Well, it’s that time of year again, time to put down some predictions on paper for how the Twins season will unfold. As I wrote last month, there’s really not much expected out of this year’s edition, given the presence of an imposing Tigers team and several pitchers who are about as exciting as frozen waffles. Plain, no syrup.
But these are the Twins, and it must be said that they have on occasional beaten expectations quite significantly. Unlike the other teams in town, who always seem to barely meet them or fall woefully short. It’s true that last year’s 99-loss version was a bit of a debacle, but these are the worst-to-first Twins we’re talking about here, and anything is possible when they take the field. (Theoretically at least, from a gambling standpoint, it’s best to stick with the assumption that they’ll suck. Hope costs nothing, just don’t use it as the basis for wagering.)
As we kick off this season, with the moderate hope of a return to respectability, can we find some things to get fired up about? Some kind of positivity to cling to? Sure we can, and it starts with quite a few guys who have proven track records of success…albeit none of it coming very recently. The other day, I was mocked by some friends after insinuating there were some reasons for optimism surrounding this club. They’ve apparently branded me as incapable of positivity when it comes to the local sports teams, a charge I resent deeply and feel is entirely undeserved.
After all, who could possibly be more capable of positivity than a guy who’s been repeatedly kicked in his figurative seeds by the teams he loves, yet keeps coming back? By definition you need some deep well of inner sanguinity (some may say delusion) just to keep picking yourself up off the mat and talking yourself into the possibility of success year after year. Sure, I may turn on teams viciously once they fall short of my expectations, but that’s only because it stings so deeply to see something you’ve poured your heart into end up being such a colossal disappointment. I’d assume it’s a lot like raising children in that regard.
But now is not the time to dwell on the failures of yesteryear, in fact it’s not even the time to dwell on the failures of yestermonth or yesterweek. In Loserville, we keep plowing ahead. Once you’ve walked this far into the desert, there’s no turning back, you just have to keep hoping the salvation lies over the next dune! Or maybe the next couple of dunes in this case, it’s gotta be out there someplace, just keep walking, trust me.
With that, the Over/Unders for your 2012 Minnesota Twins:
Wins – 81 (Over)
Starting with the big one first, and I have them at just over, with a 83-79 finish. Suppose that’s optimism, but doesn’t really feel like it. On the other hand, calling the playoffs definitely feels like delusion, so I suppose it qualifies. Vegas currently has the team at 73 ½ wins for their over/under, so perhaps this is a case where optimism could be profitable. Then again, getting back to the multitude of ‘Ifs’ plaguing this roster, the wager certainly wouldn’t be sizeable.
Joe Mauer plate appearances – 550 (Over)
Joe Mauer batting average – .325 (Over)
Joe Mauer home runs – 12 (Push)
I’m all in on a Joe Mauer resurgence, as you kind of have to be if you’re thinking this will be an above-.500 ballclub. For context, his last 5 years of plate appearances have been 471, 633, 606, 584 and 333; it appears that 130 games is the magic number, and the Twins will need at least that out of him to be decent. Mauer has also hit over .325 in 4 of the last 6 seasons, so that seems like a lock if he’s healthy. The home runs probably will never come in Target Field, but that’s okay when you consider….
Times Scott Baker and Matt Capps will make me want to pour gasoline over something and light it on fire – 25 1/2 (Over)
Went with the symbolic imagery there, intended to invoke what they do to the team’s chances of winning on a regular basis. Ironically, this one might finish under due to the fact that they’re both performing so poorly, the opportunities for disappointment might not be there. Baker is nursing a sore elbow and Capps is nursing the fact that he’s Matt Capps. Could be that one never pitches and the other pitches his way out of the closer’s role quickly. Also ironic (or is it tragic?), both of these guys are on my fantasy baseball team, not sure how that happened.
Games attended, pre All-Star break: 5 (Over)
Games attended, post All-Star break/free tickets: 3 (Over)
Games attended, post All-Star break/paid tickets: 1 (Under)
I believe this one explains itself. Random tickets should be blowing down First Avenue by September, just snatch one off the ground and head into the park.
Justin Morneau plate appearances – 500 (Over)
Justin Morneaue batting average – .300 (Over)
Justin Morneau home runs – 25 (Over)
Again, do you see how optimistic I can be? Or maybe this is just hope overruling sense, but I don’t care. Please let the old Morneau be back, please, please, please, please, please…
Carl Pavano ERA – 4.00 (Over)
Straight ball, they hit it very much. If it’s under 3.00, I’ll buy you an SUV.
Frank Liriano Wins – 13 (Hmm…contract year says yes…history as a head case says no…screw it, Over)
But just barely, something like 14-9 sounds right, followed by him getting grossly overpaid, lazing around all winter and coming into spring training with his new team throwing 83 MPH fastballs. Gotta love those rites of spring.
Phantom Scott Baker injuries – 5 (Over)
Kind of cheating here, we’re already at 1.
Times Twins fans bitch about Delmon Young being lost for nothing, despite totally loathing him almost the entire time he was here – 1 million (Over)
Way, way over. Although they won't miss the old horse-on-rollerskates act he employed in playing the outfield. Sadly, there are no videos of Delmon fielding on YouTube (incidentally, top 2 results are "DY throws bat at umpire" and "DY kicks catcher"), so you need to just cherish the memories. If any such video does exist, I demand that someone put it to this music immediately. Then I can watch it, and laugh uproariously.
Times I exclaim angrily "Why is it we're the one team in baseball that can't develop a single decent middle infielder?" - 50 (Over)
38-year old guy (refusing to learn his name, since he probably won't be here next season) is a -125 favorite to be better than Adam Everett. And that ain't sayin much.
Alex Burnett appearances required before the Twins decided a "Alex Burnett Batting Helmet Night" promo is wise to protect fans in the outfield - 10 (Under)
Time to try out some slogans...
Alex Burnett: What happens when "Hard thrower" and "Pitches to contact collide"
Alex Burnett: He was good for awhile that one month that one season
Alex Burnett: It was either him or Ron Mahay
Alex Burnett: Incoming!
Think it's safe to say that what the pitching staff lacks in talent, it makes up for in scapegoat potential.
Trips to Target Field it will take to remember why not of this stuff really bothers me: 1 (Push)
Happy Baseball Season folks.
Showing posts with label Twins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Twins. Show all posts
Friday, April 6, 2012
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
2012 State of the Ville: The Minnesota Twins
A lot of how we view things in life hinges on what our expectations were going in. For instance, I might be the only person on Earth who thought The Hangover was lame. It generally seemed to meander from one stupid joke to the next, with no real plot, consistency or cleverness. A random slew of occurrences tacked on one after another, each dumber than the last. This isn’t pulling the highbrow routine either, you’re talking to a guy who’d rank Spaceballs among the more humorous films of all time. If you happen to disagree with that opinion, all I can say is “What’s a matter Colonel Sanders, chicken?” Sometimes a bit of cleverness can go a long way.
On the other side of the coin in this discussion is Zombieland, a movie I’ve watched at least a few minutes of somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 times over the past couple years. I knew nothing about this film going in, believe it started as 15 minutes of throwaway TV late one Friday night. Instead, it only took 15 minutes to decide it was going to the DVR (right about this scene), and it’s been safely there ever since.
But does either movie truly deserve those extremes? Is one truly a waste of 90 minutes, while the other is worth pausing on each and every time it’s scrolled past? Probably not, but that’s the roles they occupy for me. Taste accounts for some of that, things will always strike people differently, but the bigger issue has always seemed to be expectations going in. If ten people even insinuate that something should be in the “best of all time” conversation in a given category, it had better be amazing as a prerequisite, or it’ll be torn apart.
If, on the other hand, you expect nothing, simply feeling like your time hasn’t been wasted is all you need. Not to mention, if you’re like me and have a neurotic streak, the effect here can be powerful enough to make you avoid certain popular things entirely, if too much has already been said. (Yes, I’m talking to you Moneyball, got all I needed from the book and the movie screwing up the ending to the Twins-As ALDS game would be too much to take, already know that going in.)
So be careful with your hype, judicious in doling out praise and damn near unwilling to utter the phrase “best ever” in regard to what you see and do in life. I’d rather hear a spoiler, than be lured into a subpar dining/watching/reading experience under false pretense. At least the spoiler hasn’t robbed me of my time. Personally, the only thing I feel comfortable in tagging with the “best” label these days is the Best Sports Weekend Of the Year, but we’ll be discussing that in greater depth shortly. If you doubt me, come to St. Paul next weekend and I’ll prove it.
All this expectations talk is currently front of mind because I watched a ballgame a couple nights. Not just any ballgame, but my first Minnesota Twins game of the spring. It was poorly played, some players looked out of sorts, there was just a general “WTF?” air to the whole thing. But it did nothing to dampen my enthusiasm about the impending start of baseball season, for three reasons:
Going to ballgames is fun.
Things have gotta be better than last year.
I’m just not expecting very much.
There’s no accompanying detailed breakdown to back up the feeling that we’re dealing with a fair-to-middling ballclub this year, just the recent body of work of the guys on the roster. Some statgeek could probably craft a plausible argument for the potential of a Twins playoff berth, but take it from me, it’s just not going to happen. By the way, I do not use the term “geek” in a derogatory fashion, as I’m no stranger to getting my geek on when the opportunity arises. For years I thought I was a nerd, but as this handy Venn diagram points out only falling into geek territory, as the requisite social awkwardness isn’t present. Well, at least not unless there are girls around. Good news finding that out, the family might finally invite me back to Thanksgiving dinner now that I've shed that stigma.
So I'm good with the geek community, and love a lot of the work they've done with the numbers. Some of it is a little out there, but in a year featuring Tim Tebow, Jeremy Lin and a Super Bowl champion who lost two games to the Redskins, should we really be counting anything out? The answer, in the case of the Twins, is yes, and there's only one number you need to know: Three.
As in the Theory Of the Three "Ifs", something I just made up, but seems perfectly plausible after 10 minutes of noodling it over. It's a simple premise, when you find yourself trying to convince your own brain that something is going to work out, make sure you don't have more than three contingencies that need to be met in order for that to happen. I don't care if we're talking about being on time for a flight ("If I can get out of the office 30 minutes early"/"If traffic isn't too bad"/"If the security line is moving") or getting away with killing a drifter ("If I wasn't caught on the security cameras at that gas station"/"If there are no traces of DNA in the car"/"If I can burn these bloody clothes without the neighbors noticing") the Three "If" tipping point is not something you want to mess with. We're not talking in absolutes here, any theory that doesn't have to do with physics has exceptions, just general trends of probability to serve as signposts on our way.
Take the question of, "Can the Wild make the playoffs?" we asked a few months ago. While trying to delude ourselves into thinking it was possible, we went down a path that sounded something like:
"If we can get lights out goaltending"
"If Heatley can get back to being an elite scorer"
"If Koivu can make the leap to a 30-goal guy"
"If Bouchard and Latandresse can stay healthy"
"If the young defenseman can develop"
That's five already and we're barely past the first line. All those "Ifs" are what had most of the world thinking a 10-12th place finish was in store. Sure they shined us on for a few months, looking like they'd pull it off, but that's the thing about the "Ifs" over the course of a long season. They're hard to sustain, and the chances of failure increase exponential with each one you add.
Where the wiggle room comes in on Three "If" Theory is the statments you're making. Crazy and unexpected things happen in life, but at some point the question becomes how crazy is too crazy? Say my statment about Heatley's season had been "If Dany Heatley scores 100 goals this season"? Well then you're probably good with that "If" alone, maybe one more, and it's time to start printing postseason tickets...but you're also delusional. "If I lost 20 pounds" and "If I won the Powerball" could be the criteria for my getting a date with Kate Upton, but that's a requirement that's nigh impossible (by that I mean the 20 pounds, it is March after all).
Point being, unreasonable "Ifs" are like cheating at golf, you can do it, but you're only fooling yourself. You'll look ridiculous telling people you're a scratch golfer, then duffing one off the first tee, but no more that you would by uttering the phrase "If Ponder can just throw 40 TDs, the Vikes will be in the playoffs". No sh*t Sherlock.
There are however, many borderline situations that deserves scrutiny in this regard. Consider this season's Timberwolves team, and these Three "Ifs" about contending for the playoffs:
"If Ricky Rubio lives up to the hype."
"If Kevin Love takes the next step from All-Star to superstar."
"If Rick Adelman does an amazing coaching job."
Borderline plausible, but kind of getting out there on the edge, right? I admit to being more negative than most, but assuming Love would be the best power forward in the game, Rubio would turn in a season of Top 10 PG play and Adelman would be in the coach of the year conversation? That's not quite delusional homerism, but it is homerism writ large. Change the question to making the playoffs and all of the sudden you're tossing "If Nikola Pekovic is a good NBA center" into the mix, and you've found a big time exception to the theory. But as I said, these are just tea leaves, not absolutes.
In roundabout fashion, we return to where this whole post was supposed to be going, the Twins, and their laundry list of "Ifs". By my count, the tally so far:
"If Mauer and Morneau can stay healthy and productive" (Being charitable by lumping those into one)
"If Pavano and Liriano can regain their 2010 form" (Ditto)
"If Scott Baker can put together a full season of what we've only seen from him a few months at a time"
"If Nick Blackburn can resemble a capable major league pitcher on a regular basis"
"If Denard Span's concussions and Ben Revere's arm don't derail our hopes for capable outfield play"
"If the 38-year old/Japanese free agent bust/perennially-hyped underachiever can offer something at short"
"If whoever these guys in the bullpen are can find a way to get the job done"
"If Matt Capps doesn't make me feel homocidal 2-3 times a week"
"If the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers and Angels all don't win 95-100 games"
Now that, my friends, is far too many "Ifs" to offer much in the way of hope.
But you know what? It doesn't really matter. Sure we'd all like to see a winner, and the Twins have pulled rabbits out of the hat before (albeit against weaker division opponents), but even if they don't make the playoffs, are we really that bad off?
I know that I'm not supposed to admit this, and perhaps it makes me a poor fan, but I'd rather watch a bad Twins team play at Target Field than a good one at the Metrodome. Having a winning team to boot would be the best of both worlds, but at least if they're lousy, it won't be too tough to deal.
A day at the ballpark is once again fun around these parts and, at the risk of sounding like a Cubs fan, I'm going to enjoy mine win or lose. But if it's not too much to ask, staying about .500 through the end of July would be appreciated. Like I said, expectations.
The 2012 Minnesota Twins: Expect Mediocrity, Deal With Success!
If they want to use that slogan, I won't even charge them.
On the other side of the coin in this discussion is Zombieland, a movie I’ve watched at least a few minutes of somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 times over the past couple years. I knew nothing about this film going in, believe it started as 15 minutes of throwaway TV late one Friday night. Instead, it only took 15 minutes to decide it was going to the DVR (right about this scene), and it’s been safely there ever since.
But does either movie truly deserve those extremes? Is one truly a waste of 90 minutes, while the other is worth pausing on each and every time it’s scrolled past? Probably not, but that’s the roles they occupy for me. Taste accounts for some of that, things will always strike people differently, but the bigger issue has always seemed to be expectations going in. If ten people even insinuate that something should be in the “best of all time” conversation in a given category, it had better be amazing as a prerequisite, or it’ll be torn apart.
If, on the other hand, you expect nothing, simply feeling like your time hasn’t been wasted is all you need. Not to mention, if you’re like me and have a neurotic streak, the effect here can be powerful enough to make you avoid certain popular things entirely, if too much has already been said. (Yes, I’m talking to you Moneyball, got all I needed from the book and the movie screwing up the ending to the Twins-As ALDS game would be too much to take, already know that going in.)
So be careful with your hype, judicious in doling out praise and damn near unwilling to utter the phrase “best ever” in regard to what you see and do in life. I’d rather hear a spoiler, than be lured into a subpar dining/watching/reading experience under false pretense. At least the spoiler hasn’t robbed me of my time. Personally, the only thing I feel comfortable in tagging with the “best” label these days is the Best Sports Weekend Of the Year, but we’ll be discussing that in greater depth shortly. If you doubt me, come to St. Paul next weekend and I’ll prove it.
All this expectations talk is currently front of mind because I watched a ballgame a couple nights. Not just any ballgame, but my first Minnesota Twins game of the spring. It was poorly played, some players looked out of sorts, there was just a general “WTF?” air to the whole thing. But it did nothing to dampen my enthusiasm about the impending start of baseball season, for three reasons:
Going to ballgames is fun.
Things have gotta be better than last year.
I’m just not expecting very much.
There’s no accompanying detailed breakdown to back up the feeling that we’re dealing with a fair-to-middling ballclub this year, just the recent body of work of the guys on the roster. Some statgeek could probably craft a plausible argument for the potential of a Twins playoff berth, but take it from me, it’s just not going to happen. By the way, I do not use the term “geek” in a derogatory fashion, as I’m no stranger to getting my geek on when the opportunity arises. For years I thought I was a nerd, but as this handy Venn diagram points out only falling into geek territory, as the requisite social awkwardness isn’t present. Well, at least not unless there are girls around. Good news finding that out, the family might finally invite me back to Thanksgiving dinner now that I've shed that stigma.
So I'm good with the geek community, and love a lot of the work they've done with the numbers. Some of it is a little out there, but in a year featuring Tim Tebow, Jeremy Lin and a Super Bowl champion who lost two games to the Redskins, should we really be counting anything out? The answer, in the case of the Twins, is yes, and there's only one number you need to know: Three.
As in the Theory Of the Three "Ifs", something I just made up, but seems perfectly plausible after 10 minutes of noodling it over. It's a simple premise, when you find yourself trying to convince your own brain that something is going to work out, make sure you don't have more than three contingencies that need to be met in order for that to happen. I don't care if we're talking about being on time for a flight ("If I can get out of the office 30 minutes early"/"If traffic isn't too bad"/"If the security line is moving") or getting away with killing a drifter ("If I wasn't caught on the security cameras at that gas station"/"If there are no traces of DNA in the car"/"If I can burn these bloody clothes without the neighbors noticing") the Three "If" tipping point is not something you want to mess with. We're not talking in absolutes here, any theory that doesn't have to do with physics has exceptions, just general trends of probability to serve as signposts on our way.
Take the question of, "Can the Wild make the playoffs?" we asked a few months ago. While trying to delude ourselves into thinking it was possible, we went down a path that sounded something like:
"If we can get lights out goaltending"
"If Heatley can get back to being an elite scorer"
"If Koivu can make the leap to a 30-goal guy"
"If Bouchard and Latandresse can stay healthy"
"If the young defenseman can develop"
That's five already and we're barely past the first line. All those "Ifs" are what had most of the world thinking a 10-12th place finish was in store. Sure they shined us on for a few months, looking like they'd pull it off, but that's the thing about the "Ifs" over the course of a long season. They're hard to sustain, and the chances of failure increase exponential with each one you add.
Where the wiggle room comes in on Three "If" Theory is the statments you're making. Crazy and unexpected things happen in life, but at some point the question becomes how crazy is too crazy? Say my statment about Heatley's season had been "If Dany Heatley scores 100 goals this season"? Well then you're probably good with that "If" alone, maybe one more, and it's time to start printing postseason tickets...but you're also delusional. "If I lost 20 pounds" and "If I won the Powerball" could be the criteria for my getting a date with Kate Upton, but that's a requirement that's nigh impossible (by that I mean the 20 pounds, it is March after all).
Point being, unreasonable "Ifs" are like cheating at golf, you can do it, but you're only fooling yourself. You'll look ridiculous telling people you're a scratch golfer, then duffing one off the first tee, but no more that you would by uttering the phrase "If Ponder can just throw 40 TDs, the Vikes will be in the playoffs". No sh*t Sherlock.
There are however, many borderline situations that deserves scrutiny in this regard. Consider this season's Timberwolves team, and these Three "Ifs" about contending for the playoffs:
"If Ricky Rubio lives up to the hype."
"If Kevin Love takes the next step from All-Star to superstar."
"If Rick Adelman does an amazing coaching job."
Borderline plausible, but kind of getting out there on the edge, right? I admit to being more negative than most, but assuming Love would be the best power forward in the game, Rubio would turn in a season of Top 10 PG play and Adelman would be in the coach of the year conversation? That's not quite delusional homerism, but it is homerism writ large. Change the question to making the playoffs and all of the sudden you're tossing "If Nikola Pekovic is a good NBA center" into the mix, and you've found a big time exception to the theory. But as I said, these are just tea leaves, not absolutes.
In roundabout fashion, we return to where this whole post was supposed to be going, the Twins, and their laundry list of "Ifs". By my count, the tally so far:
"If Mauer and Morneau can stay healthy and productive" (Being charitable by lumping those into one)
"If Pavano and Liriano can regain their 2010 form" (Ditto)
"If Scott Baker can put together a full season of what we've only seen from him a few months at a time"
"If Nick Blackburn can resemble a capable major league pitcher on a regular basis"
"If Denard Span's concussions and Ben Revere's arm don't derail our hopes for capable outfield play"
"If the 38-year old/Japanese free agent bust/perennially-hyped underachiever can offer something at short"
"If whoever these guys in the bullpen are can find a way to get the job done"
"If Matt Capps doesn't make me feel homocidal 2-3 times a week"
"If the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers and Angels all don't win 95-100 games"
Now that, my friends, is far too many "Ifs" to offer much in the way of hope.
But you know what? It doesn't really matter. Sure we'd all like to see a winner, and the Twins have pulled rabbits out of the hat before (albeit against weaker division opponents), but even if they don't make the playoffs, are we really that bad off?
I know that I'm not supposed to admit this, and perhaps it makes me a poor fan, but I'd rather watch a bad Twins team play at Target Field than a good one at the Metrodome. Having a winning team to boot would be the best of both worlds, but at least if they're lousy, it won't be too tough to deal.
A day at the ballpark is once again fun around these parts and, at the risk of sounding like a Cubs fan, I'm going to enjoy mine win or lose. But if it's not too much to ask, staying about .500 through the end of July would be appreciated. Like I said, expectations.
The 2012 Minnesota Twins: Expect Mediocrity, Deal With Success!
If they want to use that slogan, I won't even charge them.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
All the negativity in this town sucks
It's come to my attention recently that some people feel most of what I write is overly negative. There's even been concern expressed over my mental well-being. To take the second point first, let me assure you that I am fine, and not suffering any ill effects from the constant stream of bad news that has been the last year of Minnesota sports. After so many letdowns, only great disappointment has the power to wound, and in order to be greatly disappointed, you must first have some kind of expectations. Save for the Fighting Sioux hockey team, there hasn't been much in the way of expectations during the last cycle of the calendar. Falls don't hurt so bad when you've only climbed to the first rung of the ladder, the current situation is rolling over me like water off a duck's back.
As to the first point, the blog is called Loserville for a reason, and man has this town been living up to that moniker lately. Although I trend negative due to years of experience, there have been nuggets of optimism sprinkled through these posts. Sure the doldrums of summer tend to get me down, but the last post was packed with upcoming highlights of the fall season, what could be more optimistic than that? I picked the Twins to win the division and Gopher football team to win 7 games last year, that's looks like optimism bordering on delusion at this point.
But being that we're on the cusp of a new season, it's probably a good time to pump things up and get excited about the prospects of the various local teams. There will be plenty of time to lament failure later on. If sports had it's own calendar, then August 31st would be New Year's Eve; tomorrow September starts, and with it comes fresh versions of football, hockey and basketball teams at all levels. Baseball has it's own weird calendar that doesn't really fit, like it's run by the Mayans or something, but for the rest of the world, the slate has been wiped clean, and it's time to get rolling.
So now, I will attempt my most difficult feat. In a town where all four professional teams have missed the playoffs, the college football team was not bowl-eligible, the college basketball team failed to qualify for March Madness and the college hockey team couldn't make it's own conference tourney, I am going to be 100% positive:
Sure, it's been a rough season for the Twins, but have you ever seen a team with this many injury issues? They got a little fat and happy with their new stadium and division championship last season, and things slipped a bit, but give it a year and they'll be back on top, looking down at the Tigers and White Sox like they've done all decade. Plenty of money coming off the books, the young guys continue to improve, things will be just fine.
Sure, the Wolves have been an NBA laughingstock for the last few seasons and will likely start the season in a lockout, but all signs point to Rick Adelman as the new coaching hire, which could be a game-changer for the franchise. We'll give them a mulligan on the Rambis thing, he was a bad fit from the start, and it was good that they recognized their mistake and cut their losses. With all the young talent on this team, there's a lot to be excited about, all it will take is a patient coach who knows how to tap into said talent, and Adelman is likely that guy.
Sure, the Wild made a bunch of signings that killed their cap flexibility in the present and future, but with some of those contracts coming off the books and a few savvy trades, they have the look of a playoff contender. The young defenseman will need to step up, along with the goaltending, but the upcoming Wild squad appears to have more scoring punch than any version since the days of a healthy Marian Gaborik, which we know weren't many.
Sure, the Vikings missed their window, and are entering a transitional period, but who's to say what will happen in an NFL season? Although it's going to take a lot of luck to get over .500, worse teams than this have qualified for the playoffs, it's the one league where (almost) every team truly has a shot. Heck, the Bears won 11 games last year, and I'm not sure they were markedly more talented that this year's Vikings squad, a couple breaks can go a long way.
Sure, the Gopher football team was atrocious last season, but the finish they put together made it more clear than ever that the biggest problem with the team was gameday coaching. Winning 2 out of 3 Big Ten games to finish out isn't exactly cause for celebration, but it is something to build on, and reminds us that you can't overstate the importance of not being coached by Tim Brewster when it comes to winning football games. At least the current guy running things is somebody you want to root for, not someone who seems like he should be trying to sell your the undercoat package on a 2004 Chrysler Seabring.
Sure, the Gopher hoops team finished far below expectations, but there were plenty of bright spots before the team got decimated by defections and injuries. At various points during the season, the team was on solid footing, only to have the rug pulled by yet another injury. The silver lining is the experience that last year's freshman got, and will be bringing into this season. Toss in what's been, by all accounts, a solid recruiting class, and there's no reason to expect a repeat of last year's limp to the finish.
Sure, Gopher hockey has fallen on hard times, but the fact remains that it will always have one of the most talented rosters in the country, and the most oft-cited problem with the coaching staff has been rectified. Nobody is saynig national championship, but it can't be ignored that the Gophers played their best against top teams, beating 3 of the 4 Frozen Four participants last season. Adding some consistency to that high-end play should at least get the team back in the NCAA tourney this season, and from there, who knows?
Alright, I hope that helped, doubtful that it will be a frequent occurrence as things play out, but there's no reason to pile on too heavy at this point.
As I've said, plenty of time for that once the games start :)
As to the first point, the blog is called Loserville for a reason, and man has this town been living up to that moniker lately. Although I trend negative due to years of experience, there have been nuggets of optimism sprinkled through these posts. Sure the doldrums of summer tend to get me down, but the last post was packed with upcoming highlights of the fall season, what could be more optimistic than that? I picked the Twins to win the division and Gopher football team to win 7 games last year, that's looks like optimism bordering on delusion at this point.
But being that we're on the cusp of a new season, it's probably a good time to pump things up and get excited about the prospects of the various local teams. There will be plenty of time to lament failure later on. If sports had it's own calendar, then August 31st would be New Year's Eve; tomorrow September starts, and with it comes fresh versions of football, hockey and basketball teams at all levels. Baseball has it's own weird calendar that doesn't really fit, like it's run by the Mayans or something, but for the rest of the world, the slate has been wiped clean, and it's time to get rolling.
So now, I will attempt my most difficult feat. In a town where all four professional teams have missed the playoffs, the college football team was not bowl-eligible, the college basketball team failed to qualify for March Madness and the college hockey team couldn't make it's own conference tourney, I am going to be 100% positive:
Sure, it's been a rough season for the Twins, but have you ever seen a team with this many injury issues? They got a little fat and happy with their new stadium and division championship last season, and things slipped a bit, but give it a year and they'll be back on top, looking down at the Tigers and White Sox like they've done all decade. Plenty of money coming off the books, the young guys continue to improve, things will be just fine.
Sure, the Wolves have been an NBA laughingstock for the last few seasons and will likely start the season in a lockout, but all signs point to Rick Adelman as the new coaching hire, which could be a game-changer for the franchise. We'll give them a mulligan on the Rambis thing, he was a bad fit from the start, and it was good that they recognized their mistake and cut their losses. With all the young talent on this team, there's a lot to be excited about, all it will take is a patient coach who knows how to tap into said talent, and Adelman is likely that guy.
Sure, the Wild made a bunch of signings that killed their cap flexibility in the present and future, but with some of those contracts coming off the books and a few savvy trades, they have the look of a playoff contender. The young defenseman will need to step up, along with the goaltending, but the upcoming Wild squad appears to have more scoring punch than any version since the days of a healthy Marian Gaborik, which we know weren't many.
Sure, the Vikings missed their window, and are entering a transitional period, but who's to say what will happen in an NFL season? Although it's going to take a lot of luck to get over .500, worse teams than this have qualified for the playoffs, it's the one league where (almost) every team truly has a shot. Heck, the Bears won 11 games last year, and I'm not sure they were markedly more talented that this year's Vikings squad, a couple breaks can go a long way.
Sure, the Gopher football team was atrocious last season, but the finish they put together made it more clear than ever that the biggest problem with the team was gameday coaching. Winning 2 out of 3 Big Ten games to finish out isn't exactly cause for celebration, but it is something to build on, and reminds us that you can't overstate the importance of not being coached by Tim Brewster when it comes to winning football games. At least the current guy running things is somebody you want to root for, not someone who seems like he should be trying to sell your the undercoat package on a 2004 Chrysler Seabring.
Sure, the Gopher hoops team finished far below expectations, but there were plenty of bright spots before the team got decimated by defections and injuries. At various points during the season, the team was on solid footing, only to have the rug pulled by yet another injury. The silver lining is the experience that last year's freshman got, and will be bringing into this season. Toss in what's been, by all accounts, a solid recruiting class, and there's no reason to expect a repeat of last year's limp to the finish.
Sure, Gopher hockey has fallen on hard times, but the fact remains that it will always have one of the most talented rosters in the country, and the most oft-cited problem with the coaching staff has been rectified. Nobody is saynig national championship, but it can't be ignored that the Gophers played their best against top teams, beating 3 of the 4 Frozen Four participants last season. Adding some consistency to that high-end play should at least get the team back in the NCAA tourney this season, and from there, who knows?
Alright, I hope that helped, doubtful that it will be a frequent occurrence as things play out, but there's no reason to pile on too heavy at this point.
As I've said, plenty of time for that once the games start :)
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Their way or the highway
It takes a special set of circumstances for a baseball team sitting 11 1/2 games back in it's division on August 15th to make national news. Something truly huge must happen, in the vein of a perfect game or bench-clearing brawl, to put something so irrelevant at center stage. The Twins had one of those rare occurrences last night, when Jim Thome smacked home runs #599 and #600, making him one of only 8 MLB players to accomplish that feat.
That was a nice moment for a guy who, by all accounts, is truly a class individual. It provided a great moment for his family, and offered the average Twins fan a nice distraction in the waning weeks of this lost season. But beyond getting a warm fuzzy for a few hours, there's not much meaning in those Thome moonshots. Sure they helped beat the Tigers, but anything done against Detroit at this late date will no doubt fall into the too little, too late category. The team is dead, and has been for awhile, now the last pleasant distraction has passed, and all we have to consider is a franchise coming off it's worst season in a very long time.
Pondering the future is what makes the other newsworthy move of yesterday, the trade of Delmon Young to the Tigers, stand out more in my mind than Thome's accomplishment. It would be ridiculous to put the two of them on par in terms of importance as players, and that's not my goal. I'm simply saying that Delmon's future is one we needed to be concerned about as Twins fans, whereas Thome's tale is probably coming to a close. As fun as his tenure was here, and as cool as it might've been to see the milestone reached in a Twins uniform, it's important to remember that Thome's record is a personal milestone. Keep in mind that far more of those 600 hurt us than helped us. Much like Mauer and Morneau's MVP awards, you can put a plaque on the wall and admire the individual performances, if that's your thing, but none of it brings the team any closer to a championship.
To be clear, I have no particular love for Delmon Young. Although I defend him during his time here, it was always driven by his youth, potential, and the hope that he would develop into a player who would help the ballclub. Not because I enjoy rooting for ballplayers who come off as aloof and disengaged, or because I enjoy watching left field being patrolled by a guy who ran like a horse on roller skates, but because he offered potential that just about every other young player in the organization lacked. Every fan had watched Delmon regress back into flailing incompetence this season, and every fan had read tales of his impersonal or standoffish interactions with coaches, nobody who follows this team would call themselves a "fan" of Delmon Young.
But that doesn't change the fact that this trade was poorly timed.
The Twins essentially got nothing in return for a guy who finished 10th in AL MVP balloting last season, and I'm still awaiting some sort of logic defending this move that I can agree with. The baseball media and bloggers in this town greeted the move witha parade of snark, quick to point out how flawed Delmon was as a player, and how much he would not be missed. Phil Mackey, who's work I enjoy, wrote a good piece illustrating the roller coaster that was DY, but it still leaves me cold. For all of the solid reasoning offered about why he'd probably never regain his 2010 form, or could not be counted on to live up to a big deal, I still have to ask, what was the harm in waiting?
Here we, with 6 weeks left in a lost season, everything that colud've gone wrong has gone wrong, the team is going nowhere, and it's time to start thinking about next year. I suppose that Young's presence in the lockerroom could've been so toxic that they felt they needed to move him on the spot, but if that was the case, why not a month ago? Predicting future value of baseball players is a tough job that I know little about, but I do know that in the general art of negotiation, limiting options is the best way to ensure you won't receive fair value. The Twins locked themselves into dealing with a single team by waiting until after the non-waiver trade deadline had passed, then compounded it by not pulling the player back and waiting until the offseason, when some other deal could've bee crafted without restriction.
I meant what did this guy do that he needed to be shipped out of town so fast, sleep with somebody's wife? If the Twins didn't want to pay him next season, then they could've let him walk, but I'd be willing to bet the offseason trade market would've delivered at least the same two mediocre relief pitchers that they got in return. Frankly I don't understand the logic of not giving it one more season with Young at $5 million, just to see if a contract year might help him recapture his motivation. Are there really so many great hitting options that are demanding to be played on the rest of this roster? In the minors? You don't have to look too far to find a Minnesota Twin who's significantly underperformed his contract this season, and several others don't have a season in their history that measures up to Delmon's 2010 campaign.
Which brings me to the general point, is the "Twins Way" of centering the team around low-key, high-character players limiting their thinking here? Meaning, did Delmon get traded simply because he was difficult to coach? Nobody would disagree with the thought of getting guys with good character on paper, but this is sports, and a lot of times the d-bags are the most talented guys in the room. Over six months and 162 games, it's easy to see how a grating personality could hurt clubhouse atmosphere. But it's equally easy to see how a lack of fire could lead to an environment in which personality trumps production.
It's true that there are not many concrete examples to offer, but the list of players who have anecdotally been tabbed as "not a good fit" grows ever longer. This season alone, I've heard it uttered regarding Orlando Cabrera, Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, Orlando Hudson and several others. Now that's not a list of guys to lament losing, but some of them are solid major leaguers with successful careers. Toss in comments about coaching style from David Ortiz, among others, and it makes a guy wonder a bit about the priorities of the franchise.
Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, all good players who seem like good guys, but nobody's going to confuse them with Earl Weaver when it comes to fiery motivation. For what it's worth, I'm probably a terrible judge of what would make for good atmosphere on a ballclub. After all, I'm just a reactionary fan, offering outside opinion without the perspective to back it up, and my bi-polar approach to things would probably burn everyone out by June.
But as a retort, I'll just say that this game takes all kinds, many organizations with many different philosohies and personality types have made their way into the winner's circle. History has proven the Twins approach to be effective, at least to a point, and piling on in a down season is not the goal here. I just can't help but think they got frustrated in this case, and let personal issues trump the business of baseball.
Say what you will about Delmon Young, but there can be no disputing that the man could hit a baseball. Maddeningly inconsistent as he might've been, selling at the lowest point possible is bad business. Acknowledging that there is probably more to the story, I just don't understand why this move had to be made now.
Cross your fingers that it doesn't come back to bite us in the ass.
That was a nice moment for a guy who, by all accounts, is truly a class individual. It provided a great moment for his family, and offered the average Twins fan a nice distraction in the waning weeks of this lost season. But beyond getting a warm fuzzy for a few hours, there's not much meaning in those Thome moonshots. Sure they helped beat the Tigers, but anything done against Detroit at this late date will no doubt fall into the too little, too late category. The team is dead, and has been for awhile, now the last pleasant distraction has passed, and all we have to consider is a franchise coming off it's worst season in a very long time.
Pondering the future is what makes the other newsworthy move of yesterday, the trade of Delmon Young to the Tigers, stand out more in my mind than Thome's accomplishment. It would be ridiculous to put the two of them on par in terms of importance as players, and that's not my goal. I'm simply saying that Delmon's future is one we needed to be concerned about as Twins fans, whereas Thome's tale is probably coming to a close. As fun as his tenure was here, and as cool as it might've been to see the milestone reached in a Twins uniform, it's important to remember that Thome's record is a personal milestone. Keep in mind that far more of those 600 hurt us than helped us. Much like Mauer and Morneau's MVP awards, you can put a plaque on the wall and admire the individual performances, if that's your thing, but none of it brings the team any closer to a championship.
To be clear, I have no particular love for Delmon Young. Although I defend him during his time here, it was always driven by his youth, potential, and the hope that he would develop into a player who would help the ballclub. Not because I enjoy rooting for ballplayers who come off as aloof and disengaged, or because I enjoy watching left field being patrolled by a guy who ran like a horse on roller skates, but because he offered potential that just about every other young player in the organization lacked. Every fan had watched Delmon regress back into flailing incompetence this season, and every fan had read tales of his impersonal or standoffish interactions with coaches, nobody who follows this team would call themselves a "fan" of Delmon Young.
But that doesn't change the fact that this trade was poorly timed.
The Twins essentially got nothing in return for a guy who finished 10th in AL MVP balloting last season, and I'm still awaiting some sort of logic defending this move that I can agree with. The baseball media and bloggers in this town greeted the move witha parade of snark, quick to point out how flawed Delmon was as a player, and how much he would not be missed. Phil Mackey, who's work I enjoy, wrote a good piece illustrating the roller coaster that was DY, but it still leaves me cold. For all of the solid reasoning offered about why he'd probably never regain his 2010 form, or could not be counted on to live up to a big deal, I still have to ask, what was the harm in waiting?
Here we, with 6 weeks left in a lost season, everything that colud've gone wrong has gone wrong, the team is going nowhere, and it's time to start thinking about next year. I suppose that Young's presence in the lockerroom could've been so toxic that they felt they needed to move him on the spot, but if that was the case, why not a month ago? Predicting future value of baseball players is a tough job that I know little about, but I do know that in the general art of negotiation, limiting options is the best way to ensure you won't receive fair value. The Twins locked themselves into dealing with a single team by waiting until after the non-waiver trade deadline had passed, then compounded it by not pulling the player back and waiting until the offseason, when some other deal could've bee crafted without restriction.
I meant what did this guy do that he needed to be shipped out of town so fast, sleep with somebody's wife? If the Twins didn't want to pay him next season, then they could've let him walk, but I'd be willing to bet the offseason trade market would've delivered at least the same two mediocre relief pitchers that they got in return. Frankly I don't understand the logic of not giving it one more season with Young at $5 million, just to see if a contract year might help him recapture his motivation. Are there really so many great hitting options that are demanding to be played on the rest of this roster? In the minors? You don't have to look too far to find a Minnesota Twin who's significantly underperformed his contract this season, and several others don't have a season in their history that measures up to Delmon's 2010 campaign.
Which brings me to the general point, is the "Twins Way" of centering the team around low-key, high-character players limiting their thinking here? Meaning, did Delmon get traded simply because he was difficult to coach? Nobody would disagree with the thought of getting guys with good character on paper, but this is sports, and a lot of times the d-bags are the most talented guys in the room. Over six months and 162 games, it's easy to see how a grating personality could hurt clubhouse atmosphere. But it's equally easy to see how a lack of fire could lead to an environment in which personality trumps production.
It's true that there are not many concrete examples to offer, but the list of players who have anecdotally been tabbed as "not a good fit" grows ever longer. This season alone, I've heard it uttered regarding Orlando Cabrera, Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, Orlando Hudson and several others. Now that's not a list of guys to lament losing, but some of them are solid major leaguers with successful careers. Toss in comments about coaching style from David Ortiz, among others, and it makes a guy wonder a bit about the priorities of the franchise.
Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, all good players who seem like good guys, but nobody's going to confuse them with Earl Weaver when it comes to fiery motivation. For what it's worth, I'm probably a terrible judge of what would make for good atmosphere on a ballclub. After all, I'm just a reactionary fan, offering outside opinion without the perspective to back it up, and my bi-polar approach to things would probably burn everyone out by June.
But as a retort, I'll just say that this game takes all kinds, many organizations with many different philosohies and personality types have made their way into the winner's circle. History has proven the Twins approach to be effective, at least to a point, and piling on in a down season is not the goal here. I just can't help but think they got frustrated in this case, and let personal issues trump the business of baseball.
Say what you will about Delmon Young, but there can be no disputing that the man could hit a baseball. Maddeningly inconsistent as he might've been, selling at the lowest point possible is bad business. Acknowledging that there is probably more to the story, I just don't understand why this move had to be made now.
Cross your fingers that it doesn't come back to bite us in the ass.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Lost in transition
Is there anything worse than the excruciating wait for something you're really looking forward to? Leaving for a week's vacation on Friday always seems to make the week crawl along at an interminably slow pace. This is where I'm currently at with the football season, while the end of the lockout and tidal wave of player movement have certainly been nice, there's still a month to wait before the games that count actually start...and it's going to be a slow one. Sure you could look to areas outside sports for distractions, but do you really need to be reminded that the current balance of your 401k is approximately equivalent to a cup of coffee? I thought not.
Many writers out there seem to be dealing with this year's August lull by wondering what might've been if changes were made to sports history. Locally, Michael Rand of the Star Tribune has been re-visiting some of the more painful losses in Twins and Vikings history, wondering how history might've unfolded differently had they gone the other direction. On a national level, SI's Joe Posnanski unveiled the concept of Sports Code, a take off on the file "Source Code", and it's notion that while you can't directly change events, you can attempt to change the circumstances surrounding them, and let the chips fall where they may from there.
Posnanski explains:
There are only two conditions that I just invented for Sports Code.
(1) You can’t change a sporting RESULT. That is to say, you can’t go back and have Scott Norwood MAKE the field goal or have Michael Jordan MISS the jumper or have that Butler kid make the halfcourt shot. You cannot make Bill Buckner field the ground ball cleanly (though you could try to convince Red Sox manager John McNamara to put in Dave Stapleton as a defensive replacement). Those are results, and they happened, and they cannot be changed (in my completely made-up scenario). No, you can only change something tangible, something that might make a difference ...
(2) You can’t go back and create a whole new ending. That’s a slightly tricky concept, but here’s what I mean: For it to be a true Sports Code moment, you need to leave the ending open-ended. So, as much as you might want to do this, you can’t have Jim Joyce make the right call so that Armando Galarraga gets his perfect game. Because, in that case, he GETS THE PERFECT GAME, and the story is over. That’s a closed ending. The point here is to change something and then let a new ending unfold naturally.
As a serial lamenter of what might've been, this concept intrigued me, and when a friend called my attention to the article last week, I had to ask the question: What would comprise my Minnesota Sports Code Top 5?
About a year-and-a-half ago, on the heels of the most recent Vikings debacle, I was compelled to put together the Minnesota sports Hall of Pain, and that's where most of my inspiration is drawn from. The first two items, in fact, have to do with the two games Rand chose to wonder about:
1. Tell Denny Green to stay aggressive
No one could say for sure what would've happened in the 1998 NFC Championship game had the Vikings put the pedal down and attempted to bury the Falcons with their prolific offense...but we do know for sure what going the conservative route got us. All season long, a record-setting offense had covered up flaws in a mediocre defense by getting up big and making opponents react. The kneel down at half was just one example the could be found of a wide-open gameplan turning conservative overnight. They should've continued to adhere to the Randy Moss matra of "just chuck it deep dawg", instead the offensive coaches Schottenheimered the s*it out of it. Somebody needed to remind Denny that playing not to lose is for losers.
2. Tell Gardy to pull Joe Nathan
Sure the guy was a fantastic pitcher, but you're going to throw him out there against the heart of the best order in baseball for a third inning in a huge postseason game? I can remember being surprised at the time. Then enraged, followed by disappointed, hopeful and ultimately despondent. Throw in the Hunter home run that gave us the lead in the top of the inning, and it was one of the quickest emotional rollercoasters on record. Ahhh, those were the days, back when postseason failures in New York had the potential to wound.
A couple others have to do with draft day dealings:
3. Tell Kevin McHale not to swap Ray Allen for Stephon Marbury
For my money, the greatest sports "what-if" in this town during my life time. A 1-2 punch of Kevin Garnett and Allen would've created the makings for decade's worth of perennial contenders, not alienated Tom Gugliotta and completely changed the course of a historically awful franchise. On a related note, if someone put a red button in front of me right now, and told me that if I pushed it, Stephon Marbury would drop dead, I can honestly say that I would not. I can also honestly say that from 1999-2001, there was approximately an 80% chance that I would've pushed that button.
4. Tell Mike Nolan to draft Aaron Rodgers
This wouldn't have done a thing to help my team, but it would have prevented Rodgers of landing in Green Bay and becoming the phenomenal quarterback that he is. Watching this whole thing unfold has been like a bad dream for Vikings fans, who didn't even have time to celebrate the end of the Favre Era before a new QB who might end up being even better came along. Aaron Rodgers seems like a decent dude, I wish no particular ill on the man, but why the hell did he have to end up with the Packers? Ghandi must've had a cheesehead, and Hitler some Helga horns, given the karma at work here.
And finally, the current great "what-if" on our local sports scene, appropos to the last couple nights of baseball:
5. Tell the Twins to take the Red Sox trade offer for Johan Santana
With the Red Sox in town this week, we've already gotten a good look at CF Jacoby Ellsbury, who's in the running for AL MVP this season. Tonight, their elite lefty Jon Lester will take the mound, looking to finish off the series sweep. During the Santana sweepstakes, it was widely reported that a sticking point for the Twins was the inclusion of both of these players in the Red Sox offer. Boston, quite astutely as it turned out, would only include one, which ultimately scuttled the deal. 3 1/2 years later, offering the package of four players the Twins ultimately ended up receiving from the Mets for either one of these BoSox stars would get you laughed out of the room at best, committed at worst. Three of the four "prospects" Minnesota received are now gone from the organization, with the fourth, Delois Guerra, not exactly knocking down the door to the majors. Sure, Carlos Gomez had a few fun moments here, and brief flashes of potential, but ultimately the greatest benefit realize from dealing the best pitcher in the game was one season of J.J. Hardy and Jon Rauch. Be still my heart.
And if all that doesn't have you significantly depressed, it's probably time to refill the prescription.
Many writers out there seem to be dealing with this year's August lull by wondering what might've been if changes were made to sports history. Locally, Michael Rand of the Star Tribune has been re-visiting some of the more painful losses in Twins and Vikings history, wondering how history might've unfolded differently had they gone the other direction. On a national level, SI's Joe Posnanski unveiled the concept of Sports Code, a take off on the file "Source Code", and it's notion that while you can't directly change events, you can attempt to change the circumstances surrounding them, and let the chips fall where they may from there.
Posnanski explains:
There are only two conditions that I just invented for Sports Code.
(1) You can’t change a sporting RESULT. That is to say, you can’t go back and have Scott Norwood MAKE the field goal or have Michael Jordan MISS the jumper or have that Butler kid make the halfcourt shot. You cannot make Bill Buckner field the ground ball cleanly (though you could try to convince Red Sox manager John McNamara to put in Dave Stapleton as a defensive replacement). Those are results, and they happened, and they cannot be changed (in my completely made-up scenario). No, you can only change something tangible, something that might make a difference ...
(2) You can’t go back and create a whole new ending. That’s a slightly tricky concept, but here’s what I mean: For it to be a true Sports Code moment, you need to leave the ending open-ended. So, as much as you might want to do this, you can’t have Jim Joyce make the right call so that Armando Galarraga gets his perfect game. Because, in that case, he GETS THE PERFECT GAME, and the story is over. That’s a closed ending. The point here is to change something and then let a new ending unfold naturally.
As a serial lamenter of what might've been, this concept intrigued me, and when a friend called my attention to the article last week, I had to ask the question: What would comprise my Minnesota Sports Code Top 5?
About a year-and-a-half ago, on the heels of the most recent Vikings debacle, I was compelled to put together the Minnesota sports Hall of Pain, and that's where most of my inspiration is drawn from. The first two items, in fact, have to do with the two games Rand chose to wonder about:
1. Tell Denny Green to stay aggressive
No one could say for sure what would've happened in the 1998 NFC Championship game had the Vikings put the pedal down and attempted to bury the Falcons with their prolific offense...but we do know for sure what going the conservative route got us. All season long, a record-setting offense had covered up flaws in a mediocre defense by getting up big and making opponents react. The kneel down at half was just one example the could be found of a wide-open gameplan turning conservative overnight. They should've continued to adhere to the Randy Moss matra of "just chuck it deep dawg", instead the offensive coaches Schottenheimered the s*it out of it. Somebody needed to remind Denny that playing not to lose is for losers.
2. Tell Gardy to pull Joe Nathan
Sure the guy was a fantastic pitcher, but you're going to throw him out there against the heart of the best order in baseball for a third inning in a huge postseason game? I can remember being surprised at the time. Then enraged, followed by disappointed, hopeful and ultimately despondent. Throw in the Hunter home run that gave us the lead in the top of the inning, and it was one of the quickest emotional rollercoasters on record. Ahhh, those were the days, back when postseason failures in New York had the potential to wound.
A couple others have to do with draft day dealings:
3. Tell Kevin McHale not to swap Ray Allen for Stephon Marbury
For my money, the greatest sports "what-if" in this town during my life time. A 1-2 punch of Kevin Garnett and Allen would've created the makings for decade's worth of perennial contenders, not alienated Tom Gugliotta and completely changed the course of a historically awful franchise. On a related note, if someone put a red button in front of me right now, and told me that if I pushed it, Stephon Marbury would drop dead, I can honestly say that I would not. I can also honestly say that from 1999-2001, there was approximately an 80% chance that I would've pushed that button.
4. Tell Mike Nolan to draft Aaron Rodgers
This wouldn't have done a thing to help my team, but it would have prevented Rodgers of landing in Green Bay and becoming the phenomenal quarterback that he is. Watching this whole thing unfold has been like a bad dream for Vikings fans, who didn't even have time to celebrate the end of the Favre Era before a new QB who might end up being even better came along. Aaron Rodgers seems like a decent dude, I wish no particular ill on the man, but why the hell did he have to end up with the Packers? Ghandi must've had a cheesehead, and Hitler some Helga horns, given the karma at work here.
And finally, the current great "what-if" on our local sports scene, appropos to the last couple nights of baseball:
5. Tell the Twins to take the Red Sox trade offer for Johan Santana
With the Red Sox in town this week, we've already gotten a good look at CF Jacoby Ellsbury, who's in the running for AL MVP this season. Tonight, their elite lefty Jon Lester will take the mound, looking to finish off the series sweep. During the Santana sweepstakes, it was widely reported that a sticking point for the Twins was the inclusion of both of these players in the Red Sox offer. Boston, quite astutely as it turned out, would only include one, which ultimately scuttled the deal. 3 1/2 years later, offering the package of four players the Twins ultimately ended up receiving from the Mets for either one of these BoSox stars would get you laughed out of the room at best, committed at worst. Three of the four "prospects" Minnesota received are now gone from the organization, with the fourth, Delois Guerra, not exactly knocking down the door to the majors. Sure, Carlos Gomez had a few fun moments here, and brief flashes of potential, but ultimately the greatest benefit realize from dealing the best pitcher in the game was one season of J.J. Hardy and Jon Rauch. Be still my heart.
And if all that doesn't have you significantly depressed, it's probably time to refill the prescription.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
5 Lists Of Five
Five Twins that should be dealt immediately for whatever they can get
1) Michael Cuddyer - Yes, I know it will never happen, but he has value, and could always return to finish out his career after the season. Besides, doesn't the guy want a shot at winning?
2) Jason Kubel - Same as above, I'm not anti-Kubel, but we've got a glut of similar outfielders going here.
3) Joe Nathan - Save some cash and maybe get a prospect back, I want no part of next year's huge option.
4) Matt Capps - If anyone wants him. Might have to just hang a "FREE" sign around his neck and have him stand along First Ave.
5) Kevin Slowey - Yes, I know his value is at an all-time low, but it seems apparent that he's never going to pitch for the Twins, so what's the alternative?
Bottom line: They'll probably do nothing and overpay Cuddyer to stay after the season. High marks for loyalty I suppose, but seems like a dumb move from a value standpoint. It's naive to think that you're going to turn two months of Michael Cuddyer into some kind of prospect windfall, but he's a versatille player that a lot of teams could use, and anything you get back is gravy.
Five Vikings who hopefully won't be Vikings by the end of this week
1) Bernard Berrian - The team might be between a rock and a hard place at the wide receiver position if Sidney Rice signs elsewhere, but even if that's the case, it's hard to imagine Berrian helping the situation. One of the all-time "right place, right time" NFL signings, Berrian parlayed a lack of good options at his position into a big contract. One of those moves that looks bad at the time, then only gets worse. His signature play in 3 years as a Viking is probably this one, which is cringeworthy for any Purple fan.
2) Ray Edwards - Bye Ray.
3) Madieu Williams - Seems like a good guy, based on all those community awards, if only he were a good football player.
4) John Sullivan - Okay, maybe not off the roster, but at least not being counted on to handle a starting job.
5) Tavaris Jackson - Yes, there is zero chance he will still be on the roster, just had to say one last time how good it is to see him go.
Bottom line: Was very close to putting Sidney Rice on this list, given his injury history and shenanigans surrounding the delayed surgery last offseason. The guy does have a Pro Bowl under his belt, and lack of productivity in two other seasons can mostly be attributed to bad quarterbacking. But in the end, the guaranteed money he gets is probably going to be more than his accomplishments merit.
Five things that thankfully you won't be hearing me say this fall
1) "I managed to snag that running back from Ball St in my college football fantasy draft. 37th round, what a steal!"
2) "Monday night is synonymous with one thing, 'Dancing with the Stars' of course!
(In case you were wondering, the answer is yes, I did have to look that up)
3) "I dunno, going drinking sounds like fun and all, but I might just sit here weeping softly and missing football."
4) "All the free time on Sundays has allowed me the time to get back to my true love, killing drifters."
5) "Well at least Green Bay won't repeat"
Bottom line: We're back baby!!!
Five guys who'd look good in purple
1) Sidney Rice, WR - Yup, I'm waffling, sue me.
2) Davin Joseph / Harvey Dahl, OG - It's time for the Vikings to get back to playing tough defense with a grind-it-out running game, and this is the first step.
3) Matt Hasselbeck, QB - Christian Ponder may one day be a solid QB in this league, but I don't think it will be this season. Following this abbreviated offseason, a year to sit and learn may be just what the doctor ordered, throwing him out there from day one will probably result in shattered confidence at best and a shattered clavicle at worst. Kyle Orton would be great, but he's got a big cap hit and probably isn't too interested in being a one-year fill-in.
4) Eric Weddle, S - Been awhile since we've had a competent safety around these parts.
5) Nnamdi Asomugha - Never going to happen, not a chance. But that does not change the fact he would look very good in purple. Unfortunately it will probably be Ravens purple.
Bottom line: Mediocre roster, not a lot of cap space, might be better served to take a step back now so we can take two forward later on. The Vikings have become the Wild.
Five things overhead in the Twins dugout during last night's drubbing
1) "I thought Frank pitched yesterday?"
2) "On the bright side, we did help a lot of people earn free chalupas."
3) "I'd say we should make Liddle drive to dinner, but he's got that problem with stop signs."
4) "Not an itching, more of a burning really, taking that trip to the Dominican with Mijares over the All-Star break might not've been the best idea."
5) "Christ is this embarrassing."
Bottom line: It's over.
1) Michael Cuddyer - Yes, I know it will never happen, but he has value, and could always return to finish out his career after the season. Besides, doesn't the guy want a shot at winning?
2) Jason Kubel - Same as above, I'm not anti-Kubel, but we've got a glut of similar outfielders going here.
3) Joe Nathan - Save some cash and maybe get a prospect back, I want no part of next year's huge option.
4) Matt Capps - If anyone wants him. Might have to just hang a "FREE" sign around his neck and have him stand along First Ave.
5) Kevin Slowey - Yes, I know his value is at an all-time low, but it seems apparent that he's never going to pitch for the Twins, so what's the alternative?
Bottom line: They'll probably do nothing and overpay Cuddyer to stay after the season. High marks for loyalty I suppose, but seems like a dumb move from a value standpoint. It's naive to think that you're going to turn two months of Michael Cuddyer into some kind of prospect windfall, but he's a versatille player that a lot of teams could use, and anything you get back is gravy.
Five Vikings who hopefully won't be Vikings by the end of this week
1) Bernard Berrian - The team might be between a rock and a hard place at the wide receiver position if Sidney Rice signs elsewhere, but even if that's the case, it's hard to imagine Berrian helping the situation. One of the all-time "right place, right time" NFL signings, Berrian parlayed a lack of good options at his position into a big contract. One of those moves that looks bad at the time, then only gets worse. His signature play in 3 years as a Viking is probably this one, which is cringeworthy for any Purple fan.
2) Ray Edwards - Bye Ray.
3) Madieu Williams - Seems like a good guy, based on all those community awards, if only he were a good football player.
4) John Sullivan - Okay, maybe not off the roster, but at least not being counted on to handle a starting job.
5) Tavaris Jackson - Yes, there is zero chance he will still be on the roster, just had to say one last time how good it is to see him go.
Bottom line: Was very close to putting Sidney Rice on this list, given his injury history and shenanigans surrounding the delayed surgery last offseason. The guy does have a Pro Bowl under his belt, and lack of productivity in two other seasons can mostly be attributed to bad quarterbacking. But in the end, the guaranteed money he gets is probably going to be more than his accomplishments merit.
Five things that thankfully you won't be hearing me say this fall
1) "I managed to snag that running back from Ball St in my college football fantasy draft. 37th round, what a steal!"
2) "Monday night is synonymous with one thing, 'Dancing with the Stars' of course!
(In case you were wondering, the answer is yes, I did have to look that up)
3) "I dunno, going drinking sounds like fun and all, but I might just sit here weeping softly and missing football."
4) "All the free time on Sundays has allowed me the time to get back to my true love, killing drifters."
5) "Well at least Green Bay won't repeat"
Bottom line: We're back baby!!!
Five guys who'd look good in purple
1) Sidney Rice, WR - Yup, I'm waffling, sue me.
2) Davin Joseph / Harvey Dahl, OG - It's time for the Vikings to get back to playing tough defense with a grind-it-out running game, and this is the first step.
3) Matt Hasselbeck, QB - Christian Ponder may one day be a solid QB in this league, but I don't think it will be this season. Following this abbreviated offseason, a year to sit and learn may be just what the doctor ordered, throwing him out there from day one will probably result in shattered confidence at best and a shattered clavicle at worst. Kyle Orton would be great, but he's got a big cap hit and probably isn't too interested in being a one-year fill-in.
4) Eric Weddle, S - Been awhile since we've had a competent safety around these parts.
5) Nnamdi Asomugha - Never going to happen, not a chance. But that does not change the fact he would look very good in purple. Unfortunately it will probably be Ravens purple.
Bottom line: Mediocre roster, not a lot of cap space, might be better served to take a step back now so we can take two forward later on. The Vikings have become the Wild.
Five things overhead in the Twins dugout during last night's drubbing
1) "I thought Frank pitched yesterday?"
2) "On the bright side, we did help a lot of people earn free chalupas."
3) "I'd say we should make Liddle drive to dinner, but he's got that problem with stop signs."
4) "Not an itching, more of a burning really, taking that trip to the Dominican with Mijares over the All-Star break might not've been the best idea."
5) "Christ is this embarrassing."
Bottom line: It's over.
Monday, July 18, 2011
Duct tape & Bailing wire
Back on the 25th of May, I wrote the Twins off for dead, as did many others. The team was 14 1/2 games out with a 16-32 record, had a run differential (-88) that was almost twice as bad as the next lowest in baseball, and were routinely running out a lineup featuring two guys named Rene. They scuffled along for another week after that, bottoming out at 20 games below .500 and 16 1/2 GB on June 1st. Nothing looked promising in any facet of the game, between injuries and ineffectiveness, there where maybe two guys on the entire team having what you would call "good" seasons. Then a funny thing happened, they started winning.
We're not talking about ridiculous amounts of winning here, nothing to conjure memories of the last 4 months of 2006, but enough to once again make things interesting. The 27-13 stretch has pulled the team back within 5 games of both .500 and the division lead, not to mention restored public confidence in a lot of players. Frankly I blame myself for the slow start. I'm not much of an optimist, but on the rare occasions I do talk myself into a positive outlook, things usually fall apart rather quickly (see 2010 Vikings). By picking the team to finish in 1st place with a 92-70 record, I'd effectively doomed them to no higher than 3rd place and 85 victories. I then waited two full months before backtracking on that prediction in the name of not overreacting, how silly of me. Not a week after I finally did throw in the towel on the season, the tables turned and here we are, with relevant games to watch in mid-July.
You can chalk it up to whatever you want, but the fan in me knows I had something to do with it. This power is humbling, and I pledge to use it only for good. The summer of 2010 was spent lamenting the team's ineptitude and lambasting Scott Baker, with pretty good results. Then I foolishly tried to look at the playoffs with a bit of hope and the roof caved in. Lesson learned, nothing but negativity will be forthcoming from here on out. Even though it would be fun to consider the prospect of continued success, particularly with a crucial stretch of games starting tonight, that's not my role. My role is to take everything down a peg and remind people of exactly what they're dealing with here. Frankly, with this roster, that's not going to be too tough.
Because despite the impressive payroll, this team still depends on some guys who make you long for the days of Nick Punto and Eddie Guardado. Okay, maybe not Punto, but you get the point. Half of the bullpen arms have us covering our colective eyes every time they take the mound. The entire defense is playing out of position. The Japanese import can't hit, the new centerfielder can't throw and the the billion-dollar catcher can't catch. All of which adds up to the most compelling Twins team in recent memory, a throwback to the $55 million payroll days, when a ball lost in the Metrodome roof and a chopper off the plate were often the "big hits" in a home victory. They're winning, but you can't exactly figure out how, it's the second coming of 2009's Duct Tape Twins, back for a return engagement. And once again, they're barely holding this thing together.
Sure a terrible division helps, but some of the contributors so far have been positively bizarre. Alexi Casilla has apparently ditched his evil alter ego, as has Scott Baker. Michael "Contract Year" Cuddyer's production isn't that surprising, but how he did it, going from zero production to tearing it up, just adds to the oddity. Key players up and down the roster have offered anywhere from "zero" to "not much", yet for the last six weeks, the train keeps rolling. Guys named Revere, Tosoni, Plouffe and Dumatrait aren't going to make anyone forget Mauer and Morneau anytime soon, but they are coming through in enough big moments to keep things interesting, and that's a lot more than we expected two months ago.
Keeping perfectly with this trend, the Twins kick off today's big series against the Indians by sending Anthony Swarzak and Scott Diamond to the mound in a doubleheader. Neither one ranks among the team's top 6 starting pitching options, but hey, what the hell? The Duct Tape twins are back, and although the odds don't look promising, it should at least be an interesting ride.
But don't go mistaking that for optimism...
We're not talking about ridiculous amounts of winning here, nothing to conjure memories of the last 4 months of 2006, but enough to once again make things interesting. The 27-13 stretch has pulled the team back within 5 games of both .500 and the division lead, not to mention restored public confidence in a lot of players. Frankly I blame myself for the slow start. I'm not much of an optimist, but on the rare occasions I do talk myself into a positive outlook, things usually fall apart rather quickly (see 2010 Vikings). By picking the team to finish in 1st place with a 92-70 record, I'd effectively doomed them to no higher than 3rd place and 85 victories. I then waited two full months before backtracking on that prediction in the name of not overreacting, how silly of me. Not a week after I finally did throw in the towel on the season, the tables turned and here we are, with relevant games to watch in mid-July.
You can chalk it up to whatever you want, but the fan in me knows I had something to do with it. This power is humbling, and I pledge to use it only for good. The summer of 2010 was spent lamenting the team's ineptitude and lambasting Scott Baker, with pretty good results. Then I foolishly tried to look at the playoffs with a bit of hope and the roof caved in. Lesson learned, nothing but negativity will be forthcoming from here on out. Even though it would be fun to consider the prospect of continued success, particularly with a crucial stretch of games starting tonight, that's not my role. My role is to take everything down a peg and remind people of exactly what they're dealing with here. Frankly, with this roster, that's not going to be too tough.
Because despite the impressive payroll, this team still depends on some guys who make you long for the days of Nick Punto and Eddie Guardado. Okay, maybe not Punto, but you get the point. Half of the bullpen arms have us covering our colective eyes every time they take the mound. The entire defense is playing out of position. The Japanese import can't hit, the new centerfielder can't throw and the the billion-dollar catcher can't catch. All of which adds up to the most compelling Twins team in recent memory, a throwback to the $55 million payroll days, when a ball lost in the Metrodome roof and a chopper off the plate were often the "big hits" in a home victory. They're winning, but you can't exactly figure out how, it's the second coming of 2009's Duct Tape Twins, back for a return engagement. And once again, they're barely holding this thing together.
Sure a terrible division helps, but some of the contributors so far have been positively bizarre. Alexi Casilla has apparently ditched his evil alter ego, as has Scott Baker. Michael "Contract Year" Cuddyer's production isn't that surprising, but how he did it, going from zero production to tearing it up, just adds to the oddity. Key players up and down the roster have offered anywhere from "zero" to "not much", yet for the last six weeks, the train keeps rolling. Guys named Revere, Tosoni, Plouffe and Dumatrait aren't going to make anyone forget Mauer and Morneau anytime soon, but they are coming through in enough big moments to keep things interesting, and that's a lot more than we expected two months ago.
Keeping perfectly with this trend, the Twins kick off today's big series against the Indians by sending Anthony Swarzak and Scott Diamond to the mound in a doubleheader. Neither one ranks among the team's top 6 starting pitching options, but hey, what the hell? The Duct Tape twins are back, and although the odds don't look promising, it should at least be an interesting ride.
But don't go mistaking that for optimism...
Friday, June 17, 2011
Stock Watch: 6/17/11
The best (at least not involving the home teams) playoff season in recent memory has concluded, and I have to say I'm feeling some withdrawl. It's never easy to say goodbye to the 2+ month stretch of a good game or two every night. Particularly when the local ballclub isn't doing much to inspire interest.
But life goes on, and we do have a few interesting developments on the local sports scene this week. Most appear positive at the moment, but the question is, will they remain that way in the long term? Not surprisingly, I have some opinions:
Buy - Ricky Rubio as a Timberwolf
Sure I'm the guy who's spent the past two years saying that Rubio would never see the court for the Wolves, even made a wager to that end. I also continue think he's probably more style than substance at this point, and wouldn't be surprised if he ends up an NBA flop. But hey, when you're dealing with the worst franchise in the league, there's nowhere to go but up, and waiting this long has certainly added to the intrigue. Whatever shortcomings may exist in Rubio's game, the fact remains that he's younger than most of the players on the team, and should certainly get plenty of minutes to figure things out once he arrives. Hope is all this team has got, and he makes up the lion's share. Here's to the few Wolves diehards out there, I'm happy for you and hope it works out.
Sell - Mike Yeo, Minnesota Wild coach
Admittedly, I don't know much about this guy, other than what I've read the past few weeks. He could very well be the next great NHL coach. But put me in the same camp as most Wild fans today, who are questioning the idea of going with another unproven guy behind the bench. Yeo has a few things in his bio that I like: Experience with a Cup winner, history of working well with young talent, sweet name (pronounced Yo!, how can you top that?). But there are also some things causing a scratch of the head.
If the Wild are looking to embrace a youth movement, that's great, it's been long overdue. Unfortunately, the team is lacking a couple of key ingredients for said movement to be successful, most notably a group of talented young players who are ready to contribute. Sure they have a few decent prospects scattered about, but there's no one who really blows your doors off. Colton Gillies is a player who's been quick to credit Yeo with aiding his development, and he certainly ended things on a good note with a strong playoff run. But 11 goals and 15 assists in 64 AHL games doesn't offer the impression that our scoring woes are about to be a thing of the past. Last year's first round pick is staying in Finland for another season, the rest of the best are on the blue line, where the team is already somewhat strong, what youth is going to be here for Coach Yeo to mold next season?
Add this to my familiar refrain of "capped out, bad contracts" and what exactly is the radical plan which will make this situation different than what Todd Richards dealt with? Perhaps there were personality issues hastening Richards departure that we're not privy to, but does Yeo have a better shot gaining the confidence of a mostly veteran than Richard's would've in year 3? It's just a perplexing move. All along I figured the Wild were going in the MacTavish/Hitchcock direction, a veteran guy who could command the lockerroom and coax more production out the (many) underperforming veterans on the roster. Instead they head the opposite way, hiring a name that appears to lack the cachet to excite season ticketholders and the gravitas to hold the attention of the vets.
But if you want the positive spin, listening to the Barreiro show yesterday, they likened this move to the Steelers hiring Mike Tomlin away from the Vikings a few years ago, a situation with many similarities. The only problem is, that was the Steelers and this is the Wild. One team makes good decisions, the other, not so much.
Hold - The red hot Minnesota Twins
The past couple of weeks has brought the ballclub back from the dead, but they're still on life support. One bad stretch pushing them back into double digits would put us right back at square one. Sure the return of Joe Mauer and the Japanese shortstop (he's being acknowledged generically until he justifies his presence) should help, but who knows, it could also mess up whatever odd chemistry they've found lately.
Playing the second half of June the same way they did the first would do a lot to convince me that this isn't just a blip. It starts tonight with a mediocre San Diego team and a series they should take 2 out of 3 in.
But life goes on, and we do have a few interesting developments on the local sports scene this week. Most appear positive at the moment, but the question is, will they remain that way in the long term? Not surprisingly, I have some opinions:
Buy - Ricky Rubio as a Timberwolf
Sure I'm the guy who's spent the past two years saying that Rubio would never see the court for the Wolves, even made a wager to that end. I also continue think he's probably more style than substance at this point, and wouldn't be surprised if he ends up an NBA flop. But hey, when you're dealing with the worst franchise in the league, there's nowhere to go but up, and waiting this long has certainly added to the intrigue. Whatever shortcomings may exist in Rubio's game, the fact remains that he's younger than most of the players on the team, and should certainly get plenty of minutes to figure things out once he arrives. Hope is all this team has got, and he makes up the lion's share. Here's to the few Wolves diehards out there, I'm happy for you and hope it works out.
Sell - Mike Yeo, Minnesota Wild coach
Admittedly, I don't know much about this guy, other than what I've read the past few weeks. He could very well be the next great NHL coach. But put me in the same camp as most Wild fans today, who are questioning the idea of going with another unproven guy behind the bench. Yeo has a few things in his bio that I like: Experience with a Cup winner, history of working well with young talent, sweet name (pronounced Yo!, how can you top that?). But there are also some things causing a scratch of the head.
If the Wild are looking to embrace a youth movement, that's great, it's been long overdue. Unfortunately, the team is lacking a couple of key ingredients for said movement to be successful, most notably a group of talented young players who are ready to contribute. Sure they have a few decent prospects scattered about, but there's no one who really blows your doors off. Colton Gillies is a player who's been quick to credit Yeo with aiding his development, and he certainly ended things on a good note with a strong playoff run. But 11 goals and 15 assists in 64 AHL games doesn't offer the impression that our scoring woes are about to be a thing of the past. Last year's first round pick is staying in Finland for another season, the rest of the best are on the blue line, where the team is already somewhat strong, what youth is going to be here for Coach Yeo to mold next season?
Add this to my familiar refrain of "capped out, bad contracts" and what exactly is the radical plan which will make this situation different than what Todd Richards dealt with? Perhaps there were personality issues hastening Richards departure that we're not privy to, but does Yeo have a better shot gaining the confidence of a mostly veteran than Richard's would've in year 3? It's just a perplexing move. All along I figured the Wild were going in the MacTavish/Hitchcock direction, a veteran guy who could command the lockerroom and coax more production out the (many) underperforming veterans on the roster. Instead they head the opposite way, hiring a name that appears to lack the cachet to excite season ticketholders and the gravitas to hold the attention of the vets.
But if you want the positive spin, listening to the Barreiro show yesterday, they likened this move to the Steelers hiring Mike Tomlin away from the Vikings a few years ago, a situation with many similarities. The only problem is, that was the Steelers and this is the Wild. One team makes good decisions, the other, not so much.
Hold - The red hot Minnesota Twins
The past couple of weeks has brought the ballclub back from the dead, but they're still on life support. One bad stretch pushing them back into double digits would put us right back at square one. Sure the return of Joe Mauer and the Japanese shortstop (he's being acknowledged generically until he justifies his presence) should help, but who knows, it could also mess up whatever odd chemistry they've found lately.
Playing the second half of June the same way they did the first would do a lot to convince me that this isn't just a blip. It starts tonight with a mediocre San Diego team and a series they should take 2 out of 3 in.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Et tu, Twins? Et tu?
A week ago the Wolves were poised to win the lottery, the Twins were floundering in the AL Central cellar and the end of all things mere days away. Unfortunately the world did not end, so now we have to deal with the #2 pick in the NBA draft and the continued struggles of the worst team in baseball. For six weeks, Twins fans everywhere have been telling themselves not to panic. That this season's struggles in the earlygoing were simply history repeating itself. Today, there's still no panic, but that's only because the 2011 Twins season is officially over.
As a collective sporting public, Minnesota fans were, as usual, hanging their hat on the baseball club to be their saving grace. Not a damn thing had gone right in 6 months of flawed football, brutal basketball and half-*ssed hockey. Even the weather sucked. It was time for the only team in town that consistent met expectations to salvage something from this turn of the calendar. Unfortunately, the play of the team so far has not only been bad, it has been sickeningly brutal, to the tune of the worst record in the league and incompetence in every single phase of the game. When the pitching has been good, the bats have vanished. On the rare occasion the runs do appear, the starter gets shelled or bullpen implodes. Usually both. The idea of a Twins team this brutal is not completely unfathomable, after all, there is the 1990s for comparison. But the idea that a team could spend over $100 million dollars and have this little to show for it? Well that's just disgusting.
We thought that injuries were the problem, and once the lineup was intact, the ship would right itself. Unfortunately, the guys that have been playing are as bad or worse than the call-ups who are filling in, offering no hope of a turnaround even when (if?) the projected starting nine suits up. There's an undertone of soft and distinterested running through the whole roster at the moment. If being a professional baseball player was easy, everyone would do it. But that doesn't excuse the fact that some of the players are making the same mistakes over and over, with body language that can only be interpreted as careless indifference. Delmon Young has regressed to waving at any pitch thrown his way ala 2009, at least during the few moments he hasn't found himself on the DL with some minor ailment. Every time Alexi Casilla plays shortstop, it looks like the first time he's seen a baseball glove. On the rare occasions he does field a ball cleanly, there's a 1 in 3 chance it ends up in the 4th row behind first base. But hey, at least he bothers to get it out of his glove before the runner crosses the bag, unlike some other infielders we could mention.
The hitting is atrocious, Michael Cuddyer should dig the ski mask he wore to the ballpark during 2007-08 out of storage, because he is once again stealing from this team. Justin Morneau may eventully regain his timing, but at the moment he'd be better served walking to the plate holding a loaf of French bread. It certainly wouldn't cost him any hits, and you never know, the pitcher might be hungry, get distracted and walk him. The rest of the lineup is mostly retread prospects on their third or fourth spin through the minors. A bunch of once-promising never-will-bes with more holes in their game than Osama after his run-in with the SEALs. If we could just combine these guys in a lab somehow, say mixing a bit of Tolbert's fielding with Plouffe's bat, then we might have something. As it is, we have a collection of stiffs, and that might be the most depressing part. Bad seasons happen, but knowing you have exactly zero competent MLB players in the high minors? Well that's the sort of thing that dooms an organization.
And the pitching, good lord the pitching, where to even start with this nightmare. I'm not ready to say Joe Nathan is done as an MLB reliver, but he's definitely done getting paid double-digit millions to do so. Most Matt Capps outings these days make it seem as if he's determined to go down in Twins lore as "the guy we traded Wilson Ramos for". Just like the hitters, the balance of the pen is a bunch of guys who would seemingly be lucky to stick on a AAA club, it's gasoline on a fire every time they get the ball. The starters are decent some days, atrocious others. The oddest thing about this staff is the fact it's best pitchers (Baker, Blackburn, Perkins) were guys who totally flopped last season. Factoring in bounce back seasons from Span and Kubel, perhaps there's something to be said for a player re-focusing after a bad year. If that's the case, then this team should win the World Series next season, because just about every one of them is due for a career year.
It's tough to stomach just how bad the Minnesota Twins are right now, mostly because it all turned so quickly. Some bad luck has been involved, but there also seem to be no leaders on this team, and no fire to shock them out of their current funk. I'm sure a lot of guys are upset about their struggles, but a clubhouse full of monotone voices offering cliches and shrugs just doesn't convey much urgency. Nobody saw things disintegrating to this degree, but there were a few who were uneasy with the lack of offseason moves and spring training struggles. "It's only spring training", "the players just need to get their timing down" are the lines we hear, but it's clear now that more fundamental issues exist in the way this team approaches it's business. I get the impression that things might've been a bit too laid back, that after a few division titles, the players might've taken a playoff spot as a given, and let their focus slip. That's easier to swallow than a roster full of established players with productive histories all losing it at the same time.
So now I'm f***ing bitter, not at anyone in particular, just the whole situation. People may hammer the GM for not making moves, the manager for being too low-key, but that seems to miss the point. It was easy to rip a struggling Twins team when they were spending $60 million and grabbing cheap retreads off the discount rack, not so much when they have a payroll that puts them among the Top 10 in baseball. It must be mentioned that part of this is due to unfortunate timing. Nathan and Cuddyer having a year left on their overpriced contracts the same year Mauer's kicked in is a tough spot to be in. While they probably should've used the $7 million spent on Matt Capps to shore up the bullpen or middle infield, it was a defensible move. After all, when you hand over a highly-touted prospect for two months of a mediocre relief pitcher, you have to save face somehow.
Other than that, it's tough to kill the organization for what's happening here. The players that were being depended on to produce simply aren't. It's fair to wonder how so many draft picks have apparently amounted to nothing of value in the minor leagues, but that's the least of their problems. In a town this lousy, even the worst record in baseball can offer a silver lining, and that's the fact that this situation should be temporary. If this were the Wild, Cuddyer would be locked in at $15 million for the better part of a decade and they'd still raise ticket prices this offseason. To go back to the familiar mantra, things could always be worse.
That might not seem possible right now, and I'd agree it's tough to fathom a deeper hole, but sinking lower still is always in play. The Vikings finished last, the Wolves remain a rudderless joke of a franchise, the Wild are locked into at least two more years of mediocrity due to crippling contracts, every team at the U of M is lousy and now even the reliable Twins are hoplessly inept...okay, where was I going with this? Oh yeah, things could still get worse.
Joe Mauer rumors are swirling, everything from Lyme's disease to multiple sclerosis, how about throwing a bona fide tragedy on top of the overblown one?
The NFL could start cancelling games here pretty soon, that would certainly add to my depression as a sports fan.
The Wolves could use the #2 pick in the draft on some foreigner who'll go years without playing for them (actually that's probably too crazy, we know they wouldn't do anything that stupid).
The Wild could extend Martin Havlat and Nicklas Backstrom for another 5 years.
That's what we've been reduced to here in Loserville, things are so bad on every front, we now have to invent potential bad things that haven't happened, just to make what is going on more palatable. All hope for our ballclub is dead, and it's not even Memorial Day yet. My third set of Twins tickets is on deck for this Saturday, a game I've been looking forward to for weeks. I expect it to rain, and I expect them to lose, as both seem to happen every single day. I will enjoy myself, because I will be with friends, and if there's one thing we know how to do, it's shrug off disappointment. I can't muster anger anymore, and disappointment has also fallen by the wayside. I've simply resigned myself to this unfortunate situation, as it will likely last forever.
So that's it, close to book on the 2011 Twins, it's over. But hey, at least it's only a couple months until football seas....oh yeah...f**k.
As a collective sporting public, Minnesota fans were, as usual, hanging their hat on the baseball club to be their saving grace. Not a damn thing had gone right in 6 months of flawed football, brutal basketball and half-*ssed hockey. Even the weather sucked. It was time for the only team in town that consistent met expectations to salvage something from this turn of the calendar. Unfortunately, the play of the team so far has not only been bad, it has been sickeningly brutal, to the tune of the worst record in the league and incompetence in every single phase of the game. When the pitching has been good, the bats have vanished. On the rare occasion the runs do appear, the starter gets shelled or bullpen implodes. Usually both. The idea of a Twins team this brutal is not completely unfathomable, after all, there is the 1990s for comparison. But the idea that a team could spend over $100 million dollars and have this little to show for it? Well that's just disgusting.
We thought that injuries were the problem, and once the lineup was intact, the ship would right itself. Unfortunately, the guys that have been playing are as bad or worse than the call-ups who are filling in, offering no hope of a turnaround even when (if?) the projected starting nine suits up. There's an undertone of soft and distinterested running through the whole roster at the moment. If being a professional baseball player was easy, everyone would do it. But that doesn't excuse the fact that some of the players are making the same mistakes over and over, with body language that can only be interpreted as careless indifference. Delmon Young has regressed to waving at any pitch thrown his way ala 2009, at least during the few moments he hasn't found himself on the DL with some minor ailment. Every time Alexi Casilla plays shortstop, it looks like the first time he's seen a baseball glove. On the rare occasions he does field a ball cleanly, there's a 1 in 3 chance it ends up in the 4th row behind first base. But hey, at least he bothers to get it out of his glove before the runner crosses the bag, unlike some other infielders we could mention.
The hitting is atrocious, Michael Cuddyer should dig the ski mask he wore to the ballpark during 2007-08 out of storage, because he is once again stealing from this team. Justin Morneau may eventully regain his timing, but at the moment he'd be better served walking to the plate holding a loaf of French bread. It certainly wouldn't cost him any hits, and you never know, the pitcher might be hungry, get distracted and walk him. The rest of the lineup is mostly retread prospects on their third or fourth spin through the minors. A bunch of once-promising never-will-bes with more holes in their game than Osama after his run-in with the SEALs. If we could just combine these guys in a lab somehow, say mixing a bit of Tolbert's fielding with Plouffe's bat, then we might have something. As it is, we have a collection of stiffs, and that might be the most depressing part. Bad seasons happen, but knowing you have exactly zero competent MLB players in the high minors? Well that's the sort of thing that dooms an organization.
And the pitching, good lord the pitching, where to even start with this nightmare. I'm not ready to say Joe Nathan is done as an MLB reliver, but he's definitely done getting paid double-digit millions to do so. Most Matt Capps outings these days make it seem as if he's determined to go down in Twins lore as "the guy we traded Wilson Ramos for". Just like the hitters, the balance of the pen is a bunch of guys who would seemingly be lucky to stick on a AAA club, it's gasoline on a fire every time they get the ball. The starters are decent some days, atrocious others. The oddest thing about this staff is the fact it's best pitchers (Baker, Blackburn, Perkins) were guys who totally flopped last season. Factoring in bounce back seasons from Span and Kubel, perhaps there's something to be said for a player re-focusing after a bad year. If that's the case, then this team should win the World Series next season, because just about every one of them is due for a career year.
It's tough to stomach just how bad the Minnesota Twins are right now, mostly because it all turned so quickly. Some bad luck has been involved, but there also seem to be no leaders on this team, and no fire to shock them out of their current funk. I'm sure a lot of guys are upset about their struggles, but a clubhouse full of monotone voices offering cliches and shrugs just doesn't convey much urgency. Nobody saw things disintegrating to this degree, but there were a few who were uneasy with the lack of offseason moves and spring training struggles. "It's only spring training", "the players just need to get their timing down" are the lines we hear, but it's clear now that more fundamental issues exist in the way this team approaches it's business. I get the impression that things might've been a bit too laid back, that after a few division titles, the players might've taken a playoff spot as a given, and let their focus slip. That's easier to swallow than a roster full of established players with productive histories all losing it at the same time.
So now I'm f***ing bitter, not at anyone in particular, just the whole situation. People may hammer the GM for not making moves, the manager for being too low-key, but that seems to miss the point. It was easy to rip a struggling Twins team when they were spending $60 million and grabbing cheap retreads off the discount rack, not so much when they have a payroll that puts them among the Top 10 in baseball. It must be mentioned that part of this is due to unfortunate timing. Nathan and Cuddyer having a year left on their overpriced contracts the same year Mauer's kicked in is a tough spot to be in. While they probably should've used the $7 million spent on Matt Capps to shore up the bullpen or middle infield, it was a defensible move. After all, when you hand over a highly-touted prospect for two months of a mediocre relief pitcher, you have to save face somehow.
Other than that, it's tough to kill the organization for what's happening here. The players that were being depended on to produce simply aren't. It's fair to wonder how so many draft picks have apparently amounted to nothing of value in the minor leagues, but that's the least of their problems. In a town this lousy, even the worst record in baseball can offer a silver lining, and that's the fact that this situation should be temporary. If this were the Wild, Cuddyer would be locked in at $15 million for the better part of a decade and they'd still raise ticket prices this offseason. To go back to the familiar mantra, things could always be worse.
That might not seem possible right now, and I'd agree it's tough to fathom a deeper hole, but sinking lower still is always in play. The Vikings finished last, the Wolves remain a rudderless joke of a franchise, the Wild are locked into at least two more years of mediocrity due to crippling contracts, every team at the U of M is lousy and now even the reliable Twins are hoplessly inept...okay, where was I going with this? Oh yeah, things could still get worse.
Joe Mauer rumors are swirling, everything from Lyme's disease to multiple sclerosis, how about throwing a bona fide tragedy on top of the overblown one?
The NFL could start cancelling games here pretty soon, that would certainly add to my depression as a sports fan.
The Wolves could use the #2 pick in the draft on some foreigner who'll go years without playing for them (actually that's probably too crazy, we know they wouldn't do anything that stupid).
The Wild could extend Martin Havlat and Nicklas Backstrom for another 5 years.
That's what we've been reduced to here in Loserville, things are so bad on every front, we now have to invent potential bad things that haven't happened, just to make what is going on more palatable. All hope for our ballclub is dead, and it's not even Memorial Day yet. My third set of Twins tickets is on deck for this Saturday, a game I've been looking forward to for weeks. I expect it to rain, and I expect them to lose, as both seem to happen every single day. I will enjoy myself, because I will be with friends, and if there's one thing we know how to do, it's shrug off disappointment. I can't muster anger anymore, and disappointment has also fallen by the wayside. I've simply resigned myself to this unfortunate situation, as it will likely last forever.
So that's it, close to book on the 2011 Twins, it's over. But hey, at least it's only a couple months until football seas....oh yeah...f**k.
Monday, May 9, 2011
Cracks in the facade
"If the Twins are still behind Kansas City in the standings a month from now, then I'll panic"
- P. Voltin, 4/4/11
It was just over a month ago when I penned this tounge-in-cheek statement about the Twins rough first series of the year. Tonight the team plays it's 33rd game, officially putting the first 1/5th of the campaign in the books. Everyone is doing the obligatory "lotta season left" disclaimer in their discussions, but without exception, every one of those discussions is pondering how things got this bad.
The Twins now sit 9 1/2 games behind Cleveland, trailing KC by 5 and Detroit by 3 1/2, with the White Sox similar meltdown being the only thing keeping them out of the cellar. As ugly as those standings are, they don't begin to convey how bad things have truly looked here. Minnesota isn't just losing games, they're getting worked over, with a -63 run differential that's the worst in baseball by a wide margin. The team's health has been a constant problem, and the players that have been able to stay on the field aren't offering much relief.
Pick a stat, any stat, and you're not going to like what you see. 30th in runs scored. A .230 batting average that's good for 27th in the majors. Unable to get on base to scratch out runs (30th in on-base %) and unable to get the big hits to compensate for lack of base runners (29th in slugging %). If the offense were the only problem, that would offer a bit of hope, but with the pitching staff only able to muster a 4.73 ERA (28th) and 15 quality starts (27th), there's no way to get by with that kind of production at the plate.
The whole thing has been so terrible, it has me imagining a conversation between Ron Gardenhire and his pitching coach that's straight out of Bull Durham:
Gardy: "Andy, what's our record?"
Andy: "12-20"
Gardy: "How the hell did we ever win 12?"
Andy: "It's a miracle."
Gardy: "It's a miracle."
Because odd as it sounds, looking at those numbers, things should probably be even worse. The list of well-copensated players on this team offering nothing was explored by Michael Rand in the Strib today, and it's a daunting list. Other than 2011 Twins My Guy Jason Kubel and Denard Span, nobody is doing anything close to what was anticipated. I'll give Danny Valencia partial credit, leading the team in RBIs is nice, but starts looking closer to opportunism than excellence when his .230 average is factored in.
Sure a lot of that can be blamed on injuries, but what about the guys that are playing? With Span and Kubel as the only two regulars hitting over .250, it's really not overstating things to say that every other player on the team is part of the problem. Okay, a couple of the pitchers have been decent as well, with Scott Baker (amazingly) leading the way, but that's it, the entire list.
With 130 more games to be played, there is more than enough time for a turnaround, but the team had better start showing some signs of life pretty quick. Everyone is scoffing at the idea of Cleveland winning the division, and they're probably correct. This start has shades of 2001 when the roles were reversed and a not-quite-ready-for-primetime Twins squad got wore down by the Tribe down the stretch. But if things go on much longer, and the deficit grows much wider, then we're going to be moving into historic comeback territory here. Even a team with a few historic comebacks under it's belt would be unwise to tempt fate in that department.
Panic? Not quite yet, but that could just be the NHL and NBA playoffs providing a distraction. At the moment, another 'p' word better sums up my feelings, because I'm mighty perplexed. I think most fans saw the holes that had developed coming into the season, and knew a return to the playoffs would hinge on the organization's ability to patch them as things wore on. But starting May as one of the worst teams in baseball? I mean this is the Twins, the team that's fit the Chinese food analogy over the years, even when they're bad, they're still pretty good.
I don't even want to think about how I'm going to pass the time in July if this ship doesn't get righted...
- P. Voltin, 4/4/11
It was just over a month ago when I penned this tounge-in-cheek statement about the Twins rough first series of the year. Tonight the team plays it's 33rd game, officially putting the first 1/5th of the campaign in the books. Everyone is doing the obligatory "lotta season left" disclaimer in their discussions, but without exception, every one of those discussions is pondering how things got this bad.
The Twins now sit 9 1/2 games behind Cleveland, trailing KC by 5 and Detroit by 3 1/2, with the White Sox similar meltdown being the only thing keeping them out of the cellar. As ugly as those standings are, they don't begin to convey how bad things have truly looked here. Minnesota isn't just losing games, they're getting worked over, with a -63 run differential that's the worst in baseball by a wide margin. The team's health has been a constant problem, and the players that have been able to stay on the field aren't offering much relief.
Pick a stat, any stat, and you're not going to like what you see. 30th in runs scored. A .230 batting average that's good for 27th in the majors. Unable to get on base to scratch out runs (30th in on-base %) and unable to get the big hits to compensate for lack of base runners (29th in slugging %). If the offense were the only problem, that would offer a bit of hope, but with the pitching staff only able to muster a 4.73 ERA (28th) and 15 quality starts (27th), there's no way to get by with that kind of production at the plate.
The whole thing has been so terrible, it has me imagining a conversation between Ron Gardenhire and his pitching coach that's straight out of Bull Durham:
Gardy: "Andy, what's our record?"
Andy: "12-20"
Gardy: "How the hell did we ever win 12?"
Andy: "It's a miracle."
Gardy: "It's a miracle."
Because odd as it sounds, looking at those numbers, things should probably be even worse. The list of well-copensated players on this team offering nothing was explored by Michael Rand in the Strib today, and it's a daunting list. Other than 2011 Twins My Guy Jason Kubel and Denard Span, nobody is doing anything close to what was anticipated. I'll give Danny Valencia partial credit, leading the team in RBIs is nice, but starts looking closer to opportunism than excellence when his .230 average is factored in.
Sure a lot of that can be blamed on injuries, but what about the guys that are playing? With Span and Kubel as the only two regulars hitting over .250, it's really not overstating things to say that every other player on the team is part of the problem. Okay, a couple of the pitchers have been decent as well, with Scott Baker (amazingly) leading the way, but that's it, the entire list.
With 130 more games to be played, there is more than enough time for a turnaround, but the team had better start showing some signs of life pretty quick. Everyone is scoffing at the idea of Cleveland winning the division, and they're probably correct. This start has shades of 2001 when the roles were reversed and a not-quite-ready-for-primetime Twins squad got wore down by the Tribe down the stretch. But if things go on much longer, and the deficit grows much wider, then we're going to be moving into historic comeback territory here. Even a team with a few historic comebacks under it's belt would be unwise to tempt fate in that department.
Panic? Not quite yet, but that could just be the NHL and NBA playoffs providing a distraction. At the moment, another 'p' word better sums up my feelings, because I'm mighty perplexed. I think most fans saw the holes that had developed coming into the season, and knew a return to the playoffs would hinge on the organization's ability to patch them as things wore on. But starting May as one of the worst teams in baseball? I mean this is the Twins, the team that's fit the Chinese food analogy over the years, even when they're bad, they're still pretty good.
I don't even want to think about how I'm going to pass the time in July if this ship doesn't get righted...
Friday, April 15, 2011
Reverse jinx time!
Let's see here.
Stumble out of the gate with a poor record, big free agent acquisition breaks his leg, bullpen is shakier than Michael J. Fox on a vibrating bed, franchise player being paid the GDP of a small country going on DL...I should officially be at DEFCON 3 on the Twins season. But oddly, I am not.
Maybe it's the lingering bitterness from the hockey game that shall not be named a week ago distracting me (still have about 3-4 moments a day where I well up with rage and want to punch something, yet no punches thrown to date, feel I deserve credit for this, would've taken the news that I had inoperable brain cancer better than I took that game). Maybe it's the fact that the Twins always seem to find a way around this stuff. Could be the start of the NHL playoffs blunting the force of these early shots, or perhaps I've just been beaten down by all the losing. Whatever the reason, it's an unlikely place for me to find myself, and although it's far from the start we'd hoped for, it's still April and there's no reason to panic...yet.
Now I don't want to go down the road of countering every negative item from the first two weeks of the season with a piece of optimism, because there's been a dangerous negative precedent set in that regard. Way back in July, I tried to quell the gnawing doubts that were accumulating about the Vikings season by offering points of hope. We all know how that turned out, so I shan't tempt fate by going down that path again.
But I will bring up the one salient stat here that requires no analysis to back it: 6 out of 9
That's the Twins performance in winning the Central Division since 2002. Not to mention that one year they lost in a one-game playoff. Now we can debate how much those division titles are actually worth, and I'd readily admit that there's no reason to believe the postseason will hold better prospects this year, but the bottom line is things have been worse and ended up better in years past. Again hearkening back to last summer, I gave up the team for dead on July 16th. They then proceeded to run away with things.
So perhaps that's all that required here, and the Twins are simply the yin to the Vikings yang (please, no Visanthe Shiancoe jokes). As we've all seen, the Vikes never collapse until even the most hard-bitten and fatalistic fan (that being me) is roped into believing. They thrive on raising you up before they crush your spirit into smithereens. Could it be that the Twins are their polar opposite, and won't turn on the jets until they've been written off? If so, I'll do my part, there is no way the Twins will win this division.
Not enought juice there? Okay, once more with feeling:
THIS TEAM STINKS! THEY CAN'T HIT, HAVE NO BULLPEN, AND THEIR TWO FRANCHISE PLAYERS ARE CHINA DOLLS! ANY MEMBER OF THE PITCHING STAFF COULD GET SHELLED AT ANY TIME, AND OUR "ACE" HAS ALL THE FOCUS AND MENTAL TOUGHNESS OF A TEENAGE GIRL! THE ONE THING TO LOOK FORWARD TO THIS SEASON IS SHEDDING $32 MILLION WORTH OF GARBAGE NAMED NATHAN, CAPPS AND CUDDYER! IT'S OVER, TRADE EVERYBODY AND REBUILD!
That should do the trick.
Stumble out of the gate with a poor record, big free agent acquisition breaks his leg, bullpen is shakier than Michael J. Fox on a vibrating bed, franchise player being paid the GDP of a small country going on DL...I should officially be at DEFCON 3 on the Twins season. But oddly, I am not.
Maybe it's the lingering bitterness from the hockey game that shall not be named a week ago distracting me (still have about 3-4 moments a day where I well up with rage and want to punch something, yet no punches thrown to date, feel I deserve credit for this, would've taken the news that I had inoperable brain cancer better than I took that game). Maybe it's the fact that the Twins always seem to find a way around this stuff. Could be the start of the NHL playoffs blunting the force of these early shots, or perhaps I've just been beaten down by all the losing. Whatever the reason, it's an unlikely place for me to find myself, and although it's far from the start we'd hoped for, it's still April and there's no reason to panic...yet.
Now I don't want to go down the road of countering every negative item from the first two weeks of the season with a piece of optimism, because there's been a dangerous negative precedent set in that regard. Way back in July, I tried to quell the gnawing doubts that were accumulating about the Vikings season by offering points of hope. We all know how that turned out, so I shan't tempt fate by going down that path again.
But I will bring up the one salient stat here that requires no analysis to back it: 6 out of 9
That's the Twins performance in winning the Central Division since 2002. Not to mention that one year they lost in a one-game playoff. Now we can debate how much those division titles are actually worth, and I'd readily admit that there's no reason to believe the postseason will hold better prospects this year, but the bottom line is things have been worse and ended up better in years past. Again hearkening back to last summer, I gave up the team for dead on July 16th. They then proceeded to run away with things.
So perhaps that's all that required here, and the Twins are simply the yin to the Vikings yang (please, no Visanthe Shiancoe jokes). As we've all seen, the Vikes never collapse until even the most hard-bitten and fatalistic fan (that being me) is roped into believing. They thrive on raising you up before they crush your spirit into smithereens. Could it be that the Twins are their polar opposite, and won't turn on the jets until they've been written off? If so, I'll do my part, there is no way the Twins will win this division.
Not enought juice there? Okay, once more with feeling:
THIS TEAM STINKS! THEY CAN'T HIT, HAVE NO BULLPEN, AND THEIR TWO FRANCHISE PLAYERS ARE CHINA DOLLS! ANY MEMBER OF THE PITCHING STAFF COULD GET SHELLED AT ANY TIME, AND OUR "ACE" HAS ALL THE FOCUS AND MENTAL TOUGHNESS OF A TEENAGE GIRL! THE ONE THING TO LOOK FORWARD TO THIS SEASON IS SHEDDING $32 MILLION WORTH OF GARBAGE NAMED NATHAN, CAPPS AND CUDDYER! IT'S OVER, TRADE EVERYBODY AND REBUILD!
That should do the trick.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
That sucked
I was led to believe that an entertaining evening of sports was on tap yesterday. I was misinformed.
First it was March Madness ending with a thud, but it was fitting that the worst championship game in years cap off one of the more lackluster tournaments. Sure there were exciting moments, but when you play 30-some games in a three week span, you're bound to get at least a few of those. I'm not saying we need to cancel the tourney here, but the growing randomness of it all is making the regular season increasingly meaningless. The 9th place Big East team just won the national title in a Final Four that featured zero #1 or #2 seeds, is this a good thing? There's something to be said for getting hot at the right time, but also for the 4 1/2 months of competition that preceeds the tournament.
I know three things:
College basketball needs more upperclassmen to stick around
I definitely do not want to see the tourney expand to 96-team
The Gophers must be worse than ever imagined to miss the NIT in this era of college hoops
Also failing to add much intrigue were the Twins, who predictably lost to the Yankees last night, but not in a fun way that would allow me to go on a tirade. Had the perfect Scott Baker rant teed up after he allowed two-run bombs in each of the first two innings, then something very strange happened...Baker began pitching capably. Now we've seen this before in spurts, but usually not in the middle of a meltdown. Usually if Moonshot starts bad, he stays that way, but last night was an exception. At any rate, the Twins still lost (I'm trying to be fair here, but don't you need the $23-Million Dollar Man to deliver in that spot?), but Baker's performance robbed me of a chance to question the decision to start him in the first place.
The thinking going in was, we're probably going to lose to Sabathia on Tuesday anyway, so why not start Duensing in game one and wave the white flag by trotting out Baker for the second? As an added bonus, I'd get to use my 'Bake and The Fatman' joke. That opinion got turned on it's ear when the Achillies heel ended up not being the pitching, but the Twins failure to get hits off a guy named after a car. Chevy Nova looks like a decent pitcher, but he's barely more than a rookie, and some of our seasoned veteran hitters needed to make some things happen. It was good to see Baker pitch somewhat competently, good to see Morneau and Thome getting into a couple, good to see T-Nish deliver a big hit, but it's still just another mark in the 'L' column. Keep repeating after me, "we never beat the Yankees", "I expect nothing", "let's just try to take away a few positives". Three more cracks to go.
Fortunately, the main event of the week is still on tap, hopefully college hockey can pick up college basketball's slack. It's almost Frozen Four time, and I've got thoughts aplenty, stay tuned.
First it was March Madness ending with a thud, but it was fitting that the worst championship game in years cap off one of the more lackluster tournaments. Sure there were exciting moments, but when you play 30-some games in a three week span, you're bound to get at least a few of those. I'm not saying we need to cancel the tourney here, but the growing randomness of it all is making the regular season increasingly meaningless. The 9th place Big East team just won the national title in a Final Four that featured zero #1 or #2 seeds, is this a good thing? There's something to be said for getting hot at the right time, but also for the 4 1/2 months of competition that preceeds the tournament.
I know three things:
College basketball needs more upperclassmen to stick around
I definitely do not want to see the tourney expand to 96-team
The Gophers must be worse than ever imagined to miss the NIT in this era of college hoops
Also failing to add much intrigue were the Twins, who predictably lost to the Yankees last night, but not in a fun way that would allow me to go on a tirade. Had the perfect Scott Baker rant teed up after he allowed two-run bombs in each of the first two innings, then something very strange happened...Baker began pitching capably. Now we've seen this before in spurts, but usually not in the middle of a meltdown. Usually if Moonshot starts bad, he stays that way, but last night was an exception. At any rate, the Twins still lost (I'm trying to be fair here, but don't you need the $23-Million Dollar Man to deliver in that spot?), but Baker's performance robbed me of a chance to question the decision to start him in the first place.
The thinking going in was, we're probably going to lose to Sabathia on Tuesday anyway, so why not start Duensing in game one and wave the white flag by trotting out Baker for the second? As an added bonus, I'd get to use my 'Bake and The Fatman' joke. That opinion got turned on it's ear when the Achillies heel ended up not being the pitching, but the Twins failure to get hits off a guy named after a car. Chevy Nova looks like a decent pitcher, but he's barely more than a rookie, and some of our seasoned veteran hitters needed to make some things happen. It was good to see Baker pitch somewhat competently, good to see Morneau and Thome getting into a couple, good to see T-Nish deliver a big hit, but it's still just another mark in the 'L' column. Keep repeating after me, "we never beat the Yankees", "I expect nothing", "let's just try to take away a few positives". Three more cracks to go.
Fortunately, the main event of the week is still on tap, hopefully college hockey can pick up college basketball's slack. It's almost Frozen Four time, and I've got thoughts aplenty, stay tuned.
Monday, April 4, 2011
The Tom Kelly "Even Keel" Approach
Lousy weekend north of the border, as the Twins opened up the season by getting shelled, backed up by getting, in the words of Harry Doyle, "one goddamn hit" on Saturday, then eeked out a tight game on Sunday. The pitching was poor, fielding sloppy, and hitting nonexistent. Now you might think a superstitious person like me, who reads way too much into things and overreacts at every turn, would be freaking out a bit today. That's not the case, for a variety of reasons.
First off, the Twins always lose to Toronto, particularly in Toronto. The Blue Jays won 6 of 9 games between the two clubs last season, including a 11-2 pounding of Carl Pavano that looked remarkably similar to Friday night's opener. Was I perturbed by the fact that they went down 4-0 in the first inning, en route to a 13-3 shellacking in the season opener? You betcha, but that was more about the anticipation of game one, and feeling robbed when it turned into a dud.
So now it's off to New York, and the expectation of returning home Friday with at best a 2-5 record. Again, losing 3 of 4 at Yankee Stadium will be nothing new, so nothing to get bent out of shape over. This is not a rationalization of failure, simply an acknowledgement that things might take a bit of time to come together this season. The middle infield is unfamiliar, the first baseman and closer are returning from injuries and a little off, the pitching staff isn't quite in rhythm. Basically, the same issues that a lot of teams face early on. If the Twins are still behind Kansas City in the standings a month from now, then I'll panic.
But just because I'm not agitated about baseball doesn't mean I'm not agitated. Today it's the NFL draft. Not that I have a problem with the draft itself, typically it's one of my favorite events of the year. This year, with the Vikings holding a high pick, should be more entertaining than usual, if only I could get past the black labor cloud hanging over the league at the moment. Watching a bunch of guys get drafted is only intriguing because you get to speculate on seeing them play in a few months. Without the promise of a season on the horizon? Well they might as well be discussing the WNBA.
Just another reminder how the most popular and profitable sports league in the history of this country is killing the golden goose. I'm sure that at some point the draft chatter will suck me in, but each time it's come up so far, I've disgustedly changed the station. It's bad enough they moved the damn thing to Thursday night, now they don't even have the decency to ensure there will be a next season, before hyping the new additions that will be a part of it. Maybe.
First off, the Twins always lose to Toronto, particularly in Toronto. The Blue Jays won 6 of 9 games between the two clubs last season, including a 11-2 pounding of Carl Pavano that looked remarkably similar to Friday night's opener. Was I perturbed by the fact that they went down 4-0 in the first inning, en route to a 13-3 shellacking in the season opener? You betcha, but that was more about the anticipation of game one, and feeling robbed when it turned into a dud.
So now it's off to New York, and the expectation of returning home Friday with at best a 2-5 record. Again, losing 3 of 4 at Yankee Stadium will be nothing new, so nothing to get bent out of shape over. This is not a rationalization of failure, simply an acknowledgement that things might take a bit of time to come together this season. The middle infield is unfamiliar, the first baseman and closer are returning from injuries and a little off, the pitching staff isn't quite in rhythm. Basically, the same issues that a lot of teams face early on. If the Twins are still behind Kansas City in the standings a month from now, then I'll panic.
But just because I'm not agitated about baseball doesn't mean I'm not agitated. Today it's the NFL draft. Not that I have a problem with the draft itself, typically it's one of my favorite events of the year. This year, with the Vikings holding a high pick, should be more entertaining than usual, if only I could get past the black labor cloud hanging over the league at the moment. Watching a bunch of guys get drafted is only intriguing because you get to speculate on seeing them play in a few months. Without the promise of a season on the horizon? Well they might as well be discussing the WNBA.
Just another reminder how the most popular and profitable sports league in the history of this country is killing the golden goose. I'm sure that at some point the draft chatter will suck me in, but each time it's come up so far, I've disgustedly changed the station. It's bad enough they moved the damn thing to Thursday night, now they don't even have the decency to ensure there will be a next season, before hyping the new additions that will be a part of it. Maybe.
Friday, April 1, 2011
Baseball!!!
The lack of star power in the Final Four is leaving me cold, the NHL playoffs haven't started and Frozen Four is still a week away. Thank goodness today is the official start of Twins baseball!
As usual, the Twins open the season with some question marks, and some division rivals who have made upgrades. Key losses in the bullpen and middle infield have raised doubt over whether the hometown nine can once again beat out the White Sox and Tigers for the division crown.
Now normally I'm a pretty dedicated pessimist, and this season it seems a lot of folks agree with that assessment. The Whities picked up a slugger in Adam Dunn this offseason, the Tigers similarly upgraded their offense by adding Victor Martinez. The Twins? Well they mostly just watched things happen, choosing to go their typical route of "looking at internal options" to patch the holes in their roster.
In the past this do nothing strategy would be driving me nuts, but in the era of the $100+ million payroll Twins, it's a little tougher to get bent out of shape. Next offseason will have some major turnover, dollar-wise, with Joe Nathan and Michael Cuddyer hitting free agency. There will also be key decisions to be made on players like Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano, potential stars who need to back up their strong performances from last season. Against this backdrop, I don't have much of a problem with the conservative approach. The team is in a good position to figure out who it's future cornerstones are, and act accordingly.
But the bigger factor is, the Twins just keep delivering. Every year we read about the strides Chicago or Detroit has made, yet almost every year, it's the Twins who are left standing at the end. As I've said before, if not for the White Sox title (admittedly huge), this "rivalry" wouldn't have much intrigue. Even my Chicken Little self has finally seen enough to give the Twins the benefit of the doubt.
So now, for posterity, the 2011 Twins Over/Unders:
Division
Wins………90 - Over
Place……..2nd - Over
Seems to take somewhere in the 90-94 win neighborhood to take this thing, I'll pencil the Twins in for 92-70 and another division crown. As always, the White Sox look better on paper, but that's been the case most years. A healthy Jake Peavy could be a game-changer, but when you're in year 3 of saying that, it may no longer be a factor worth considering. 2nd Place - Chicago (90-72) 3rd Place - Detroit (86-76)
Pitching Wins
Liriano……..15 - Over
Pavano….....14 - Push
Duensing…...12 - Over
Baker……...10 - Over
I'll clock in at 17-9 for Frankie, 14-14 for Pavano (the year I expected in 2010), a 14-10 record for Duensing and 13-10 for the Butcher, er Baker, in a bounce back year. I'll also predict multiple 500-foot home runs hit by Adam Dunn off Moonshot Scott.
Batting Average
Mauer……..330 - Under
Nishioka…...300 - Over
Valencia…...290 - Under
Span……….275 - Over
I'm seeing a bit more power at the expense of average from Mauer this season. Probably buying into the hype on Nishioka too much, but the guy seems to have Ichiro-like contact ability, so I think he'll succeed. Valencia will have a sophmore slump and Span will come out of his, just seems to be the way the game ebbs and flows.
Home Runs
Mauer………15 - Over
Morneau…....30 - Over
Delmon……..25 - Push
Kubel…….....25 - Over
None of the overs will be very far over, 2-3 at most, but I like the power to start coming out a bit more this year. Sure Target Field is insanely tough to hit the ball out of, but with a year of experience, I think the long ball numbers improve.
Games played
Morneau…..130 - Over
Pure optimism
Saves
Nathan..........30 - Under
Something just seems off here
Thome hits HR #600 (currently at 589)…..June 15th - Over
Here's hoping I'm right on most of these, if so it will be one heck of a fun season, Go Twins!!!
As usual, the Twins open the season with some question marks, and some division rivals who have made upgrades. Key losses in the bullpen and middle infield have raised doubt over whether the hometown nine can once again beat out the White Sox and Tigers for the division crown.
Now normally I'm a pretty dedicated pessimist, and this season it seems a lot of folks agree with that assessment. The Whities picked up a slugger in Adam Dunn this offseason, the Tigers similarly upgraded their offense by adding Victor Martinez. The Twins? Well they mostly just watched things happen, choosing to go their typical route of "looking at internal options" to patch the holes in their roster.
In the past this do nothing strategy would be driving me nuts, but in the era of the $100+ million payroll Twins, it's a little tougher to get bent out of shape. Next offseason will have some major turnover, dollar-wise, with Joe Nathan and Michael Cuddyer hitting free agency. There will also be key decisions to be made on players like Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano, potential stars who need to back up their strong performances from last season. Against this backdrop, I don't have much of a problem with the conservative approach. The team is in a good position to figure out who it's future cornerstones are, and act accordingly.
But the bigger factor is, the Twins just keep delivering. Every year we read about the strides Chicago or Detroit has made, yet almost every year, it's the Twins who are left standing at the end. As I've said before, if not for the White Sox title (admittedly huge), this "rivalry" wouldn't have much intrigue. Even my Chicken Little self has finally seen enough to give the Twins the benefit of the doubt.
So now, for posterity, the 2011 Twins Over/Unders:
Division
Wins………90 - Over
Place……..2nd - Over
Seems to take somewhere in the 90-94 win neighborhood to take this thing, I'll pencil the Twins in for 92-70 and another division crown. As always, the White Sox look better on paper, but that's been the case most years. A healthy Jake Peavy could be a game-changer, but when you're in year 3 of saying that, it may no longer be a factor worth considering. 2nd Place - Chicago (90-72) 3rd Place - Detroit (86-76)
Pitching Wins
Liriano……..15 - Over
Pavano….....14 - Push
Duensing…...12 - Over
Baker……...10 - Over
I'll clock in at 17-9 for Frankie, 14-14 for Pavano (the year I expected in 2010), a 14-10 record for Duensing and 13-10 for the Butcher, er Baker, in a bounce back year. I'll also predict multiple 500-foot home runs hit by Adam Dunn off Moonshot Scott.
Batting Average
Mauer……..330 - Under
Nishioka…...300 - Over
Valencia…...290 - Under
Span……….275 - Over
I'm seeing a bit more power at the expense of average from Mauer this season. Probably buying into the hype on Nishioka too much, but the guy seems to have Ichiro-like contact ability, so I think he'll succeed. Valencia will have a sophmore slump and Span will come out of his, just seems to be the way the game ebbs and flows.
Home Runs
Mauer………15 - Over
Morneau…....30 - Over
Delmon……..25 - Push
Kubel…….....25 - Over
None of the overs will be very far over, 2-3 at most, but I like the power to start coming out a bit more this year. Sure Target Field is insanely tough to hit the ball out of, but with a year of experience, I think the long ball numbers improve.
Games played
Morneau…..130 - Over
Pure optimism
Saves
Nathan..........30 - Under
Something just seems off here
Thome hits HR #600 (currently at 589)…..June 15th - Over
Here's hoping I'm right on most of these, if so it will be one heck of a fun season, Go Twins!!!
Friday, September 24, 2010
Get your priorities straight
Far too much media attention is being paid this week to the Vikings rough start, and not nearly enough to yet another Twins triumph. The only team that ever delivers in this town did so once again by clinching their 6th division title in 9 seasons two nights ago, with two weeks and 11 games to spare. It wasn't nearly as exciting as last year's epic clinch in Game 163, but not having to play immediately after staggering off a plane half-buzzed should give them a far better chance of advancing.
And they had better advance.
Because now that the glee has worn off, there are only the prospects of securing home field (big deal, but almost done) and baseball's best record (not that big a deal) to keep people entertained. There is also a whooooole lot of time for people to rest players, get the rotation set and have people pick at nits. There will be no easy excuses this time, even if it's the big, bad Yankees who show up at Target Field for the first round. The Twins pitching may not be ideally suited for the postseason, but it was good enough to propel them to the best record in baseball over the last 3 months, so no passes will be given there.
It might be a bit strong to say a win is expected, given the history with the tough teams they'll be facing, but it's not too strong to say a loss would be profoundly disappointing. At this time last year, nearly everyone who watched this team thought they were dead, or at least very close. It was an undermanned squad relying on guile and pluck, who barely eeked out their postseason spot. Losing to the Yankees was not only expected, but almost acceptable, give the energy expended to fight through the regular season shorthanded. This situation, from the payroll, to the roster, to basically everything other than the lack of Justin Morneau, is completely different.
Thanks for an awesome season Twins, you're the only team I root for who consistently meets or exceeds expectations, you make the long, boring summer tolerable and I love you for it.
I just need a little more.
Onto this week's football picks, time to get back on the right side of .500:
Cincinnati -3.5 over CAROLINA - The Jimmy Clausen Era officially kicks off in Carolina, as well as in my fantasy football dynasty league. (For those of you that don't know, dynasty leagues are where you keep your entire roster from year-to-year, in order to pretend you're an NFL GM. This leads to situations in which you're breaking down the 3rd round of the NFL draft in mid-July, so you can find the next potential star who you're going to stash on your bench for 3 years. Shockingly, as cool as it sounds, discussing this in public is not a good way to pick up women. Again, the title of the blog is about more than sports teams.) To borrow a line from Eastbound & Down, my current favorite HBO series which resumes this Sunday: Stafford, you're ****ing out, Clausen's ****ing in!
NEW ORLEANS -4 over Atlanta - Waffled a bit here, and if the Falcons were playing at home I'd pick them to win outright. But given that the Saints just came off a tough road game in San Fran, where the conditions are never favorable if you're a high-flying passing attack, I see them being sharp this time around. Haven't seen the best offense in the league click a whole lot so far, but it's bound to happen soon, although Atlanta's possession running game is the best chance to keep them in check.
Detroit +11 over MINNESOTA - Don't think the Lions will win outright, but that's a lot of points for a team that has put up 19 total through two games. The Vikings offense should get untracked here and make some plays, because the Lions are still brutal on defense, but a couple of stops and a long screen-pass TD from Jahvid Best could be all the Lions need to make this too close for most Purple fans comfort.
BALTIMORE -11 over Cleveland - Lotta points here too, but the Browns are s****y, there hasn't been a more aptly named team since I christened a fantasy team The Travshamockery halfway through 2007.
Tennessee +3 over NEW YORK GIANTS - Awhile back I got sick of the "Life is like a box of chocolates" line to describe unpredictable situations, frankly the Forrest Gump drawl was the only thing that made it fun to say in the first place. But it was still a necessary, as we need a go-to phrase for conveying the unknown nature of some things. So to that end, I've updated the phrase: "Life is like a Thai hooker, you never know what you're going to get". And this my friends is a classic Thai hooker game, no idea what we've got here, so I'm taking the points.
Dallas +3 over Houston - The amazing thing about this season's first two weeks is that the Vikings aren't even the NFC playoff team that's in the worst shape. Sure Dallas has got a better offense at the moment and I'd give them the nod if a rematch of last year's divisional round game was happening, but unfortunately the schedule is doing them no favors. Going on the road to face the Texans is certainly no picnic, but I have to believe the Cowboys will find a way to win here, just too much riding on it for them not to. Their season is dead and coach probably fired at 0-3,if they've got any heart at all, they come to play this Sunday.
Pittsburgh -3 over TAMPA BAY - Lot of consternation here, and I can't believe I'm picking either of these teams to go 3-0. I mean at some point this QB thing has to catch up with Pittsburgh, right? If Charlie Batch wins on the road, it's officially time to put things to the ultimate test and dust of Kordell Stewart for next week? We're talking that level of ridiculousness here. Would I actually gamble on this game? No way, no how, but expecting the Steelers to score a defensive TD off a mistake by an inexperienced QB is like expecting a Nicholas Cage movie to suck, I like those odds.
NEW ENGLAND -14.5 over Buffalo - The Pats D looked lousy last week, and Buffalo kept it close for a half in Green Bay, but I see New England taking out some offensive frustration and posting a big number in this one. If the game was in Buffalo, you could sell me on a scrappy effort to keep the margin under double digits, but the Bills offense trying to operate on the road is something I want no part of.
San Francisco -3 over KANSAS CITY - Speaking of venting frustrations, this will be an angry Niners team on a mission, if I were Matt Cassel, I'd be thinking about upping the life insurance this week.
Washington -4 over ST. LOUIS - The Skins pass D was shredded last week, but that was Houston and this is St. Louis. On the bright side for the Rams, Sam Bradford is playing decently and, more importantly, still walking. So far, so good.
Philadelphia -3 over JACKSONVILLE - Not much to like about the Jags at the moment, including the fact that their team name practically begs the derisive use of the term Jag-offs by fans when the team is struggling. Here I thought Queens was a hanging curve, this one's slow-pitch softball.
San Diego -6 over SEATTLE - Maybe the Seahawks are good at home, probably doesn't make a difference against the Chargers though. It's a real treat when the season matching up the AFC and NFC Wests rolls around, especially if you're a fan of the late-afternoon nap.
Oakland +4.5 over ARIZONA - Like the Oakland D stepping up big here, can Bruce Gradkowski do enough with an easy schedule to make the Raiders intriguing? Was trying to think of a good QB who's last name started with P, so I could dub Gradkowski the Polish ______, but all I can think of is a first name in Peyton Manning. The Polish Peyton has a bit of a ring to it, but people would think he was a halfback. Oh well.
Indianapolis -6 over DENVER - The Broncos could be missing one or both starting cornerbacks this week, I don't have to tell you the Colts are bad team to be up against in that situation.
New York Jets +2 over MIAMI - No Revis is a problem, but I think the Jets D can compensate, have still seen nothing out of Chad Henne to back up the opinions (mine and many others) that he'd have a breakout year with Brandon Marshall to throw to. Long season, but I don't think he gets it going this week.
Green Bay -3 over CHICAGO - Love this as a Monday Night matchup, Soldier Field can be a quirky place to play, and the Bears are 2-0, but I watched them play Detroit week one, and they're not on the Packers level. Bloom comes off the Jay Cutler rose this week, perhaps only temporarily, but in significant fashion. I'm setting the INT over/under at 2 1/2, which way are you going?
And they had better advance.
Because now that the glee has worn off, there are only the prospects of securing home field (big deal, but almost done) and baseball's best record (not that big a deal) to keep people entertained. There is also a whooooole lot of time for people to rest players, get the rotation set and have people pick at nits. There will be no easy excuses this time, even if it's the big, bad Yankees who show up at Target Field for the first round. The Twins pitching may not be ideally suited for the postseason, but it was good enough to propel them to the best record in baseball over the last 3 months, so no passes will be given there.
It might be a bit strong to say a win is expected, given the history with the tough teams they'll be facing, but it's not too strong to say a loss would be profoundly disappointing. At this time last year, nearly everyone who watched this team thought they were dead, or at least very close. It was an undermanned squad relying on guile and pluck, who barely eeked out their postseason spot. Losing to the Yankees was not only expected, but almost acceptable, give the energy expended to fight through the regular season shorthanded. This situation, from the payroll, to the roster, to basically everything other than the lack of Justin Morneau, is completely different.
Thanks for an awesome season Twins, you're the only team I root for who consistently meets or exceeds expectations, you make the long, boring summer tolerable and I love you for it.
I just need a little more.
Onto this week's football picks, time to get back on the right side of .500:
Cincinnati -3.5 over CAROLINA - The Jimmy Clausen Era officially kicks off in Carolina, as well as in my fantasy football dynasty league. (For those of you that don't know, dynasty leagues are where you keep your entire roster from year-to-year, in order to pretend you're an NFL GM. This leads to situations in which you're breaking down the 3rd round of the NFL draft in mid-July, so you can find the next potential star who you're going to stash on your bench for 3 years. Shockingly, as cool as it sounds, discussing this in public is not a good way to pick up women. Again, the title of the blog is about more than sports teams.) To borrow a line from Eastbound & Down, my current favorite HBO series which resumes this Sunday: Stafford, you're ****ing out, Clausen's ****ing in!
NEW ORLEANS -4 over Atlanta - Waffled a bit here, and if the Falcons were playing at home I'd pick them to win outright. But given that the Saints just came off a tough road game in San Fran, where the conditions are never favorable if you're a high-flying passing attack, I see them being sharp this time around. Haven't seen the best offense in the league click a whole lot so far, but it's bound to happen soon, although Atlanta's possession running game is the best chance to keep them in check.
Detroit +11 over MINNESOTA - Don't think the Lions will win outright, but that's a lot of points for a team that has put up 19 total through two games. The Vikings offense should get untracked here and make some plays, because the Lions are still brutal on defense, but a couple of stops and a long screen-pass TD from Jahvid Best could be all the Lions need to make this too close for most Purple fans comfort.
BALTIMORE -11 over Cleveland - Lotta points here too, but the Browns are s****y, there hasn't been a more aptly named team since I christened a fantasy team The Travshamockery halfway through 2007.
Tennessee +3 over NEW YORK GIANTS - Awhile back I got sick of the "Life is like a box of chocolates" line to describe unpredictable situations, frankly the Forrest Gump drawl was the only thing that made it fun to say in the first place. But it was still a necessary, as we need a go-to phrase for conveying the unknown nature of some things. So to that end, I've updated the phrase: "Life is like a Thai hooker, you never know what you're going to get". And this my friends is a classic Thai hooker game, no idea what we've got here, so I'm taking the points.
Dallas +3 over Houston - The amazing thing about this season's first two weeks is that the Vikings aren't even the NFC playoff team that's in the worst shape. Sure Dallas has got a better offense at the moment and I'd give them the nod if a rematch of last year's divisional round game was happening, but unfortunately the schedule is doing them no favors. Going on the road to face the Texans is certainly no picnic, but I have to believe the Cowboys will find a way to win here, just too much riding on it for them not to. Their season is dead and coach probably fired at 0-3,if they've got any heart at all, they come to play this Sunday.
Pittsburgh -3 over TAMPA BAY - Lot of consternation here, and I can't believe I'm picking either of these teams to go 3-0. I mean at some point this QB thing has to catch up with Pittsburgh, right? If Charlie Batch wins on the road, it's officially time to put things to the ultimate test and dust of Kordell Stewart for next week? We're talking that level of ridiculousness here. Would I actually gamble on this game? No way, no how, but expecting the Steelers to score a defensive TD off a mistake by an inexperienced QB is like expecting a Nicholas Cage movie to suck, I like those odds.
NEW ENGLAND -14.5 over Buffalo - The Pats D looked lousy last week, and Buffalo kept it close for a half in Green Bay, but I see New England taking out some offensive frustration and posting a big number in this one. If the game was in Buffalo, you could sell me on a scrappy effort to keep the margin under double digits, but the Bills offense trying to operate on the road is something I want no part of.
San Francisco -3 over KANSAS CITY - Speaking of venting frustrations, this will be an angry Niners team on a mission, if I were Matt Cassel, I'd be thinking about upping the life insurance this week.
Washington -4 over ST. LOUIS - The Skins pass D was shredded last week, but that was Houston and this is St. Louis. On the bright side for the Rams, Sam Bradford is playing decently and, more importantly, still walking. So far, so good.
Philadelphia -3 over JACKSONVILLE - Not much to like about the Jags at the moment, including the fact that their team name practically begs the derisive use of the term Jag-offs by fans when the team is struggling. Here I thought Queens was a hanging curve, this one's slow-pitch softball.
San Diego -6 over SEATTLE - Maybe the Seahawks are good at home, probably doesn't make a difference against the Chargers though. It's a real treat when the season matching up the AFC and NFC Wests rolls around, especially if you're a fan of the late-afternoon nap.
Oakland +4.5 over ARIZONA - Like the Oakland D stepping up big here, can Bruce Gradkowski do enough with an easy schedule to make the Raiders intriguing? Was trying to think of a good QB who's last name started with P, so I could dub Gradkowski the Polish ______, but all I can think of is a first name in Peyton Manning. The Polish Peyton has a bit of a ring to it, but people would think he was a halfback. Oh well.
Indianapolis -6 over DENVER - The Broncos could be missing one or both starting cornerbacks this week, I don't have to tell you the Colts are bad team to be up against in that situation.
New York Jets +2 over MIAMI - No Revis is a problem, but I think the Jets D can compensate, have still seen nothing out of Chad Henne to back up the opinions (mine and many others) that he'd have a breakout year with Brandon Marshall to throw to. Long season, but I don't think he gets it going this week.
Green Bay -3 over CHICAGO - Love this as a Monday Night matchup, Soldier Field can be a quirky place to play, and the Bears are 2-0, but I watched them play Detroit week one, and they're not on the Packers level. Bloom comes off the Jay Cutler rose this week, perhaps only temporarily, but in significant fashion. I'm setting the INT over/under at 2 1/2, which way are you going?
Friday, September 17, 2010
Another rabbit out of the hat
First order of business is a congratulations to the Twins, who have made things academic in the AL Central with their sweep of the White Sox this week. Going into the series it looked like one win would be good enough, two wins would spell the beginning of the end and three would be certain doom for the Pale Hose. Fortunately the Twins got all three and with 90% of precincts reporting, Loserville News is ready to call the Central race for the hometown nine.
It's been another impressive regular season, and big props must go out to the entire organization, with the way they've been able to plug holes and battle back from adversity time after time. From losing their closer in spring training to losing their best hitter at midseason, the Twins have done what they always seem to do, find a way to keep winning games. Although I gave up on them roughly 73 times during the course of the season, I never stopped watching and hoping they'd find their way. Now that they have, reeling off the best record in baseball since the All-Star break, it's good to look back on the highs and lows of the season, and even better to look forward to the possibilities the future holds.
Because while all this winning has been great fun, there's still a big question to be answered: Are the Twins a good team, or just the best of a bad division? Sure they're not paired up with a bunch of total stiffs, but at the same time, the axis of power in baseball lies to the East (yes, I invoked that Germany-Japan WWII imagery on purpose), and it must be defeated before you can truly call this season a success. As I've said many times, division titles beat being a Royals fan, but at some point the promise of one of these seasons need to be realized. For the moment, the lead is at 9, the magic number at 8 and the best record in baseball only a half game away. It's going to be a good next two weeks, time to put this thing to bed, rest some players up, and get ready for the next step: Winning in October.
Onto this week's picks:
Last week: 4-10-2 (Kneecaps hurt every time I type that)
CAROLINA -3.5 over Tampa Bay - I refuse to believe the Bucs can go 2-0, especially with the second being a road win. Sure the Panthers QB might be injured, but that could be addition by subtraction.
DALLAS -7.5 over Chicago - Despite a great fantasy outing, I watched a lot of last week's Bears game and Jay Cutler is still a gunslinger without wide receivers. 89-yard TD passes to runnings backs not name MoJo happen once and only once per season. Throw in the fact that Jerry Jones no doubt greased a few palms around the league this week, and I just can't see the Cowboys falling to 0-2. Can they win by 8? Well that's going to be interesting, but I'm betting on a bounce back effort.
Pittsburgh +5.5 over TENNESSEE - All part of my nefarious plot to have my buddy Jay (huge Steelers fan) offering me money to pick against his team by the time week 10 rolls around. I whiffed on Atlanta, thinking Matt Ryan would remember how to throw, instead the Falcons ground game got eaten up by the Steeler D. I see a Week One redux here, with Vince Young tossing a costly INT when asked to make a big play to win the game. He'll win it, just for the worng squad.
MINNESOTA -6 over Miami - Or just fold the tents, seriously. For anyone who says you can't have a must-win game in Week Two, I beg to differ and offer Weeks 5-8 of the Vikings schedule as my main argument.
(Sidenote on Vincent Jackson: If this wasn't our all-in, one-time-only shot at a title, I'd want nothing to do with the guy. But because of that, and the fact it's not my money, I say why not. Come on Wilfs, we're going to build you a stadium anyway, you'll make it back, now pony up. To anyone who says a 2nd-round pick is too much, keep in mind that T-Jack will probably be playing QB next season and realize that there really is no future here. I'm sure whatever linebacker we could pick up next season will be the difference between losing 13-3 instead of 20-3, but who cares? Act now.)
ATLANTA -7 over Arizona - More about hoping to salvage a prediction than real belief in the Falcons, what happened to Matt Ryan anyway, he's like the Bizzaro Rich Gannon?
Kansas City +2 over CLEVELAND - Hey, what better place to keep the KC Sleeper Express rolling along? Sure it might be hard to pull off those return TDs every week, but some weeks you play Cleveland, which is pretty much the same thing. I'm not sure why Sam Cassell is playing QB for the Chiefs, but he can lead an offense, so why not? Plus he invented the Big Ball Dance, instant credibility.
Baltimore -3 over CINNCINATTI - By definition, the Bengals defense has to play better in week one. To say they could have a poorer showing would indicate that they'd have to actually show up, and the only way this week is any uglier than last is if they refuse to leave the locker room. Joe Flacco is not Tom Brady by any stretch, but I've seen 7-on-7 scrimmages with more QB pressure than what the Bungles managed to apply last week. Fugly stuff, truly.
Philly -6.5 over DETROIT - Well Detroit, you almost showed me something. Now you've got no QB and must feel like God is against your football team. So it's kind of like every year.
GREEN BAY -14 over Buffalo - The Bills have a sneaky-good pass D and the Packers are down their starting RB, but all that will serve to do is keep this one reasonable until half. Come on CJ Spiller, good time to do something ridiculous and trip up the Cheeseheads.
DENVER -3.5 over Seattle - Calling last week a fluke and going with the home team
OAKLAND -3.5 over St. Louis - Would never wager on either of these teams, and if you tied an enemy combatant to a chair in front of this game, the ACLU would file a brief opposing it.
NEW YORK JETS +3 over New England - Toughest game of the week, going with Revis bottling up Moss, Rex Ryan going into his Mad Scientist Blitz Handbook and the Jets grinding it out
Houston -3 over WASHINGTON - The Skins beat Dallas, defense looks sharp, but if not for a boneheaded play to end the first quarter, the Cowboys probably pull that thing out. Houston looks sharp early, here's comes a strong start, then swoon.
SAN DIEGO -7 over Jacksonville - I mean it's gotta be, right? I know nothing about this league if this doesn't happen.
COLTS -6 over New York Giants - Return of the Manning Bowl, I'd hit mute, but they'd know it somehow and compensate by showing me more Archie
SAN FRANCISCO +6 over New Orleans - Saints still win, but an angry Niner's team and tricky winds keep it close
It's been another impressive regular season, and big props must go out to the entire organization, with the way they've been able to plug holes and battle back from adversity time after time. From losing their closer in spring training to losing their best hitter at midseason, the Twins have done what they always seem to do, find a way to keep winning games. Although I gave up on them roughly 73 times during the course of the season, I never stopped watching and hoping they'd find their way. Now that they have, reeling off the best record in baseball since the All-Star break, it's good to look back on the highs and lows of the season, and even better to look forward to the possibilities the future holds.
Because while all this winning has been great fun, there's still a big question to be answered: Are the Twins a good team, or just the best of a bad division? Sure they're not paired up with a bunch of total stiffs, but at the same time, the axis of power in baseball lies to the East (yes, I invoked that Germany-Japan WWII imagery on purpose), and it must be defeated before you can truly call this season a success. As I've said many times, division titles beat being a Royals fan, but at some point the promise of one of these seasons need to be realized. For the moment, the lead is at 9, the magic number at 8 and the best record in baseball only a half game away. It's going to be a good next two weeks, time to put this thing to bed, rest some players up, and get ready for the next step: Winning in October.
Onto this week's picks:
Last week: 4-10-2 (Kneecaps hurt every time I type that)
CAROLINA -3.5 over Tampa Bay - I refuse to believe the Bucs can go 2-0, especially with the second being a road win. Sure the Panthers QB might be injured, but that could be addition by subtraction.
DALLAS -7.5 over Chicago - Despite a great fantasy outing, I watched a lot of last week's Bears game and Jay Cutler is still a gunslinger without wide receivers. 89-yard TD passes to runnings backs not name MoJo happen once and only once per season. Throw in the fact that Jerry Jones no doubt greased a few palms around the league this week, and I just can't see the Cowboys falling to 0-2. Can they win by 8? Well that's going to be interesting, but I'm betting on a bounce back effort.
Pittsburgh +5.5 over TENNESSEE - All part of my nefarious plot to have my buddy Jay (huge Steelers fan) offering me money to pick against his team by the time week 10 rolls around. I whiffed on Atlanta, thinking Matt Ryan would remember how to throw, instead the Falcons ground game got eaten up by the Steeler D. I see a Week One redux here, with Vince Young tossing a costly INT when asked to make a big play to win the game. He'll win it, just for the worng squad.
MINNESOTA -6 over Miami - Or just fold the tents, seriously. For anyone who says you can't have a must-win game in Week Two, I beg to differ and offer Weeks 5-8 of the Vikings schedule as my main argument.
(Sidenote on Vincent Jackson: If this wasn't our all-in, one-time-only shot at a title, I'd want nothing to do with the guy. But because of that, and the fact it's not my money, I say why not. Come on Wilfs, we're going to build you a stadium anyway, you'll make it back, now pony up. To anyone who says a 2nd-round pick is too much, keep in mind that T-Jack will probably be playing QB next season and realize that there really is no future here. I'm sure whatever linebacker we could pick up next season will be the difference between losing 13-3 instead of 20-3, but who cares? Act now.)
ATLANTA -7 over Arizona - More about hoping to salvage a prediction than real belief in the Falcons, what happened to Matt Ryan anyway, he's like the Bizzaro Rich Gannon?
Kansas City +2 over CLEVELAND - Hey, what better place to keep the KC Sleeper Express rolling along? Sure it might be hard to pull off those return TDs every week, but some weeks you play Cleveland, which is pretty much the same thing. I'm not sure why Sam Cassell is playing QB for the Chiefs, but he can lead an offense, so why not? Plus he invented the Big Ball Dance, instant credibility.
Baltimore -3 over CINNCINATTI - By definition, the Bengals defense has to play better in week one. To say they could have a poorer showing would indicate that they'd have to actually show up, and the only way this week is any uglier than last is if they refuse to leave the locker room. Joe Flacco is not Tom Brady by any stretch, but I've seen 7-on-7 scrimmages with more QB pressure than what the Bungles managed to apply last week. Fugly stuff, truly.
Philly -6.5 over DETROIT - Well Detroit, you almost showed me something. Now you've got no QB and must feel like God is against your football team. So it's kind of like every year.
GREEN BAY -14 over Buffalo - The Bills have a sneaky-good pass D and the Packers are down their starting RB, but all that will serve to do is keep this one reasonable until half. Come on CJ Spiller, good time to do something ridiculous and trip up the Cheeseheads.
DENVER -3.5 over Seattle - Calling last week a fluke and going with the home team
OAKLAND -3.5 over St. Louis - Would never wager on either of these teams, and if you tied an enemy combatant to a chair in front of this game, the ACLU would file a brief opposing it.
NEW YORK JETS +3 over New England - Toughest game of the week, going with Revis bottling up Moss, Rex Ryan going into his Mad Scientist Blitz Handbook and the Jets grinding it out
Houston -3 over WASHINGTON - The Skins beat Dallas, defense looks sharp, but if not for a boneheaded play to end the first quarter, the Cowboys probably pull that thing out. Houston looks sharp early, here's comes a strong start, then swoon.
SAN DIEGO -7 over Jacksonville - I mean it's gotta be, right? I know nothing about this league if this doesn't happen.
COLTS -6 over New York Giants - Return of the Manning Bowl, I'd hit mute, but they'd know it somehow and compensate by showing me more Archie
SAN FRANCISCO +6 over New Orleans - Saints still win, but an angry Niner's team and tricky winds keep it close
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