This Is A Big One Billy

It has been a long, hard slog through this week, in anticipation of the latest Biggest Vikings Game Ever. Monday was fun, reliving the triumph over the Cowboys, Tuesday still carried a bit of that juice, by Wednesday my brain was so innundated with analysis and opinion about this game that I actually had trouble falling asleep. I wish I were making that up, but the anticipation has been worse than being a kid on Christmas Eve, you would think I was suiting up on Sunday for all the thought being put into it. But frankly, most Minnesota sports fans are probably feeling pretty similar; perhaps not as much life-or-death consequences, but certainly full of anticipation...or foreboding.

A big theme of the week in the talk about this game has centered on the fear and loathing of Vikings fans expecting to have their heart ripped out this week. I must admit I've often fallen into that camp, it's hard not to when you've had your hopes dashed so routinely and completely by this team. All I can say is I'm shedding my fatalism about the team this week and stopping to appreciate what has been a very fun season. Hearkening back to the days of late August, when it seemed our Favre hopes were dashed, and the only thing on the horizon was 4 months of T-Jack knucklers, who wouldn't have taken this? Even after Purple Moses showed up, how many of us thought he'd make it through the season upright? Frankly if you'd told me this is where we'd be way back then, I would've taken it in a heartbeat. Any given Sunday, any team can beat any other team, and we are one Sunday away from the king of them all.

If you want a practical reason for the enthusiasm, I offer this: What could they do to us that is worse than what they've already done? Vikings fans are twisted steel, forged in the heartbreak of 1998, and tempered with the embarrassment of 41-doughnut; we've seen the worst there is, anything that happens this week will be a glancing blow by comparison. Perhaps that statement sets me up for the biggest coup de grace kick in the nuts the Vikes have ever delivered, but I refuse to live in fear of what might be; if losing on Sunday is our fate, then so be it, I've seen it before and I'm not going to let it wreck the fun of looking forward to the biggest Purple game in 10 years. As Mark McGwire said, I'm not here to talk about the past, I'm here to talk about beating the Saints and making a trip to Miami. Let's do this.

Oh yeah, there's also another game this weekend.

Jets @ Colts

A lot of Jets talk this week, but I'm just not buying it. I put this game at 50/50: 50 percent chance the Jets lose a close one and 50 percent chance they lose big. I know they've got a great running game and a defense that could keep things close. I know they're on a roll and believing in themselves and all that, but I also know one other thing, Peyton Manning plays for the Colts.

As I said in last week's predictions,we've seen this scenario unfold quite often, some plucky squad that was counted out jumps up to pull a divisional round upset, then runs out of gas/magic/luck trying to complete the job the following week. Jacksonville going into Denver in 1997 and upsetting a Broncos team that was favored to win the Super Bowl will always be the one I remember best, if only becase it robbed us of a fantastic encouter between the Broncos and Packers that season. Two years later the Jets gave the Jaguars a taste of their own medicine, but their run was similarly stopped by Denver in the AFC Championship game a week later.

What I did not realize, until looking at some playoff history, was how much the worm has turned on this particular argument. The Patriots rode the momentum of their victory in the infamous "Snow Game" in 2001 to the title, as did the Steelers with their upset of the Colts 4 years later. But this evidence is not enough to sway me, as both of the opposing teams in those cases were not the San Diego Chargers, who seem to have a knack for great regular seasons that go down in flames right out of the playoff gate; coupled with Norv Turners abysmal history, picking the Jets last week almost seemed like a no-brainer.

In the end momentum seems to fall victim to matchups these days and a blitzing defense against Peyton Manning and the Colts offensive line seems like a recipe for a lot of Colts touchdowns. The Jets did an admirable job in holding down their offense for one half when the teams played during Week 16, but Manning was still able to direct a pair of TD drives before he was pulled, and left with a lead at the time. Is it possible the Jets can keep it close with a perfectly called defensive gameplan, then capitalize with their run game against a tired defense in the second half? Sure, but it's also possible that I will be offered a job modeling men's underwear at some point; in other words, don't bet on it.

Colts 27, Jets 13



Vikings @ Saints

So now for the big one. There are plenty of reasons to think the Vikings will lose this game: Lousy road record, poor performance against offenses relying on quick passes, abominable showings on Sunday nights. But also plenty of reasons to believe they can win, chief among them a far superior defense and running game. Getting past the offense of this Saints team, which I admit is downright scary, I remain unimpressed by the defense, as I've been all season. Keep in mind this is still the same unit that Gus Frerrotte tore up last season en route to victory; I know they've changed some personnel and added a swagger, which can go a long way, but the bottom line is that a lot of the same guys will be on that field Sunday, and last year's Vikings offense is no comparison to the current one.

Two themes you've probably heard echoed a lot of places this week are the comparison of the Saints D to the1998 Vikings edition and the potential of a big game from Adrian Peterson. It's easy to understand the defensive comparison, both were reliant on turnovers and solid when the offense gave them a lead to work with, but got shaky when the other team kept it close and didn't need to become one dimensional. The thought sticking in my mind this week is of the last 30 minutes of the game they played against Tampa Bay in Week 16. The Bucs kept it close playing great D, and when they needed the tying and winning scores, simply rolled over the Saints with a steady stream of big runs. Once they knew they could win the game and smelled blood, Tampa was not to be denied, and New Orleans just couldn't match up physically, the Vikings need a similar approach.

All of which ties into the thought that AP can be the guy to turn things in our favor. Granted the running game has been lousy at times this season, and downright pathetic at others, but are we really supposed to believe the guy who was considered the consensus best RB in the game coming into this season doesn't have a huge game in him this week? Especially considering the weakness in the defense he's facing? I still remember the game against the Packers last season, when Peterson fumbled to set up Green Bay's go-ahead score, then went into Eff You mode for the rest of the game, carrying the team to victory on his back. 60 minutes of the Eff You AP could win us this game, and I like the odds on it happening.

Of course it goes without saying that in order to run, we need to keep it close, and to do that our D needs it's best game of the season. Drew Brees is not Tony Homo and won't act like a scared little bitch if he takes a few hits early. But this squad is loaded with playmakers, and they are going to make the plays we need them to make this week; New Orleans is going to score more than the 3 points Dallas put up, but our guys will keep it close, and that's all we need.

So here we go, all the marbles on the line, time to savor every minute until gametime. Are we going to win? You Brettcha!

Vikings 30, Saints 27