2012 NFL Preview: The unabridged version

It’s that time of year again, the part where I attempt to predict how the NFL is going to shape up, only to end up with more comedic fodder than brilliant insight come December. But in my defense, plenty of people who do this for a living do just as poorly, and they don't have a day job eating up their research time.

In keeping with the running theme of these posts, we’re going to compare each team to something they remind me of in a particular category.  Two years ago, it was beers. Last year, it was movies.

This year, I thought we’d tackle the musical doppelgangers of the NFL.

AFC West

Denver (9-7) / “Up To My Neck” (AC/DC) – Excluding vampires, perhaps no group of people in history has taken as much interesting in the fate of a neck as Denver Broncos fans this offseason. Even after months of talk about the bazillion surgeries, diminished throwing velocity, more outdoor games and a bunch of other reasons this won’t work, I’m still buying in for a couple reasons. First, he’s Peyton Effing Manning, and I’m not kicking dirt on him until we’re damned sure this thing is over. I love a good comeback story, and suddenly find myself rooting for both Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos more than I ever have before.

Second, the Broncos succeeding this season will be another nail in the coffin of the Tebow legacy. After Manning takes them to the playoffs, all we’ll need is a spectacular flop in relief of Mark Sanchez, video of him swearing at schoolchildren while kicking a puppy, a failed PED test and a leaked sextape to finally get him the hell off ESPN.

Kansas City (8-8) / “Back In Black” (AC/DC) – Are we going to go entirely AC/DC for the AFC West? A better question is, why wouldn’t we? The Chiefs are getting back three of their best players from full-season injuries and added my personal favorite offensive lineman, Eric Winston (Go Canes), in free agency. Incidentally, the first sign you might care too much about football is the day you pick a favorite offensive lineman, but dude is a badass, he probably carries the same wallet Sam Jackson had in Pulp Fiction.

The second sign you care way too much about football is that you downloaded a schedule grid into Excel and went game-by-game to figure out records, linking matchups to ensure that the offsetting win or loss is appropriately reflected when any change is made.  You then obsessively tweak said spreadsheet because very few teams 8-8 teams have both winning and losing streaks of more than 4 games.  It's pretty embarrassing to admit that's what a significant portion of my evenings have consisted of during the past week, but still less embarrassing than a lot of what people admit to watching on television.

Without trying to plan for it, I got to a very intriguing place with the AFC West by Week 17, the Broncos, Chiefs and Chargers all sitting at 8-7, with two divisional games on the schedule. A win would get the Chiefs or Chargers in regardless, by virtue of their holding the division-record tiebreaker over the Broncos. So what happens? The Broncos and Raiders win, of course.  And if you have to ask why, you haven’t been following the AFC West.

By the way, if that exact sequence unfolds, I expect you all to hail me as a prophet and send $50 to my newly formed Church of the Immaculate Reception. Otherwise, I will start predicting comets.

San Diego (8-8) / “Kicked In The Teeth” (AC/DC) – How many times is a Chargers team going to start slow and rally down the stretch, then fall flat on its face in the clutch, before the Norv Turner is finally put out to pasture? I’m not sure what the exactly number is, but “at least one more” is one correct answer.

Oakland (5-11) / “Highway To Hell” (AC/DC) – But at least they get to play spoiler. People keep talking about how good Carson Palmer was at the end of the season, and it makes me feel like I’m missing something. After all, this was an 8-8 team that spent the first half of its season watching Jason Campbell throw for 150 yards a game. But then you see their minus-74 point differential, think about their defense getting lit up and consider the fact that Michael Bush is not around to pick up the slack after Darren McFadden’s ankles explode like the T-1000 walking through liquid nitrogen. But if that does happens, at least I can break into my cache of Taiwan Jones jokes.

“Why did Taiwan Jones get angry when he went to the mall?”

“No one recognized him.”

Wah-wah, let’s all hope it doesn’t come to that.

AFC South

Tennessee (9-7) / “Crazy Train” (Ozzy Osbourne) – If you think having them at the top of the division is crazy, you’re probably right. But this is the NFL, and crazy is guaranteed, so why not the Titans jumping up to win a pretty lousy division? After all, Houston was a 6-10 doormat two years ago, with perhaps the worst defense in the league. I still shudder at the memory of watching them kill my fantasy playoff chances in Week 15 by letting Kenny Britt (and the immortal Kerry Collins) torch them time and again. It was like someone had pinned me down and had the defensive secondary collectively urinate on me for 3 hours.  Then they win the division with pretty much the same set of guys the following year, go figure.

Besides, if you think the prediction is shaky, wait until you hear how I have them getting there!

A brutal early season schedule featuring New England, at San Diego, Detroit, at Houston, Pittsburgh, at Buffalo and Chicago has them at 4-6 entering their Week 11 bye. Then Jake Locker begins to put things together, leading the team on a 4-game win streak out of the bye that’s only derailed when they travel to Green Bay in Week 16. The four opponents in said streak? At Jacksonville, Houston, @Indianapolis, NY Jets. After that, all they need is a win against Jacksonville at home to get to 9-7 with a 5-1 division record, one game better than the Texans 4-2.

Improbable? Yes. Impossible? Hardly. And you certainly can’t say it isn’t bold.

Houston (9-7) / “Broken” (Seether) – Of course all of the above is contingent on the Texans staying under double-digit wins, and they just might if the injury bug rears its head again. The starting QB, best WR and best defensive player all had serious injuries last season. One of them has left town, but for the two that remain, things seem to be trending negatively in that department. Throw in the loss of a couple good O-linemen and the Texans are my pick to take a step back this season. Sure they might just ride their power running game to 10-6 without breaking a sweat, but maybe some improving quarterback play steals a division W or two along the way, and then it’s a whole new ballgame.

Indianapolis (5-11) /“Even The Losers (Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers) – …get Luck-y sometimes. By all accounts, that certainly appears to be what’s happened here.  The Colts have parlayed their one bad season in over a decade into the next great NFL QB. This wouldn’t bother me so much if I didn’t think Luck is going to spend the next decade hammering home the abject stupidity of the Vikings reaching for a mediocre QB instead of blowing it all up and tanking for a high-end one the following season. Got a nagging feeling that this is all going to culminate in Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III facing off in the 2017 Super Bowl while Christian Ponder watches from the boat he bought following his retirement.

I think Colts fans are in for a fun season, with many touchdowns, many interceptions, and a general feeling that something is building for the future. Wish I could say the same for…

Jacksonville (4-12) / “Brick” (Ben Folds) – Blaine’s the brick, and he’s about to drown this team slowly. Or maybe quickly, we’ll see what happens. There’s actually been some preseason buzz about Gabbert looking better, and Justin Blackmon should be a big upgrade at wide receiver. But Blaine Gabbert is the warm blanket of abject failure that comforts me about my own team’s shaky 2nd-year QB, and I’m not willing to give that up yet. Check back with me about 4 PM this Sunday, after he finishes torching our ramshackle secondary for 250 yards and 3 TDs.

I had to take a look back at how this team went 5-11 last year, because every time I saw them, they looked like they’d have trouble beating an egg. Throw out a 41-point, “where-the-eff-did-that-come-from???” explosion against Tampa, and they averaged 16 points in their other 4 wins last season. Unfortunately, Indy won't be as easy to sweep this time around, and their best offensive player just got to camp last week, so that spells a slight step back.

AFC North

Pittsburgh (11-5) / “Truckin” (Grateful Dead) – I’ve let myself be swayed by preseason chatter in the past, the O-line has too many injuries, the QB takes too many hits, the defense is getting old, etc. Yet every year we get to December and there are the Steelers, right in the thick of the playoff hunt, if not the race for homefield. The same thing has happened this year, with Mike Wallace holding out, running backs getting hurt, a rookie offensive lineman lost for the season, still things just keep truckin.

Baltimore (11-5) / “Seen It All Before” (Amos Lee) – Somebody help me out here, is this breakout season #3 or #4 for Joe Flacco?  The Ravens will get a wild card, they will go on the road in round one and demolish a “higher” seed, and with their history against the Steelers and Patriots, I should really like their shot at making the Super Bowl. Joe Flacco outplayed Tom Brady last year (albeit against a terrible defense) and had his team an indefensible shank away from going to OT in a conference championship game.

So why is it that I just can’t get behind Flacco as the quarterback of a championship team? His 20 TDs last season?  The series of performances that ranged from "blah" to "blech" during the second half?  Maybe he will break out, but first they’re going to have to ask him to do more than what he’s done, at the moment he seems a bit too much like the AFC version of Alex Smith.

Cincinnati (8-8) / “It’s Not My Time” (3 Doors Down) – Very intrigued at where this team might go in the next couple of years, but a tougher schedule coupled with sophomore slump from Andy Dalton has me thinking no playoff repeat is in store this year.

Cleveland (4-12) / “The Song Remains The Same” (Led Zeppelin) – I tried to find the Browns more wins, believe me I did. But at the end of the day, each team I compared them against just seemed to have more to like.  It’s true they won 4 games with Colt McCoy at QB last season, but now their best defensive player is out for the first 4 games and their starting schedule is a nightmare (PHI, @CIN, BUF, @BAL, @NYG, CIN) Anyway, how can we even be sure Brandon Weeden will be an upgrade?

Rookies are rookies, even those halfway to an AARP card. Find a quarterback Cleveland, for the love of God, we go through this every year, Derek Anderson’s single competent season should be no one’s gold standard!

AFC East

New England (13-3) / “So Close” (Hall & Oates) – A terrible defense looks improved, but haven’t these guys lost quite a bit on the offensive line? It’s tough to say you’re nervous about a team you’re predicting will go 13-3, but a Tom Brady injury changes so many things, the idea of him taking frequent hits is unsettling. The again, this is another team that just seems to soldier on no matter what happens, and Bryant McKinnie’s midsection thinks their schedule is soft, tough to pick against them.

So we’ll pick what usually happens, blaze a trail to the playoffs, then get knocked out just short by a team with a great pass rush that throws you off your game.

Buffalo (9-7) / “Tainted Love” (Soft Cell) – I may be a Vikings fan, but I’m a Bills homer. Every year I talk myself into them finding a way to beat expectations, and every year I’m wrong. Last year they looked golden with a 5-2 record, then melted down so completely you could’ve sworn the entire team was launched into the sun. So what I’m saying is, take this with a grain or ten of salt. Every year, I have to root for one of our brothers in Loserdom, Buffalo or Cleveland, to turn in a season that isn’t a complete steaming turd. Since Cleveland doesn’t look capable, you’re up Buffalo, make your fans proud less profoundly depressed than you usually do.

Is it that crazy to think they can win 9?

Road: Jets, Cleveland, Houston, Indy.
Home: Seattle, Jacksonville, Miami, Tennessee, New England.

The Houston and New England games are tough, but seem possible, if unlikely. Go Bills.

New York Jets (7-9) / “Lido Shuffle” (Boz Scaggs) – I’ve altered the lyrics slightly

Tebow, whoa oh, oh, oh

Sanchez is done, because he blows,Tebow's a waitin' foooor the go oh
Tebow, whoa oh, oh, oh, ohhhh, ohhhh

How this’ll end, nobody knows
Tebow, whoa oh, oh, oh, oh, oh Tebow

Tebow’s probably praying that his time in New York will be a success. Meanwhile, thousands of others are praying that he's an abject failure, if only to avoid the complete insufferability that would be a Tim Tebow-led New York Jets playoff team. Funny how that works.

Rumor has it you’re a merciful God, please, I’m begging you, spare us this.

Miami (3-13) / “All Apologies” (Nirvana) – This is admittedly an opinion that’s been tainted by Hard Knocks viewing, but man does this team look lousy. Joe Philbin seems to have one halftime and postgame speech: That was embarrassing, do better. Shouldn’t we take the fact that he keeps having to give that speech as evidence that either A) They’re not listening or B) This is the best they’ve got to offer? I’m leaning B myself.

(Circling back to the Jets for a moment, if God needs more karmic support on why they should be smote this season, they took the most likeable guy from Hard Knocks and cut him after he blew out his knee in his first practice with the team. Apparently his contract had an injury waiver clause, so he gets squat from them. This made me feel lousy about being a football fan.  Somebody get this guy $50k to live on for a year while he gets his knee right, or risk coming back as the elastic in Rob Ryan's underwear during your next life. Injuries are part of the game, I get it, but come on, that’s just awful.)

NFC West
San Francisco (10-6) / “For Whom The Bell Tolls” (Metallica) – Picking the Niners to win 10 games pains me for two reasons.  Not only did I wager some weeks back that they wouldn’t hit double-digit wins due to a more difficult schedule, I also hate mediocre QBs who get by on the backs of great defenses.

Trips to Green Bay, New Orleans and New England, home dates with the Lions, Giants and Bears.  There’s enough opposing offense there to require Alex Smith to actually take a few chances, right? He only threw 5 interceptions last year, but also only 17 TDs; one of those numbers needs to go way up, nobody wants to see you fling it out of bounds on 3rd and 8, Captain Checkdown. I don’t hate San Fran, but it vexes me whenever a team wins without a playmaking QB, just doesn’t seem right.

Need more fireworks Smith, the good kind or bad, shit or get off the pot time.

Seattle (8-8) / “Hallelujah” (Jeff Buckley) – Getting Tarvaris Jackson off your team should be worth a minimum 2-win bump, but I couldn’t find a 9th win on the schedule. Still, this team looks frisky, with a solid D, decent run game and maybe even a young QB who can make a few plays. Whether that QB is Russell Wilson or Matt Flynn seems immaterial, either one should be an upgrade.

By the way, during this dark period of the franchise history, Vikings fans have got to thank Seattle for those ridiculous quotes about T-Jack not being given a fair shake in Minnesota during training camp last year. We needed a laugh. Between that and making a Godfather offer to Sidney Rice that was so over-the-top they couldn’t even justify stupidly matching it, you’re aces in my book.

St. Louis (4-12) / “Turn The Page” (Bob Seger & The Silver Bullet Band) – Jeff Fisher is now on the scene, how many more bad seasons are we away from Sam Bradford entering the ranks of the “Former High Draft Picks Escorted To The Scrap Heap”? Gotta be kind of a make or break year here, right? They may be reluctant to cut bait after only 3 years, but if the results aren’t better, doesn’t the new coach get antsy to bring in “my guy”?

Arizona (4-12) / “The Pretender” (Jackson Browne) – Are you like me? Do you sit around and wonder how in the hell the Arizona Cardinals won 8 games last season? They went 4-0 in overtime games, that’s how, and that’s not going to happen again.  By the way, this what I wrote about the Cards signing Kevin Kolb last year: “Should’ve just signed Kyle Orton and saved the $40 million”

I’m rarely right, so need to point it out when I am.

NFC South
New Orleans (12-4) / “F*ck You” (Cee-Lo Green) – This one will be a case study in how much coaching affects a football team, but there would seem fewer capable of absorbing the blow than the Saints. Starting with a fairly easy schedule out of the gate and having 3 out of 5 (including the opener) at home before a Week 6 bye certainly seems to weigh in their favor.  Let the interim coaches get their sealegs in friendly conditions, with Washington, Carolina and Kansas City, before a Week 4 trip to Green Bay, they should have the nerves firmly in check.

Besides, doesn’t this whole situation have to give a team the greatest shot of “everyone’s against us” unity in history?  You don't think Drew Brees will be reminding his teammates in every huddle how nobody, particularly the NFL, wants to see them win? I could be wrong, but think they can spin this into an almost positive. 

Atlanta (10-6) / “Lie To Me” (Jonny Lang) – Barring injury, the Falcons winning 10 or 11 games seems like a lock. But after the past few years, will that get anyone even remotely excited? This team is the Bizzaro Giants and Matt Ryan is the Bizzaro Joe Flacco. They look fine during the regular season, only to be exposed as an impostor as soon as the playoffs roll around.

I read a defense of this from an Atlanta fan, pointing out that they lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion in each of the last two seasons. While true, that doesn’t do much to soften the blow of HOW they lost, particularly last year’s clunker in the Meadowlands. Guess I will bite one more time Atlanta, but if you go 12-4, then lose by 20 in the divisional round, we’re banning you from the postseason for a few years like they do in college.

Tampa Bay (7-9) / “New Kid In Town” (The Eagles) – New coach, new running back, new offensive linemen, unfortunately the same tough division. Plus they get to face the NFC East. Seems like they should be quite a bit better, but until it can be definitely stated whether Josh Freeman is good or bad, they’re in limbo.

Carolina (6-10) / “Back To Where I Was” (Eric Hutchinson) – Once again, it feels like there should be more wins here, but looking at things on a game-by-game basis makes them hard to find. The Panthers are treading water at the same record because their big move was adding a running back to a team with a great running QB and two good running backs. That being said, they are the front runners for the coveted “Funnest Bad Team To Watch” Award, so that’s something.


NFC North
Green Bay (14-2) / “One Man Wrecking Machine” (Guster) – Now here’s a spot where the opposite was happening, I was desperately trying to talk myself into fewer victories. Then I got to thinking about Aaron Rodgers and couldn’t bring myself to do it. Someone needs to explain to me why a team that went 15-1 last season plays the first two weeks and 3 of its 4 toughest games on home turf. I’d like Chicago’s chances Week 2 at Soldier Field, much less at Lambeau.

Chicago (10-6) / “Time Is Running Out” (Papa Roach) – Could be a fun Week 17 if I’m right and the Lions-Bears tilt in Detroit is win-or-go-home. The Bears defense is old, and might fade late in the season. The offensive line needs to play a lot better to keep Jay Cutler in one piece. But with that said, I’m buying in 100% on the offseason additions of Michael Bush and Brandon Marshall taking their offense from good to elite.

Detroit (9-7) / “Ironman” (Black Sabbath) – The song selection is intended to be ironic, since I couldn’t be more wary of Matthew Stafford’s fragile health. On a team with no running game to speak of, there doesn’t seem to be much chance a backup could come in a wring a victory or two out of a few weeks in the caretaker role. But you can’t ignore the upside either, and if the defense improves, the video game passing attack has the potential to make doubters look pretty stupid.

Minnesota (5-11) / "Sad Songs" (Elton John) - I'll keep this brief, as we'll have the next 4 months to berate their ineptitude, and simply say I'm not expecting much.  There is one thing I'd really like to happen though, because it will fill me with endless glee.  Please let the Vikings beat a Packers team with nothing on the line when they come to town in Week 17.  Not because beating a playoff-team that's benched all it's starters will provide any kind of comfort at the end the terrible season.  Just because it will eventually lead to me overhearing a Vikings fan talk trash to a Packer fan about that game as if it meant something.  

And then I will know who the stupidest person in this state truly is.

NFC East

Philadelphia (10-6) / “Fly Like An Eagle" (Steve Miller Band) - Perhaps a tad obvious with the song, but sometimes it's just that easy.  You might be asking how I can fret over the health of Stafford and Schaub, yet assume Vick will remain upright long enough to win a division.  Frankly I don't really have a good answer for that, just a gut feeling.  Call it the Miami Heat Model, if you will, as it seems like a bunch of big names joining up always need a year to gel and have the hype subside before reaching the original expectations.

I just hope that new flak jacket is as good as advertised.

New York Giants (9-7) / “Respect” (Aretha Franklin) – Did these records before Wednesday's game, and frankly don't feel any different based on what I saw there.  Might be falling into the trap that everyone does with the Giants, getting bored with them and finding reasons why they'll fall off.  But they were an up-and-down team last year, so why should this one be any different?  I'm just betting on other ones having fewer injuries and raising the bar on qualifying for the postseason.

Dallas (9-7) / “Theme From Dallas” (Unknown) – Did you know that when you enter "theme from" into Google, the theme from Dallas does not appear in the top 10 results?  I now do, and I find that disconcerting, as it's one of the all-time badass opening themes.

Here are the top 10:

1. A Summer Place
2. Ice Castles
3. Rocky
4. Shaft
5. A Love Story
6. Jaws
7. Mahogany
8. Chariots Of Fire
9. Top Gun
10. The Godfather

First off, what the hell are Nos. 1, 2 and 7?  No. 5 I had heard of, but couldn't place  Curiosity got the better of me, and let me just say they are all atrocious.  I have no idea who is Googling these themes with such frequency, most people over 80 typically struggle with computers.  Slow, depressing piano music does not a theme song make.  If you want slow piano, there are better sources, try guys named Bach, Beethoven and Mozart for starters.

So no Dallas, which maybe I could handle, if not for the other glaring omissions.  No Cheers?  No Hill St. Blues?  NO STAR WARS???  There are some solid themes on that list, sure, but how can those three not make the cut in any theme Top 10?  This is Exhibit A in what's wrong with America.

Throw out the four crap ones, add Dallas and the other three I've cited, and you've got yourself a list worth having.  I've linked to all of them for you listening pleasure, if you do not immediately click on Rocky and start shadow boxing, Top Gun and start playing air guitar or Chariots Of Fire and start slo-mo running, we cannot be friends.

Anyway, what were we talking about again?  Oh yeah, 9-7.

Washington (7-9) / “Running On Empty" (Jackson Browne) - At this point, I'm talking about me, not the team. 

AFC Wild Card - Baltimore over Tennessee, Denver over Buffalo
NFC Wild Card - Atlanta over Philly, Chicago over San Francisco

AFC Divisional - New England over Denver, Baltimore over Pittsburgh
NFC Divisional - Green Bay over Chicago, Atlanta over New Orleans

AFC Championship - Baltimore over New England
NFC Championship - Green Bay over Atlanta

Super Bowl - Green Bay over Baltimore

Yes, that might be a reverse jinx.

Finally Football

Well, it appears that my quest to become a paid fantasy football writer has fallen short, and that is rather disappointing.  Fortunately, that disappointment is blunted by the fact that this is the official first day of a new football season.

There is nothing like the first day of football season.

Even though the temperature is going to top out in the mid-90s, and most folks are looking forward to one last extended weekend at their lake cabins, today still marks the true beginning of autumn. For the first time in what seems like forever, we get watch football games that count, thank whatever lord it is that you believe in. Each weekend for the next twenty or so promises more of the same; a blissful thought after spending the last three months bobbing along with only a terrible baseball team and the occasional golf tournament as distractions.

I read a very interesting piece of writing yesterday entitled “Football is Dead. Long live Football.” by J.R. Moehringer for ESPN The Magazine. Not only is it the first interesting thing that I’ve ever read in ESPN The Magazine, parts of it were tough to take for your average football fan. It’s a bit lengthy, there’s no disputing that, but it is one of the few things I’ve read that highlights the good and bad of the sport equally, a difficult task for any subject that enflames such passion.

It’s been tough to enjoy being a football fan at times these last few years, and not because of anything that’s happened on the field. The stories of mental and physical ruin brought on by this game should leave even the biggest diehard wondering what we can do to better protect those who play the game. The problem, as with most things, are the extreme attitudes of some people. The “Ban Football” argument is as useless as the people who shrug off brain damaged players by saying “they knew the risks”; neither attitude is going to get us to a sustainable place with this, or any other contact sport.

Of course the comeback is to ask why bother sustaining these games at the cost of people’s health? The reply is that while they aren’t required for a functional society, the collections of behaviors they teach are things we can't afford to lose. Teamwork, sacrifice, courage, overcoming adversity, where are these learned more often than the athletic field? Take away any setting in which a kid risks injury, you also take exercise, friendship and a sense of belonging to something bigger than themselves. I know it isn’t worth the price paid by some. I can’t honestly say if I’ll feel it’s worth the price I will eventually pay, when the arthritis finally shows up in my surgically-repaired knee. But I have a feeling it will be, and know there are millions more who already know that for sure.

Toward the end of Mr. Moehringer’s 120 points on football, there are several that connected with my own experiences playing the game as a kid, in particular these two:

101. I remember, when the silver dried, putting on the helmet, looking at the world through the steel face mask, feeling powerful.

102. I'd never before felt powerful.

Growing up, I was also always the biggest kid in the neighborhood, which wasn’t the most fun. Awkward on skates, couldn’t run fast, I could hit a baseball (not a complete spaz here), but the early years of hockey and soccer were not what I was cut out to do. Stepping onto a football field was a revelation, the first time I felt at ease in my own skin. I was no great athlete, never got to wow anyone with bullet throws or acrobatic catches, but every time my hand went into the grass, I was in my element.

Because the guy making the block mattered as much as the guy running the ball. You were part of a unit that rose and fell together.  There was nothing greater than knowing something good just happened because you and 10 other guys did their jobs to perfection.

This feeling isn’t unique to the game of football, but it is the place I’ve felt it most strongly in my life.  That probably explains why I can sit down, anytime, anyplace, and enjoy two teams squaring off. Many of my friends feel the same way about hockey, but the sport being discussed is immaterial, the sentiment is always the same. It’s the feeling of team, and at the risk of sounding like someone’s grizzled grandfather, it seems like something today’s kids could use more of.

So tonight, as I sit down to watch the Minnesota Golden Gophers, in all their typically inept (and occasionally infuriating) glory, I am going to savor the beginnings of another football season. It seems almost useless to try and prognosticate how the maroon-and-gold will do this year, every season lately has been more confusing than the last. The schedule looks soft, you begin to talk yourself into the possibility of “a strong start, then who knows?”, only to be slammed back to Earth by a drubbing at the hands of one of the supposed creampuffs.

This year we’re once again talking baby steps. We’re talking about the first Jerry Kill recruiting class, about a senior QB maybe reaching his potential, about beating the teams a member of the Big Ten should beat.  Most importantly, we’re talking football again, and that feels pretty damn good.

There's one other item from the ESPN piece that I thought was fantastic, a quote from linebacker Takeo Spikes:

"You can lock me up in solitary confinement for a couple of years, never tell me the date, never tell me the month, anything, and I could tell you what month it is, and I could tell you when it's football season, that's how much it's been embedded in me."

Couldn't have said it better myself, ditto.

Fingers crossed

One of my favorite websites, Grantland, is having an essay contest to select their fantasy football writer, and I decided to take a crack at it.  Staying within the 750-word limit was the hardest part, as a friend of mine told me, "you take 750 words to clear your throat".

Here's my submission, wish me luck:


Like most people, I initially got into fantasy sports to meet chicks. Results on that front have been mixed so far.

If I play in your fantasy league, I will not win. I will craft a juggernaut that storms its way through the regular season, only to see my hopes dashed when some glorified practice squadder channels Barry Sanders in Week 16. You probably don’t want to hear about my bad fantasy beats. I’m not interested in hearing about your kids either. Yet I feign interest, because I’m polite.

Fortunately, I’m well versed in coming up short, due to both my history as a Vikings fan and my belief that one should always strive to finish in the bottom-third of the upper-third of any endeavor. You can’t appear dispensable when it’s time to trim the fat, but also need to avoid being considered overly dependable. That will only get you extra work with no incremental payoff.

Since the edict was to make this interesting, I’m going with value picks that you might be able to actually get on the same team. Slap me, stab me, shoot me, just don’t bore me by offering up some variation of Foster, Rice, McCoy, Rodgers and Megatron at your top five. If you want that kind of cutting insight, locate a gas station and buy a magazine.

1. Chris Johnson – Tennessee

Foster, Rice, McCoy.

Young, productive, no holdout or injury concerns, just what you look for with a top pick. But given the higher cost to get one of them, and a gut feeling that we’re overdue for an off year or two, there’s a lot to love about a Chris Johnson resurgence. The fact he appears to be trying again is a nice place to start.

With an inexperienced QB, and the inevitable Week 2 injury to Kenny Britt, the Titans should lean on a solid defense and running game to carry them. There’s nothing about this team that looks glaringly worse than the 2009 version, and all Johnson did that year was finish with the highest running back point total since LaDanian Tomlinson went Tecmo Bowl on things in 2006. I’ll roll the dice on history repeating.

2. Steven Jackson – St. Louis

If he could just get in the end zone, he’d be Top 5 every year.

When that’s your main argument for a guy who plays for the league’s worst-scoring team, it’s dicey. Fortunately, there’s literally nowhere for the Rams to go but up. Jeff Fisher’s mustache alone should add at least 9-10 touchdowns, similar to what Mike Holmgren’s mustache did in Seattle. If Jackson can snag 5 of those, he’ll not only be a good value, but paired with Johnson would give a team the most impressive collection of dreadlocks this side of the 2007 Green Bay Packers secondary.

3. Matt Ryan – QB – Atlanta

Anyone else getting déjà vu from all this buzz about Matt Ryan making the leap to elite fantasy QB? The price keeps getting steeper, and we may be entering fool-me-twice-shame-on-me territory, but what is fantasy football without at least one mistake being repeated? Anyone picking Darren McFadden in the first round knows this feeling well.

4. Brandon Marshall – WR – Chicago

Crazy is as crazy does, and nobody in the NFL does crazy quite like this. Does the huge upside outweigh the total unpredictability here? If it didn’t, teams wouldn’t keep trading for him. Best case: 120 catches and 15 TDs. Worst case: A week 3 Sportscenter story opening with the words “Brandon Marshall was arrested in a Chicago nightclub early Monday morning”. Either way, it’ll be fun.

5. Brandon Lloyd – WR – New England

#1 Patriots wide receiver. Ranked as low as 15th in the league some places. Nuff said.

Sleeper – Jermaine Gresham – TE – Cincinnati

A tight end who had 600 yds and 6 TDs in his second year is only a “sleeper” if you expect a whole lot in year three. A modest increase to 800 yds and 8 TDs would put him in Top 5 range. I think there's more and he’s ranked around 12th. The QB looks legit, divisional defenses look ready to take a step back, buying low on the next breakout TE.

Should I be selected, I will come up with a creative way to get fired from my job, in order to fully devote myself to the position. Nothing illegal, or that will screw up the severance, just bizarre enough to make them ask me to stop coming here every day.

Your guess is as good as mine

First off, time to set the mood with this.

Then, perhaps a bit of this.

Alright, now that we’re in the right frame of mind, ARE YOU READY FOR ANOTHER HIGH-FLYING, SPINE-TINGLING, GUT-WRENCHING (AND ULTIMATELY FRUITLESS) SEASON OF VIKINGS FOOTBALL!!!

Sure, there are still three weeks to go before a game that counts is played, and the exhibition season should be taken with a full shaker of salt.  But tonight the 2012 Purple hit the field for the first time in a game setting, and I couldn’t be more excited. The wins and losses may not count, but if the starting QB gets wheeled off on a stretcher, then you can’t say it wasn’t a pivotal moment in your team’s season! All these mile markers on the way to our destination: The start of training camp, the first episode of Hard Knocks, the first preseason game, perhaps a fantasy draft or two. Unfortunately, you can’t make the car travel any faster, the best you can hope for is making it there in one piece.

I don’t know about you, but it's been a weird year.  The combination of trying to block out Olympic coverage and training camp in the age of Twitter have conspired to make me a tad overstimulated. Newspaper and radio offered more than enough snap judgments on player performance to tide me over day-to-day, the live tweeting of practices was almost two much to handle. Forty-eight hours ago I was thisclose to ordering an Emmanuel Arceneaux jersey.  If you just said to yourself “Who?”, you’ve proven my point. If you didn’t, you’re either a CFL fan or also might need a break to decompress.

Am I better informed because of all this information?  Not in the slightest.

The only thing that can be said with any certainty about the 2012 edition of the Minnesota Vikings is that expectations are as low as they've been in my lifetime. The are some important issues to be determined, and we hope to learn more about a lot of players, but it's not a team you're going to be sitting around years after wondering "what if?" about. 

This is a club sandwich of a football team, not going to cause a lot of excitement, but very difficult to screw it up enough to wreck your day. When losing big games in heartbreaking fashion is the best lore a franchise has to offer, having nothing at stake can be liberating. There are always a few deluded souls thinking playoff contention, (and in the topsy-turvy NFL, stranger things have happened) but most of us will be happy with proof of life a few areas.  Forget the Mars rover, you want to talk about venturing into the great unknown, look no further.  One of the beat writers made a joke the other day that is was like the groundskeeper scene in Major League, who are these guys?

This season everything is all upside. Our draft class might look great! The young defensive players might step up!! Our best player might look fully recovered from knee surgery!!! We might finally find a franchise QB!!!!  And if not? Well I never really liked most of those guys anyway, cut em and find some better ones.

That’s the beauty of the NFL when you’re losing, everything is Not For Long. Well, unless of course the newly crowned GM is truly as incompetent as some believe and the owners were just waiting to get a shovel in the ground on a new stadium before drastically reducing their financial commitment to the team, then you’re f*cked. But we’ll jump off that bridge when we come to it.

In the meantime, I think this team needs a slogan to define their personality and prospects for the upcoming season. Similar to the Twins using their “Get To Know Em” and “Go To See Em” ad campaigns in the early-2000s to introduce a set of unknown players, then exhort fans to come out to the park once they started winning, what defines the Vikings these days?

A few ideas:

2012 Minnesota Vikings: Nowhere to go but up! (If not in the standings, then at least in the draft)

2012 Minnesota Vikings: Anything’s possible…right?

2012 Minnesota Vikings: Thank goodness most of you are drinking.

2012 Minnesota Vikings: We might be Brett Favre’s last team.

2012 Minnesota Vikings: Our quarterback once had a good game in college!

2012 Minnesota Vikings: Now featuring many players not coached by Brad Childress.

2012 Minnesota Vikings: Highly unlikely to end heartbreak!

2012 Minnesota Vikings: Better than a sharp stick in the eye.

2012 Minnesota Vikings: Purple pride meets purple pants.

2012 Minnesota Vikings: Still not as sad as the Timberwolves.

2012 Minnesota Vikings: Allen, Peterson, Harvin, Winfield and 18 other guys.

2012 Minnesota Vikings: You could be a Browns fan.

2012 Minnesota Vikings: You could be a Jaguars fan.

2012 Minnesota Vikings: Seriously, you could be a Browns fan.

2012 Minnesota Vikings: Your father indoctrinated you into this cult of pathetic losers at birth, now you’re stuck with us for the rest of your life, so you’ll take what we give you and like it.

Alright, so that last one is more of a personal reflection, and wouldn’t fit on a bumper sticker anyway. Sometimes we lash out at the ones we love when the disappoint us, even though we know they’re trying hard to meet expectations.

Because people love their Vikings, even though they’ve collected as many Super Bowl trophies as you have on your mantle at home. The fans from across the river (and across the league) may mock and ridicule us, but it’s a point of pride to keep hanging in year after year, even in those years where you aren’t expecting much. Loserville wouldn’t be Loserville without its most epic set of losers.

Anyway, we've done 50 of these things that didn't end in a Super Bowl win, one more isn't gonna kill us.

And with that ringing endorsement, SKOL!

Irritatingly Irrelevant Inanity

So the Olympics are pointless and boring, right? Hearing no objection, I’ll assume you agree, and since that was covered in great detail very recently, there’s no reason to beat a dead horse. But when it comes to over-the-top, in-your-face coverage of news about nothing, the Olympics a bronze medal finisher this week, barely making their way onto the medal stand.

Silver Medal – Tim Tebow

He’s baaaaack! And more ubiquitous than ever. Straight from the pages of the “be careful what you wish for” files, America’s most over-hyped quarterback has now joined forces with America’s most over-hyped football team. I can only imagine Five months ago I celebrated the arrival of Peyton Manning to Denver, and (stupidly, it would appear) assumed we were done with Tebowmania for good.

Now, instead of returning to the relative obscurity of Jacksonville, he’s ended up in New York, with the team that ESPN has inexplicably anointed as more important than the Super Bowl champions (who just happen to share a city with them) and force fed us for the better part of 3 seasons. To put this in perspective, I know people who like Tim Tebow, not many, but a few. Everyone I know without exception detests the New York Jets, and believe me, it’s not because of any time they’ve done them wrong on the actual field of play.

Why didn’t Jacksonville just make a Godfather offer for him? Things could’ve been so nice down south. The locals would’ve welcomed back a favorite son and Jags fans could’ve been give a bit of hope by the only thing (divine intervention) that could potentially elevate their team to relevance this year. And if it worked even a little bit? Boom! Automatic folk hero status. Not to mention, no East Coast media circus constantly churning on every piece of non-news.

Instead, we get even more shots of Tim Tebow with his shirt off, looking like he used his special Christ powers to absorb the 3rd-stringer, more Mark Sanchez looking constipated after missing a receiver, and of course, more of Rex Ryan’s (admittedly smaller) jowls, etc. Full disclosure, I picked the Jets to win it all last season. Not because I liked them, or thought they were the best team, but because this is the NFL, where crazy sh*t happens with regularity. I said they’d go 9-7, squeak into the playoffs, pull off some insane upsets and take the crown. Turns out I had the right read on the town, just the wrong team. The Jets were the team that got the help they needed on the final day of the season for the aforementioned squeak…only to cough up a game they had won in the 4th quarter against a lousy Miami team with nothing to play for.

The lesson? I hold a grudge against them for screwing up what would’ve been an epic prediction. The other lesson? All the talk about Rex Ryan being a great motivator feels like crap when his team goes belly-up 10 minutes from the postseason. Special bonus lesson? Mark Sanchez sucks, which is another reason I’m afraid we’re in for Tebowmania 2: Tim Takes Manhattan, at some point this season.

I have no idea where this is going, but I think it’s some place where I end up losing money and my temper this fall due to the results of several Jets games. Stay tuned.

Gold Medal – The Mars Rover

Have you heard about this thing? Of course you have, BECAUSE IT’S EVERYWHERE!!! Well, not everywhere in the literal sense, in fact it’s just on Mars, blistering across the surface at an average speed of 1 cm/sec. Don’t get me wrong, this bad boy can do a full 5 cm/sec, but due to the uncertain terrain on Mars, it only goes for 10 seconds at a clip, then stops to assess its surrounding for 20 seconds before continuing. Riveting stuff, eh? I learned that in the lobby of a Valvoline Instant Oil Change the other day because I couldn't start slamming my head into the wall to lose consciousness fast enough.

Which, as always, is my point, not the fact that they shot the thing into space, but the fact that they need to make such a big effin deal about it. You know what it’s taught us about Mars so far? It’s red. It’s red and made of rock. Congrats, Mr. Rover, you’re now conveying almost as much information as a filmstrip I watched in 4th grade. They called it Curiosity, but Inanity would’ve been a better choice if you ask me.

Before you come at me with the arguments about “furthering this” and “gaining insight into that”, let me reiterate that I am not against them putting a poor man’s R2D2 on Mars in the hopes it might find something interesting. Just wait to splash it all over every form of media until it finds something interesting! Cancer doctors don’t hold a press conference every day to announce that they haven’t found a way to cure cancer, because they know nobody cares. I’d argue that might be the most important scientific pursuit on the plant, certainly more so than lunar go-kart racing, but they’ve got tests to run and a Bunsen burning, no time for meaningless PR.

But hey, much like the Olympics, maybe I’m the problem here. Many people gaze to the stars in wonderment, I do so and think “I really hope we’re not going to go rootin around and wake up something in the middle of Mars that’s going to come down here and kill us."

But hey, I've always been the "glass half-empty" type.

Personal opinion

People have been telling me that online personal ads are a good way to meet women, so I threw one together.

Still a work in progress, but here's what I've come up with so far...



Portly, early 30s sportsfan seeks female companion with the ability to banter well for quiet evenings at home, outings, gatherings, and general merriment.

Strong vocabulary and command of the English language a must. Appreciation for bad puns, alliteration and random movie quotes also highly prized. Preferred qualities include contributing the occasional crossword puzzle answer, enjoyment of the culinary spectrum from fine dining to greasy spoon, and the ability to keep it quiet should you witness me doing a Roxbury-style head bob to a terrible pop song in the car. It is not my fault that “Call Me Maybe” is such a catchy tune.

For my part, I will make every effort to tone it down and shut up when you tell me to. Although anyone who knows me also knows that I have difficulty staying quiet for very long. Frankly, if I was strong in that area, there’s a good chance I wouldn’t need to be writing this. It’s probably best if you’re the assertive type, in order to pierce the rich tapestry of bullshit I often weave about my person. A quick wit and ability to craft cutting verbal barbs would be of great assistance in that area.

Must enjoy attending live sporting events, and posses the ability to feign interest in televised ones. Well, perhaps “feign interest” is too strong a term, just steering clear of heavy sighs and eye rolls, followed by condescending statements along the lines of “sports are so stupid” would be fine. Actually watching or pretending to watch is a plus, but ultimately not a difference-maker. At least as long as I can avoid reprimand for reading a book during any American Idol/Real Housewives-style viewing.

Green Bay Packer fans or cat people need not apply, and if you’re unable to filter your thoughts on the stupidity of fantasy sports, that’s likely going to be a problem as well. I already know most of my hobbies are dumb, telling me about it helps no one.

Looks like we made it

In most ways, I’m a very typical Minnesotan.

I enjoy hockey, draw out my vowels, appreciate a nice piece of fish, pretty much the standard stuff.

But there is one place where I differ greatly from many people in this and other cold-weather climes: I’m always happy to see the summer months go.

Sure, there are some things I enjoy about them, trips to the lake and baseball games being the most prominent. But by and large, they just don’t do it for me.  Particularly July, which is really just February's warm-weather cousin. As I’ve written about at length in the past, the world is far more interesting once summer starts winding down.

So, for those of you that love the heat, don't panic, you've still got plenty of time to finish off your summer agenda.  I don't mean to be putting thoughts of snow flurries in your mind, because that's definitely not something I'm looking forward to either. 

It's just that the dullest month on the calendar in terms of events has just passed.  Now that we've finally made it to August, I can start thinking about all the things between now and the aforementioned snow that make it my favorite time of year.

Here, in no particular order, are 25 of the things that make the next 3 months the most exceptional on the calendar:

1. 75-degree days and 55-degree nights

2. The State Fair

3. No humidity

4. Leaves changing

5. T-shirt weather in the afternoon giving way to sweatshirt weather at night

6. The fact that every sports radio and TV program gets 5000% more interesting

7. Beautiful scenery everywhere you look

8. The end of road construction

9. No rainy days

10. Leaving the windows open so a cool breeze can blow through the house

11. Hoodies

12. Oktoberfest beers hitting the shelves at liquor stores

13. The Oktoberfest celebration at Gasthof’s

14. Bonfires

15. Tailgating

16. Hitting the patios along West 7th before a Wild game

17. Fantasy football drafts

18. Raking leaves (the first time, then it quickly becomes a pain in the ass)

19. Making the walk from Stub’s or Sally’s over to Mariucci Arena without a parka

20. Sitting on the porch, listening to the Van Morrison song “Golden Autumn Day”

21. Taking the dog through the woods without a single drop of sweat forming

22. Baseball pennant races and playoffs

23. Catching the scent of burning leaves on the wind

24. College football

25. NFL football

And as a bonus, this year includes my favorite part of the Olympics, the closing ceremony.