Baseball!!!

The lack of star power in the Final Four is leaving me cold, the NHL playoffs haven't started and  Frozen Four is still a week away.  Thank goodness today is the official start of Twins baseball!

As usual, the Twins open the season with some question marks, and some division rivals who have made upgrades.  Key losses in the bullpen and middle infield have raised doubt over whether the hometown nine can once again beat out the White Sox and Tigers for the division crown.

Now normally I'm a pretty dedicated pessimist, and this season it seems a lot of folks agree with that assessment.  The Whities picked up a slugger in Adam Dunn this offseason, the Tigers similarly upgraded their offense by adding Victor Martinez.  The Twins?  Well they mostly just watched things happen, choosing to go their typical route of "looking at internal options" to patch the holes in their roster.

In the past this do nothing strategy would be driving me nuts, but in the era of the $100+ million payroll Twins, it's a little tougher to get bent out of shape.  Next offseason will have some major turnover, dollar-wise, with Joe Nathan and Michael Cuddyer hitting free agency.  There will also be key decisions to be made on players like Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano, potential stars who need to back up their strong performances from last season.  Against this backdrop, I don't have much of a problem with the conservative approach.  The team is in a good position to figure out who it's future cornerstones are, and act accordingly.

But the bigger factor is, the Twins just keep delivering.  Every year we read about the strides Chicago or Detroit has made, yet almost every year, it's the Twins who are left standing at the end.  As I've said before, if not for the White Sox title (admittedly huge), this "rivalry" wouldn't have much intrigue.  Even my Chicken Little self has finally seen enough to give the Twins the benefit of the doubt.

So now, for posterity, the 2011 Twins Over/Unders:

Division
Wins………90 - Over
Place……..2nd - Over

Seems to take somewhere in the 90-94 win neighborhood to take this thing, I'll pencil the Twins in for 92-70 and another division crown.  As always, the White Sox look better on paper, but that's been the case most years.  A healthy Jake Peavy could be a game-changer, but when you're in year 3 of saying that, it may no longer be a factor worth considering.  2nd Place - Chicago (90-72) 3rd Place - Detroit (86-76)


Pitching Wins
Liriano……..15 - Over
Pavano….....14 - Push
Duensing…...12 - Over
Baker……...10 - Over

I'll clock in at 17-9 for Frankie, 14-14 for Pavano (the year I expected in 2010), a 14-10 record for Duensing and 13-10 for the Butcher, er Baker, in a bounce back year.  I'll also predict multiple 500-foot home runs hit by Adam Dunn off Moonshot Scott.


Batting Average
Mauer……..330 - Under
Nishioka…...300 - Over
Valencia…...290 - Under
Span……….275 - Over

I'm seeing a bit more power at the expense of average from Mauer this season.  Probably buying into the hype on Nishioka too much, but the guy seems to have Ichiro-like contact ability, so I think he'll succeed.  Valencia will have a sophmore slump and Span will come out of his, just seems to be the way the game ebbs and flows.


Home Runs
Mauer………15 - Over
Morneau…....30 - Over
Delmon……..25 - Push
Kubel…….....25 - Over

None of the overs will be very far over, 2-3 at most, but I like the power to start coming out a bit more this year.  Sure Target Field is insanely tough to hit the ball out of, but with a year of experience, I think the long ball numbers improve.


Games played
Morneau…..130 - Over

Pure optimism


Saves
Nathan..........30 - Under

Something just seems off here


Thome hits HR #600 (currently at 589)…..June 15th - Over

Here's hoping I'm right on most of these, if so it will be one heck of a fun season, Go Twins!!!