Upon further review

No, no, it’s not about the stupid officials, that’s been beaten to near Olympic levels of dead horsemanship.  Green Bay got screwed, but everyone is still going to watch football this week regardless.  In fact, it may even lead to more people watching football, just to see what happens.  Besides, as a friend of mine said to me yesterday, what did your dad used to say when you came away from a bad loss complaining about the refs?  He’d say, “next time, make another play, don’t put the game in their hands and give them the chance to blow it”. 

Sure, things are pretty comical at this point, but I thought it was worse watching teams get extra downs and challenges, or penalties marked wrong than blown calls on the field.  Stuff that happens at full speed like what occurred on Monday night is really less egregious, at least it had to be judged in a split second.  Isn’t it a lot worse when they come back from a TV timeout and don’t know what down it is?  Put another way, any umpire can make a bad strike call, but nobody ever gets a 4^th out.

Besides, there’s no time to dwell on that negativity.  Continuing the tone of the hockey lockout post of last week, screaming to high heaven on Tuesday just so you can hunker down for games on Sunday only points out how powerless you are.  Like many dysfunctional relationships, why not take the tried and true path of simply ignoring the problem?  Bury that sucker in the back of your mind, and instead HOW BOUT THEM VIKINGS?!?!?!?

Now sure, I know what you’re going to say, aren’t I the guy who spent last week blasting everything about this team?  The coach with one good win to his credit?  The front office who’d assembled a talentless roster?  The QB who’d look better with a clipboard and ballcap?  Guilty as charged.  I thought we were watching a historically inept Vikings team here, turns out it may only be partially useless.  Anyway, I’m not here to talk about the past, I’m here to look toward the future!

Everything pointed to the Vikings losing by double digits to San Francisco last Sunday.  Instead they put together a fantastic game featuring brilliant quarterback play, overcame referee incompetence and pulled out the most memorable win of the last two-plus seasons. 

Do I think this was likely just a case of San Francisco getting caught in a trap game after playing brilliantly in prime time the first two weeks?  Yes. 

Am I going to let that stop me from extrapolating this one result into delusional statements like “looking around the league and considering the schedule, it’s not insane to think about this team challenging for a playoff spot” and “if Christian Ponder turns into a legit NFL QB, this will be performance that started it all”?  Of course not!

(Humor me here people, I’m a man in the midst of a four-sport, 718-day playoff drought, with a last place baseball team, a locked-out hockey team and a gimpy point guard.  I need this.)

The great Bill Simmons used a takeoff on a Seinfeld episode a few years ago, referring to the Green Bay Packers as “The Onion-Eating Dime Spotter” in reference to their unpredictable play.  Much like George Costanza’s inconsistent sight (he mistakes an onion for an apple, yet can spot a dime from across the room), you just didn’t know what you were going to get out of this team from week to week.  Obviously, you could say this about a lot of teams after a crazy first three weeks, but could Minnesota be this season’s Onion-Eating Dime Spotter?

I originally had them pegged for 5 wins: JAX, @WAS, ARI, CHI, @STL.  With the exception of the Arizona game, none of those opponents have really done anything to make the games look tougher during the first three weeks, and a few other opponents look more vulnerable.  So if we swap the Niners game for Arizona to leave the total at 5, is it possible to find 3 or 4 more wins and get the team into playoff striking distance?  Sure we can!

Week 4 (@DET) – Matthew Stafford is gimpy, the Lions gave up 44 points last week, no reason we can’t win this one.  Other than the 4 TDs Calvin Johnson is going to catch. (2-2)

Week 5 (TEN) – These guys are terrible, can’t believe I thought they were going 9-7, easy win. (3-2)

Week 6 (@WAS) – Ditto.  Plus we always beat the Redskins, must be because of their racist nickname. (4-2)

Week 7 (ARI) – Every time I hear the phrase “the 3-0 Cardinals”, my face involuntarily screws up in the same fashion as when someone say “this tastes terrible, taste this”. (4-3)        

Week 8 (TB) – Hmmm, tough one, time to give hope a chance. (5-3)

Week 9 (@SEA) – Seattle is where hope goes to die. (5-4)

Week 10 (DET) – Big home win to stay in the hunt. (6-4)

Week 11 (Bye)

Week 12 (@CHI) – Bye or no, the Vikings never win in Chicago. (6-5)

Week 13 (@GB) – Where’s Golden Tate when you need him? (6-6)

Week 14 (CHI) – Aging defense and a couple more injuries to the O-line?  Cutler being Bad Cutler?  Okay, I’m reaching, still chalking up a ‘W’. (7-6)

Week 15 (@STL) – WE’RE COMIN!!! (8-6)

Week 16 (@HOU) – We’re going, going… (8-7)

Week 17 (GB) – Gone.  Lose at home to your biggest rival in the final week of the season to miss the playoffs.  That my friends, is a fitting season for any Vikings team. (8-8)

The playoff push that falls heartbreakingly short, this passes for optimism around here, dare to dream!

This fish rots from the head down

First off, allow me to be the one millionth person in this country to say thank you to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots for screwing me over last week.  You could’ve hit a couple of those deep balls you overthrew, instead I’m out a survivor pool entry and $120 from a failed parlay in which the first two teams covered.  It’s like you knew my gambling future depending on you playing well, that’s the only explanation I can come up with, to think I was the only person I know who actually rooted for you in those last two Super Bowls.

Now, speaking of glaring ineptitude, let’s talk about the Vikings.

The nice part about rooting for a rebuilding team is you don’t have to get upset when they lose.  The annoying part is that anyone can come up with a rebuttal for anything that happens.  Good or bad, no insights can be gleaned from any of it.  I know we live in the age of microwave analysis, and that bothers me at times (although typically I just think it’s hilarious), but will someone please let me know when I have clearance to express an opinion on things?

Because it really just comes down to what you feel like believing…

Either Christian Ponder looks good or Christian Ponder's only looks good because he hasn’t thrown a pass that traveled the length of a Buick yet.

Either they're afraid to throw downfield or they're just taking what the defense is giving them.

Either AP looks like he’s back or we won’t know if AP is back until we see how he holds up late in the season.

Either linebackers aren’t supposed to be covering wide receivers in the Cover-2 or the linebacker has gotta make that play for the Cover-2 to work.

However you want to spin it, they’ve got a rebuttal for you.  But there are two things I’m not interested in hearing anymore: 

You can’t blame the GM for the lousy roster because he just got the job.

You can’t blame the coaches for the crappy gameplan because they don’t have any talent to work with.

I'm an insane, reactionary fan, and I will blame whoever I want, whenever it suits me.

People hand Rick Spielman the excuse that he isn’t responsible for the current state of the roster, because he didn’t have final say on trades or draft picks.  If true, then I have to ask, what exactly did he do during his time as VP of Pro Personnel?  Is the fact we have no defensive backs or wide receivers (save Harvin) to speak of really 100% on Brad Childress?  I hope so, but I’m not sure I buy it.  Frankly it continues to strike me as incredibly bizarre that this whole thing was not blown up after Chilly was fired, it would’ve been the perfect time to break with the past and totally start fresh. 

Beyond front office concerns, I’m also not sure I buy Leslie Frazier as anything more than a coordinator.  He seems like a great guy and I know he’s saddled with poor talent, but good coaches sometimes jump up and gameplan overmatched teams to victory.  It’s not impossible to win just because you don’t have the most talented team on the field, as we see every year when talent-poor teams switch coaches and see a decent bump in victories as a result.  I’m not saying I expect him to be a miracle worker and somehow guide this team into the playoffs, just occasionally find a way to beat a team they shouldn’t beat. 

In 24 games as the Vikings coach, Leslie Fraizer is 7-17, with only one of those wins coming against a team that ended the season with a winning record (I am preemptively counting the 2012 Jacksonville Jaguars here, I believe you’d agree).  That one win was the only inspired Fraizer gameplan that springs to mind, Week 16 in 2010, 5 games into his tenure, in a bizarre Tuesday evening tilt that had been rescheduled due to a snowstorm in Philadelphia.  They moved Antoine Winfield all over the place, blitzing him from every possible angle and confusing Michael Vick all night.  It was a big upset of a quality opponent, and the kind of great defensive scheme you’d occasionally expect from a coach with a defensive pedigree.  Sadly, there hasn’t really been another one since.

So, those are my two simple questions.  Do we have the right guy putting together a winning roster?  Assuming he does do that, do we have a coach who can get the most out of them? 

Bonus question would be why is the Christian Ponder era starting to remind me a bit of the Tarvaris Jackson era?  But I already know the answer to that one.  It’s the Catch-22 style “you can’t judge a QB until you get him some good receivers to throw to, but you can’t tell if receivers are good unless they have a legit QB throwing to them” circle of reasoning.  Maybe Sid Rice 2.0 is already on the roster and he just needs someone to get him the damn ball.

But the first two are probably enough to chew on for now, let’s leave the QB discussion until two years from now when he’s released later.

I guess all there is to do is wait for the answers, and perhaps start reading up on 2013 draft prospects in the meantime.

2012 State of the 'Ville: Minnesota Vikings

“If you're going through hell, keep going” - Winston Churchill, discussing the 2011 Minnesota sports scene

Happy New Year friends, or more appropriately, it’s a new year, happily.

2011 had some great moments that will always be remembered. People got married, engaged, had children, achieved goals, reached milestones and generally accomplished all manner of admirable feats in the parts of life that truly count. For everything you’ve done, and everything you’re happy about, I offer a tip of the cap, and my sincerest hope for success in all future endeavors.

Unfortunately this blog is about Minnesota sports, and by all measures in that department, things remain pretty shitty.  At the beginning of 2011, we had a baseball team that couldn't make it past the first round of the playoffs, a football team that had declined faster than Tara Reid in the late-90s, basketball and hockey teams working on multi-year playoff droughts and a university who's revenue sports probably thought "postseason" was a brand of cereal.

Nowadays, times have changed.  I don't mean that in the traditional sense, as in facing a significantly different set of circumstances, just that times have literally changed.  It's 2012 now.

Where was I going with this?

Ahh yes, hope, capital H-O-P-E, which springs eternal and is never stronger than the third day of a new year.  The hangover from the New Year's party has finally worn off and you’re once again able to perceive more than general outlines of objects.  People have been fired, players drafted, free agents signed, it's a brave new world...just not one in which you'd notice much difference.

But certainly some things have gotten better, and in the case of those that haven't, at least several people have been fired, which is really the next best thing.  I bring to you a message of hope which, although not always conveyed in my writing, is nonetheless felt deeply in my heart. We may not get to the mountaintop in 2012, but I’m fairly certain we can make it out of last place!

Unfortunately, before we can ring in the limitless potential of the new calendar year, we first need to do the postmortem on the old.  The State of the 'Ville as it were, an annual tradition being broken up into five segments over the next week: Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Twins and U of M.

None of these stories are particularly happy ones as yet, but we can’t consider where we’re going without acknowledging where we’ve been. And that, in a word, is down. So there’s really nothing to do but pump it up, or find a new hobby.

Let's start with the saddest state of affairs.


The 2011 Minnesota Vikings: Just disappointment, hold the heartbreak
Moving into 2012, I am thankful that my enjoyment of the NFL as a league grows less dependent on the Minnesota Vikings with each passing year. I will always watch and never stop hoping, but it’s just too good a league to let your enjoyment of the whole hinge on the actions of one franchise.

Particularly one with the questionable decision-making history of this one.

Rick Spielman’s promotion to GM is the most recent chapter in the “Right Idea, Wrong Execution” saga of the Purple.  You're familiar with this, it's where the team finally does what it should've done a couple seasons earlier, only now with the worst possible timing imaginable.

Take the Brad Childress hire, when a new set of owners took over from the prior skinflint and immediately decided to shell out big time money for the hotshot coordinator on the market.  The only problem was, the new guy was worse than the old guy, who had actually achieved pretty impressive success, given his budget.  Call Mike Tice a buffoon if you'd like, but that buffoon finished .500 or better in each of his last three seasons and beat Green Bay in the playoffs with a roster of spare parts.  Who knows, if not for Fred Smoot and the Loveboat, maybe he sticks around and gets the benefit of the deep pockets that propped Chilly up for four years.

For a more recent example, how about the selection Christian Ponder in last year's draft?  The team finally throws a high draft pick at a franchise QB, which fans had been clamoring for ever since they learned how to pronounce "Tarvaris".  Only problem is, it's about three years to late to make any difference.  So you get what they got, a poor rookie, forced to run for his life behind a washed-up offensive line that at times could've been booked for assault on a good day and attempted murder on a bad.

(Please note that this is not a write-off of Ponder, which would be hugely premature.  Plenty of good NFL QBs have looked as bad or worse as rookies. The point is, any way you slice it, drafting him was a poorly timed move. The day after they made the horrendous reach to grab him with the 12th pick in the 1st round, I wrote about my concerns, and the implications for the long-term future of the franchise. Eight months and ten games later, I stand by every word.  It just didn’t make sense, given where the team was at. Chances were, they would end up with what they got, a banged up rookie who got worse as the season wore on.)

Success in sports is a combination of talent and timing; unfortunately if it weren’t for bad timing, the Vikings would have none at all.  Poor timing explains how you find yourself outbidding your biggest rival for a coach during the same offseason they hire the one that leads them to a championship. It’s how you find yourself with a questionable rookie QB you reached for in the 1st round, when entering a draft with the 3rd overall pick and potential franchise talents on the board.

Some of that bad timing can be chalked up to moves that looked good on paper, but didn’t work out for various reasons (Childress), and some to knee-jerk reactions that came a few years too late (Ponder).  Sadly, for us fans, it doesn’t matter what led up to the mistake, just that it was made.  And when you make enough of them, it amounts to 3-13, with little chance of a quick turnaround.

Which brings us back to Spielman, the first true Vikings GM in a very long time. Many fans have felt for years that the Vikings needed a clearer power structure, but it’s doubtful that this is what they had in mind. It’s nothing personal; in fact it’s impossible to know exactly how much influence he wielded in the team’s convoluted power structure. But being so prominently involved with a team that's been going the wrong direction for a few years now, makes this move feel like asking the drunk guy in the passenger seat who just puked out the window to slide over and take the wheel.

Most Vikings fans were probably hoping that this was some kind of reward for being the voice of dissention on years of bad personnel moves.  That this guy was the one guy saying "bad idea", when bring Brett Favre back or drafting Ponder was on the table.  That would at least make sense in Costanza-like fashion, when you're making all the wrong moves, go with the guy who wanted to do the opposite!

Unfortunately, today’s press conference made it very clear that was not the case, and we're sticking with the status quo: Spielman was on board with the major moves, Fraizer is the coach, Ponder is the QB, things move forward on that basis.  Understanding that it won't work to have heads rolling every year, how does it makes sense to go 180 degrees in the other direction and offer a member of the current brain trust a promotion?  This perplexes me more than people who shop on Black Friday.

Among fans, the most ringing endorsements today have been along the lines of “well, at least now we’ll know who’s to blame when things go poorly”.  That inspires about as much confidence as “I’m not ready to write Ponder off until I see him play behind a decent offensive line”.  A hint of positivity remains, but just a hint.  For further hints, you can cherry-pick the successes of a Spielman-led front office in drafting some exceptional (if almost exclusively 1st-round) talents.  But taking a look at the current roster makes it very clear that that the successes further down the draftboard were pretty much nonexistent.

It does of course have to be admitted that some of the current state of affairs is cyclical, and not everything can be blamed on those currently in charge.  It’s just the natural ebb and flow of sports that every decade or so, a down year comes along. The team bottoms out, rebuilds, makes it’s run, gets older and more expensive, before you know it, you’re back to square one.

The sell-out to win it all with Favre is part of what put us here, and it’s really no different than the 5-11 record of 2001 that marked the end of the Vertical Vikes era, or the down years of the early-90s that ushered in Dennis Green. But between each of those troughs were also periods of great success, strings of playoff appearances, and even a couple legitimately great teams. While this franchise has at times been inept, it has never seemed hopelessly so. My favorite cliché about the NFL is that it stands for Not For Long, regardless of where you find yourself currently, don’t get too used to it.

But with all that said, this is literally as bad as things have ever been, and if the current regime screws up this pivotal offseason, they could remain that way for some time.  I’d like to think that things can be turned on a dime, and the Vikes will be back to blowing conference championships before we know it, but today's developments aren't very reassuring.

Where we are: Rock f*cking bottom.

2012 Ceiling:
They don't blow the draft, Ponder stays alive and they show reasonable improvement (5-6 wins) against a weak schedule - 50% chance.

They blow the draft, Ponder takes more hits than Sam Hurd's address book and our favorite football team descends into a state of Lionesque football purgatory for the next half-decade - 50% chance.

Long-term prognosis: Superbowl homeboy!!!

Because if you don't have faith, Vikings football just isn't for you.

Packing it in

These are the days when it’s good to be in it for the long haul.

The recurring thought running through my head during the second half of last night’s Vikings evisceration at the hands of the Green Bay Packers was:
Is this the worst Vikings team of my lifetime? Or just the perfect storm of a lousy team running into a historically great one?

After a fair amount of pondering that question (pun!), I’ve come to the conclusion that there have indeed been worse versions of the Purple, but few times that they’ve found themselves surrounded by so much strength.

The 2001 Vikings went 5-11, with a point differential of -100; the 2002 squad 6-10 and -52. Those teams had to deal with Favre-led Packer teams, and a Bears club that went 13-3 in 2001; but the Lions were a perennial doormat, and there’s no way you could convince me that those Bear teams, regardless of their great defenses, are better than the current version. When Jim Miller and Shane Mathews are your starting quarterbacks, you don’t get good team status (a point was borne out when Chicago slipped to 4-12 in 2002).

The current version sits at 2-7, and has been outscored by 65 points following last night’s 45-7 destruction. Although Viking fans, myself included, spent Monday trying to talk themselves into the “any given Sunday” angle, the reality was that they were completely outclassed from the word go. Any given Sunday, odd things can happen. But unfortunately this was Monday, it was Lambeau, and the opponent was a Packer team that, at least offensively, is among the most surgical in recent memory.

It was an embarrassment, the worst loss ever at the hands of Green Bay. There was no moral victory potential, no positive takeaways, just a flat-out asskicking administered by the team every Vikings fan wants to beat most.
But this brings us back to the point about the long haul. As usual, people are going to parse today, and try drawing grander conclusions than they should be. In a disappointing season, there’s always a rush to assign blame, regardless of how warranted it actually is. Accountability is important, but more important is the realization that quick fixes can fall apart pretty fast. If you put a Band-Aid where stitches are required, don’t be surprised when you keep bleeding. At this point, my favorite team is in transplant territory, and hoping to avoid having to amputate.

Teams go bad-to-good quickly in this league, and vice-versa, that much is true. But when you look at the teams that do, they’re typically starting from a strong foundation, built tough up front, killer defense, etc. Then a piece or two arrives and changes things dramatically. The Vikings don’t fit this mold, they simply don’t have very many capable players in most areas of the team.

Is it time to blow it up? Probably. With the exception of Jared Allen and Adrian Peterson, the “stars” on this team seem to be more getting by more on reputation these days than dominant play. The linebackers are decent, the defensive line solid, but the offensive line, defensive backs and receiving corps possesses few players who look like starters on a good NFL team. Sure, many of the guys in these spots are young, but that’s only a consolation if they’re good, and more than a few have offered plenty of evidence to the contrary.

Other than Peterson, Allen, Kevin Williams and Chad Greenway, nobody on the roster seems to be a surefire blue-chipper anymore. Even the few guys listed have had moments that made you question their value over the past couple seasons. The Vikings should listen to offers for anyone, and if they’re blown away, make the deal. The problem with free agents, be it signing them from elsewhere or paying to keep your own, is that they’re going to be overpriced at some point or another. It’s the nature of the beast, but with 5 years of suspect drafting, this team needs bodies at just about every spot, nobody should be untouchable.

They also need an experienced GM, with full control over the football personnel decisions. This is less a criticism of Rick Spielman, and more so a bizarre way of doing things that’s been around for decades. The “Triangle of Authority” structure was just the latest example of what has always been a somewhat murky front office situation, and it seems well past time to establish a clearer chain of command. Input from many sources always leads to better decisions, but ultimately it should be clear to everyone involved who’s making the calls. That clarity has been lacking for a long time, going all the way back to Mike Lynn/Gang of 10 ownership era.

Since then, it’s been a long run of quick fixes and strange bedfellows, culminating with this season, in which there’s a new coach paired with a holdover front office. This would seem to imply that a deep and talented roster was only being held back by poor gameplanning and motivation. From where I’m sitting, that has never appeared to be the case. It’s easy to Monday Morning Quarterback drafts, but my tune on the last few drafts has been the same since the day they happened.

Percy Harvin admittedly looked great for a year, but now is morphing into a rich man’s David Palmer. Chris Cook had injury and character issues in college, it’s not surprising they’re continuing (meanwhile, the guy I was pounding the table for on draft night, Patrick Robinson, is turning into a solid contributor in the Saints secondary). And don’t even get me started on this past year, whatever you think of Ponder and Rudolph, drafting a quarterback and tight end with your first two picks, when you have no offensive line or secondary, is not defensible.

As for the coach and quarterback, the only grades that can be handed out at this point are incompletes. If they want to fire Fraizer and ditch Ponder, I’m not throwing myself in front of the bus, but please, if you do so, then get serious about blowing everything up and building from scratch. The coach may not be getting the most of the players he has, but he doesn’t have the players to win, either. The best defense I heard offered for the quarterback’s up-and-down college career was that he never played with elite skill position players at Florida St. Save for Peterson and (at times) Harvin, he still hasn’t; I’ll withhold a final verdict until he plays with a line that can keep him upright and receivers who are suited to their roles. Not to mention significantly more talented than the current crop.

It’s a bummer when the Viking stink this badly, it really is. Last night’s game should’ve been an event, people should’ve been inspired to gather with friends, head out to bars, just generally gear up for the big game. Instead, most that I know expected what they ended up getting, making it tough to muster much enthusiasm for any get togethers. Unfortunately, the competition is as tough as it’s ever been, and things aren’t going to turn on a dime. As fans, we need to take the long view, be willing to consider every option, and hope the powers that be make the right calls to build something sustainable for the long term.

But hey, look at the bright side, in a couple of years, this might all be Los Angeles' problem.

Wait a minute...

Moral(e) Victory

I've never been a big moral victory guy.

It's easy to understand why coaches and players need to pull positive points from overall negative situations, particularly when they're focusing on the future.  Playing even during the second half, consistently moving the ball, showing some flashes, this is the language of teams who just got beat...but got beat by less than they were supposed to.  It's a effective tool when used sparingly, but go to the well too often, and you'll be dismissed as a buffoon.

Gopher football has always been the most fertile ground from which to harvest moral victories, and Old Farmer Brewster the greatest purveyor it's ever known.  Cherry-picking the good points and glossing over the bad worked for awhile.  But once your major highlight is the fact that you've scored last in all your blowout losses, you've taken a left turn from Positivetown to Delusionville.

That's why this is such an odd feeling, on a weekend where both local football teams lost, the main thought running through my head was: "Hey, that could've been much worse!"

Sure, the Gophers got blown out of the water early, but at least managed to keep things from descending into another 50-point abyss.  The Vikings hung in with the NFL's best team, even having an outside shot to win the game, while getting a bit of spark from their new rookie QB.  Heck, even the Wild managed to scrape up a point in Vancouver before losing in OT.  A trifecta of "good" losses, if there is such a thing. 

Would any of this be viewed with a shred of positivity if the bar hadn't been lowered to ridiculous levels?  Of course not. But when you're on a forced march through the barren desert, you need to talk yourself into the idea that their might be an oasis just over the next dune.  Helps you to keep putting one foot in front of the other.

There are no Vikings or Gopher fans, or at least none who would be considered sane in a court of law, still holding out hope for the 2011 season.  That was entinguished some time ago, if it ever really existed to being with.  Now we get to kick back, and enjoy the season without all the angst of impending playoff doom.  Sure there's still a bit of ongoing drama related to the fact that our team could end up playing it's home games a thousand miles away in the near future, but let's put that aside and focus on the positive.

Because Christian Ponder looked pretty good, or at least good by comparison.  People like me, who were concerned about starting a rookie from day one, were reminded that a rookie is an upgrade, when the alternative is a corpse.  He ran around a bit, made a few plays, gave them a chance; with this supporting cast, that's all we can ask for.  Of course, this does not mean that we should expect long-term success, my bust expectation has not changed.  But it is intriguing, and at the moment, that's all we can ask for.

Not throwing bouquets at everyone though, so I'll end an oddly optimistic blog with some venomous invective.

My hatred for Broncos QB Tim Tebow is well-chronicled, most notably here.  The events of the past 24 hours have brought me to a very important decision:

Be it know that as of today, October 24th, in the year of our lord 2011, Tim Tebow shall be dubbed the official nemesis of the Loserville Chronicles.

Why?  Well the short answer is because everyone needs a nemesis, as we learned from the Count of Monte Cristo.  Love may be good for writing songs, but it's grudges, and the settling of scores, that keep things moving along. Do you think American society would be anywhere near where it is today if not for the Soviet threat pushing things for half a century?  Everyone needs somebody to keep them on their toes, I'm up to 5 or 6 different nemeses these days.  Not a list you want to be on, trust me, nevermind the fact that most of them don't know who I am.

Why specifically Tebow?  Can't say there's really a logical basis for hating him personally, but the fervor of his supporters alone offers ample reason to want him to fail.

I'll let regular reader Brent from Denver explain:

I was getting to the point of being able to tolerate my city's home team....

I went to lunch. When I first get into my car, Rome is talking Tebow. Change the channel, Cowherd is talking Tebow. Change to the local guys....talking Tebow. Get home to eat, turn on sports center, they are breaking down plays from Tebow's game. Get back in the car to come to work and here is a paraphrased phone call from a local rube:

"All these national guys are drooling over what Ponder did in Minnesota and nobody is giving Tebow any credit. Ponder is surrounded by all those wepons. He threw for under 50% just like Tebow, yet they say Ponder is so great. But Tebow won! Ponder didn't. I don't understand why he gets no credit".

I am not over stating this. I HAVE NEVER SEEN A QB PLAY WORSE THAN TEBOW DID YESTERDAY. NEVER. If Tebow played like Spurgeon Wynn, they would have won that game by 14 points.

One could understand that view coming from Denver, but even at a bar in Minnesota, the Tebow comeback was greeted with a roar typically reserved for Vikings TDs.  It would appear that a whole lot of people out there are on board, and there's nothing that irritates me more than the blind awarding of underserved credit.

I never hated Michael Phelps, just Phelps fans.  Never hated LeBron James (well, never before The Decision at least), just hated the media for creating an endless two-year saga leading up to his impending free agency.  Never even hated Brett Favre, just the godlike status afforded to him.  But I am starting to hate Tim Tebow, because he's trending closer to Kim Kardashian than any of the athletes previously mentioned, making headlines more on the basis of his image than his ability.

Oh sure, there are accomplishments galore when it comes to football, but much of the Tebow admiration has nothing to do with the game he plays.  That makes me uneasy, as the game is my only concern .  I respect the guy's belief system, that's his business, and a personal thing.  But I support separation of church and sport, and the best way I see to avoid more abortion ads during the Super Bowl is for Tim Tebow's career to flame out quickly and completely.

Do I recognize the silliness in what I just wrote, criticizing the upstanding citizen while a Vikings defensive back sits jailed on a domestic assault charge that includes the word "strangulation"?  Of course I do.  This is sports hate, we'll leave the true hate for real life.

But that's the point, this isn't real life, this is sports, so no cross-pollinating with the parts of life that actually matter.  You keep hopping over the line Mr. Tebow, not to mention your supporters are really annoying, so here's hoping you're gone from the league very soon.

Nothing personal, nemesis.

Points to Ponder

Life has been conspiring lately to prevent me from posting much.  I could take the advice of friends, and stop posting novels, trading length for frequency (hey now!), but when you get on a roll, it can be tough to shut up.  Work and school, always distracting from the important things in life.  In perhaps the best month on the sports calendar, I've posted the least, and that's unnaceptable.

Full slates off football and hockey, with the World Series to boot, anticipation of weekends like this is what sustains me through those long boring months known as summer.  Although being stuck in a library will rob me of the opportunity to catch Nebraska's annihilation of the Gophers in person, the rest of the weekend has been kept wide open for sports viewing, it's time to rube it up.

So, what's happening around town?

• Following last week's lament about my struggles picking football games, my sister, Rainwoman, promptly turned in a 5-8 week and allowed me to cut the deficit by 3 games.  Trend or mirage?  Fluke or example of regression to the mean?  Is she hearing the footsteps?  Is the pressure getting to her?  I'd like to think so!  Just had to bring it up, fan the flames of indecision a bit.  (Are you sure that's the right pick?  Positive?  I wouldn't do that if I were you!)  Psychological warfare at it's finest, pulling out all the stops

• I didn't write anything previewing the Wild this season, but like everyone else, I'm predicting them to be on the playoff bubble, hopefully creeping in.  Failure to do so would mean the earliest chance Minnesota has to snap it's pro sports playoff drought would be the end of the next Twins season in October 2012.  Two full years is a long f'n time to go without a playoff game when you have 4 pro teams.  Unfortunately, the local squad hasn't exactly been taking the NHL by storm early in the season.  Last night a goal with one second remaining was the only thing that prevented them from being shutout in Edmonton for the first time in 11 years.  Getting new players to mesh takes time, but as we've figured out the past couple of years, slow starts can spell doom.

• According to many people around town, Gopher hockey is back, following a sweep of Duluth last weekend.  I was on a roadtrip to my personal Mecca, Ralph Englestad Arena, so didn't see much of the games.  It certainly looked impressive, and you can't blame their fans for being fired up; when you're starving, even a package of Saltines can pass for a gourmet meal.  But can we keep it in check for the month of October?  Believe me, you'll have plenty of time between the Gophers sweeping the Sioux in November and the Sioux sweeping the Gophers in January to razz me all you want, let's not go too overboard on one series.  But I am happy for you...sort of.

• This town has doled out so much recent misery, it's once again time to ask our favorite question "Where is rock bottom?"  Will it be here soon?  Is it not going to arrive until the aforementioned two-year playoff drought comes to fruition?  After that?  About the only thing I can guarantee is that it is not today, because things are about to get a whole lot more ugly and embarrassing.  Stretching hundreds of miles to both the south and east are convoys of opposing football fans poised to descend on our fair city.  I'm calling it Football-O-Caust 2011 (had to add the year, due to the fact this may be an annual occurrence).  One horde will be clad in red, the other in green 'n gold, both will be making a mockery of their opponent.  Nebraska and Green Bay, welcome to town, bring money.  The Mall of America is stocked up with designer overalls, bars across town have laid in a supply of PBR, we're ready to roll.  Please take pity on our pathetic football teams, and if you see a glassy-eyed local with a look of despair, try not to pile on.

• Of course the big football story in town this week is the debut of Christian Ponder as the Vikings starting quarterback.  Ho.  Hum.  As I wrote when he was drafted, I didn't think he was very good in college, don't think he'll be very good in the pros, and just generally am not a fan.  Fortunately, I'm wrong a lot.  So let's hope that's the case here and get on board with the Ponder Era, there's really not much else you can do at this point.  It certainly can't be worse than the McNabb Era, and it will be refreshing to actually have a guy under 30 at the QB position following the recent string of greybeards.  Just don't go all giddy when he leads a nice drive in garbage time to cut the lead to 30 this Sunday, keep it in perspective.

So we're in for another weekend as a punching bag, but fear not, Minnesota fans, for we will have the last laugh.  With half the freeways in town closed this weekend (including I-35, Lincolnites) it will be a damn miracle if any of these people can even make it to the stadiums!

O/U on combined opposing team points: 90
Combined spread: 60 1/2
Giving a Cornhusker bad directions that land him in Hudson: Priceless

Enjoy the weekend.

You mad?

Yesterday, the Vikings played a strikingly similar game to the one that led to a loss in the season's first week.  Impressive starts in both games led to healthy halftime leads, but second-half meltdowns caused them to evaporate, leaving fans and media to bemoan "collapses" that cost the team victory. 

Some people are really ticked off at the thought of how close the team is to 2-0, a few of the most reactionary are already calling for the coach's head and backup QB.

My view is slightly different, but has remained unchanged from the beginning: This team just isn't that good.

The Vikes have looked impressive for stretches, and Adrian Peterson in particular has played certain series like a one-man wrecking crew.  The problem here is the same one that has plauged them since Randy Moss left town the first time (save for Favre-to-Rice -- Season I), the passing game isn't going to make big plays routinely. 

You can do the coulda/shoulda/woulda routine if you like, but the current level of angst has far more to do with opposing teams forgetting to show up early than it does the Purple failing to seal the deal late.

If either of the first two opponents were to be moved back a few weeks on the schedule, it's doubtful that the Vikes would've had the opportunity to blow the game in the first place.  Touchdowns count the same in the 1st quarter as they do the 4th, but the fast starts in these two games have felt a bit fluky, and subsequent events have borne that out.

Take a closer look at who they've played. 

The Chargers are the most notorious early-season underperformers in the league.  They have special teams breakdowns with the same frequency as Chris Cook injuries, so the opening kick return that made the game look so winnable at halftime was not a shock.  Neither was the fact that it took them the better part of two quarters to get their bearings, that's about five quarters sooner than the average Norv Turner squad figures things out.  Once they did, sans kicker and all, dispatching the Vikes was not a problem.

Similar things can be said yesterday of Tampa, a good matchup for the power running game and suspect secondary of Minnesota.  The youngest team in the league did what young teams do, walked into a road game without their minds in the right place.  After a half of getting things taken to them physically, they got them in the right place, and the rest was history.  Nothing was a foregone conclusion, but it did have a feeling of inevitability to it as soon as they cut the lead to 7 late in the 3rd quarter.

Not to play the "Knew it all along" card here, but nobody should've expected to be anything other than 0-2 at this point.  It's not illegal for a team to jump up and win a football game it should probably lose, it happens all the time, and the Vikings had ample opportunities to do so.  You can hang your hat on dropped passes, missed interceptions or blown coverages all you want, and a moment or two can certainly be the difference.  But over time, all of those little moments form a trend, and all the trends eventually morph into percentages.  The percentages say that for the long haul, we are going to see more failure than success from this club.

I picked this team to be 7-9 this season, and 2-3 when they travel to Chicago in Week 6.  Two weeks into the season, that still seems pretty likely.  The victory chalked up for next week against Detroit is suddenly dicey, but Kansas City appears to be the worst team in the league, and even this putrid pass offense stands a good chance of carving up Arizona.  Our team isn't all that bad, they just need to play someone worse.

In the meantime, let's focus less on the scores, and more on how they occur.  Does it look like our veterans will stay productive?  Does it look like the young guys are figuring it out?  Can our coaching staff throw out an interesting gameplan once in awhile?  Basically anything positive that can distract you from the fact the division suddenly looks really good, and at least six games a year for the forseeable future will be played against quarterbacks far superior to ours.

Losing close games will always stink, and the comeback here is that these two games could be the difference between making the playoffs or sitting at home.  While that may be true, it does nothing to change the fact that the absolute ceiling for this team is a Wild Card upset, at best.  Hanging in with a couple good teams is good for the psyche, but did you see anything to convince you that the current collection of players is destined for great things?

Me neither, but that's what happens when you gamble and lose.  We had a party, and this is the hangover, you can either go with some hair-of-the-dog, and a quick fix that will cost you more in the long-term, or gut out the unpleasantness. 

Put your focus on whether the QB of the future can show promise, some other pieces can emerge, and what sort of playmakers need to be put around them going forward.  I can't guarantee positive thoughts on that score either, but I can guarantee it will be better for your blood pressure.

Unpleasant realities

Don't panic, that's what they'll try and tell you.

It's still so early, there's no reason to think things can't still work out.  Plenty of time, just remain calm.

Besides, this isn't a surprise, or at least it shouldn't have been, you knew the odds were stacked against you going in.  Trying to drum up a few reasons for optimism is one thing, deluding yourself into thoughts of success, quite another.

They're right in some regards, at least the part about being honest with yourself.  As for the part about it still being early, well that just might mean we've got a whoooooole lot of bad football to sit through before things are finished.

I offer no opinions, simply numbers, judge them as you will...

1999: As in the year of our lord, nineteen hundred and ninety-nine, the last time that New Mexico State University beat a team from a BCS conference.

0: Number of longtime Gopher fans who can honestly say they were shocked by the upset

2: Number of seconds it appeared that the caliber of Gopher football might've actually killed one of their coaches.  Honestly thought we might have one of these situations on our hands, glad that wasn't the case.

39: Number of passing yards amassed by Donovan McNabb in 4 quarters of football last Sunday.

117: Corresponding number of feet

20: Feet from my couch to the fridge

61: Estimated number of yards I outgained McNabb by while grabbing beers on Sunday

1: Number of beer fridges that need to be purchased for the living room

197: Tavaris Jackson's passing yardage

309.6: Average passing yards throw for by the other three NFC North QBs

8: Number of games it would take McNabb to ammass that total at his current pace

13: Number of games it would take to equal the 511 yards Tom Brady threw for last night

187: Vikings total offensive yardage

143: Patriots offensive yardage on two first-quarter TD drives

7,482: Total passing yards in Week One, more than any other week in NFL history

245: Average passing yards per team

14: Quarterbacks who threw for over 300 yards

Infinitely: How much worse this makes McNabb's day look by comparison

3: Number of my fantasy football teams that lost (out of 3 leagues)

6-10: My record picking games against the spread

11-5: My sister's record, using a system based mostly on who would win a fight between team mascots

2.5: Over/under on how many more weeks like this I'll be able to take before changing my name and disappearing to the wilds of Canada

Lost in transition

Is there anything worse than the excruciating wait for something you're really looking forward to?  Leaving for a week's vacation on Friday always seems to make the week crawl along at an interminably slow pace.  This is where I'm currently at with the football season, while the end of the lockout and tidal wave of player movement have certainly been nice, there's still a month to wait before the games that count actually start...and it's going to be a slow one.  Sure you could look to areas outside sports for distractions, but do you really need to be reminded that the current balance of your 401k is approximately equivalent to a cup of coffee?  I thought not.

Many writers out there seem to be dealing with this year's August lull by wondering what might've been if changes were made to sports history.  Locally, Michael Rand of the Star Tribune has been re-visiting some of the more painful losses in Twins and Vikings history, wondering how history might've unfolded differently had they gone the other direction.  On a national level, SI's Joe Posnanski unveiled the concept of Sports Code, a take off on the file "Source Code", and it's notion that while you can't directly change events, you can attempt to change the circumstances surrounding them, and let the chips fall where they may from there.

Posnanski explains:

There are only two conditions that I just invented for Sports Code.



(1) You can’t change a sporting RESULT. That is to say, you can’t go back and have Scott Norwood MAKE the field goal or have Michael Jordan MISS the jumper or have that Butler kid make the halfcourt shot. You cannot make Bill Buckner field the ground ball cleanly (though you could try to convince Red Sox manager John McNamara to put in Dave Stapleton as a defensive replacement). Those are results, and they happened, and they cannot be changed (in my completely made-up scenario). No, you can only change something tangible, something that might make a difference ...

 (2) You can’t go back and create a whole new ending. That’s a slightly tricky concept, but here’s what I mean: For it to be a true Sports Code moment, you need to leave the ending open-ended. So, as much as you might want to do this, you can’t have Jim Joyce make the right call so that Armando Galarraga gets his perfect game. Because, in that case, he GETS THE PERFECT GAME, and the story is over. That’s a closed ending. The point here is to change something and then let a new ending unfold naturally.

As a serial lamenter of what might've been, this concept intrigued me, and when a friend called my attention to the article last week, I had to ask the question: What would comprise my Minnesota Sports Code Top 5?
 
About a year-and-a-half ago, on the heels of the most recent Vikings debacle, I was compelled to put together the Minnesota sports Hall of Pain, and that's where most of my inspiration is drawn from.  The first two items, in fact, have to do with the two games Rand chose to wonder about:
 
1. Tell Denny Green to stay aggressive
No one could say for sure what would've happened in the 1998 NFC Championship game had the Vikings put the pedal down and attempted to bury the Falcons with their prolific offense...but we do know for sure what going the conservative route got us.  All season long, a record-setting offense had covered up flaws in a mediocre defense by getting up big and making opponents react.  The kneel down at half was just one example the could be found of a wide-open gameplan turning conservative overnight.  They should've continued to adhere to the Randy Moss matra of "just chuck it deep dawg", instead the offensive coaches Schottenheimered the s*it out of it.  Somebody needed to remind Denny that playing not to lose is for losers.
 
2. Tell Gardy to pull Joe Nathan
Sure the guy was a fantastic pitcher, but you're going to throw him out there against the heart of the best order in baseball for a third inning in a huge postseason game?  I can remember being surprised at the time.  Then enraged, followed by disappointed, hopeful and ultimately despondent.  Throw in the Hunter home run that gave us the lead in the top of the inning, and it was one of the quickest emotional rollercoasters on record.  Ahhh, those were the days, back when postseason failures in New York had the potential to wound.
 
A couple others have to do with draft day dealings:
 
3. Tell Kevin McHale not to swap Ray Allen for Stephon Marbury
For my money, the greatest sports "what-if" in this town during my life time.  A 1-2 punch of Kevin Garnett and Allen would've created the makings for decade's worth of perennial contenders, not alienated Tom Gugliotta and completely changed the course of a historically awful franchise.  On a related note, if someone put a red button in front of me right now, and told me that if I pushed it, Stephon Marbury would drop dead, I can honestly say that I would not.  I can also honestly say that from 1999-2001, there was approximately an 80% chance that I would've pushed that button.
 
4. Tell Mike Nolan to draft Aaron Rodgers
This wouldn't have done a thing to help my team, but it would have prevented Rodgers of landing in Green Bay and becoming the phenomenal quarterback that he is.  Watching this whole thing unfold has been like a bad dream for Vikings fans, who didn't even have time to celebrate the end of the Favre Era before a new QB who might end up being even better came along.  Aaron Rodgers seems like a decent dude, I wish no particular ill on the man, but why the hell did he have to end up with the Packers?  Ghandi must've had a cheesehead, and Hitler some Helga horns, given the karma at work here.
 
And finally, the current great "what-if" on our local sports scene, appropos to the last couple nights of baseball:
 
5. Tell the Twins to take the Red Sox trade offer for Johan Santana
With the Red Sox in town this week, we've already gotten a good look at CF Jacoby Ellsbury, who's in the running for AL MVP this season.  Tonight, their elite lefty Jon Lester will take the mound, looking to finish off the series sweep.  During the Santana sweepstakes, it was widely reported that a sticking point for the Twins was the inclusion of both of these players in the Red Sox offer.  Boston, quite astutely as it turned out, would only include one, which ultimately scuttled the deal.  3 1/2 years later, offering the package of four players the Twins ultimately ended up receiving from the Mets for either one of these BoSox stars would get you laughed out of the room at best, committed at worst.  Three of the four "prospects" Minnesota received are now gone from the organization, with the fourth, Delois Guerra, not exactly knocking down the door to the majors.  Sure, Carlos Gomez had a few fun moments here, and brief flashes of potential, but ultimately the greatest benefit realize from dealing the best pitcher in the game was one season of J.J. Hardy and Jon Rauch.  Be still my heart.
 
And if all that doesn't have you significantly depressed, it's probably time to refill the prescription.

Downside risk

What the heck is going on here?  I leave the country for a few days and all hell breaks loose.

Last Wednesday I crossed the border into Canada for a few days of fishing.  At the time the Twins still had a pulse (admittedly a very faint one), the United States a AAA credit rating and the Dow was above 12,000.  Now the baseball team has had it's final coffin nail pounded, treasury bonds are about as reliable as the Seahawks QB situation and the economy is a shambles.  But hey, you still had a better weekend than Rhett Bomar.

A weekend of fishing, drinking and, most importantly card playing, reminded me once again of the power of expectations.  I've said it before, and I'll say it again, bad results can be good, and good results bad, depending on what you were expecting going in.  Many games of cribbage were played during the past few days, at $5 a pop.  For those of you unfamiliar with the scoring, a game goes to 120 points, if you fail to score 90, the amount you owe is doubled, and failing to reach 60 points means a $15 hit.  Several games started off extremely poorly, raising the spectre of doubling or tripling the amount lost.  When that occurred, I was quite happy to make a late push past 90, losing big, but still only losing the $5 minimum.  Naturally, this made me think of Tim Brewster, the all-time king of meaningless late scores to make ugly losses more palatable.

Brew was a perfect example of what happens when you serve hambugers after telling people they're going to get filet mignon  Said burgers might be tasty enough to a starving man (read: Gopher football fan), but will always end in disappointment when steak was on the menu.  As we close the book on our high-expectations squad (Twins), in favor of a couple who's bar will be decidedly lower (Vikings, Gophers), I'm reminded that it's not always bad to be bad.  Sure there are a few consistent homers out there trying to push the best case scenario, but in general things are nice and calm.  The bandwagon is emptier these days, but the company is better and you can stretch out a bit.  Teams in rebuilding mode cause you to accentuate the positive, seeing something done right is a refreshing change from the standard rule of failure.  Teams with championship aspirations draw more eyes, and the associated scrutiny, with every misstep being picked apart until you're not even sure if your good team is good anymore.

In a broader context, take the recent economy.  People get upset about the stock market dropping because it harms their wealth, and likely causes concerns about their retirement.  But if you recalibrate your expectations, and simply assume you'll be working until the day you drop dead, then a 20% drop in your 401k isn't really a big deal.  Marketing research shows that people respond more favorably to the removal of negative stimuli than they do to the introduction of a positive one.  In other words, they're more likely to buy a $90 item that you tell them will be going up $10 in the near future than a $100 item on sale for $10 off.  The price may be the same, but the expectations drive different behavior.  The expect failure, deal with success mantra can sometimes be the best way to approach life.

In other words, the Vikings are going to lose $5 this season, but maybe, if they're lucky, they can avoid dropping $10 or $15.

And with that thought, Happy Monday :)

5 Lists Of Five

Five Twins that should be dealt immediately for whatever they can get
1) Michael Cuddyer - Yes, I know it will never happen, but he has value, and could always return to finish out his career after the season.  Besides, doesn't the guy want a shot at winning?
2) Jason Kubel - Same as above, I'm not anti-Kubel, but we've got a glut of similar outfielders going here.
3) Joe Nathan - Save some cash and maybe get a prospect back, I want no part of next year's huge option.
4) Matt Capps - If anyone wants him.  Might have to just hang a "FREE" sign around his neck and have him stand along First Ave.
5) Kevin Slowey - Yes, I know his value is at an all-time low, but it seems apparent that he's never going to pitch for the Twins, so what's the alternative?

Bottom line: They'll probably do nothing and overpay Cuddyer to stay after the season.  High marks for loyalty I suppose, but seems like a dumb move from a value standpoint.  It's naive to think that you're going to turn two months of Michael Cuddyer into some kind of prospect windfall, but he's a versatille player that a lot of teams could use, and anything you get back is gravy.

Five Vikings who hopefully won't be Vikings by the end of this week
1) Bernard Berrian - The team might be between a rock and a hard place at the wide receiver position if Sidney Rice signs elsewhere, but even if that's the case, it's hard to imagine Berrian helping the situation.  One of the all-time "right place, right time" NFL signings, Berrian parlayed a lack of good options at his position into a big contract.  One of those moves that looks bad at the time, then only gets worse.  His signature play in 3 years as a Viking is probably this one, which is cringeworthy for any Purple fan.
2) Ray Edwards - Bye Ray.
3) Madieu Williams - Seems like a good guy, based on all those community awards, if only he were a good football player.
4) John Sullivan - Okay, maybe not off the roster, but at least not being counted on to handle a starting job.
5) Tavaris Jackson - Yes, there is zero chance he will still be on the roster, just had to say one last time how good it is to see him go.

Bottom line: Was very close to putting Sidney Rice on this list, given his injury history and shenanigans surrounding the delayed surgery last offseason.  The guy does have a Pro Bowl under his belt, and lack of productivity in two other seasons can mostly be attributed to bad quarterbacking.  But in the end, the guaranteed money he gets is probably going to be more than his accomplishments merit.

Five things that thankfully you won't be hearing me say this fall
1) "I managed to snag that running back from Ball St in my college football fantasy draft.  37th round, what a steal!"
2) "Monday night is synonymous with one thing, 'Dancing with the Stars' of course!
     (In case you were wondering, the answer is yes, I did have to look that up)
3) "I dunno, going drinking sounds like fun and all, but I might just sit here weeping softly and missing football."
4) "All the free time on Sundays has allowed me the time to get back to my true love, killing drifters."
5) "Well at least Green Bay won't repeat"

Bottom line: We're back baby!!!

Five guys who'd look good in purple
1) Sidney Rice, WR - Yup, I'm waffling, sue me.
2) Davin Joseph / Harvey Dahl, OG - It's time for the Vikings to get back to playing tough defense with a grind-it-out running game, and this is the first step.
3) Matt Hasselbeck, QB - Christian Ponder may one day be a solid QB in this league, but I don't think it will be this season.  Following this abbreviated offseason, a year to sit and learn may be just what the doctor ordered, throwing him out there from day one will probably result in shattered confidence at best and a shattered clavicle at worst.  Kyle Orton would be great, but he's got a big cap hit and probably isn't too interested in being a one-year fill-in.
4) Eric Weddle, S - Been awhile since we've had a competent safety around these parts.
5) Nnamdi Asomugha - Never going to happen, not a chance.  But that does not change the fact he would look very good in purple.  Unfortunately it will probably be Ravens purple.

Bottom line: Mediocre roster, not a lot of cap space, might be better served to take a step back now so we can take two forward later on.  The Vikings have become the Wild.

Five things overhead in the Twins dugout during last night's drubbing
1) "I thought Frank pitched yesterday?"
2) "On the bright side, we did help a lot of people earn free chalupas."
3) "I'd say we should make Liddle drive to dinner, but he's got that problem with stop signs."
4) "Not an itching, more of a burning really, taking that trip to the Dominican with Mijares over the All-Star break might not've been the best idea."
5) "Christ is this embarrassing."

Bottom line: It's over.

Stadium Arcadium

There are a few tiresome things that have been dragging on far too long on the regional sports scene. The Fighting Sioux nickname controversy, the general ineptitude of the Timberwolves, and topping the list, the Vikings pursuit of a stadium.

To clarify an important point, I'm not against public money for stadiums, and I consider myself a huge Vikings fan. I'm willing to bet that I've attended more games and put more time/money into this team than 90% of fans out there. I do not want them to leave Minnesota, but it's hard to have much sympathy for their situation when they keep shooting themselves in the foot.

Let's take a trip down memory lane to the Anoka County stadium days, when the team had an agreement on a $675 million facility, with $250 coming from the team. With the inevitable overruns, the true cost would likely have been in the $750-800 million range, with the Vikings share falling around $300. Of course that was scuttled when Zygi started flirting with Minneapolis about a competing plan. The county lawmakers up north decided they did not appreciate being treated as pawns, and here we are 5 years later, in the same spot. A similar joint venture with the Gophers on a shared stadium was also slapped down along the way. So as you listen to the threats, coercion and woe-is-us messages coming from the Vikings camp, it's important to remember that this could've been solved long ago.

The problem of course, is greed. The end goal of the team has always been to have it's cake and eat it too; maximize profits, team value and share nothing with anyone. Anything less than the ideal solution that will allow for that is immediately dismissed as "unworkable". Now the saga continues against the backdrop of a state budget that's underwater by $5 billion and the NFL locked in a showdown of greed that could potentially cancel it's next season. If it wasn't for bad timing, this franchise would have none at all.

But again, they've made the choice that have brought them to this point.

So now we have two stadium proposals to ponder, a far-flung palace in Arden Hills vs. a new building on the current Metrodome site in dowtown Minneapolis. Assuming we look past the fact that the Vikings don't seem to be a trustworthy partner in this type of negotiation, and that if not for their greed, this whole situation could've been avoided, what does the public gain by footing the bill for this thing? Full disclosure, I was a big proponent of the Twins stadium after watching years of baseball in the Metrodump. Baseball needs to be played outdoors, and is also the last major sport that can be attended somewhat affordably by average people. I buy the argument that sports facities don't really spur new economic activity. That dollars simply flow from other forms of entertainment to offset trips to the game. Whether you buy into that notion fully is your decision, but it tends to strike me as logical. Lacking teams, money spent on sports would likely still be spent regardless, at least that's what happens in my life.

But what else other than sports is bringing tens of thousands of people to downtown Minneapolis 100+ nights a year? What connects more suburbanites to downtown that the excursions to watch these teams play? City dwellers may say the hell with those people, let them stay home and quit cluttering up my downtown. Unfortunately that's your tax base folks, and love em or hate em, the place you live is going to come out better the next time a budget is approved if more people have a vested interest in keeping it vibrant. Target Field has been a perfect example of a sports attraction's power in this area. New businesses are opening, old ones are making additions, and all of dowtown Minneapolis has felt the lift from the 3 million wallets going through it's turnstiles. Whether the honeymoon continues, as it has with the Xcel in St. Paul, remains to be seen. But for the moment at least, there are many more people with a personal connection to the city.

The same return on investment, in the form of more people having a vested interest in your city, won't be seen by a municipality hosting a football stadium. Sure the ten Vikings games played each year will be augmented by concerts and other events, but can we expect it to yield the same sort of day-to-day lift that other sports venues offer? Some business will get a charge, especially on game days, but it's unlikely that crowds will be consistent enough to generate similar impact to the last two publicly-backed projects we've seen.

As I've said, public financing for stadiums is not an issue for me. I like sports and pay for a million government services I don't use, why not get something I enjoy out of it? But I also do not appreciate being treated like a fool, which has too often been the feeling Vikings stadium discussions have given. Maybe this time they get everything they want, and this thing finally gets put to bed. But is the best thing for the team also the best thing for the fans?

Let's break it down, tale 'o the tape style:


Location

Arden Hills
Pros: Tailgating, better gameday experience, not having to hassle with downtown
Cons: Being screwed if you don't plan on tailgating, having to spend a boatload of money on new infrastructure, chances of a serious cluster**** developing while trying to exit

Minneapolis
Pros: Central location, easy access through existing infrastructure, access to about 1,000 restaurants, public transit, revitalized downtown businesses

Listen, I like tailgating as much as the next guy, but I don't want to be locked into it every time I feel like going to a game. Build the stadium in what's essentially an open field, and that's what you'll get. Make an island and you risk getting stranded. People will try to tell you that development of bars and restaurants will occur in the surrounding area, and I'm sure they'll be right to some degree. But whatever happens will not amount to even a fraction of what's available downtown. You want an example of what happens when they build a stadium in the middle of nowhere? Take a trip to University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ. Sure they have parking lots aplenty, but on days when it's a million degrees outside and folks don't feel like getting heat stroke before the game, they flock to the adjoining restaurants...all three of them.

When I was in attendance, the available venues were packed to the gills four hours before gametime, with lines of people stretching around the block waiting to get in. Seems to me this situation is going to mirror things pretty well if the Arden Hills site is chosen, with freezing patrons simply swapped for the sweltering ones. And don't even get me started on the nightmare that is 70,000 people attempting to leave via a cheesy network of roads that can't come close to handling them. Why build some cheap imitation of an entertainment district when the real thing already exists ten miles away? Why spend the estimated quarter-billion dollars on infrastructure when the light rail we already spent the same kind of money on rolls up to the door of the competing site? We drop money hand over fist to try and make downtown more accessible, then start throwing attractions halfway to Duluth? Get a grip folks, a few thousand people cooking brats in the parking lot never won anyone anything, look big picture here.

Advantage: Minneapolis


Financing

Arden Hills
A shade over $1 billion with a team contribution of $407 million

Minneapolis
$895 million with a requested $400 million from the team, also need to factor in an estimated $40-50 million lost from having to play at a smaller venue during construction

The question of "fair share" when discussing team contributions for stadiums is a dicey one. Many folks thing the number should be 100%. As I've said, that's not my camp, but it certainly doesn't seem unreasonable to begin discussions at a 50/50 split. A $450 million price tag for Minneapolis would top what other NFL teams have paid in terms of dollars, but is also a lower percentage than some, based on the $895 million total. The Vikings were quick to respond that the requested $400 million in funding for the Minneapolis proposal would be too much, particularly when the loss from 2-3 seasons spent in a college stadium factored in.

The team did offer a contribution of $407 million as part of the Arden Hills proposal. But that looks less generous when you factor in a total price tage of over $1 billion and the revenue streams from parking, naming rights, personal seat licenses, etc. being added to the franchise coffers. Reading from yesterday's Strib article gives the impression that the total tab could run higher still, approaching the $1.3 billion range:

Hours before the Arden Hills deal was announced, Ted Mondale, the governor's chief stadium negotiator, issued a long-awaited cost comparison of the two sites that showed the Arden Hills stadium would cost up to $1.28 billion, compared to $895 million at the Metrodome. According to the analysis, the Arden Hills site would require $275 million to $340 million in highway, parking and other improvements. The Metrodome site would need $30 million for new parking spaces and skyway connections

Call me cynical, but this whole thing reminds me of the bait-and-switch tactic being employed a few months ago, when the Purple offered to fund a higher percentage of a cheaper, open-air stadium. The tactic there seemed to be along the lines of "We'll pay half, but if you want a roof on it, that's your problem." They knew full well that a roof was a must to make it a year-round venue, but it looked better on paper to offer a 50% share of something a couple hundred millions dollars cheaper. As with most things, you have to read the fine print. This variation in infrastructure costs, which the state is on the hook for, feels like more of the same.

Advantage: Minneapolis (or at least it will be when the true cost comes out)


Timing

Arden Hills
Worked with the team and county over a period of weeks to develop a plan

Minneapolis
Haphazardly threw together a proposal at the 11th hour only after Hennepin County backed out. Compounded the error by cluttering it up with Timberwolves-related nonsense that should've been addressed separately.

Advantage: Arden Hills, by a mile

So what now? Tough to say, they have two weeks to go in the legislative session, which is my opinion is not enough time to answer the outstanding questions. Furthermore, the govenor seems to be giving off signals that he favors the downtown Minneapolis plan. This whole situation give the impression that, while progress is being made, we're still a year out from a solution. I for one hope that delay results in a cohesive Minneapolis plan being offered and accepted, for the reasons detailed above.

At this point, the only thing that we know for certain is that the Vikings will go for whichever plan benefits them the most financially. I can't blame them for that, no billionaire became a billionaire by failing to take the best deal available. But from the perspective of a taxpayer, even one who can stomach the idea of funding this thing, it's time to place one hand over your wallet. Pardon me for being leery of an industry that essentially prints money, yet keeps claiming poverty.

Nevermind that professional sports franchises are never willing to produce the financial records proving the losses they claim. Or that franchises constantly seem to appreciate, with a slew of prospective buyers any time one of them goes up for sale. No, no, just take they're word for it, this is a terrible business to be in and they'll soon be forced to sell, move or liquidate...unless of course you can spare a dime brother. To the city of Minneapolis and state of Minnesota, please don't blink here. Stick to your guns, as we learned with the Twins, it's amazing what suddenly becomes palatable when it becomes clear there are no other options.



Otherwise, if a compromise needs to be made, tie a back-end payment into the sale of the team if it occurs within 10 years. Zygi reportedly bought this pig for $600 million, and Forbes had it valued around $800 million in 2010. I'm no expert, but I'm guessing a new facility kicks that valuation up to at least $1 billion, if not higher. Factor in the operation revenue to be gained in the interim and for the first 10 years, anything north of that mark goes back to the state coffers.

So those are my stadium thoughts, sorry for the length, but it's the last I'll be writing about it until something actually gets signed, sealed and delivered. No telling when that will be. A lot of people may take issue with my views, saying that they're unrealistic, and this is the price of admission for being an NFL town, but I really don't care. As much as I love the Vikings, I can live without them more easily than just about any other team in town (save for the Wolves). In my opinion, the NFL has completely sold out it's in-person experience for the sake of TV audiences, and watching 5 games at once from the comfort of a couch or barstool bypassed the hassle of attending in person long ago. What's more, I've grown tired of the antics from both the league and this team. Both have grown like an invasive weed, to the point of choking out all other life on the sports landscape. Their arrogance offends me, and I would love for Minnesota to be the first market to say "Thanks, but no thanks" when the stadium gun is put to their head. Alas, I'm convinced there is no possible way that happens, but a guy can dream.

Worst case scenario, they move them to LA, big whoop. This might lose me my fan card, but I think that's been a hollow threat all along. It's doubtful that the people who want to build the LA stadium won't want a controlling interest in the team that plays there, and I don't see Zygi moving it just to cede control. But it's out there, so needs to be noted. If it happens, I'll get along like millions of other fans across the country, rooting for an out-of-market team the same way I typically do now, on TV. While my sympathies would lay with those dedicated souls who consider being in the stands on Sunday a staple of life, they'd have to understand that the team and league did it to themselves. Besides, nothing is easier than being a long-distance fan in the age of the Internet and satellite television, you guys will be okay. And hey, you never know, maybe we'll get an expansion team that's not a cursed pack of losers.

Like I said fellow Purple faithful, if getting fed up at this episode of team history is grounds for kicking me off the bandwagon, so be it. My first choice is for a workable deal to be struck, but if the Vikings keep angling for more and more, as has been their m.o. in the past, I have no problem walking away. Rest assured that there will always be that portion of me that only stirs while watching the Vikes play, it's too ingrained to ever leave, but this whole thing makes me feel as if I'm being treated like an idiot. Maybe things would be different if they're wasn't a petty labor squabble going on at the moment, I'm not sure. It's just that every time I turn around it seems like sports is eating another part of itself. The ticket prices keep going up, while the talent pools just grow more deluded and players more detached. It's hard not to feel stupid for caring about it at times.

Of course, my original offer to the Vikings still stands: Win a Super Bowl and we'll pay every dime.

I'm not holding my breath.

Pondering what just happened

Did the Vikings really just take Christian Ponder at #12?

Did that really just happen?

Yesterday was supposed to be a good day.  I had Twins tickets for the noon game, and the NFL Draft to watch in the evening.  Unfortunately, a day that was supposed to be all about hope for the future offered none, with the Twins getting crushed and the Vikings pulling off the rare feat of uniting their fanbase in opposition of their pick. 

Now I know that every rube fan out there suddenly transforms themself into a draft expert one day a year, and half eventually turn out to be wrong, regardless of the argument.  We all get to weigh in with our two cents, and the resulting debates are part of what makes being a sports fan interesting.  The draft is perfect fodder for throwing out over-the-top proclamations about who ends up a star or bust.  These things are never settled until years down the road, and by that point it's tough to remember who was saying what about a guy when he was picked.  I've been on the right side of a few of these conversations, and the wrong side of an equal amount.  What strikes me most about the Ponder selection is the total lack of support, at least among the fans I know.  In my opinion, this guy should've been picked significantly lower, perhaps even in the 2nd Round.  I'd feel a lot better about things if more people were saying I was nuts.

Obviously any Vikings fan hopes that Christian Ponder turns out to be an excellent NFL QB.  No criticism of the selection should be misconstrued as hoping the guy fails.  And if you feel like brightsiding this whole situation, there are some things you can grab on to.  For my part, I will say that Ponder is exactly the type of quarterback I like.  A pocket passer with good size and enough mobility to be elusive, but not so much that he was able to use it as a crutch to avoid learning how to throw.  Also working in his favor is the fact that he played in a pro style offense, removing the concerns that come with evaluating how a spread QB will translate into the pros.  By all accounts he's extremely intelligent, good leader, plays through pain, many good things have been said.

Unfortunately, for all of those traits, there are also quite a few glaring negatives, starting with a history of injuries.  Now the injury thing is notoriously tough to peg, in recent history we've seen a couple Vikings draft picks who've arrived with the "injury-prone" tag.  One proved it false in resounding fashion (Adrian Peterson), the other has made it appear quite warranted thus far (Chris Cook), although sufficient time hasn't passed to pass full judgement.  What I think we can agree on is that the thought of the Vikings offensive line trying to keep a fragile QB healthy is not very reassuring.

Negative point #2 is the fact that when Ponder did play in college, he didn't exactly blow people away.  There were some nice wins and gaudy stat lines peppered in, but in general, he was just north of average.  His signature performance in 2010 would have to be throwing for 264 yards and 3 TDs in a 37-35 loss versus North Carolina.  The point has been brought up that the Tarheel defense included a lot of NFL-caliber talent.  Problem there is, the defensive end who went 14th overall yesterday was suspended for that game, as were several other players.  If we want to take positive omens from college performances, then you also need to factor in the 11-of-28, 2 INT turd that Ponder laid on the road against Oklahoma, a team that probably best approximates the defenses he'll be facing at the next level.  Neither game tells the whole story, but you can't cherry-pick the one that backs up your opinion.  The biggest thing for me was watching the draft with a Florida St. fan last night who had seen just about every game Ponder played the last few years.  He was a fan of the guy, thought he might amount to something, but was still shocked to see him go where he went.  Not what you want to hear from a confirmed Ponder supporter. 

It's not killing me to have Christian Ponder as the Vikings QB of the future, and I think most fans would agree.  What is killing me is where he was selected, and the future implications that it carries.  By using a high first round pick on a quarterback, the Vikings have essentially locked themselves into starting the season with him under center.  There's is no way they can justify making a trade for a veteran at this point, given what they've already invested in the position and their needs in other areas.  While everyone seems to agree that it was early, the justification that's been offered by a few writers is that they had to pick a QB, because they had no other options.  I have a problem with this line of reasoning, because although nobody wants to go to war with Joe Webb and Rhett Bomar at the top of the depth chart, thinking "we have to draft X regardless, because we have no one at the spot" is exactly what led to Troy Williamson at #7.  There are guys who were discussed as being on par with Ponder that are still on the board, it's tough to believe there wasn't a middle ground here.

Finally, the optics on this thing are just terrible.  Maybe Ponder is truly the guy the Vikings brain trust coveted, but it looks a bit like a panic move.  Scoff if you want, but after watching 3 QBs go in a 5-pick span, I was reminded of a fantasy football adage: "Start the runs, don't finish them."  Of course I realize that this is far from fantasy, but something in that notion still applies.  They saw the guys they wanted go off the board, then grabbed the next guy left in the QB column.  I'm guessing that there were 5-6 other players ahead of Ponder in the Best Available section.  Watching those guys roll of the board, Fairley to the Lions in particular, and no QBs get drafted the rest of the round, poured some salt in the wound.

So what are we left with?  A new face of the team to pin our hopes to, and a whole lot of bad puns.  My calls around the country to other disgruntled Vikings fans last night at least yield a few moments of levity.  As the title of this post suggests, there's a lot to Ponder here.  Will the combination of our pourous O-line and Detroit's impressive new defensive front result in another Christian being thrown to the Lions?  Or will this Christian be successful in his mission to be the savior of our franchise?  Only time will tell, but the chips have been pushed all in, that's for sure.

Odd thing is, the most unsettling thought coming out of this whole things was supplied courtesy of my brother, who mentioned that the last time a team in this town drafted a guy named Christian, the results were less than stellar.  This threw my mind down the path of parallels linking the two of them beyond the name.  One was the 3rd overall pick, the other the 3rd QB picked in quick succession.  Both were regarded as a being a few notches below the guys that preceeded them.  If things hold up, that means Locker is Shaq, Gabbert is Mourning, and Christian...well he's Christian.  Different sport, 20 years ago, remains unsettling.

I wanted the second coming of Prince, because the first one rocked.  Instead we got Christian Part II, let's pray it isn't a sequel.

Ho Ho...Hold on Here

Many happy returns of the holiday season to you and yours, hope everyone had an excellent holiday and got just what they were.  I myself did not find a franchise quarterback under the tree, but hopefully that's just because he was stuck in Philadelphia, guess time will have to tell on that one.

There I go again, discussing that team who is supposed to be avoided, but they just won't let me off the hook.  Now there's another postponement prolonging this season of weird, making the Vikings the first team ever to play on Thursday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday in the same season.  Pity they didn't have a Saturday game squeezed in there to complete this bizarre calendar sweep.  So rather than falling among the din of the NFL weekend, another meaningless game lost in the shuffle, tonight's game gets the full "nothing else is going on treatment" from the local and national media.

The problem is there's a lot going on tonight, with the Gophers tipping off the Big Ten basketball season against the hated Wisconsin Badgers and Team USA facing Slovakia in the World Juniors.  Now instead of being able to enjoy these two meaningful tilts in peace, I'm going to be buried in an avalanche of Viking fans, who are apparently unaware the clock on this season struck midnight some time ago.  Look, I'm all for sticking with your team when you're trying to draw inspiration for next year, but half the players and the coach will likely be different when next year rolls around, if it even happens at all.  Meanwhile some oblivious bartender is going to come bumbling along changing the station with the Gophers up one and five minutes left to play.  And then we'll all have to let loose an irritated "WHOA!" to make her realize her mistake and rectify the situation.  Point being, I love the NFL as much as (probably more than) the next guy, but get some perspective.

Of course, speaking of perspective, it's always important to remember that things could be worse.  For today's example, we look no further than Loserville's favorite guest poster/Gopher football superfan, my friend Derek.  Because today is the day, after fathering two great kids, that Derek will be going under the knife for the operation that makes any man wince uncomfortably.  I have two vasectomy vignettes (killer alliteration there) to offer, the first in the form of one of my favorite jokes:

What's the definition of tough?  Jogging home from your own vasectomy.  If' you're going for the pun in this case, change "tough" to "ballsy".  Seemed a little much here.

The second is the story of the time a few years back that I thought I was watching a knee surgery on some random channel.  Having had a couple of knee surgeries, I found this interesting and paused to watch for a moment.  It was rather perplexing that they appeared to be cutting a ligament, rather than reattaching it.  As the camera panned back, I understood what I was seeing...and was not pleased.

Anyway Big D, here's hoping that the Gopher hoops team doesn't add any more pain to your day.

Beyond BizzaroDome

A nice bit of novelty in the form of an outdoor professional football game came to Minneapolis last night.  It was a spectacle, and that spectacle was pretty darn cool.  From the fans tossing snow in the air to the wisps of smoke rising from player's helmets, everything about it was about 70% more entertaining than a similarly meaningless game played in the plastic atmosphere of the Dome would've been.  Much like the Twins move to Target Field, it made me think that I could get back into attending Vikings games if they held them outdoors.

Why didn't I go?  Got scared off by the idea of getting turned away at the gate because there would be too many fans attending.  Turned out not to be the case, and things actually seemed much smoother than I'd anticipated; all in all, I regret missing it.  Then again, considering the parking situation and the fact I was battling yet another 4 inches of white plauge during yesterday's rush hour, my arrival likely would've been just in time to catch the Gophers kicking off spring practice.  The good news is, I now have new-found hope that a stadium deal will get done.  That way the Vikes can play outside for a couple of years, I can get some reasonable tickets for bad weather games, then go back to watching from the couch when they move into their new palace, price out the average fan by jacking up tickets to nosebleed levels and end up with the ensuing soul-dead corporate crowd.  Lot of cold-weather cities are building outdoor stadiums, but we'll get a roof, and it will suck, life goes on.

Speaking of life going on, let's click the count down by one on the "Brett Favre's No Longer A Viking-O-Meter".  I'm now back to the place I spent all but about 16 months of my life: Damn I hate that guy.  From his injury BS to the constant fawning, it makes every game a drag now.  And yes, I know I'm a fraud for throwing him support last year, have admitted it many times.  Tell me you wouldn't have done the same and you're a liar.  The tragedy of all this is that I never thought to make "Brett Favre Bingo", including such phrases as: "He's like a kid out there", "You have to admire the toughness of a Brett Favre", "Consecutive games streak", "Gunslinger" and so on.  Two games left Bert, happy trails.

Every week I say I'm moving on, and I do...then something happens.  I mean has a team ever had a more interesting time playing out the string than this one?  But barring the team plane being hijacked or Brett Favre exposing himself during a drunken press conference, I don't see much happening Vikings-wise that will require our attention prior to draft chatter heating up in March.  Check back then.

In the meantime, there are some very intriguing things on the horizon in the coming week, including the kickoff of the World Junior hockey championships this Sunday and the opening of the Gopher's Big Ten basketball slate a week from today against the hated Badgers.  Of course the two weeks left of football season are nothing to sneeze at, plenty of intrigue to be settled, but it won't offer much help in relieving your weeknight boredom.  Steelers-Panthers on Thursday and Cowboys-Cardinals Saturday, be still my heart.

All I want for Christmas is a bona fide franchise QB, the kind it looked like Daunte Culpepper would pan out to be circa 2004. Unfortunately that won't be addressed until closer to April Fool's (fittingly) than Christmas, so let's put this thing to rest, and try to focus on forgetting how bad Joe Webb looked last night.  We're goingt to need something to talk ourselves into come July.