(Thief River Falls is just a weird name for a city. I know there are plenty of oddly named cities around, but imagine traveling somewhere else and telling people you were form Thief River Falls, Minnesota. Nothing against the city, just a bizarre-sounding name. Being from Climax would be cooler.)
Gotta love watching the kids play hockey, all the guys saying whatup to family members in intros, the announcers telling us that this is the first time three brothers had formed the reffing crew of a tourney game, the TRF fan with the sign talking smack to Warroard, the whole thing is uniquely Minnesotan. Let's be honest, there isn't too much that makes this state special, friendly people and world-class hockey are about it. Fortunately, those are both high priorities for me, so things are working out well.
But as fun as watching the high schools can be, it's only an appetizer, with the main course of the Final Five on the way next week. I guess that makes the first round of the WCHA playoffs the soup/salad of this analogy. Best-of-3 series commence Friday at the homes of the higher seeds, and given the parity that's been a theme this season, I'm inclined to think that there could be a few upsets.
And then I got to looking at the last 10 years of WCHA history to determine how many upsets had occurred (losing team and their seed in brackets):
2001 - 0
2002 - 0
2003 - 0
2004 - 2 (Denver - #4, Wisconsin - #3)
2005 - 0
2006 - 2 (Denver - #2, Colorado College - #5)
2007 - 2 (Denver - #4, Colorado College - #5)
2008 - 1 (Mankato - #4)
2009 - 1 (Colorado College - #4)
2010 - 0
Without any great statistical analysis, it seems like this indicates a couple of things:
- There's likely to be one upset, but definitely not more than two
- Denver or CC will be the likely victim. (Kind of puts the Pioneers ridiculous winning streak at the X in perspective when you realize they only got there half the time)
(1) North Dakota vs. (12) Overconfidence
Okay, technically the opponent is Michigan Tech, but after last week's 17-3 beatdown, the Sioux should roll to a couple of easy wins. Tech gave them some fits three years ago in Grand Forks, pushing things to a rather uncomfortable 2-1 Sunday victory, but that was 9th place Tech team with 22 points, this is a historically brutal one with 6. Nothing short of a salmonella outbreak following tonight's team dinner should push things that far this time around.
And now I'm worried about salmonella.
North Dakota sweep 5-1, 5-2
(2) Denver vs. (11) Mankato
Given the above history Denver would seem to be the most likely candidate for an upset, but given the fact that they're a #2 seed playing a struggling team, I just don't see it. They lost as a #2 five years ago, but that was against a Duluth team a few years removed from a Frozen Four, this one's against Mankato. Not to mention that these days, the distance between 2nd place in the WCHA and 2nd-to-last is two teams wider.
Denver sweep 4-2, 3-1
(3) Nebraska-Omaha vs. (10) Bemidji
From the 5-6 games I've watched each of these teams play this season, I'm of the opinion that Omaha is good and Bemidji not so much. This puts me at a loss to explain why Bemidji is 3-0-1 on the season versus Omaha. It doesn't help that I didn't get to see their matchups, but judging by the box scores, the Beavers goalies have some sort of mind control over the Mavericks. They've only put 5 pucks past Bemidji goaltenders in 4 games this season. You might even say they are Beaver-whipped. (wah wah waaaaaaaaaahhhh)
Now this certainly wouldn't be the first time that a bunch of guys weren't doing their best work because they had Beaver on the brain, but the question remains, will they snap out of it? I think so, but not before Bemidji puts a scare into them. Beaver.
Omaha wins 3-2 (OT), 4-2
(4) Duluth vs. (9) St. Cloud
The team nobody wanted to play, going up against the team that appears to have peaked a couple months ago. Down the stretch, St. Cloud finally turned into the team that everyone expected it to be all season long. Their 4-2-2 stretch to close the season began by taking 3 of 4 points from the Bulldogs in Duluth. Since then, one-goal losses to North Dakota and Denver are the only blemishes on their record. Contrast that with a Duluth team who stumbled home winning only 2 of their last 8, and you can understand why everyone and their brother is falling all over themselves to pick the upset. But the unfortunate thing about conventional wisdom? It's usually wrong. Try making NFL picks for a full season and tell me otherwise.
Duluth still has the best line in college hockey for my money, and that has to factor in. Although some teams have been effective at shutting it down lately, and their deadly powerplay might get fewer chances in the postseason, I like the odds of Fontaine and the Connolly brothers raising their game to put the Dogs over the top.
Duluth wins 4-3, 3-5, 4-2
(5) Minnesota vs (8) Anchorage
The WCHA league office, many of my closest friends and bar owners up and down West 7th St will be watching this matchup with rapt attention. Will the Gophers triumph and bring the crowds (and their wallets) to St. Paul next weekend? Or will they fall back into the trap of playing down to an opponent, and refuel the Fire Lucia bandwagon? If not for St. Cloud's schizophrenic season, Minnesota would easily be the most perplexing team in the league. Their final position is not much of a surprise (I picked them 6th) but the journey to get here has been an odd one. They've beaten Michigan, North Dakota, Duluth and Denver, but got swept by Mankato and dropped a home game to Anchorage 1-0 a little over a month ago. Last weekend was another good example of play that can only be described as lackadaisical, as they spent periods of each game against Bemidji alternately dominating, then being dominated. This weird habit of turtling against inferior teams is the only reason I'm giving the Seawolves any chance at a win.
To be clear, Anchorage is not a good team. They're 4 games over .500 at home, 5 games under on the road. They managed a grand total of 2 goals in 120 minutes of hockey during their last trip to Dinkytown. Sure they got some good goaltending and went 7-4 to end the season, but 4 of those wins were against Tech and Mankato, another the aforementioned shutout of the Gophers. The Seawolves wouldn't make me nervous, but as proven, the Gophers can float.
Minnesota wins 4-1, 1-2, 5-1
(6) Colorado College vs. (7) Wisconsin
These two teams split last week in Madison, so probably a good idea to call 3 games. Who wins is another matter. Home ice and the fact the Badgers have sucked for about a month initially made me lean toward CC. But then I remembered thay they're CC and this is the postseason, which forced me to step back and re-evaluate. Call it a gut feeling, but I'm going with Bucky.
Wisconsin wins 3-2, 1-5, 4-3
A Final Six of Denver, Duluth, Omaha, Minnesota, Nodak and Wisco would be fine with me.
It's been a weird year where every team has had it's rough patches. North Dakota had an ugly stretch of Friday night losses in January. Denver, Duluth and Omaha all had good seasons, but don't come in playing their best hockey. Minnesota started terrible, but ended pretty well. And a whole lot of other teams played just well enough, for just long enough, to scare you.
Ding! Ding! Round One...
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