Band) - Perhaps a tad obvious with the song, but sometimes it's just that easy. You might be asking how I can fret over the health of Stafford and Schaub, yet assume Vick will remain upright long enough to win a division. Frankly I don't really have a good answer for that, just a gut feeling. Call it the Miami Heat Model, if you will, as it seems like a bunch of big names joining up always need a year to gel and have the hype subside before reaching the original expectations.
I just hope that new flak jacket is as good as advertised.
New York Giants (9-7) / “Respect” (Aretha Franklin) – Did these records before Wednesday's game, and frankly don't feel any different based on what I saw there. Might be falling into the trap that everyone does with the Giants, getting bored with them and finding reasons why they'll fall off. But they were an up-and-down team last year, so why should this one be any different? I'm just betting on other ones having fewer injuries and raising the bar on qualifying for the postseason.
Dallas (9-7) / “Theme From Dallas” (Unknown) – Did you know that when you enter "theme from" into Google, the theme from Dallas does not appear in the top 10 results? I now do, and I find that disconcerting, as it's one of the all-time badass opening themes.
Here are the top 10:
1. A Summer Place
2. Ice Castles
3. Rocky
4. Shaft
5. A Love Story
6. Jaws
7. Mahogany
8. Chariots Of Fire
9. Top Gun
10. The Godfather
First off, what the hell are Nos. 1, 2 and 7? No. 5 I had heard of, but couldn't place Curiosity got the better of me, and let me just say they are all atrocious. I have no idea who is Googling these themes with such frequency, most people over 80 typically struggle with computers. Slow, depressing piano music does not a theme song make. If you want slow piano, there are better sources, try guys named Bach, Beethoven and Mozart for starters.
So no Dallas, which maybe I could handle, if not for the other glaring omissions. No Cheers? No Hill St. Blues? NO STAR WARS??? There are some solid themes on that list, sure, but how can those three not make the cut in any theme Top 10? This is Exhibit A in what's wrong with America.
Throw out the four crap ones, add Dallas and the other three I've cited, and you've got yourself a list worth having. I've linked to all of them for you listening pleasure, if you do not immediately click on Rocky and start shadow boxing, Top Gun and start playing air guitar or Chariots Of Fire and start slo-mo running, we cannot be friends.
Anyway, what were we talking about again? Oh yeah, 9-7.
Washington (7-9) / “Running On Empty" (Jackson Browne) - At this point, I'm talking about me, not the team.
AFC Wild Card - Baltimore over Tennessee, Denver over Buffalo
NFC Wild Card - Atlanta over Philly, Chicago over San Francisco
AFC Divisional - New England over Denver, Baltimore over Pittsburgh
NFC Divisional - Green Bay over Chicago, Atlanta over New Orleans
AFC Championship - Baltimore over New England
NFC Championship - Green Bay over Atlanta
Super Bowl - Green Bay over Baltimore
Yes, that might be a reverse jinx.
