On the outside looking in

The first of May is typically when it hits me every year that the baseball season is going to have many ups and downs that can kill a guy if he overreacts to every one. Is that going to keep me from flying off the handle on an almost daily basis when things go wrong? Probably not, but I can at least take a break from chronicling every step of the journey here to chew over some other issues.

With that in mind, I've spent a lot of time this week watching something we're not very familiar with here in Loserville: Spring playoffs. The NBA and NHL are both leagues with ridiculously drawn-out seasons that grow tedious toward the end, fortunately they more than make up for it by delivering stellar (albeit also ridiculously drawn-out) playoff action that answers the question "What would it be like if these guys tried hard all the time?" The only thing better than catching a great playoff series this time of year is catching a great playoff series involving one of your teams, and that's where the trouble starts, at least around these parts. Sure our teams show up once in awhile, a few years ago it was actually pretty frequent, but even when it happens, the trips are short lived. My question is, which one of our winter teams will make the return first, and when, for the love of God, is that going to be?

The Timberwolves have made 8 playoff appearances in their 21 years of existence, advancing past the first round only once and compiling an overall record of 17-30. The Wild have batted at a slightly higher clip, managing a postseason appearance in 3 out of their 9 seasons and also one trip out of the first round on their way to a 11-18 overall record. The bad news? That was the good news, it all goes downhill from here.

Compounding this historic futility at the moment is the fact that both teams are coming off seasons of historic ineptitude. The Wolves limped home with a 15-67 record, tying the mark they had in the 1991-92 season (their third in existence), while the Wild finished with 84 points, their lowest total since the rule change that began awarding points for shootouts five years ago. I suppose this means there's nowhere to go but up, unfortunately it also means there's a long climb ahead for both squads.

Consensus opinon seems to be that the Wild are in a much better situation than the Wolves, given both their current level of talent and the league they play in. This is not to say that either is a threat to reach "contender" status any time soon, in fact it would seem ludicrous to aim that high at the moment. This is Remedial Sports 101, if they knew anything they wouldn't be in attendance, we're simply shooting for one notch above abject failure here. First round exits don't sound like much, but when you're face-down in shit, having it washed off with urine doesn't seem so bad...or something like that. Anyway, back to the Wild before I get too far off track.

As stated previously, the NHL is a league where teams can (and do) rise and fall with great speed. Minnesota finished 11 points out of a playoff spot this season, and could've been right in the mix had the team not stumbled out of the gate with a 2-9 record that put them behind the 8-ball for the rest of the year. Only problem is that there were 4 other teams falling within that 11-point gap, meaning the team not only needs to beat more teams, they need to beat the right teams and hope those teams don't start beating better ones.

An overarching theme with both of the puck and hoops squads is that they play in the wrong conference and division if you're a mediocre team, and that's not going to change in the immediate future. The Wild faces a slew of opponents that are either on the rise or well established, most have more depth in their development pipelines, as well as higher ceilings for their current teams. So how, you might ask, is this the better of the two situations? Short answer: Because the NHL is wacky.

This season the NHL saw 4 playoff teams from the Western Conference who weren't participants in last year's tourney, including the bottom 3 in the conference standings. Goaltenders get hot, lines begin to click, good scheduling, good energy, staying healthy, any number of things can be enough to tilt the scale. While the Wild may lack big time impact players who are ready to make the leap, they do have a solid (if unspectacular) squad that will not have the burden of adjusting to a new coach and system, as they did last year. Unfortunately they have a huge amount of their payroll tied up in an 18-goal scorer, a goaltender who got increasingly shaky as the year wore on and a bunch of good-not-great defensemen. On top of this is the fact that little help is available in the minors, with the small amount that is there being redundant to the spots that are already well-manned in the pros. All of this adds up to the fact that, barring some moves to shed salary, the guys we've got are the guys we're going to have for quite some time.

In my opinion, it may be a bit much to expect a playoff appearance in the coming season, but seeing the team grab a 7 or 8 seed would certainly not be surprising. Maybe Latandresse isn't a flash in the pan (likely), Backstrom stands on his head (possible), Havlat finds his scoring touch (plausible)and the defensive corps finds a way to contribute more offense (cough, Schultz, cough), but betting on ALL that stuff to happen? Those are some long odds. Official prediction is a return to relevance during 2010-11 and a fight down to the wire, falling just short of a playoff spot. At least we'll have some intrigue, and a return to the best tourney in sports should be on the horizon for two seasons from now...then we can lament how long it will take to actually contend for a championship.

The Wolves are in a wholly different situation on a lot of levels, I'd rank their problems as follows:

1) It's a players league, and we have no players - In the NBA, systems can't save you, talent can't be masked and your team is as good as your 2-3 star players make it. By my count, we have exactly zero guys who could be one of the top 2 guys on a playoff team, and one (Jefferson) who could be a capable 3rd, as long as you have the personnel to hide him defensively. At the risk of beating a dead horse, the failure of the 2009 Draft grows by the day, and unless Ricky Rubio shows up with all the game he was credited with having in the Olympics, that's not going to change any time soon.

2) Nobody wants to play here - I love my hometown teams first and foremost, and a big part of why I have trouble getting into the NBA is because the Wolves can't seem to convincing players to play here. Whether it's the cold, the nightlife, or just the fact the team is crap, no help is coming from free agency and even draft picks need to be regarded with skepticism. The aforementioned Rubio situation is the latest example, as I believe he would be an NBAer currently had he went to New York or Miami, but there are others as well.

OJ Mayo should be knocking down threes and playing lockdown D (think we could use some of that?), which would solve our perimeter problems and the Love/Jefferson redundancy. Heck, Stephon Marbury might've had a productive career alongside KG if we'd been a more cosmoplitan destination...on second thought, scratch that, I don't want to speculate on the motives of the insane. But however you spin it, it's obvious this franchise is operating with a degree of difficulty, which is understandable for free agents, but really a drag when you consider having to pass on the most talented players in the draft because they don't like your city. The GM made a serious blunder by thinking he could overcome this with the Rubio pick, he should've taken a cue from other NBA wastelands like Memphis, Oklahoma City and Sacramento, who passed on a guy they knew wouldn't suit up for them, maybe the first clue was when he wouldn;t come here for a workout? Oops.

3) Lousy draft/Lotto hex - First off, I don't want to get into a lot of jinx talk, as that is the Vikings exclusive domain, but just once can we get some luck in the damn lottery? By all accounts there are two players in this year's draft, John Wall and Evan Turner; the Wolves can select no lower than 5th and statistically are most likely to select 4th. You know where we're picking? 3rd, bank on it. Not only will this allow us to miss out on the two "can't miss" guys, but it will put our GM, Mr. Kahn, staring smack dab into the unplesant possibility of DeMarcus Cousins, who is not only a bit crazy and a terrible fit for a team with two undersized power forward/center types, he also seems like he would take a season or two on Team Rubio before he ever showed up here. We're not tops on his list, just a hunch, and this draft isn't deep either, so the 4 picks = 4 starters scenario some people seem to have in their minds is a pipe dream.

It's very depressing when you lay it all out, all things considered, I don't see the Timberwolves knocking on the playoff door for at least a couple of seasons and it's probably a couple more before they actually kick it in. As with the Wild, a lot can change, but for that to happen, this franchise would need something that has been in short supply throughout it's history: Good luck.

All in all, we'll probably be right back here next spring having this same conversation, which would truly be a shame. Playoffs are fun in general, but become exponentially more so when you add in a rooting interest, and it does not look like that is on the horizon. For the moment I will pick surrogate teams to live through vicariously, celebrating when they win, bumming when they lose, but not truly internalizing as I would if it were "my" team. A lot of teams make the postseason in both leagues, so playoff droughts should theoretically be short lived. Unfortunately when a franchise is run as far into the ground as these two have been, just getting back to the surface is quite a climb, nevermind soaring to new heights.

What time does the Twins game start again?