Time to panic?

So the Twins limped into the All-Star break losing 2 of 3 to Detroit and looking bad in the process.  Their closest approximation to an ace got shelled for 7 runs in less than two innings last Friday, and their closest approximation to a AA journeyman did about the same the day after.  It was only the continued mastery of Carl Pavano over the Detroit Tigers that kept the local nine from falling a season-high 5 games back of first-place heading into the All-Star break, and delayed the destruction of those stupid Joe Mauer statues all over downtown in a LeBron James-style show of frustration. 

The pitching is a mess, the offense is not much better, thanks in no small part to the struggles of the reigning MVP, and it's generally appearing that we're headed for a Wildesque "if only the team played as pretty as the building looks" type of season.  3 1/2 games out, and now looking up at two teams in the standings (including the red hot White Sox) following two months of baseball that ranged from "highly mediocre" to "downright awful".  Not to mention the cherry on top of the turd sundae this past weekend, as the Cliff Lee Sweepstakes was lost to Texas.  So the question has to be asked: Is it time to panic?

Now I know that less than a week ago I described this point in the baseball season as a time when "any reaction is an overreaction", and 88 games in with 74 left to play is not exactly crunch time.  But downplaying the Twins struggles as a blip on the radar runs into problems for anyone who's actually been watching the games, and knows even a bit about baseball.  Unless the front of the jersey says "Yankees", grinding your way to the top of a division takes one thing above all else, pitching, particularly of the starting variety.  Starters don't have to be Cy Young-caliber every time out, but have to give you a chance to win the game, the reason "quality start" has become an important term in the baseball vernacular is because it's what's required to give your team a shot. 

A 4.50 ERA, which is what the quality start definition of 3 earned runs or fewer in 6 innings pitched equates to, is not exactly All-Star caliber, but hitting those numbers 75% of the time is what's required to have a good baseball team.  Some nights you'll run into a tough opposing pitcher, some nights the bats will go cold, some night the bullpen will blow it, but all these eventualities can be buffered into 6 wins out of 10 pretty easily, as long as your starters give you that chance most times out.  Lately the Twins haven't been hitting 50% on that mark, in fact the number of games in which they've pitched the team out of things in the first 3 innings is pretty staggering.

Going back over the starters for the pitchers in the rotation that have not been holding up their end (read: anyone not named Pavano), the performance since the beginning of June is pretty alarming.

The first number in each set is innings pitched, the second is earned runs allowed:

Liriano - 1.2 / 7, 7 / 1, 6 / 6, 5 / 3, 7 / 3, 5 / 3, 5 / 1

Blackburn - 4 / 7, 6.1 / 4, 7 / 4, 3.2 / 5, 1.2 / 8, 7 / 2, 2.2 / 5, 3.2 / 5

Slowey - 6.1 / 5, 6 / 1, 6 / 5, 1.2 / 7, 4.2 / 5, 7 / 0, 7 / 1

Baker - 6 / 5, 7 / 1, 4.1 / 6, 6 / 5, 7 / 0, 5 / 5, 7.1 / 4


In the last 29 starts between these four pitchers, 10 (34%) have been quality.  While Blackburn is the worst offender, having only one of eight starts meeting the quality definition, he's hardly alone in the blame department, as none have registered good games in the majority of their turns the last six weeks.

Taking things a bit further, I'd offer up the definition of "mediocre" (less that a run per inning) and "channel changing/remote hurling/your mother should've aborted you/I can't believe you're a professional pitcher, I think you should be working at the snack bar" (complete and total butchering of any chance to win) starts to flesh things out a bit more.  By comparison to the 10 quality, the Twins have had 8 passable and 11 meltdown starts in the same time frame.  You don't have to be much of a ball guy to understand that is a recipe for a team that's going nowhere.  So, it is with that long-winded and essential caveat that we may begin our discussion of what is possible in the second half.

A look at the last five years of AL Central Division history provide the following picture:

Year   88-Game W-L   Place  GB    Twins W-L    Place    GB    Div. Winner    Div. Winner W-L


2005        48-40             2nd      11         83-79                   3rd         16         Chicago                99-63

2006        48-40             3rd      12         96-66                    1st           -          Minnesota            96-66

2007        45-43             3rd        8         79-83                    3rd         17.5      Cleveland             97-66

2008        50-38             2nd        .5        88-75                   2nd           1         Chicago               89-74

2009        44-44             3rd        4          87-76                   1st            -         Minnesota            87-76

2010        46-42             3rd        3.5          ?                         ?             ?                ?                      ?



Time to panic?  Short answer is probably not.  Longer answer is here the Twins are, right smack dab in the middle of where they always seem to be about this time, and it's a question of whether or not another team steps up to take it.  If not, and they allow the Twins to hang around into September, then I gotta say I like those odds.

The White Sox have been on an amazing run, and are on pace to finish 91-71 (I picked them to be 92-70, just sayin), but can we really expect the 25-5 pace they've been on over their last 30 games to continue?  Especially considering the loss of Jake Peavy for the season?  The Tigers have also played stellar ball, but are already down one reliever to injury, and have gotten big first halves from a couple young ballplayers who might have trouble keeping it up.  About the only thing we know for sure is, this division is going to play a lot tougher this season than most people predicted.  The average wins needed for the division title over the past five years has been 93.6, but it looks to be playing closer to the 2005-07 number of 97.3 than the 2008-09 figure of 88.

The Twins have been here before and bounced back, but it must be acknowledged that they've done so in some of the easier seasons the division has seen.  Playing .600 ball the rest of the way (admittedly a difficult task) would leave Chicago with 93 wins on the season, a total that the Twins would need a .635 clip to match.  Can it be done?  Of course, look no further than 2006 for proof.  Will it be done?  About the only thing we can say for sure is not without vastly improved pitching, and lacking a Johan Santana-type, the odds are slim.  The good news is that only two teams in the majors have played .600 ball so far this season, so the odds of the Whities doing it are slim as well, but even under this worst-case scenario, us Twins fans can find some history that offers hope.

So what the heck, allow me to play the optimist role for a moment and say we've got lousy pitching so far, not much from our MVP catcher, step-back seasons from a couple other big sticks and quite a few injuries.  Gardy is a second-half manager and this team has beaten longer odds to pull through on several occasions, I think they've got a run in them yet.

On the other hand, did you SEE those pitching stats?

Hell, I have no idea what's going to happen, anyone up for Game 163, Part III?