Playoffs? PLAYOFFS???

Alright, first off, because it has to be done, an all-time classic.

Seems like only yesterday I was kicking off the NFL season with a few dozen terrible predictions, now here we are on the eve of the wild card round.  My performance was pretty mediocre, only 6 out of 12 playoff teams identified, with a few correct hits (KC, NE, BAL) and a lot of huge whiffs (PIT, SF, DAL, MIN, TB winning one game, seriously?).  Week 15 was a perfect illustration of the knife edge that is the NFL season, had the Giants simply held onto a 21-point second half lead over Philly, they'd likely be here, another team would be at home, and I'd likely have one more correct answer.

But as I've said many times, that's what's great about this league, and I've never been more grateful for that than I am now, as a fan of a 6-10 pending rebuilding project.  You never know from one year to the next which squads will rise and fall, KC went from 4 wins to a division title, no reason there can't be some hope entering next season...unless you're a Carolina fan of course. 

The one thing we all saw coming?  The NFC West was BAD!  Maybe it surprised us a bit by going even lower than we thought it could go, but I think most people were prepared for an epic stinkbomb.  At least Sam Bradford looked competent in leading the Rams out of the wilderness, perhaps some of those 3 PM West Coast games will be worth watching in the coming years.  I penned the following before Week One of the season, and it makes me chuckle to look back at it now:

NFC West
Worst. Division. Ever. What was wrong with 3 divisions anyway? 3 champs, 3 wild cards, none of this “terrible division champs sneaking into the playoffs with an 8-8 record” garbage. Is it going to take a 7-9 division champion getting a home playoff game against an 11-5 wild card before this gets fixed? Anyway, somebody’s gotta win this thing.

So what's happening tomorrow?  The 11-5 Saints are going on the road to face the 7-9 Seahawks, you really can't overemphasize how silly all of this is, count me in the camp that says a minimum of 8 wins should be required to make the playoffs.  If you want to look back an laugh at my other prognostications that were quite so great, you can do so here.

Sort of fell of the pick train the last couple of weeks or so, it was the holidays, I was traveling, you know how it goes.  Ben and I made Week 16 picks in a bar in Phoenix, both of us going 9-7.  How did the records end up?

Brent: 63-54-1 (.534 winning %)
Ben: 71-60-2 (.530 winning %)
Pat: 107-99-2 (.514 winning %)

I'd make the argument that I had the tougher run at things because I started picking early in the season, when there was less info to go on, but I think when these guys started, I was 12 games over .500.  The more you know (or think you know), the worse you do.  That sums up football gambling in a nutshell.

So now we move on to handicapping the Wild Card round, but first I'd like to clear up one point of confusion: These are the 2010 NFL Playoffs

Trying to discuss a playoff game with someone too often sounds like a Muslim and Christian debating when the Bronze Age came to a close.  You'd think it would be simpler for us football fans, being that we can at least agree on what year it is currently, but that doesn't seem to be the case.  Frankly if I had my way, there'd be a law passed, officially defining the fact that an NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl are tagged with the year in which the season began, regardless of when they actually take place.  I know it's going to be a little weird once the NFL moves to a 20-game schedule and we're referring to a game that takes place in early March as if it happened 3 months earlier, but trust me, it will save us all a lot of headaches.  Write you're Congressman and tell them we need to package this as part of the 2011 Sports Omnibus Bill, along with a provision outlawing bowl games taking place after New Year's Day that don't feature at least one ranked team and the DH.  That's right, I went there, I like pitchers hitting.

Back to the matter at hand, Wild Card weekend, the second best NFL weekend of the year.  Typically Divisional weekend is the culmination of everything we've been following for the previous 20-some Sundays.  The cream rises to the top and we get to witness 4 games played by good teams playing their best football.  Some years, like last year for instance, things get flipped, with the Wild Card providing the superior drama and Divisional games ending up anti-climactic.  Championship Sunday is always the same, one classic and one clunker; but that usually stems from some epic upset the weekend before, so we let that slide.

As it's name would imply, Wild Card weekend can be a tough one to peg.  Sure the broad strokes are there for anyone to see, and sometimes a flat-out lousy team shows up as an easy mark (looking at you Seattle), but most of the time, confusion reigns.  Closest thing to a pattern emerging is one shootout, one grind-it-out defensive struggle, one upset and one knew-it-all-along game. 

Sometimes you get a bunch of blowouts, which is always a buzzkill, but usually even that type of weekend provides enough moments to leave you satisfied with what you saw.  I'd liken it to a mediocre move with a redeeming scene or two, like Halle Berry being topless in Swordfish, or Terri Hatcher being topless in Heaven's Prisoners, or Halle Berry (again) getting aggressively and unexpectedly throwndown by Bill Bob Thornton in Monster's Ball.  Sense the pattern developing here?  Some things are just game-changers and can validate two hours that would've otherwise been considered wasted.  I mean I don't want to see Black Swan, but I will, and you know exactly why.  And it will be worth it.  And that's what I'm talking about.

(Matter of fact, it would be a great idea to repackage all of the scenes like this into it's own two-hour film, call it "The one part you wanted to see when you walked into this piece of crap" or something along those lines with more brevity.  I mean how great would it be to say to somebody, "No, I didn't see Black Swan, but I did see the Mila Kunis-Natalie Portman lesbian part".  Then again, I suppose that's what the Internet is for.  Speaking of which, I'll be back in a jiffy.)

So moving from, which of this weekend's games is which?

The knew-it-all-along

New Orleans -11 over SEATTLE
Play this game with me, how high does this line have to go before you're comfortable taking Seattle?  At least 14, right?  Likely to 14 1/2.  This would appear to be easy money for anyone interested in making some.  Sure the Seahawks are playing at home, sure Matt Hasselbeck is returning (bad move in my estimation, I think God helped them get past St. Louis because Charlie Whitehurst reminded him of his son), but do you really think Seattle is going to do anything but show up and get crushed here?  Similar to last season, when we all tried to talk ourselves into Philly bouncing back after getting annihilated Week 17 at Dallas, the writing is on the wall here.  Sometimes you just need to take what is given.

Two stats I heard this week piqued my interest about this game:

1. Nobody in football uses big blitzes (basically bringing the house) more than the Saints.  No QB in football has a higher passer rating against the big blitz than Matt Hasselbeck
2. All of the Seahawks nine losses have come by 15 points or more

#2 is obviously my go-to stat of the week, this is a team that knows how to get blown out and has proven that repeatedly.  That's something you can't teach.  But then again why would you want to.

The upset

KANSAS CITY +3 over Baltimore
I've liked the Chiefs to cover all week, but today I decided that I'm all in on an outright win.  The combo platter of home dog, strong running game, concerns about Baltimore's pass offense and simply wanting it to be so have finally pushed me over the edge.  Sure KC is flawed, they just got worked by the Raiders in a game where it appeared they might've been trying to get their QB killed.  But I think to be getting points at home, a team should either really stink or be really overmatched, both are the case with Seattle, but I don't think either applies here.

There is a strength-on-strength problem for the Chiefs to be sure, the Ravens run D is always stout and could likely turn them into a one-dimensional team.  But this season hasn't been like most, teams have been able to get to them at times and KC runs the ball better than most.  So I'm picking the upset, even though it probably spells doom for the poor Chiefs, but hey, things have worked out so far.

The grinder

INDIANAPOLIS -3 over New York Jets
Seems odd to be mentioning "Indianapolis" and "defensive struggle" in the same breath, but that's just what I'm feeling.  To clarify, I don't think there will be no points scored, in fact I'm expecting something in the 24-20 range.  But I do think everything these teams do get will be hard to come by, and will take a toll on whoever wins that they won't recover from going into the next round.

The biggest reason I'm rolling with Indy is Peyton Manning, obviously.  But the second biggest is that their run defense, which was a trainwreck most of the season, has been surprisingly competent these past few weeks.  Chris Johnson and MoJo were both held down by the Colts D recently, and if they can do the same job on the Jets running game, then it's on Mark Sanchez to find a way.  And if you know anything about me, it's that I do not put my faith in Mark Sanchez.

Not to mention the Jets D has left me cold in recent weeks, with a whole lotta points surrendered to the Pats and Bears.  They beat a banged-up Steelers team and smacked Buffalo, but all in all, I think Indy will take care of business at home in a tight one.

The shootout

Green Bay +3 over PHILADELPHIA
Went back and forth a few times here before settling on the team I felt had the superior defense.  Michael Vick is the ultimate wild card (no pun intended), and Philly's other playmakers aren't that far behind, but I feel like he's banged up and will be just one step slow.

The call here is Green Bay goes up big, can't hold the lead, Philly rallies furiously, but comes up just short.  Should be a great game, and I'd like nothing better than to see the outcome go the other way.  But I've had the Packers winning this thing since day one, and despite a season of ups and downs, don't see any reason to change that prediction now. Man I hope I'm wrong though.

Anyway, enjoy what should be a great weekend of football.