Wednesday, January 5, 2011

2010 State of the 'Ville

Now is the winter of our discontent



Made glorious summer by this son of York;


And all the clouds that lowered upon our house


In the deep bosom of the ocean buried.

- William Shakespeare, Richard III


Most people aren’t aware that when Shakespeare penned that “winter of our discontent” line, he was talking about the Minnesota Wild.

Well that's not entirely true, but it does seem to sum up the current circumstances pretty well, doesn't it?  Although this passage is typically thought of as describing a bad situation, it’s actually quite the opposite. The title character isn’t lamenting the current tough times, but describing the resurgence that brought him out of it, a pleasant thought to those of us still mired in the muck. The idea of deep-sixing our troubles to the bottom of the ocean is a pleasant one, those who count ourselves fans of Minnesota sports are faced with the grim reality that we’re still stuck deep in an extremely unpleasant winter. Both literally and figuratively.

For all the debate and discussion that goes into following sports, one fact can’t be debated: If you’re a Minnesota sports fan, 2010 was a rough one. If this year had been a wrestling match, it would have been quite lopsided. We started off by getting hit by a haymaker early (NFC Championship), and took a kick in the ribs while lying on the mat (Joe Nathan injury). Just when we got up to one knee and mounted a rally with a few rabbit punches to the opponent’s gut (Gopher hoops Big Ten tourney run), the heel manager threw a handful of salt in our eyes and applied an illegal choke hold while the ref was distracted in the neutral corner (every Wild or Wolves game playing out the string during the last month of the season).

Yet despite these underhanded tactics we soldiered on, drawing even and even gaining the upper hand (Twins 2nd-half surge) as the match wore on. But then came the steel chair shot (Yankees), the splash off the top rope (Vikings season) and that was all she wrote. The book on the past year was closed perfectly this past weekend with lackluster efforts by the Gophers and Wild, capped by a Vikings loss to the perennial doormat Lions, leaving them to end the season in last place for the first time in 20 years.  By definition, things are at rock bottom.

So here we are, sitting in a tub of ice, licking our wounds and hoping there’s another title shot somewhere on the horizon. There will be no main event anytime soon, but we’ve either gotta believe we can work our way back, or it’s time to hang it up entirely. In the perpetual theme of this burg, it’s time to look at where we are and where we’re going. Much like Mark McGwire, I’m not here to talk about the past…if for no other reason than I find it greatly depressing. Instead, here’s one guy’s critique on what the future may (hopefully) hold:

The University of Minnesota
Football is a mess and just got a new coach.  Hockey is a mess and potentially in line for a new coach very soon.  The Gopher hoops team looked to be the one saving grace of the state sports scene, but after a lackluster start to the Big Ten season, and today's word that guard Devoe Joseph will likely be leaving the team.  And to think 2011 started off so well, with a 10-hour drinking binge, who knew it would go south so fast?

Although some Gopher apologists will claim otherwise, I just can't shake the feeling that this is a university which doesn't care all that much about sports.  I know that the stats show they are in the middle of the pack for cash outlays on their various programs, and that they just worked hard to get some facilities built, but it just doesn't feel like they're committed.  Sure, the mission of a university is supposed to be about education, but too often it almost seems like the administration treats their teams as a necessary evil.

Now I'm not saying you need to go all Ohio State here and throw all integrity to the wind, and I also don't have any concrete examples that demonstrate sports not being a priority.  But the track record unfortunately doesn't lie, so you can either chalk up all this futility to pure bad luck or assume there is some systemic flaw in how the university does things.  Frankly, random chance should've dictated more success by this point, so I lean toward the latter.

Minnesota Vikings
Joe Webb was looking like the perfect 18-hole drive that almost makes you forget a day spent digging through tall grass in search of shanks. Oh the whole, those days stink, but that one last sliver of hope seems to show up and remind you why you showed up in the first place.  Unfortunately, as I'm all too familiar with, sometimes you follow up that perfect drive by duck-hooking it into the woods anyway.  The  you're right back in the same miserable place you started.

The longer-term hope that came from the Week 16 upset in Philly was pretty much all extinguished during an ugly Week 17 showing.  The "Joe Webb, OB of the future" campaign was downgraded to "Joe Webb, keep him on the roster, but find somebody else too" in a matter of minutes.  Since bad games from young QBs are going to be inevitable, perhaps it was good that things ended the way they did, with a reminder that this team is entering the offseason sorely in need of a competent quarterback.  Seems as though that's been the case forever.

Names are flying around, and that's a debate there will be much time to delve into down the line, but I'm just not sure using a first-round QB is the answer.  Andrew Luck won't be available, even if he does enter the draft (Anybody else not a fan of the phrase "comes out"?  Every time I hear a talking head say "if so-and-so comes out this year" it makes me think that if he does, guys are going to be giving him some funny looks in the locker room.  Let's just stick with "declares" or "enters" the draft, "goes pro" if you feel it's necessary, okay?), Cam Newton is Vince Young 2.0, Jake Locker fell off the face of the Earth and Ryan Mallet seems like a classic too-good-to-slide/too-flawed-to-draft QB in the Cade McNown mold.  And I felt that way about him before he played 4 quarters last night looking like his feet were encased in cement.

There are plenty of Vikings fans who’s opinions I respect that have been clamoring to draft a QB for years now. Many times I agreed with them, tired of the stopgaps the team was forced to employ time after time. It would’ve been nice to have another option waiting in the wings these past few years to blunt the Gus Frerottes and Brooks Bollingers of the world, but unfortunately, Childress wouldn’t bring in anyone that could be considered a challenger to T-Jack. This was either because he thought he had his guy, or his ego wouldn’t allow him to admit a mistake. Probably a bit of both. But at any rate, it’s immaterial now, because now were up s**t creek, without even the thought of an aging Mississippi gunslinger riding in on his John Deere tractor to save us.
But does that mean we should jump on the first young signal caller we see? Given the state of the team from top to bottom, that would be like putting a Mercedes hood ornament on a rusted-out Datsun. Say what you will about the recent spate of rookie successes, they didn’t exactly do it on their own, a good bit of the groundwork was laid prior to their arrival. Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, all of these guys stepped into situations that will be superior to what any rookie with face with the Vikings next season. Perhaps Sam Bradford is an exception, but anything occurring in the NFC West gets an asterisk. It would be one thing if the Purple were just thin on defense, losing games isn’t the problem. The problem is this offense line getting a rookie QB through 16 games without getting his confidence and/or clavicle shattered. Disagree if you want, but I think the foundation of the team needs some work before we worry about the trimmings.

But that’s a conversation for another day, the only point that needs to be remembered is that this team is pretty much as low as it’s been in the past couple of decades. I like the coach/GM combo, like some of the young guys on the roster, but doubt we’re looking at a quick fix here. Good news is, nowhere to go but up!



Minnesota Wild/Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wild suck.

They suck more than a snowstorm during rush hour, the annual influx of idiots at the gym following New Years and 7-9 NFL playoff teams.

They suck more than the music of Maroon 5 and the fact that the music of Tesla is unavailable on iTunes.

They suck more than Rex Ryan with a faceful of women’s toes.

It’s hard to believe, but they suck more than the Timberwolves.

Although both teams currently reside, and will likely remain, mired at the bottom of the standings this season, the comparison ends there. Instead we’re offered a perfect contrast between two lousy teams traveling in opposite directions.

The Wild are capped-out, buried in bad contracts and play an uninspiring style. Their players are mundane and not one of them seems like a budding star who the franchise can build around. Top off all that with sky-high ticket prices that go up every year as the team gets worse, and you’ve got one dysfunctional picture to sort out.

The Wolves on the other hand, although no better in the Won/Lost sense, seem to be finally creating some momentum after 5 years spent climbing out of the rubble. Sure they blow one 4th quarter lead after another, but only a season ago, they wouldn’t have had a sniff in many of these games. Michael Beasley and Kevin Love look like potential franchise building block, the Super Spaniard is on the horizon, along with another lottery pick. In the immortal words of Lou Brown, there’s 3 or 4 potential All-Stars there…okay, well maybe not, but they’re getting better!

So there you have it, one team stinks in a good way, the other in a bad, funny how things work out. Just goes to show you the importance of expectations and setting things up for the long haul. A look at the Wolves offers a whiff of potential, the Wild only the stench of stagnation. Sometimes you need to blow it up completely to get yourself on decent footing going forward. The Wolves embraced this and tanked out, the Wild signed Halfthat, and here we are.

But hey, the arena’s still cool, so they got that going for them. Which is nice

Minnesota Twins
Ahh yes, the one squad that is worthy of our faith and consistently rewards it by making the right calls to deliver success...at least until October starts.

Much has been made of the Twins postseason failures, and it's valid criticism.  But in terms of proving me wrong, they are far and away the class of this town.  Every offseason I piss and moan, spreading doom and gloom about the state of the team, then they come out and beat expectations.  It's gotten to be one of the few dependable things in my sports universe.

So I will refrain from complaining too aggressively about the lackluster offseason we've witness thusfar, but I will say one thing: I don't want Carl Pavano.

Now at this point you're problem saying, "What exactly is your theory about sports?  As long as you do nothing, you can't make a mistake?"  And I could see your point, but have no fear that I will be going on record with plenty of recommendations before it's all said and done. 

My attitude on this stuff always stems from one question: What is the ceiling?

Is the ceiling on the Twins season significantly lowered by swapping out a Nick Blackburn for a Pavano?  I don't necessarily think so, unless you disagree with my thinking that a) Another division title followed by a first round playoff loss is no great shakes or b) Carl Pavano doesn't have the stuff to beat good lineups in the playoffs.  If you agree on those two points, you can't possibly support the idea of forking over $10 million per year for the next 2-3 to keep him.

Even in this new era of $100 million payrolls, limits will eventually be reached.  I said going into last year that 12-12 with 200 innings would be a great year out of Pavano, and he significantly outperformed that.  But even if he duplicates that season twice over, this team will still be no closer to it's ultimate goal of winning a title.  Perhaps $10 million doesn't get us the difference-maker that's needed, but add it to $12 million from Nathan and $12 more from Cuddyer coming off the books, and pretty soon we're talking real money, #1 starter money, ace money. 

Those players have all been solid contributors to a good decade of Twins baseball, but at this point the team would have higher upside if we'd swapped them for Zach Greinke, a corner outfield and some solid relief arms.  Upwards of $30 million could certainly accomplish that, which is why I urge restraint in putting anything long-term on the books.

So there it is, the admittedly bleak look at our local teams entering 2011.  Will this year be better than next year?  I'm not sure.  Although I am willing to bet the gap between expectations and performance will be a lot narrower.  Guess which one is going to move more? :)

It's all about the silver lining here in Loserville.

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