Divisional Picks

Kind of blogged out this week, so just a quick version of picks for this weeks Divisional Round, aka The Best Weekend in Football.  After going 1-3 last week, I will be employing the Costanza Theory on this weekend's games, meaning going with the opposite of my intuition.  Hopefully that improves my fortunes.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
The description of this matchup allows me to employ one of my favorite football words, slobberknocker.  There really is no other way to describe it when these two teams meet.  As lopsided as the score was last week against Kansas City, it seemed like the Ravens D still had some issues and the Chiefs just played right into their hands.  Pittsburgh is unlikely to do so.  Steelers should win a tight game here, but since I'm the one saying that, bet the house on Baltimore.  The pick: Baltimore +3 over PITTSBURGH


Green Bay @ Atlanta
I was a big Green Bay backer all week, just wasn't convinced Atlanta's defense was on the same level.  Figured this would be the contrarian take given Atlanta is a one seed, playing at home, had already beaten GB this season, etc.  Now every analyst on Earth seems to be backing Green Bay, which is a very dangerous thing, usually being on the same side as a huge majority is the best way to guarantee you end up incorrect.  So I've been waffling the past few days, but in the end, I still feel like the Packers win which, when given the Costanza treatment, means I'm picking the Falcons.  The pick: ATLANTA -1.5 over Green Bay

Seattle @ Chicago
Given how things have unfolded thus far, I expect that Matt Hasselbeck will come down with hysterical blindness when he wakes up at the hotel tomorrow morning, then face an Atlanta team that lost Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Roddy White to injury the week before.  That's how things have been rolling for the Bears lately, one break after another, so why expect things to go differently here?  Chicago D won't completely piss down their leg like the Saints, so there's no reason to expect a Seattle to win or even cover.  Sure they won the first meeting, but that was a long time ago, in a football galaxy far, far away.  I say Bears, but Costanza sez 'Hawks, and he's smarter than me. The pick: Seattle +10 over CHICAGO.

New York Jets @ New England
Another ominous "everybody likes one side" game, and worse yet, this one is supposed to be a blowout.  All the chirping coming from the Jets side seems dumb, do they expect to get the Patriots off their game?  This is a team with some new additions, but the crucial parts have been through many playoff wars, some comments about the quarterback being an a-hole is going to rattle them?  Seems dumb to me, and just the kind of motivation that the Pats use to eviscerate teams.  Did I mention it was 45-3 the last time they played?  I'm going with the majority and saying New England by a comfortable margin, which of course means New York by a tight one.  The pick: New York Jets +9 over NEW ENGLAND.