The Minnesota Wild played one of their most compelling games of the season in Sunday's finale, notching a huge win to secure a playoff spot on the final day of the regular season. The next morning, their coach was fired after two seasons on the job. These two conflicting pieces of information may seem difficult to reconcile, until it's disclosed that the playoff spot in question now belongs to the Chicago Blackhawks, and the best role the Wild could muster was that of spoiler to the Dallas Stars playoff hopes.
Now I'd be lying if I said there wasn't a healthy bit of enjoyment to ending the season of the franchise that was stolen from this state 18 years ago. I will hate the Stars for the rest of my days, and if given the choice of screwing over any team in the league, they'd be at the top of my list. The whole thing still doesn't amount to a whole lot though, as us Wild fans are still left on the outside of the playoffs looking in, for the third season in a row.
Shortly after the NHL playoffs ended last June, I posted a critique of the Minnesota Wild's 2009-10 campaign, along with some ideas of how the playoff drought could be broken in the upcoming season.
Comparing how the team did a year ago
Points out of the playoffs: 11
Teams between the Wild and the #8 seed: 4
Goals for: 219 (22nd)
Goals against: 246 (21st)
Goal differential: -27(24th)
To how things played out this season
Points out of the playoffs: 11
Teams between the Wild and the #8 seed: 3
Goals for: 206 (26th)
Goals against: 233 (17th - tie)
Goal differential: -27 (21st)
Tells us only what anyone paying attention already knew going into the season, it's very difficult to get great improvement out of a marginal team that has no cap room available.
The Wild still lack anything resembling an elite scorer, and watched an anemic offense get worse this season. Coming into the year, fans were sold on the merits of continuity, that a year of experience with the new system now in place would be enough to change the fortunes of the squad. A few solid veteran's were added at the center position, but in general the returning personnel was similar. Not surprisingly, they pretty much turned in a carbon copy of what happened the year before.
Last summer, I identified the 2010-11 Minnesota Wild Pyramid of Hope, six players at three different levels of performance who needed to step up for the Wild to improve.
Here's how they fared against expectations:
Laying the groundwork - 3 guys who need good seasons to keep the Wild out of the cellar
1) Martin Havlat
The ask: The Wild need 30 goals and 60 points at a minimum
The give: 22 G, 40 A
Thoughts: Although Havlat didn't hit the scoring levels laid out, it can't be said that he had a bad season. Sure it would've been huge to see 8-10 more goals from him on a team this starved for scoring, but he was much improved from last season and given a bit of help, could come close to those stats in the future. Now the question is, will it be Halfthat (2009 version) or Havlat who shows up to play next October?
Grade: B
2) Brent Burns
The ask: Stay healthy. That's it. I firmly believe that if Brent Burns can stay on the ice for 70+ games this season, he will produce.
The give: 80 games played, 17G 29A
Thoughts: Well I was sort of correct. After rolling through the first half looking every bit the player he once was, Burns fell off a cliff in the season's last 30 games. After playing game #47 to end the month of January, his season totals stood at 14 goals and 17 assists, with great defense to boot. In the final 33 contests, he added 3 goals and 12 assists to those totals, while having several cringe-worthy moments in his own zone.
At 26 years old, with one year left on his contract, Burns is a perfect example of the problems plaguing this team. He can be an amazing player when he's on, few blueliners play a better all-around game. Unfortunately he can be just as bad on occasion, and with the potential for a multi-year deal at $4-5 million per on the horizon, the Wild can't make the wrong call here. Burns has been one of my favorite players over the Wild's history, but I think it's time to shop him aggressively this offseason. The team needs to hold onto some value here, but the risk of signing another inconsistent player too a bad contract is too great.
3) Nicklas Backstrom
The ask: Play competently, re-establish himself as at least a Top 10 goaltender, .920 save % and sub-2.50 GAA is a must
The give: 2.66 GAA, .916 save %
Thoughts: The goals against won't be winning any awards, but when considering the save percentage and team playing in front of him, I'd have to call Backstrom's season acceptable. The Wild turned getting outshot into an art this season, often allowing their goaltenders to get peppered ridiculously for stretches. The goaltending is still on the pricey side, but hard to single out as a big part of the team's struggles.
Framing things up - 2 guys who need to step up for the Wild to return to the playoffs
4) Mikko Koivu
The ask: A bump from the 22G 49A line of last season to 30/50 range should do the job
The give: 17G 45A in 71 games during a season somewhat limited by injury
Thoughts: As I said at the end of last season, Koivu is the definition of a nice player. Brings a lot to the table, takes little off, good teammate, leader, good building block. But with that being said, Mikko Koivu is not the type of player you are excited to have your team paying almost $50 million to over the next 7 years.
Admittedly, my views on things might be too myopic, with too much focus on scoring and not enough credit given for excellence in other parts of the game. But when you're 26th in the league in goals, can you afford to pay a guy who's never topped 22 goals $7 million per season? Even though talent evaluators can see value in many more areas, free agent dollars hinge on stats. I may be wrong, but it would've shocked me to see any other team even approach the price the Wild just locked Koivu up for. 30 goals is not a ridiculous number,in fact at this salary level, it's a must.
5) Pierre-Marc Bouchard
The ask: For his sake, as well as the team's, PMB just needs to get healthy and get on the ice, we'll see where things go from there.
The give: 12G, 26A in 59 games, more importantly ended the season upright, giving hope he might be okay for the long term
Thoughts: Always nice to see a player come back from injury, particularly when it's a guy you're locked in to paying $8 million over the next two seasons. Now let's move on with our warm feelings about PMB before I remember how drastically he loses his effectiveness in the playoffs. That might be the saddest silver lining I've ever considered: At least we don't have to be reminded of how poorly our players perform in the postseason.
Finishing touches - 1 guy who could take the team to the next level
6) Guillaume Latendresse
The ask: The X factor, barring some huge improvements from other players, the damage done in the playoffs will hinge on Latendresse emergence as a go-to scorer
The give: Zip, zilch, zero, nada. Not only is Latendresse not going to make an impact in the playoffs, his no-show this season is probably the biggest reason they're making early tee times for the third year in a row. It seemed like we found a diamond in the rough last season, instead we've simply found another athlete who works hard when things are uncertain, then eases back at the first sign of some security. Latendresse signed a nice extension, came into camp out of shape, got hurt early, and was never heard from again. 11 games played, 3 goals, 6 points, and a whole lot of question marks about his future as an effective player.
So should they have fired Todd Richards? Probably not. The consensus among the hockey fans and pundits alike is that the Wild's roster is nothing special. Their talent is that of a fringe playoff team, so why be shocked when they end up on the wrong side of that fringe? When the last Western Conference team in is the defending champs, who may have lost a lot, but still have far superior players, what can you do?
Michael Russo, the excellent hockey writer for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune wrote a piece earlier this week on how difficult a quick turnaround would be, given the current pipeline and salaries. about how mediocrity is keeping the team from drafting game changing players. Rachel Blount wrote a piece today discussing the need for an infusion of talent in the lineup.
While both are true enough, the fanbase can only respond with a collective 'Duh', as this isn't new info. Barring something unexpected, like a quantum leap by several prospects or amazing coaching hire, things aren't getting better any time soon. $50 million of next year's cap is already committed, meaning free agency won't be the answer. A mid-1st round draft pick also won't offer a quick fix.
So we bide our time, hope the team can make a deal to move a big salary, and just generally stays away from locking themselves into any more big salaries for marginal players. See you next fall I guess.
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