Well, it’s that time of year again, time to put down some predictions on paper for how the Twins season will unfold. As I wrote last month, there’s really not much expected out of this year’s edition, given the presence of an imposing Tigers team and several pitchers who are about as exciting as frozen waffles. Plain, no syrup.
But these are the Twins, and it must be said that they have on occasional beaten expectations quite significantly. Unlike the other teams in town, who always seem to barely meet them or fall woefully short. It’s true that last year’s 99-loss version was a bit of a debacle, but these are the worst-to-first Twins we’re talking about here, and anything is possible when they take the field. (Theoretically at least, from a gambling standpoint, it’s best to stick with the assumption that they’ll suck. Hope costs nothing, just don’t use it as the basis for wagering.)
As we kick off this season, with the moderate hope of a return to respectability, can we find some things to get fired up about? Some kind of positivity to cling to? Sure we can, and it starts with quite a few guys who have proven track records of success…albeit none of it coming very recently. The other day, I was mocked by some friends after insinuating there were some reasons for optimism surrounding this club. They’ve apparently branded me as incapable of positivity when it comes to the local sports teams, a charge I resent deeply and feel is entirely undeserved.
After all, who could possibly be more capable of positivity than a guy who’s been repeatedly kicked in his figurative seeds by the teams he loves, yet keeps coming back? By definition you need some deep well of inner sanguinity (some may say delusion) just to keep picking yourself up off the mat and talking yourself into the possibility of success year after year. Sure, I may turn on teams viciously once they fall short of my expectations, but that’s only because it stings so deeply to see something you’ve poured your heart into end up being such a colossal disappointment. I’d assume it’s a lot like raising children in that regard.
But now is not the time to dwell on the failures of yesteryear, in fact it’s not even the time to dwell on the failures of yestermonth or yesterweek. In Loserville, we keep plowing ahead. Once you’ve walked this far into the desert, there’s no turning back, you just have to keep hoping the salvation lies over the next dune! Or maybe the next couple of dunes in this case, it’s gotta be out there someplace, just keep walking, trust me.
With that, the Over/Unders for your 2012 Minnesota Twins:
Wins – 81 (Over)
Starting with the big one first, and I have them at just over, with a 83-79 finish. Suppose that’s optimism, but doesn’t really feel like it. On the other hand, calling the playoffs definitely feels like delusion, so I suppose it qualifies. Vegas currently has the team at 73 ½ wins for their over/under, so perhaps this is a case where optimism could be profitable. Then again, getting back to the multitude of ‘Ifs’ plaguing this roster, the wager certainly wouldn’t be sizeable.
Joe Mauer plate appearances – 550 (Over)
Joe Mauer batting average – .325 (Over)
Joe Mauer home runs – 12 (Push)
I’m all in on a Joe Mauer resurgence, as you kind of have to be if you’re thinking this will be an above-.500 ballclub. For context, his last 5 years of plate appearances have been 471, 633, 606, 584 and 333; it appears that 130 games is the magic number, and the Twins will need at least that out of him to be decent. Mauer has also hit over .325 in 4 of the last 6 seasons, so that seems like a lock if he’s healthy. The home runs probably will never come in Target Field, but that’s okay when you consider….
Times Scott Baker and Matt Capps will make me want to pour gasoline over something and light it on fire – 25 1/2 (Over)
Went with the symbolic imagery there, intended to invoke what they do to the team’s chances of winning on a regular basis. Ironically, this one might finish under due to the fact that they’re both performing so poorly, the opportunities for disappointment might not be there. Baker is nursing a sore elbow and Capps is nursing the fact that he’s Matt Capps. Could be that one never pitches and the other pitches his way out of the closer’s role quickly. Also ironic (or is it tragic?), both of these guys are on my fantasy baseball team, not sure how that happened.
Games attended, pre All-Star break: 5 (Over)
Games attended, post All-Star break/free tickets: 3 (Over)
Games attended, post All-Star break/paid tickets: 1 (Under)
I believe this one explains itself. Random tickets should be blowing down First Avenue by September, just snatch one off the ground and head into the park.
Justin Morneau plate appearances – 500 (Over)
Justin Morneaue batting average – .300 (Over)
Justin Morneau home runs – 25 (Over)
Again, do you see how optimistic I can be? Or maybe this is just hope overruling sense, but I don’t care. Please let the old Morneau be back, please, please, please, please, please…
Carl Pavano ERA – 4.00 (Over)
Straight ball, they hit it very much. If it’s under 3.00, I’ll buy you an SUV.
Frank Liriano Wins – 13 (Hmm…contract year says yes…history as a head case says no…screw it, Over)
But just barely, something like 14-9 sounds right, followed by him getting grossly overpaid, lazing around all winter and coming into spring training with his new team throwing 83 MPH fastballs. Gotta love those rites of spring.
Phantom Scott Baker injuries – 5 (Over)
Kind of cheating here, we’re already at 1.
Times Twins fans bitch about Delmon Young being lost for nothing, despite totally loathing him almost the entire time he was here – 1 million (Over)
Way, way over. Although they won't miss the old horse-on-rollerskates act he employed in playing the outfield. Sadly, there are no videos of Delmon fielding on YouTube (incidentally, top 2 results are "DY throws bat at umpire" and "DY kicks catcher"), so you need to just cherish the memories. If any such video does exist, I demand that someone put it to this music immediately. Then I can watch it, and laugh uproariously.
Times I exclaim angrily "Why is it we're the one team in baseball that can't develop a single decent middle infielder?" - 50 (Over)
38-year old guy (refusing to learn his name, since he probably won't be here next season) is a -125 favorite to be better than Adam Everett. And that ain't sayin much.
Alex Burnett appearances required before the Twins decided a "Alex Burnett Batting Helmet Night" promo is wise to protect fans in the outfield - 10 (Under)
Time to try out some slogans...
Alex Burnett: What happens when "Hard thrower" and "Pitches to contact collide"
Alex Burnett: He was good for awhile that one month that one season
Alex Burnett: It was either him or Ron Mahay
Alex Burnett: Incoming!
Think it's safe to say that what the pitching staff lacks in talent, it makes up for in scapegoat potential.
Trips to Target Field it will take to remember why not of this stuff really bothers me: 1 (Push)
Happy Baseball Season folks.
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