Watching two conference championship games wrap up yesterday in stunningly disappointing fashion, I was overcome by one thought: Thank goodness the Vikings weren’t playing today.
If they had been, is there any possible way they don’t come out on the short end? The simple fact that Billy Cundiff was wearing purple when he shanked a 32-yard tying field goal was enough to send a shudder down my spine. Had the Vikings been there, they would’ve played that role, or the one of San Francisco, inexplicably losing on two muffed punt returns. However the particulars work out, some teams win, and some teams break your heart, the way it actually unfolds is just details. But as both games unraveled, you couldn't help but think, that is EXACTLY how we would've lost those games.
In a twisted way, that can make you sort of happy. Rather than spending today dejectedly staring into space, we can simply offer condolences to the shattered Ravens and Niners fans out there who deserved better, but ended up with what they got. Of course not all of them deserved better, in fact I know of one Niner “fan” who deserves only ridicule and scorn. To protect his anonymity, we’ll just call him Fraudboy, as it’s an appropriate moniker, given how things went down.
Fraudboy is a friend of mine who I’ve been watching football with for many years. He’s a dedicated antagonist of Minnesota sports teams, even going so far as cheering lustily following some of the more crushing losses in state sporting history. Obviously this has put us at odds on several occasions, even resulting in some isolated incidents of physical violence. Nothing too serious, no bloodshed, just the general sort fisticuffs that are the natural consequence of acting like a d-bag. Sometimes you gotta tell somebody what time it is.
At any rate, Fraudboy enjoys sports as much as I do, even if his loyalties are confounding. Despite living his whole life in Minnesota, he hates hockey, loves basketball and counts the Niners and Lakers as his favorite teams. Despite living his whole life in America, he also despises baseball. So while the rest of us sit and root on the Twins on a May Sunday, he will carp and whine about the fact that playoff basketball is being missed.
Now I’m not saying that everyone needs to fall in lock-step with the local teams of the town they grew up in. But if you don’t, then you’d better have a damn good reason, and above all, you’d better be consistent. I’ve never gotten much in the way of good reasons from this fellow, and I seem to recall periods during which other teams topped his list. But since the past decade has been one of solid affiliations, I was willing to mlet it go. Then yesterday happened.
As is our custom, we headed out to a bar for the early game, looking to grab a bite to eat and a couple beers before retiring to the couch. Fraudboy spent the majority of the time haranguing the rest of us for incorrectly predicting that New Orleans would end the 49ers season the previous weekend. Fine. He also loudly proclaimed that his squad would win the late game and advance to the Super Bowl, because, to quote “this isn’t the Vikings we’re talking about here”. Fine again. He was throwing back beers, having a grand old time, king of the world, holding court from his barstool. And it was fine.
What wasn’t fine was that, after all the talk, all the bravado, harassments and insults, Fraudboy took a seat on the couch…AND FELL THE F*CK ASLEEP!!! (Some may say passed out, but I’m being charitable here) Now I’ll grant you he made it through the first half just fine, and many of us have dozed off during a football game before, but to fall asleep when your favorite team is playing in a conference championship game? Floored would not be a strong enough word. Aghast comes to mind, as does disgusted. I know of no other fan who would ever let something like this happen. I even tried to wake him up by trying to land Cheez-Its in his mouth from across the room, scored a couple direct hits to the nose, but nothing.
Just know that I could fly overseas, eat a Thanksgiving dinner, down a bottle of NyQuil and listen to one of those white noise machines on the ‘Babbling Brook’ setting. If the Vikings were playing a playoff game, I can guarantee you, wide awake. I don’t bring this up because it makes me special, it’s a trait that every other fan in America shares, how does something like this happen?!?!?!?
This moment will never be lived down, and I do mean never. I managed to text just about everyone that Fraudboy has ever watched football with, complete with photos to prove my point. Next season, and for every season the rest of his life, any time Fraudboy utters a “we need to get the Niners game on”, it will be met with a stinging “Why? You feeling like a nap?”
The only question is, how to hammer the point home more completely?
A pillow, or better yet, one of those sleep masks, embroidered with the 49er logo?
Setting a bottle of No-Doz on the table at the bar every Sunday next football season?
Text messages at 7 PM every Saturday night reminding him to go home and get rested up so he can make it through the afternoon?
All I know is, when you open your mouth, you also open yourself up to all sorts of people just looking to throw those boasts back in your face. With eight months to plan, you can bet I’ll have something nefarious cooked up for all 17 weeks of next season.
Fraudboy, you’ve made a critical error my friend.
Showing posts with label NFL playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL playoffs. Show all posts
Monday, January 23, 2012
Friday, January 20, 2012
Flub-u-ary
We laughed, we cried, in some cases we hurled things (remote controls, expletives) at the television. But now, as we enter the last true football weekend of the season, it’s time to come to grips with the fact that next Sunday, there will not be a single NFL game.
Sure, if you’re a special kind of degenerate, you can place a bet on the Pro Bowl in order to give it some kind of meaning, but we all know a glorified exhibition when we see it. Even the Super Bowl, with all its build-up and pageantry, has a starkly different feel than a true NFL Sunday. Frankly the conference championship games moving back a few hours has made this week start to feel oddly bastardized, but there’s football on when it’s light outside, so I’m rolling with it.
The problem here isn’t really one of sports, but more so the dawning of the worst month of the year. Read up on the history of February some time, and you’ll see that it’s the black sheep of the months, oddly shoe-horned into whatever space in the calendar needed to be filled. In fact, I’m making the decision right now to officially revoke month status, as well as its name, terming it only “the period of time that must be endured between January and March”, shortened to “the period of time” or T-POT if you’re a real brevity fan.
There might be a lot of Roman historical mumbo jumbo out there explaining why T-POT is shorter than all of the real months, but it’s obvious to anyone who’s paying attention why that’s the case. Whoever was in charge of the calendar decision making in ancient times, we’ll call him Bill the Calendar Guy for our purposes here, was just looking for an excuse to whittle down the length of this impostor. Bill knew that he’d be stuck inside his mud hut for days on end, nothing but the same roasted mutton day after day, without a tomato or apple in sight, freezing his toga-wearing ass off every time he had to venture outside an empty the chamber pots. In other words, it’s just like today, the dead of winter has sucked for time immemorial.
So being the sharp guy that he was (because after all, they don’t put you in charge of calendar decisions if you’re not sharp, you might turn swap Tuesday with Saturday and all hell breaks loose), Bill made a call, and slapped a couple of those days onto other months at T-POT’s expense. Even if nothing had changed on March 1st, you could still flip that calendar and feel like there was hope. Like many a great man in history, Bill understood the power of marketing in human psychology; if he were alive today, there’s no doubt he’d be making a fortune selling Ed Hardy t-shirts and Lucky Brand jeans.
Subsequent decision makers followed the lead of this visionary, and refused to put anything worthwhile within the bounds of T-POT. Groundhog Day? Valentine’s Day? President’s Day? Are you kidding me? Much like the definition of a sport, there is the definition of a holiday, and it's quite simple: Do people get work off? Not just government employees and bankers either, I’m talking about the vast majority of the working population. With all due respect to America’s presidents, what you have here is not a holiday. I wish it were a holiday, put it to a vote and I’d give it a yea in a minute, but as it sits right now, it’s just another Monday. Granted a Monday with less traffic. Sorry.
(In my wonderings about this topic, I also stumbled across the interesting fact the T-POT is National Bird Feeding Month. Are you f*cking with me here? We’re going to have a celebration of feeding and watching birds during a month when they flee the northern half of the country? What a swell idea! Tell you what, it’s Hockey Day in Minnesota tomorrow, but what do you say we move it the second Saturday in July? Sure none of the teams will be playing, so there won’t be any games to watch, but we could all go sit in arenas wearing sandals, how’s that for novelty. I guess the upshot is, because the birds are having a tough time, you’re supposed to offer them extra food and shelter. Thing is, I don’t see a whole lot of birds whipping around my neighborhood in the dead of winter, they leave town for more hospitable climes. In that sense, we probably could all learn a thing or two from the birds, I mean beyond the hilarity of taking a sh*t on someone’s freshly washed car.)
Some people will try to point out that the Super Bowl occurs during T-POT, but that’s a new development, and one coldly calculated by the NFL to build additional hype. They want to throw the first week of this time frame a bone, so be it, but it’s definitely not natural.
Anyway, the month formally known as February sucks, and it will be here before you know it, good luck.
NFL Picks
2-2 last week on winner, but 0-4 against the spread, this will not stand.
Karma finally paid back the Saints for the NFC Championship game from two seasons ago, only problem was, the Vikings were the beneficiaries. I don't blame myself for that one.
The Patriots scored twice before the Broncos got off the bus, and destroyed my thoughts of a cover; I do blame myself for that one. Let the Tebow mysticism of the past few weeks get inside my head, forgetting about the Brady mysticism of the last decade. Dumb.
This week, I'm more confused than ever, but the good news is, only two opportunities to be wrong.
Baltimore @ New Englad (-7)
I'm trying to think of someone on the Ravens who can cover Rob Gronkowski, and failing. I'm also trying to reconcile how all those "New England can't win a championship with this defense" stories from a month ago have somehow been rendered moot.
The pick: New England 33, Baltimore 24
New York Giants @ San Francisco (-2.5)
Feels like the Giants, but isn't Eli Manning due for a couple bad interceptions? And isn't the likely place for that to happen on a damp and windy day in San Francisco? The other side of the coin is, if Alex Smith plays successfully against a defense that stymied Aaron Rodgers, is it time to sell your possessions and live out the final months of human existence on a beach somewhere?
The pick: San Francisco 23, New York Giants 20
So hey, that means Ravens vs. Giants in the Super Bowl. Enjoy the games and drink deep the cup of football on this final weekend.
Sure, if you’re a special kind of degenerate, you can place a bet on the Pro Bowl in order to give it some kind of meaning, but we all know a glorified exhibition when we see it. Even the Super Bowl, with all its build-up and pageantry, has a starkly different feel than a true NFL Sunday. Frankly the conference championship games moving back a few hours has made this week start to feel oddly bastardized, but there’s football on when it’s light outside, so I’m rolling with it.
The problem here isn’t really one of sports, but more so the dawning of the worst month of the year. Read up on the history of February some time, and you’ll see that it’s the black sheep of the months, oddly shoe-horned into whatever space in the calendar needed to be filled. In fact, I’m making the decision right now to officially revoke month status, as well as its name, terming it only “the period of time that must be endured between January and March”, shortened to “the period of time” or T-POT if you’re a real brevity fan.
There might be a lot of Roman historical mumbo jumbo out there explaining why T-POT is shorter than all of the real months, but it’s obvious to anyone who’s paying attention why that’s the case. Whoever was in charge of the calendar decision making in ancient times, we’ll call him Bill the Calendar Guy for our purposes here, was just looking for an excuse to whittle down the length of this impostor. Bill knew that he’d be stuck inside his mud hut for days on end, nothing but the same roasted mutton day after day, without a tomato or apple in sight, freezing his toga-wearing ass off every time he had to venture outside an empty the chamber pots. In other words, it’s just like today, the dead of winter has sucked for time immemorial.
So being the sharp guy that he was (because after all, they don’t put you in charge of calendar decisions if you’re not sharp, you might turn swap Tuesday with Saturday and all hell breaks loose), Bill made a call, and slapped a couple of those days onto other months at T-POT’s expense. Even if nothing had changed on March 1st, you could still flip that calendar and feel like there was hope. Like many a great man in history, Bill understood the power of marketing in human psychology; if he were alive today, there’s no doubt he’d be making a fortune selling Ed Hardy t-shirts and Lucky Brand jeans.
Subsequent decision makers followed the lead of this visionary, and refused to put anything worthwhile within the bounds of T-POT. Groundhog Day? Valentine’s Day? President’s Day? Are you kidding me? Much like the definition of a sport, there is the definition of a holiday, and it's quite simple: Do people get work off? Not just government employees and bankers either, I’m talking about the vast majority of the working population. With all due respect to America’s presidents, what you have here is not a holiday. I wish it were a holiday, put it to a vote and I’d give it a yea in a minute, but as it sits right now, it’s just another Monday. Granted a Monday with less traffic. Sorry.
(In my wonderings about this topic, I also stumbled across the interesting fact the T-POT is National Bird Feeding Month. Are you f*cking with me here? We’re going to have a celebration of feeding and watching birds during a month when they flee the northern half of the country? What a swell idea! Tell you what, it’s Hockey Day in Minnesota tomorrow, but what do you say we move it the second Saturday in July? Sure none of the teams will be playing, so there won’t be any games to watch, but we could all go sit in arenas wearing sandals, how’s that for novelty. I guess the upshot is, because the birds are having a tough time, you’re supposed to offer them extra food and shelter. Thing is, I don’t see a whole lot of birds whipping around my neighborhood in the dead of winter, they leave town for more hospitable climes. In that sense, we probably could all learn a thing or two from the birds, I mean beyond the hilarity of taking a sh*t on someone’s freshly washed car.)
Some people will try to point out that the Super Bowl occurs during T-POT, but that’s a new development, and one coldly calculated by the NFL to build additional hype. They want to throw the first week of this time frame a bone, so be it, but it’s definitely not natural.
Anyway, the month formally known as February sucks, and it will be here before you know it, good luck.
NFL Picks
2-2 last week on winner, but 0-4 against the spread, this will not stand.
Karma finally paid back the Saints for the NFC Championship game from two seasons ago, only problem was, the Vikings were the beneficiaries. I don't blame myself for that one.
The Patriots scored twice before the Broncos got off the bus, and destroyed my thoughts of a cover; I do blame myself for that one. Let the Tebow mysticism of the past few weeks get inside my head, forgetting about the Brady mysticism of the last decade. Dumb.
This week, I'm more confused than ever, but the good news is, only two opportunities to be wrong.
Baltimore @ New Englad (-7)
I'm trying to think of someone on the Ravens who can cover Rob Gronkowski, and failing. I'm also trying to reconcile how all those "New England can't win a championship with this defense" stories from a month ago have somehow been rendered moot.
The pick: New England 33, Baltimore 24
New York Giants @ San Francisco (-2.5)
Feels like the Giants, but isn't Eli Manning due for a couple bad interceptions? And isn't the likely place for that to happen on a damp and windy day in San Francisco? The other side of the coin is, if Alex Smith plays successfully against a defense that stymied Aaron Rodgers, is it time to sell your possessions and live out the final months of human existence on a beach somewhere?
The pick: San Francisco 23, New York Giants 20
So hey, that means Ravens vs. Giants in the Super Bowl. Enjoy the games and drink deep the cup of football on this final weekend.
Monday, January 16, 2012
Monday aftermath
The Germans call it schadenfreude, a malicious satisfaction obtained from the misfortunes of others. That seems to be the general sentiment washing over the state of Minnesota today, following the unceremonious exit of the Green Bay Packers in their first playoff game of the season.
I don't blame Vikings fans for celebrating this, particularly those who have friends, family or co-workers constantly reminding them of the gulf separating the two franchises. My buddy Lee, for instance, has extended family all over Wisconsin who never miss a chance to needle him on this subject. People in those circumstances are allowed to be giddy. Heck, they're allowed to have a t-shirt made commemorating the occasion if they feel like it.
Just realize, you're not turning the tables on anything. The Super Bowl scoreboard still reads Packers 4, Vikings 0, and the 2011 win totals fall right in line with it. I'm not here to defend Green Bay or their fans, but some of the gloating over their loss is borderline comical, and would only be appropriate if the Purple had delivered it themselves.
Imagine the tables were turned, the miraculous had happened, and the Vikings were the defending champs, entering the playoffs after a 15-1 season. A Vikings fan being beside himself with grief over that loss would rank among the greediest acts of all time. Because being the defending champs means you won one, and that's all we've been asking for how long now? Maybe this Packers season was like football bulimia: They had a nice meal (season), excused themselves, then went in the bathroom and vomited all over everything. But are the anorexic Vikings really better off? Seems everyone is going to bed hungry.
Some guy on the radio said the Saints and Packers losing made today "the greatest day of my life". Hyperbole, no doubt, but sad hyperbole, because it says something very disturbing about Vikings fans as a group. (Sadder still if that man has children, but that's another conversation). Personally, I'm reserving the title of greatest (sports) day of my life for the day when we finally break through. I don't even see how watching someone else lose can move beyond a good day to achieve "great" status. A bit of cold comfort to make the workplace/family gathering/corner bar a tad more hospitable, that's about it.
Did I enjoy it? Sure. But let's not make it part of our sporting lore.
Who should be gloating? Gopher hockey fans. Despite a split last weekend in Grand Forks, the maroon-and-gold outplayed North Dakota, and looked a lot classier in the process. (Cue Gopher fans: When have they not looked classier?) I've chafed plenty over the years at having to listen to people whine about "cheap" and "dirty" UND players who were guilty of nothing more than physical play. The clucking hens are never worse than when Minnesota comes to town, and I've chalked most of it up to the frustration of losing. But lately, they're starting to have a point.
I don't care how nasty a game gets, certain lines have been crossed repeatedly by North Dakota players, and it's getting old. You can't line a guy up on a terrible check from behind out of frustration, and most importantly, YOU CAN'T HIT SOMEBODY IN THE HANDSHAKE LINE!!! Congrats Ben Blood, you made Deadspin, for all the wrong reasons. And yes, for fairness, the Gophers Mark Alt was also guilty of a bad CFB on Saturday, but two dumb plays don't make a right.
Now I don't know all the history between these players and I'm obviously not dealing with the emotions of the game, but this isn't the first time this stuff has gone on in the handshake line, and it's tiresome. It doesn't matter what the extenuating circumstances are, you're never going to come off looking good by getting into a shoving match while shaking hands. If you're that angry, just forgo the line and skate off. Emotions run high, but the reputation of your team and school are also involved here, get a grip.
There was a lot to be positive about over a weekend that featured some great play, and the Ralph as loud as I've ever heard it in my life. The UND players probably felt as passionate as the fans did about closing out their last WCHA home series with Minnesota in a big way. But coming from a guy who will defend any legal play you make to anyone who opens their mouth to criticize it, I have to say, if you're not planning to shake hands, don't get in line in the first place.
And for any Sioux fan that wants to say this stuff is "no big deal" or "the guy had it coming", I can offer a practical reason you should dislike it. This stuff draws penalties that hurt in big games. Agree with the calls or not, they happen, and that needs to be weighed against the need to "send a message" or "set a tone" against any opponent. Particularly the skilled ones that show up last in the season when the chips are down.
I don't blame Vikings fans for celebrating this, particularly those who have friends, family or co-workers constantly reminding them of the gulf separating the two franchises. My buddy Lee, for instance, has extended family all over Wisconsin who never miss a chance to needle him on this subject. People in those circumstances are allowed to be giddy. Heck, they're allowed to have a t-shirt made commemorating the occasion if they feel like it.
Just realize, you're not turning the tables on anything. The Super Bowl scoreboard still reads Packers 4, Vikings 0, and the 2011 win totals fall right in line with it. I'm not here to defend Green Bay or their fans, but some of the gloating over their loss is borderline comical, and would only be appropriate if the Purple had delivered it themselves.
Imagine the tables were turned, the miraculous had happened, and the Vikings were the defending champs, entering the playoffs after a 15-1 season. A Vikings fan being beside himself with grief over that loss would rank among the greediest acts of all time. Because being the defending champs means you won one, and that's all we've been asking for how long now? Maybe this Packers season was like football bulimia: They had a nice meal (season), excused themselves, then went in the bathroom and vomited all over everything. But are the anorexic Vikings really better off? Seems everyone is going to bed hungry.
Some guy on the radio said the Saints and Packers losing made today "the greatest day of my life". Hyperbole, no doubt, but sad hyperbole, because it says something very disturbing about Vikings fans as a group. (Sadder still if that man has children, but that's another conversation). Personally, I'm reserving the title of greatest (sports) day of my life for the day when we finally break through. I don't even see how watching someone else lose can move beyond a good day to achieve "great" status. A bit of cold comfort to make the workplace/family gathering/corner bar a tad more hospitable, that's about it.
Did I enjoy it? Sure. But let's not make it part of our sporting lore.
Who should be gloating? Gopher hockey fans. Despite a split last weekend in Grand Forks, the maroon-and-gold outplayed North Dakota, and looked a lot classier in the process. (Cue Gopher fans: When have they not looked classier?) I've chafed plenty over the years at having to listen to people whine about "cheap" and "dirty" UND players who were guilty of nothing more than physical play. The clucking hens are never worse than when Minnesota comes to town, and I've chalked most of it up to the frustration of losing. But lately, they're starting to have a point.
I don't care how nasty a game gets, certain lines have been crossed repeatedly by North Dakota players, and it's getting old. You can't line a guy up on a terrible check from behind out of frustration, and most importantly, YOU CAN'T HIT SOMEBODY IN THE HANDSHAKE LINE!!! Congrats Ben Blood, you made Deadspin, for all the wrong reasons. And yes, for fairness, the Gophers Mark Alt was also guilty of a bad CFB on Saturday, but two dumb plays don't make a right.
Now I don't know all the history between these players and I'm obviously not dealing with the emotions of the game, but this isn't the first time this stuff has gone on in the handshake line, and it's tiresome. It doesn't matter what the extenuating circumstances are, you're never going to come off looking good by getting into a shoving match while shaking hands. If you're that angry, just forgo the line and skate off. Emotions run high, but the reputation of your team and school are also involved here, get a grip.
There was a lot to be positive about over a weekend that featured some great play, and the Ralph as loud as I've ever heard it in my life. The UND players probably felt as passionate as the fans did about closing out their last WCHA home series with Minnesota in a big way. But coming from a guy who will defend any legal play you make to anyone who opens their mouth to criticize it, I have to say, if you're not planning to shake hands, don't get in line in the first place.
And for any Sioux fan that wants to say this stuff is "no big deal" or "the guy had it coming", I can offer a practical reason you should dislike it. This stuff draws penalties that hurt in big games. Agree with the calls or not, they happen, and that needs to be weighed against the need to "send a message" or "set a tone" against any opponent. Particularly the skilled ones that show up last in the season when the chips are down.
Thursday, January 12, 2012
2012 State of the 'Ville: The University of Mediocrity
I was going to talk about the University of Minnesota sports teams, but given what’s going on this week, and their recent history, I can’t muster much steam to discuss them. So football and basketball, all you get is a haiku, which is probably more than you’re worth at this point.
Gopher football:
Fits of competence
Can’t mask the reality
They're still sh*tty
Gopher basketball:
Tubby Smith can’t stop
A winless Big Ten Season
Start cheating again
You can go on and on about how to fix these broken programs, but the bottom line is they’ve been bad for a long time and at the moment might be worse than ever. Understanding that a lot of passion exists for these teams, it hasn’t been enough to turn the tide for a very long time. Flashes of competence have appeared, and frankly that’s really all we’re asking for at this point. The bar has been lowered to such an extreme that a winning season or tourney berth might be just cause to overturn a car or two in Dinkytown. Well be back for the fall hope sale, at the moment, there’s not much to discuss.
Where there is something to discuss, for the first time in a couple seasons, is on the hockey front, where the University’s one consistent performer appears to have shaken off its recent slump. After back-to-back years of missing the NCAA tourney, the maroon-and-gold seem to have righted itself and are looking like a lock to make the field this spring. Of course, being a fan of the University of North Dakota (team name omitted), I am duty bound to hate the Golden Rodents. While I may not begrude succes to many friends who count themselves fans, I cannot in good conscience root for them. Probably a lucky thing, as my support has never boded well for any other Minnesota athletic endeavors.
This weekend is one that has come to be circled on the calendar, as three of the past four years, the second week in January has been host to both the NFL Divisional playoffs and a Sioux-Gophers hockey series. This is the first year that the Sioux will not officially be known as the Sioux, having officially retired the name at the end of last year, but I will continue to call them as such, regardless of what the PC terrorists at the NCAA have instructed. You can have my nickname when you pry it from my cold, dead hands. For future reference, please note that the tribes required to give approval likely supported the Fighting Sioux, but they were not allowed to voice said support through a binding vote. Just in case some schmuck tells you otherwise, this wasn’t about helping anybody, just the college sports authority trying to take people’s eye off the ball.
It’s a bit amazing that the NCAA has the time to go about writing societal wrongs of this type, seeing as how they can’t even create system to crown a football champion that’s worth a f*ck. But this horse has been beaten to death over the years, not going to be belabor the point it again. Just had to get in a few shots at a corrupt, money-grubbing organization who exercises it’s outrage selectively, against only those wrongs that don’t impact its bottom line. This has been an unfair, despicable process to watch unfold, but it is what it is, and it’s over, just like this rant.
Because even if it doesn’t say ‘Sioux’ on the front of the jersey, the hockey games this weekend are going to be just as fun to attend, and just as huge in the standings for a UND team that got out of the gate slowly. It’s been 20 years since one of these teams swept a 4-game season series from the other, and since I’ll be in attendance for both tilts, I’m really hoping that this isn’t the year when that steak is broken. The Gophers may be in the catbird seat, but the guys in green have quite a bit of work to do, fortunately this is usually the time of year that they start taking care of business. This post from a year ago captures my personal history with the matchup; beyond that, there’s not much to say but GO SIOUX!
NFL Playoff Picks
Just when I start to think I'll be able to sit and watch sports like a sane adult, something comes along to set me off. Last Sunday, watching God's own virginal soldier Tim Tebow lead the Denver Broncos to victory was one of those things. Back in November 2010, when Tebowmania was just in it's infant stages, I declared him an official sports nemesis. So of course, it's not surprising to see the success he's enjoyed since. As usual, it's not the man (or the band, or the fad, or the show) that I hate, it's the disciples who wander around, incessantly touting it's virtues. If Tim Tebow were just another mediocre passer, that would be that, but unfortunately he brings along extra baggage that I'm sure you're all aware of.
At times earlier this season, my view softened, due to the enjoyment of improbably Bronco wins that featured almost zero discernable quarterback play. Unfortunately I never imagined this trend would show up to start compromising the NFL postseason. The enjoyable part of it was the circus-freak quality, passes in the dirt and 3-for-15 performance that somehow spelled victory. Watching last Sunday was like having your son bring the bearded lady home to dinner, okay on a midway, not so much in the living room.
And he's just such a lucky bastard! It always irritates me when teams make a game they don't belong in through good fortune, inevitably compromising the entertainment value when they do. Last season's Bears team had no business in the NFC Championship game, but thanks to a string of regular-season games against 3rd-string QBS, and an improbable upset by Seattle, there they were. I hated them for that, and it's was much the same with Tebow.
But then something happened, and it's the thing I hate happening when I get worked into a nice lather with a good case of sports hate: Perspective crept in. You watch the press conference from last week's game, and one of the first things he brings up is comforting a sick girl before the game. Dang. Every quote is dripping with humbleness, praise of teammates, just the general qualities you hope the people in the public eye possess. You're making it very tough to dislike you Tim.
Of course there are the twelve mentions of God in two minutes, it's at the point where the sound of his voice causes my eyes to roll involuntarily.
But anyway, officially flip-flopping for the 27th time and softening my stance on Tebow. Let the chips fall where they may, if he can pull off a miracle and win the Super Bowl, well then I'm officially a believer in that Mayan end-of-days prophecy, somebody save me a seat at church.
Of course if he guides his team there, then hands the Packers another championship with a 5-27, 39 yard stinkbomb, we're back to square one.
New Orleans (-3.5) @ San Francisco
It would be great to see the 49ers win this game, but I just don't see it happening. You can definitely make the argument, they're at home, outdoors, on grass. The defense has been great and you know the team will be jacked up.
But you know the Saints are going to score some points, and being able to spread the Niners out, totally negating the strength of their run defense, gives them the nod to victory in my mind. New Orleans will score, and I don't like an Alex Smith-led offense's chances of answering. Of course I'm also the guy who thought T.J. Yates had no chance of winning a playoff game last week, so what do I know?
The pick: New Orleans 27, San Francisco 20
Denver @ New England (-13.5)
Two reasons:
This line is huge.
I'm done betting against Tebow in the playoffs when it's obvious he has mystical forces on his side.
It was my mistake reading too much into the hiccups down the stretch in December. I'd imagine God as a sports entity is kind of like Phil Jackson, he might allow some things to slip during the regular season, but you know he's going to have things locked in come playoff time. It doesn't matter if the Holy Ghost (Kobe) is pouting about not getting top billing or Jesus (Shaq) spends the first few months of the season playing himself into shape, when that bell rings, it will be answered.
And I will not be on the wrong side of another Tebowvictory cover.
The pick: New England 31, Denver 20
Houston @ Baltimore (-7.5)
The Joe Flacco coming out party that quiets his doubters and shows he's a big-time QB?
Or the Joe Flacco collapse that starts Ravens fans down the "we'll never win anything with Flacco!" path?
Neither would surprise me, but the combination of Baltimore being undefeated at home and the belief that T.J. Yates has to fold eventually (right?) has me leaning toward a fairly easy Ravens victory. Not to mention I don't think a Texans defensive end will manage to grab a pick-six on a pass thrown while he was standing about two feet from the quarterback! Forget the 80-yard pass to end the Denver game, for my money that was the most amazing play of the weekend. Not breaking fingers on that play would've been good, never mind a catch and return.
The pick: Baltimore 27, Houston 17
New York Giants @ Green Bay (-7.5)
Of all the games happening this weekend, this is the one I will be rooting the hardest for. My favorite remaining team taking on the hated Cheeseheads from the state next door, not much could be finer than a Giant victory.
Unfortunately, I don't like the vibe of what I'm hearing, there are just a few too many people giving the Giants a bit too good of a chance. We are, after all, talking about a 15-win team, playing at home, against the most inconsistent squad in the league. Tell me all you want about how the Giants have the right kind of team to beat the Packers, how they can get pressure with their front four, and they almost beat them last time. I'd love to agree, but I just don't think so, too many good vibes are a bad thing for the G-Men, they need to be given no chance to succeed. Although for gambling purposes, sure would be nice if this line was 6 1/2.
The pick: Green Bay 35, New York Giants 24
Gopher football:
Fits of competence
Can’t mask the reality
They're still sh*tty
Gopher basketball:
Tubby Smith can’t stop
A winless Big Ten Season
Start cheating again
You can go on and on about how to fix these broken programs, but the bottom line is they’ve been bad for a long time and at the moment might be worse than ever. Understanding that a lot of passion exists for these teams, it hasn’t been enough to turn the tide for a very long time. Flashes of competence have appeared, and frankly that’s really all we’re asking for at this point. The bar has been lowered to such an extreme that a winning season or tourney berth might be just cause to overturn a car or two in Dinkytown. Well be back for the fall hope sale, at the moment, there’s not much to discuss.
Where there is something to discuss, for the first time in a couple seasons, is on the hockey front, where the University’s one consistent performer appears to have shaken off its recent slump. After back-to-back years of missing the NCAA tourney, the maroon-and-gold seem to have righted itself and are looking like a lock to make the field this spring. Of course, being a fan of the University of North Dakota (team name omitted), I am duty bound to hate the Golden Rodents. While I may not begrude succes to many friends who count themselves fans, I cannot in good conscience root for them. Probably a lucky thing, as my support has never boded well for any other Minnesota athletic endeavors.
This weekend is one that has come to be circled on the calendar, as three of the past four years, the second week in January has been host to both the NFL Divisional playoffs and a Sioux-Gophers hockey series. This is the first year that the Sioux will not officially be known as the Sioux, having officially retired the name at the end of last year, but I will continue to call them as such, regardless of what the PC terrorists at the NCAA have instructed. You can have my nickname when you pry it from my cold, dead hands. For future reference, please note that the tribes required to give approval likely supported the Fighting Sioux, but they were not allowed to voice said support through a binding vote. Just in case some schmuck tells you otherwise, this wasn’t about helping anybody, just the college sports authority trying to take people’s eye off the ball.
It’s a bit amazing that the NCAA has the time to go about writing societal wrongs of this type, seeing as how they can’t even create system to crown a football champion that’s worth a f*ck. But this horse has been beaten to death over the years, not going to be belabor the point it again. Just had to get in a few shots at a corrupt, money-grubbing organization who exercises it’s outrage selectively, against only those wrongs that don’t impact its bottom line. This has been an unfair, despicable process to watch unfold, but it is what it is, and it’s over, just like this rant.
Because even if it doesn’t say ‘Sioux’ on the front of the jersey, the hockey games this weekend are going to be just as fun to attend, and just as huge in the standings for a UND team that got out of the gate slowly. It’s been 20 years since one of these teams swept a 4-game season series from the other, and since I’ll be in attendance for both tilts, I’m really hoping that this isn’t the year when that steak is broken. The Gophers may be in the catbird seat, but the guys in green have quite a bit of work to do, fortunately this is usually the time of year that they start taking care of business. This post from a year ago captures my personal history with the matchup; beyond that, there’s not much to say but GO SIOUX!
NFL Playoff Picks
Just when I start to think I'll be able to sit and watch sports like a sane adult, something comes along to set me off. Last Sunday, watching God's own virginal soldier Tim Tebow lead the Denver Broncos to victory was one of those things. Back in November 2010, when Tebowmania was just in it's infant stages, I declared him an official sports nemesis. So of course, it's not surprising to see the success he's enjoyed since. As usual, it's not the man (or the band, or the fad, or the show) that I hate, it's the disciples who wander around, incessantly touting it's virtues. If Tim Tebow were just another mediocre passer, that would be that, but unfortunately he brings along extra baggage that I'm sure you're all aware of.
At times earlier this season, my view softened, due to the enjoyment of improbably Bronco wins that featured almost zero discernable quarterback play. Unfortunately I never imagined this trend would show up to start compromising the NFL postseason. The enjoyable part of it was the circus-freak quality, passes in the dirt and 3-for-15 performance that somehow spelled victory. Watching last Sunday was like having your son bring the bearded lady home to dinner, okay on a midway, not so much in the living room.
And he's just such a lucky bastard! It always irritates me when teams make a game they don't belong in through good fortune, inevitably compromising the entertainment value when they do. Last season's Bears team had no business in the NFC Championship game, but thanks to a string of regular-season games against 3rd-string QBS, and an improbable upset by Seattle, there they were. I hated them for that, and it's was much the same with Tebow.
But then something happened, and it's the thing I hate happening when I get worked into a nice lather with a good case of sports hate: Perspective crept in. You watch the press conference from last week's game, and one of the first things he brings up is comforting a sick girl before the game. Dang. Every quote is dripping with humbleness, praise of teammates, just the general qualities you hope the people in the public eye possess. You're making it very tough to dislike you Tim.
Of course there are the twelve mentions of God in two minutes, it's at the point where the sound of his voice causes my eyes to roll involuntarily.
But anyway, officially flip-flopping for the 27th time and softening my stance on Tebow. Let the chips fall where they may, if he can pull off a miracle and win the Super Bowl, well then I'm officially a believer in that Mayan end-of-days prophecy, somebody save me a seat at church.
Of course if he guides his team there, then hands the Packers another championship with a 5-27, 39 yard stinkbomb, we're back to square one.
New Orleans (-3.5) @ San Francisco
It would be great to see the 49ers win this game, but I just don't see it happening. You can definitely make the argument, they're at home, outdoors, on grass. The defense has been great and you know the team will be jacked up.
But you know the Saints are going to score some points, and being able to spread the Niners out, totally negating the strength of their run defense, gives them the nod to victory in my mind. New Orleans will score, and I don't like an Alex Smith-led offense's chances of answering. Of course I'm also the guy who thought T.J. Yates had no chance of winning a playoff game last week, so what do I know?
The pick: New Orleans 27, San Francisco 20
Denver @ New England (-13.5)
Two reasons:
This line is huge.
I'm done betting against Tebow in the playoffs when it's obvious he has mystical forces on his side.
It was my mistake reading too much into the hiccups down the stretch in December. I'd imagine God as a sports entity is kind of like Phil Jackson, he might allow some things to slip during the regular season, but you know he's going to have things locked in come playoff time. It doesn't matter if the Holy Ghost (Kobe) is pouting about not getting top billing or Jesus (Shaq) spends the first few months of the season playing himself into shape, when that bell rings, it will be answered.
And I will not be on the wrong side of another Tebow
The pick: New England 31, Denver 20
Houston @ Baltimore (-7.5)
The Joe Flacco coming out party that quiets his doubters and shows he's a big-time QB?
Or the Joe Flacco collapse that starts Ravens fans down the "we'll never win anything with Flacco!" path?
Neither would surprise me, but the combination of Baltimore being undefeated at home and the belief that T.J. Yates has to fold eventually (right?) has me leaning toward a fairly easy Ravens victory. Not to mention I don't think a Texans defensive end will manage to grab a pick-six on a pass thrown while he was standing about two feet from the quarterback! Forget the 80-yard pass to end the Denver game, for my money that was the most amazing play of the weekend. Not breaking fingers on that play would've been good, never mind a catch and return.
The pick: Baltimore 27, Houston 17
New York Giants @ Green Bay (-7.5)
Of all the games happening this weekend, this is the one I will be rooting the hardest for. My favorite remaining team taking on the hated Cheeseheads from the state next door, not much could be finer than a Giant victory.
Unfortunately, I don't like the vibe of what I'm hearing, there are just a few too many people giving the Giants a bit too good of a chance. We are, after all, talking about a 15-win team, playing at home, against the most inconsistent squad in the league. Tell me all you want about how the Giants have the right kind of team to beat the Packers, how they can get pressure with their front four, and they almost beat them last time. I'd love to agree, but I just don't think so, too many good vibes are a bad thing for the G-Men, they need to be given no chance to succeed. Although for gambling purposes, sure would be nice if this line was 6 1/2.
The pick: Green Bay 35, New York Giants 24
Friday, January 6, 2012
In search of playoff perfection
Time to take a break from wallowing in our misery to stop and enjoy the only good thing about the ending to the NFL season: The Playoffs.
It’s been a long time since any Minnesota team found itself involved in a playoff game (October 7, 2010 to be exact), longer still since the local NFL squad factored in (January 24th, 2009) and another week beyond that since any of the four teams in town enjoyed a playoff win. I plan on marking the two-year anniversary of said victory this January 17th by standing on a street corner and having bags of excrement hurled at me. Figure I might as well literally enact what these teams have been doing figuratively during that period. If you’d like to participate, send an email to loservillepoofling@gmail.com. You do either have to supply your own poo, or buy me a few cans of Hormel chili before the 10th, need adequate time to prep.
But like I've said, the next couple of weeks are a vacation from those bothersome thoughts, as we're reminded that competent teams do exist, and get to enjoy their excellence vicariously. Sure it’s nowhere hear the same with the hometown team absent, but it’s still a display of great football (with the inevitable couple of clunkers thrown into the mix).
Several years ago, Bill Simmons, the Godfather of inane sports ramblings and a personal hero, published the NFL Playoff Gambling Manifesto. A good read if you’ve never had the pleaasure, it focuses on the basic tenets that should be adhered to in the hopes of accomplishing the improbable: Running the table by going 11-0 against the spread in playoff games.
To my knowledge, this has never been done, due to the fact that betting on football is really, really hard. If it wasn’t, Vegas wouldn’t have casinos and bookies wouldn’t drive Cadillacs. Even though I’ve lost the vast majority of football bets I’ve ever placed in my life, I’m glad it does and glad they do. A thing must be difficult in order to be worth doing, ask anyone who’s ever beaten a video game that they just forked over $50 for in 6 hours.
All in all, it’s been a mediocre NFL season for me. Placed a couple of bets, split em. Finished 4th in the family football pool, but did manage to climb out of the cellar after a brutal start. Made two fantasy football championship games, lost both. And of course there were the Vikings. The impending Packers Super Bowl victory would definitely tip the scales into negative territory. But if I can pull off the playoff perfecto, that would trump all of it, and the journey starts today!
Of course it could very well die tomorrow, just as it did last season, when the biggest can’t-miss, lead-pipe cinch in history went up in smoke. Or down in flames, I always get them confused. New Orleans vs. Seattle should’ve been as one-sided as Drunken Me vs. 2 AM Plate of Breakfast, but again, that’s why this stuff is hard. Last year, nobody at the bar was even rooting for the Saints, but after Marshawn Lynch broke 73 tackles to ice the thing, we all kind of sat around staring at each other blankly, half-dazed. So Seattle is going to Chicago? Wait, what?
This week’s slate looks even more daunting, featuring a showdown of rookie QBs, a matchup of Good (Tebow) vs. Evil (Unfrozen Caveman Quarterback) and two teams (Falcons and Giants) who make Kanye West's Twitter account seem mundane and predictable. It’s going to be tough, but that’s what we’re in business for.
But first, a quick look back at how I did with the thoughts way back in September
AFC West
San Diego (10-6)
Kansas City (8-8)
Denver (7-9)
Oakland (4-12)
To quote Dan Patrick, “the whiff”. Turn that puppy upside down and you might have something, but I make no apologies for being completely wrong on maybe the craziest division in history. If you’d have told me by the end of the year that Tim Tebow would have Denver in the playoffs, Carson Palmer would be quarterbacking Oakland and Norv Turner would miss the playoffs, yet STILL manage to keep his job?
Well, I would’ve asked you to pass it my way.
AFC South
Houston (9-7)
Indianapolis (8-8)
Tennessee (6-10)
Jacksonville (4-12)
See, now if they’d take my advice, and started Orlovsky from the get-go, things might’ve worked out different.
Nobody told me Peyton Manning was a player-coach, I didn’t think that was allowed. Also would’ve had Tennessee pegged better if I’d known Manning was going to be out all year. Then again, if I’d known a guy named T.J. Yates would be running the show for Houston over the last third of the season, I might’ve picked the Colts to win the division. Let’s just move on.
AFC North
Pittsburgh (12-4)
Baltimore (10-6)
Cleveland (7-9)
Cincinnati (4-12)
Would you buy that the Cleveland and Cincy records got juxtaposed when the blog went to the printer?
Yeah, I didn’t think so.
Once again, the Steelers continue their tradition of not doing what I called them to do, but at least they were in the ballpark. I did not see Andy Dalton coming, now I’m forced to pondering (there it is again!) the question of whether the Vikings rookie QB could’ve led the Bengals to the playoffs, had the roles been reversed. Leaning no at the moment.
AFC East
New England (12-4)
New York Jets (9-7)
Buffalo (7-9)
Miami (6-10)
Dammit Jets, things were breaking exactly how they were supposed to: Sneak into the playoffs on the last day of the season, pull out crazy defensive gameplans for playoff upsets, beat the Packers in the Super Bowl and make me look like an f’n genius! Instead, you rolled over against Miami last week, after everything had fallen your way.
Chance after squandered chance, yet you still could’ve just pulled that game out and gotten yet another shot that you didn’t deserve. You know, exactly the way you’ve been doing things for the last two years now? I already hated you, but now I hate you more, would get a Rex Ryan voodoo doll if enough fabric existed to fulfill such a request.
NFC West
St. Louis (9-7)
San Francisco (7-9)
Arizona (7-9)
Seattle (5-11)
The “Sam Bradford Tricked Me Into Thinking He Was Good” support group membership is almost as as wide and varied as the “I Dropped A Pass From Sam Bradford This Season” group.
This was my line for Arizona when likening each team to a movie:
“Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade” – You chose…poorly. Should’ve traded for Orton and saved the $40 million bucks.
And I stand by it!
NFC South
New Orleans (12-4)
Atlanta (10-6)
Tampa Bay (9-7)
Carolina (4-12)
Already working on the screenplay for a “Trading Places” remake starring Josh Freeman and Cam Newton. If I'm lucky, they'll pull the same thing next year, with Newton regressing and Freeman regaining his form. Franchises, that's where the real Hollywood money is.
Poor Bucs fans, maybe the worst thing is sports is going from being a fan of the up-and-coming team that turns out to be the “holy sh*t, we suck, what happened?!?!?!” team.
Well, the worst thing not involving the Vikings and the NFC Championship game at least.
NFC North
Green Bay (11-5)
Detroit (8-8)
Minnesota (7-9)
Chicago (7-9)
I’m always terrible with this division. I likened the Vikings to either “Die Hard With A Vengeance” or “Major League 3”, but the whole thing should’ve been “A Few Good Men”, because I can’t handle the truth of what’s going on in the NFC North these days. Was right on Chicago taking a step back, but only because they were forced to consider starting a hot dog vendor at QB, can’t crow too much about that.
NFC East
Philadelphia (11-5)
Dallas (9-7)
New York Giants (7-9)
Washington (7-9)
Philadelphia, meet St. Louis, and a very perplexed public; now both of you leave, you bother me.
I love this Giants team for some reason, and am rooting for them to win it all. It's not just their delighfully pschizophrenic season, or excellent uniforms, or the fact that their winning would royally piss off the Jets, or the possibility of a legtimate "Who was the better Manning brother?" debate 5 years from now if Eli wins a second title and duplicates this season's performance for a few more years.
Oh wait, yeah it is, all that stuff is why I love em, Go Giants!
AFC Wild Card – New York Jets over San Diego, Baltimore over Houston
NFC Wild Card – Philadelphia over Dallas, Atlanta over St. Louis
AFC Divisional – New York Jets over New England, Pittsburgh over Baltimore
NFC Divisional – New Orleans over Atlanta, Green Bay over Philadelphia
AFC Championship – New York Jets over Pittsburgh
NFC Championship – Green Bay over New Orleans
Super Bowl – New York Jets over Green Bay
Only 7 of 12 playoff teams, Super Bowl champ already gone, not my best work, I must say. But the fun of all this is that when I look around at the predictions from folks who get paid to do this for a living, most are pretty similar. That's why it's the best league on the planet!
On to this week's games:
Cincinnatti @ Houston (-3.5)
In a week of tough games to handicap, this one might be the toughest. Pretty much what you'd expect with two rookie QBs in their first playoff starts. In fact, I've had such a hard time making a pick, I've decided to employ my sister's mascot system to break the tie.
On the surface, it seems like a Bengal would have no problem dispatching a Texan, but you have to consider the likelihood of a random Texan being armed. Given what we know about Texas, that's probably a certainty, did you see this story about the 8th grader who was shot and killed for brandishing a pellet gun in his school? I'm not passing any judgements here, just saying that Texans are pretty much the poster children for not f*cking around. Even a tiger would be wise to give these people a wide berth, and that makes the choice less clear. In the end, I'm going with gut instinct, and choosing the first-string QB over the third.
The pick: Bengals 20, Texans 17 (That's right, not just a cover, an outright win, and I'll throw in a missed Neil Rackers tying-FG as time expires to boot)
Detroit @ New Orleans (-10.5)
All of the people complaining about lack of defense in the bowl games this week had better find something else to do with their Saturday night, because this one could break the scoreboard. A staggering 59-point Over/Under, which I believe is the largest in playoff history, tells us if you're leaving the room for any reason, do so on commercial, or pause the DVR, because you're going to miss someting. Heck, you might want to do the same even if you're just glancing at your watch.
Detroit is plucky, they have the best receiver in football and we all remember what happened the last time the Saints were predicted to roll in a playoff game. Most troubling is that extra half point, sitting there begging for an empty-netter TD to cover in the final minute. Then again, did you watch Detroit's defense last week? If Drew Brees doesn't throw at least 5 TDs, he should be traded to Green Bay immediately for Matt Flynn straight up.
The pick: New Orleans 45, Detroit 32
Atlanta @ New York Giants (-3)
Handing either of these teams your gambling money to protect is like leaving your dog unsupervised while a steak marinates on the counter. You might come out okay, but you can't really be surprised if you come back to find a shattered dish on the floor and steak nowhere to be found. Frankly, you can't even be pissed at the bastard, even when he regurgitates on the carpeting later that evening, you should've know better, schmuck.
I don't know if we'll get the Giants who came to play, or the Giants who got killed by Washington two weeks ago. I don't know if we'll get the Matt Ryan who throws darts all over the field, or the Matt Ryan who appears to be seeing 20-foot receivers like he's on LSD. But I like the home team, and think if they play their best game, it's better than the Falcons.
The pick: New York Giants 30, Atlanta 23
Pittsburgh (-8.5) @ Denver
I'm really trying to not let all the news this week talk me out of the Steelers covering, but it's getting tough. Rashard Mendenhall has a torn ACL, no big deal, they're a pass-first team these days. Ben Roethlisberger tweaked his ankle against Cleveland, no big deal, he's one of the toughest hombres on the planet. Ryan Clark can't play in Denver beacuse his heart might explode, no big deal, who needs DBs when you're playing a guy who can't pass?
Truth be told, I waffled a bit. Not really on the game, but somewhat on the spread. When you get down to it, this game is about two questions:
How much can the Denver offense score?
Do you want to play the odds on a defensive or special teams TD?
My answer to the first question is 10-13 points, and considering that the Broncos scored 5 combined defensive and special teams TDs on the year, the second answer is probably not. It's going to take some bizzare stuff for Denver to cover, and some outlandish things for them to win. But on the other hand, they do specialize in the outlandish, so you can't count that out.
The pick: Pittsburgh 23, Denver 13
It’s been a long time since any Minnesota team found itself involved in a playoff game (October 7, 2010 to be exact), longer still since the local NFL squad factored in (January 24th, 2009) and another week beyond that since any of the four teams in town enjoyed a playoff win. I plan on marking the two-year anniversary of said victory this January 17th by standing on a street corner and having bags of excrement hurled at me. Figure I might as well literally enact what these teams have been doing figuratively during that period. If you’d like to participate, send an email to loservillepoofling@gmail.com. You do either have to supply your own poo, or buy me a few cans of Hormel chili before the 10th, need adequate time to prep.
But like I've said, the next couple of weeks are a vacation from those bothersome thoughts, as we're reminded that competent teams do exist, and get to enjoy their excellence vicariously. Sure it’s nowhere hear the same with the hometown team absent, but it’s still a display of great football (with the inevitable couple of clunkers thrown into the mix).
Several years ago, Bill Simmons, the Godfather of inane sports ramblings and a personal hero, published the NFL Playoff Gambling Manifesto. A good read if you’ve never had the pleaasure, it focuses on the basic tenets that should be adhered to in the hopes of accomplishing the improbable: Running the table by going 11-0 against the spread in playoff games.
To my knowledge, this has never been done, due to the fact that betting on football is really, really hard. If it wasn’t, Vegas wouldn’t have casinos and bookies wouldn’t drive Cadillacs. Even though I’ve lost the vast majority of football bets I’ve ever placed in my life, I’m glad it does and glad they do. A thing must be difficult in order to be worth doing, ask anyone who’s ever beaten a video game that they just forked over $50 for in 6 hours.
All in all, it’s been a mediocre NFL season for me. Placed a couple of bets, split em. Finished 4th in the family football pool, but did manage to climb out of the cellar after a brutal start. Made two fantasy football championship games, lost both. And of course there were the Vikings. The impending Packers Super Bowl victory would definitely tip the scales into negative territory. But if I can pull off the playoff perfecto, that would trump all of it, and the journey starts today!
Of course it could very well die tomorrow, just as it did last season, when the biggest can’t-miss, lead-pipe cinch in history went up in smoke. Or down in flames, I always get them confused. New Orleans vs. Seattle should’ve been as one-sided as Drunken Me vs. 2 AM Plate of Breakfast, but again, that’s why this stuff is hard. Last year, nobody at the bar was even rooting for the Saints, but after Marshawn Lynch broke 73 tackles to ice the thing, we all kind of sat around staring at each other blankly, half-dazed. So Seattle is going to Chicago? Wait, what?
This week’s slate looks even more daunting, featuring a showdown of rookie QBs, a matchup of Good (Tebow) vs. Evil (Unfrozen Caveman Quarterback) and two teams (Falcons and Giants) who make Kanye West's Twitter account seem mundane and predictable. It’s going to be tough, but that’s what we’re in business for.
But first, a quick look back at how I did with the thoughts way back in September
AFC West
San Diego (10-6)
Kansas City (8-8)
Denver (7-9)
Oakland (4-12)
To quote Dan Patrick, “the whiff”. Turn that puppy upside down and you might have something, but I make no apologies for being completely wrong on maybe the craziest division in history. If you’d have told me by the end of the year that Tim Tebow would have Denver in the playoffs, Carson Palmer would be quarterbacking Oakland and Norv Turner would miss the playoffs, yet STILL manage to keep his job?
Well, I would’ve asked you to pass it my way.
AFC South
Houston (9-7)
Indianapolis (8-8)
Tennessee (6-10)
Jacksonville (4-12)
See, now if they’d take my advice, and started Orlovsky from the get-go, things might’ve worked out different.
Nobody told me Peyton Manning was a player-coach, I didn’t think that was allowed. Also would’ve had Tennessee pegged better if I’d known Manning was going to be out all year. Then again, if I’d known a guy named T.J. Yates would be running the show for Houston over the last third of the season, I might’ve picked the Colts to win the division. Let’s just move on.
AFC North
Pittsburgh (12-4)
Baltimore (10-6)
Cleveland (7-9)
Cincinnati (4-12)
Would you buy that the Cleveland and Cincy records got juxtaposed when the blog went to the printer?
Yeah, I didn’t think so.
Once again, the Steelers continue their tradition of not doing what I called them to do, but at least they were in the ballpark. I did not see Andy Dalton coming, now I’m forced to pondering (there it is again!) the question of whether the Vikings rookie QB could’ve led the Bengals to the playoffs, had the roles been reversed. Leaning no at the moment.
AFC East
New England (12-4)
New York Jets (9-7)
Buffalo (7-9)
Miami (6-10)
Dammit Jets, things were breaking exactly how they were supposed to: Sneak into the playoffs on the last day of the season, pull out crazy defensive gameplans for playoff upsets, beat the Packers in the Super Bowl and make me look like an f’n genius! Instead, you rolled over against Miami last week, after everything had fallen your way.
Chance after squandered chance, yet you still could’ve just pulled that game out and gotten yet another shot that you didn’t deserve. You know, exactly the way you’ve been doing things for the last two years now? I already hated you, but now I hate you more, would get a Rex Ryan voodoo doll if enough fabric existed to fulfill such a request.
NFC West
St. Louis (9-7)
San Francisco (7-9)
Arizona (7-9)
Seattle (5-11)
The “Sam Bradford Tricked Me Into Thinking He Was Good” support group membership is almost as as wide and varied as the “I Dropped A Pass From Sam Bradford This Season” group.
This was my line for Arizona when likening each team to a movie:
“Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade” – You chose…poorly. Should’ve traded for Orton and saved the $40 million bucks.
And I stand by it!
NFC South
New Orleans (12-4)
Atlanta (10-6)
Tampa Bay (9-7)
Carolina (4-12)
Already working on the screenplay for a “Trading Places” remake starring Josh Freeman and Cam Newton. If I'm lucky, they'll pull the same thing next year, with Newton regressing and Freeman regaining his form. Franchises, that's where the real Hollywood money is.
Poor Bucs fans, maybe the worst thing is sports is going from being a fan of the up-and-coming team that turns out to be the “holy sh*t, we suck, what happened?!?!?!” team.
Well, the worst thing not involving the Vikings and the NFC Championship game at least.
NFC North
Green Bay (11-5)
Detroit (8-8)
Minnesota (7-9)
Chicago (7-9)
I’m always terrible with this division. I likened the Vikings to either “Die Hard With A Vengeance” or “Major League 3”, but the whole thing should’ve been “A Few Good Men”, because I can’t handle the truth of what’s going on in the NFC North these days. Was right on Chicago taking a step back, but only because they were forced to consider starting a hot dog vendor at QB, can’t crow too much about that.
NFC East
Philadelphia (11-5)
Dallas (9-7)
New York Giants (7-9)
Washington (7-9)
Philadelphia, meet St. Louis, and a very perplexed public; now both of you leave, you bother me.
I love this Giants team for some reason, and am rooting for them to win it all. It's not just their delighfully pschizophrenic season, or excellent uniforms, or the fact that their winning would royally piss off the Jets, or the possibility of a legtimate "Who was the better Manning brother?" debate 5 years from now if Eli wins a second title and duplicates this season's performance for a few more years.
Oh wait, yeah it is, all that stuff is why I love em, Go Giants!
AFC Wild Card – New York Jets over San Diego, Baltimore over Houston
NFC Wild Card – Philadelphia over Dallas, Atlanta over St. Louis
AFC Divisional – New York Jets over New England, Pittsburgh over Baltimore
NFC Divisional – New Orleans over Atlanta, Green Bay over Philadelphia
AFC Championship – New York Jets over Pittsburgh
NFC Championship – Green Bay over New Orleans
Super Bowl – New York Jets over Green Bay
Only 7 of 12 playoff teams, Super Bowl champ already gone, not my best work, I must say. But the fun of all this is that when I look around at the predictions from folks who get paid to do this for a living, most are pretty similar. That's why it's the best league on the planet!
On to this week's games:
Cincinnatti @ Houston (-3.5)
In a week of tough games to handicap, this one might be the toughest. Pretty much what you'd expect with two rookie QBs in their first playoff starts. In fact, I've had such a hard time making a pick, I've decided to employ my sister's mascot system to break the tie.
On the surface, it seems like a Bengal would have no problem dispatching a Texan, but you have to consider the likelihood of a random Texan being armed. Given what we know about Texas, that's probably a certainty, did you see this story about the 8th grader who was shot and killed for brandishing a pellet gun in his school? I'm not passing any judgements here, just saying that Texans are pretty much the poster children for not f*cking around. Even a tiger would be wise to give these people a wide berth, and that makes the choice less clear. In the end, I'm going with gut instinct, and choosing the first-string QB over the third.
The pick: Bengals 20, Texans 17 (That's right, not just a cover, an outright win, and I'll throw in a missed Neil Rackers tying-FG as time expires to boot)
Detroit @ New Orleans (-10.5)
All of the people complaining about lack of defense in the bowl games this week had better find something else to do with their Saturday night, because this one could break the scoreboard. A staggering 59-point Over/Under, which I believe is the largest in playoff history, tells us if you're leaving the room for any reason, do so on commercial, or pause the DVR, because you're going to miss someting. Heck, you might want to do the same even if you're just glancing at your watch.
Detroit is plucky, they have the best receiver in football and we all remember what happened the last time the Saints were predicted to roll in a playoff game. Most troubling is that extra half point, sitting there begging for an empty-netter TD to cover in the final minute. Then again, did you watch Detroit's defense last week? If Drew Brees doesn't throw at least 5 TDs, he should be traded to Green Bay immediately for Matt Flynn straight up.
The pick: New Orleans 45, Detroit 32
Atlanta @ New York Giants (-3)
Handing either of these teams your gambling money to protect is like leaving your dog unsupervised while a steak marinates on the counter. You might come out okay, but you can't really be surprised if you come back to find a shattered dish on the floor and steak nowhere to be found. Frankly, you can't even be pissed at the bastard, even when he regurgitates on the carpeting later that evening, you should've know better, schmuck.
I don't know if we'll get the Giants who came to play, or the Giants who got killed by Washington two weeks ago. I don't know if we'll get the Matt Ryan who throws darts all over the field, or the Matt Ryan who appears to be seeing 20-foot receivers like he's on LSD. But I like the home team, and think if they play their best game, it's better than the Falcons.
The pick: New York Giants 30, Atlanta 23
Pittsburgh (-8.5) @ Denver
I'm really trying to not let all the news this week talk me out of the Steelers covering, but it's getting tough. Rashard Mendenhall has a torn ACL, no big deal, they're a pass-first team these days. Ben Roethlisberger tweaked his ankle against Cleveland, no big deal, he's one of the toughest hombres on the planet. Ryan Clark can't play in Denver beacuse his heart might explode, no big deal, who needs DBs when you're playing a guy who can't pass?
Truth be told, I waffled a bit. Not really on the game, but somewhat on the spread. When you get down to it, this game is about two questions:
How much can the Denver offense score?
Do you want to play the odds on a defensive or special teams TD?
My answer to the first question is 10-13 points, and considering that the Broncos scored 5 combined defensive and special teams TDs on the year, the second answer is probably not. It's going to take some bizzare stuff for Denver to cover, and some outlandish things for them to win. But on the other hand, they do specialize in the outlandish, so you can't count that out.
The pick: Pittsburgh 23, Denver 13
Monday, January 24, 2011
The hits just keep on coming
Can I get a do-over on last weekend?
It started off with the Sioux giving up 8 goals while getting smoked on Friday night. They came back to win Saturday, but this creates a disturbing "large chinks in the armor" feeling going into the final 6 weeks of the season. Guess the only thing to do is chalk it up as a blip and move on, unsettling though.
Things appeared to be looking up Saturday, with the Gophers winning a Big Ten basketball game against Michigan that they needed to have. Then comes the news today that starting point guard Al Nolen has a broken foot that will require surgery and force him to miss at least a month, if not the remainder of the season. Talk about winning the battle but losing the war.
Now I'm not going to sit here and act like we just lost the second coming of Isaiah Thomas here, but Nolen was an excellent defender, ball handler and the floor leader of this team. Replacing a point guard is never easy, and it becomes doubly hard when the guy who would have been stepping in to the starting lineup transferred to Oregon two weeks ago. Just another kick in the nuts for a program that has endured more than it's share in the last year and a half. If there is one thing that you can say positively here, it's that they should have a good chance of bouncing back. Lord knows they've had enough practice lately.
And finally, to put the cherry on top of the sh*t sundae, the hated Packers are heading to the Super Bowl. At least there was one NFC North team having a worse day than our local squad, as the Bears not only lost the conference championship game, but potentially had an irreconcilable rift develop between their franchise QB and fanbase. I have to admit, while watching the game, I was of the opinion that Jay Cutler was quitting on his team. After pausing to reflect, I have to admit that's probably not the case, and he was as injured as he claimed to be. But man, the guy just looked like he was phoning it in. Standing there with his typical sour look, he looked every bit the part of a ticked off whiner saying "Eff you" to his teammates. Probably unfair criticism, and I'd turn on a dime if he won the Super Bowl for the Vikings, but I'm pretty happy that's not the guy I'm depending on for the foreseeable future. He's just a guy who makes it easy to hate him. Burning the jerseys was over the line though.
So now we wait, two weeks of Packer media fawning that will hopefully end with them getting throttled by the Steelers. But they'll probably end up winning, and I will once again be forced to ponder whether this new low is actually rock bottom, or if we still have further to sink. It's times like these that it's important to remember, things could always be worse.
It started off with the Sioux giving up 8 goals while getting smoked on Friday night. They came back to win Saturday, but this creates a disturbing "large chinks in the armor" feeling going into the final 6 weeks of the season. Guess the only thing to do is chalk it up as a blip and move on, unsettling though.
Things appeared to be looking up Saturday, with the Gophers winning a Big Ten basketball game against Michigan that they needed to have. Then comes the news today that starting point guard Al Nolen has a broken foot that will require surgery and force him to miss at least a month, if not the remainder of the season. Talk about winning the battle but losing the war.
Now I'm not going to sit here and act like we just lost the second coming of Isaiah Thomas here, but Nolen was an excellent defender, ball handler and the floor leader of this team. Replacing a point guard is never easy, and it becomes doubly hard when the guy who would have been stepping in to the starting lineup transferred to Oregon two weeks ago. Just another kick in the nuts for a program that has endured more than it's share in the last year and a half. If there is one thing that you can say positively here, it's that they should have a good chance of bouncing back. Lord knows they've had enough practice lately.
And finally, to put the cherry on top of the sh*t sundae, the hated Packers are heading to the Super Bowl. At least there was one NFC North team having a worse day than our local squad, as the Bears not only lost the conference championship game, but potentially had an irreconcilable rift develop between their franchise QB and fanbase. I have to admit, while watching the game, I was of the opinion that Jay Cutler was quitting on his team. After pausing to reflect, I have to admit that's probably not the case, and he was as injured as he claimed to be. But man, the guy just looked like he was phoning it in. Standing there with his typical sour look, he looked every bit the part of a ticked off whiner saying "Eff you" to his teammates. Probably unfair criticism, and I'd turn on a dime if he won the Super Bowl for the Vikings, but I'm pretty happy that's not the guy I'm depending on for the foreseeable future. He's just a guy who makes it easy to hate him. Burning the jerseys was over the line though.
So now we wait, two weeks of Packer media fawning that will hopefully end with them getting throttled by the Steelers. But they'll probably end up winning, and I will once again be forced to ponder whether this new low is actually rock bottom, or if we still have further to sink. It's times like these that it's important to remember, things could always be worse.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Grudging respect
The evil of grad school returned this week, delaying my ability to properly react to the events of the weekend in written form. The general takeaway is that I should stick to predictions on college hockey, rather than the NFL.
Although the nights were wrong, the 3-2/4-1 split between the Sioux and the Gophers was pretty much right on. For all my talk last week about wishing the Gophers a return to prominence, I was reminded on Friday night of the price to be paid if that should happen. Most notably whiny people calling for penalties every time someone on their team is hit. Having gotten a dose of that, I'm now throttling back on the desire to have a U of M team near the top of the standings again. But I suppose expecting to not hate your rivals is asking way too much, best you can hope for is that they fall into obscurity. Watching Minnesota play hockey this weekend did nothing to change my opinion that they can be a dangerous squad when interested, and that they will be back in the mix for league titles once they can get some continuity for a few seasons. So I will enjoy the current situation while I can.
Flipping between the football and hockey games last Saturday was interesting, as I came to a bit of a realization. Perhaps this is blasphemy as a Vikings fan, but I was rooting for the Packers. Sure there were the basic reasons, I've never gotten on board with Atlanta this season, always thought they were a flavorless team that benefited from an easy schedule. Not to say they weren't good, just didn't strike me as being on the same level as a typical #1 seed. Green Bay seemed like the better team, and their moving on to Chicago has provided a far more intriguing matchup. All of that is just a moment-in-time excuse to drop the hate for a few hours.
But in a bigger picture sense, those two games juxtaposed forced me to consider a broader question: Am I a fraud for giving fans of a rival team so much crap, considering I'm a fan of a rival team myself? On the surface, there are many parallels between the Packers and Sioux. Both play in a smaller city where they are the only show in town, both have many transplanted fans across the country (particularly MSP), both inspired a cult-like devotion among their fans. So isn't it a huge inconsistency for me to root for one, yet terrorize fans of the other across the south metro, telling them to go back to Wisconsin? Having some cognitive dissonance with this one.
Not to mention, the Packers have earned a tip of the cap this season, both the team on the field and the organization in total. Basically they've made all the right moves with this team, building a squad with talent, depth and youth. From drafting Aaron Rodgers, to hiring Dom Capers, and mining a diamond in the rough like Trammond Williams, everything they touch lately seems to turn to gold. You may dislike them, but you have to give them credit for what they've built. Their team held up to injuries, adversity and all comers, it's a performance that should be respected no matter who you root for.
Listening to some Vikings fans this week has been a bit ridiculous, as they try to protest any sort of coverage involving discussion of the upcoming game. Acting as if it shouldn't be covered locally, since it features two rivals. To that I say, you may be a better Vikings fan than me, but you're not much of a football fan. Sure I'll be rooting loudly against the Pack next season when the Purple have something on the line, but right now, relax and enjoy this historic matchup, hopefully it turns out to be a great one.
Because great games have been few and far between so far this postseason. Only one of the four Divisional matchups produced what I would call a great game last weekend (Pittsburgh-Baltimore), sure there was a great gameplan (Jets D) a great individual performance (Rodgers dissection of the Falcons) and a great deal of free time to clean the bathroom/do laundry (Seahawks football rules!), but not nearly the amount of compelling football we usually see. Every game doesn't have to be a shootout, but a tight game with at least a few offensive plays being made down the stretch makes it feel like you spent your three hours wisely, and that's always nice.
So now we move on to some matchups that few people saw coming. I went 1-3 again last week, this time my gut was right and the Costanza system failed me, it's always something. Way back at the beginning of this thing, I picked the Packers over the Colts in the Super Bowl. And even though it will probably make things that much more depressing on the Twin Cities sports scene, I'm not losing my mind that they're on the verge of making that happen. Sure either of the remaining NFC teams making a trip to the Super Bowl elevates them above the Vikings, but they were already there to begin with, so why worry about it?
When Packer or Bear fans tell me their team is better, I look them in the eye and say "Oh yeah? Well f**k you!" It's not a very graceful retort, but what am I supposed to do, argue the facts? Sadly there's just nowhere to go on that side of things. Sure you can pull out weak arguments like "Your team stunk in the '80s" or "You guys just got lucky this year", but in the end, we'll be second-class citizens until we win a title, and that's the bottom line. So embrace it and just try to enjoy some football. And don't kill the messenger, I'm in this with you, just the guy who's telling you how it is, none of us likes it.
Green Bay -3.5 over CHICAGO
Picked them to win it all in the beginning, nothing influencing me to change that now. The Bears D did a nice job the last time the two teams met, and the did win the matchup at home, but Green Bay seems to be peaking. Not to mention we're overdue for a Jay Culter meltdown, and after watching Williams play corner like he was disguised as a Falcons receiver last week, this feels like it. Only shot the Bears have is using their terrible field to turn the game into a rugby scrum, ugly it up sufficiently to pull out a late win. Frankly I think they keep the turf at that place intentionally bad to slow down opponents, but that's beside the point. Might slow down the Packers a bit, but not enough.
New York Jets +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
Because I've been picking against the Steelers all year and figure being consistently wrong is still consistency. (You're welcome Jay) The Jets looked like a team on a mission last week and the Steelers needed a Ravens meltdown to pull things out. Add to that their O-line issues and I think Pittsburgh falls just short, in an ugly game full of punts. Am I confident that Mark Sanchez will be able to make play #1 against the blitz he'll face this week? No, but you've gotta pick somebody.
Although the nights were wrong, the 3-2/4-1 split between the Sioux and the Gophers was pretty much right on. For all my talk last week about wishing the Gophers a return to prominence, I was reminded on Friday night of the price to be paid if that should happen. Most notably whiny people calling for penalties every time someone on their team is hit. Having gotten a dose of that, I'm now throttling back on the desire to have a U of M team near the top of the standings again. But I suppose expecting to not hate your rivals is asking way too much, best you can hope for is that they fall into obscurity. Watching Minnesota play hockey this weekend did nothing to change my opinion that they can be a dangerous squad when interested, and that they will be back in the mix for league titles once they can get some continuity for a few seasons. So I will enjoy the current situation while I can.
Flipping between the football and hockey games last Saturday was interesting, as I came to a bit of a realization. Perhaps this is blasphemy as a Vikings fan, but I was rooting for the Packers. Sure there were the basic reasons, I've never gotten on board with Atlanta this season, always thought they were a flavorless team that benefited from an easy schedule. Not to say they weren't good, just didn't strike me as being on the same level as a typical #1 seed. Green Bay seemed like the better team, and their moving on to Chicago has provided a far more intriguing matchup. All of that is just a moment-in-time excuse to drop the hate for a few hours.
But in a bigger picture sense, those two games juxtaposed forced me to consider a broader question: Am I a fraud for giving fans of a rival team so much crap, considering I'm a fan of a rival team myself? On the surface, there are many parallels between the Packers and Sioux. Both play in a smaller city where they are the only show in town, both have many transplanted fans across the country (particularly MSP), both inspired a cult-like devotion among their fans. So isn't it a huge inconsistency for me to root for one, yet terrorize fans of the other across the south metro, telling them to go back to Wisconsin? Having some cognitive dissonance with this one.
Not to mention, the Packers have earned a tip of the cap this season, both the team on the field and the organization in total. Basically they've made all the right moves with this team, building a squad with talent, depth and youth. From drafting Aaron Rodgers, to hiring Dom Capers, and mining a diamond in the rough like Trammond Williams, everything they touch lately seems to turn to gold. You may dislike them, but you have to give them credit for what they've built. Their team held up to injuries, adversity and all comers, it's a performance that should be respected no matter who you root for.
Listening to some Vikings fans this week has been a bit ridiculous, as they try to protest any sort of coverage involving discussion of the upcoming game. Acting as if it shouldn't be covered locally, since it features two rivals. To that I say, you may be a better Vikings fan than me, but you're not much of a football fan. Sure I'll be rooting loudly against the Pack next season when the Purple have something on the line, but right now, relax and enjoy this historic matchup, hopefully it turns out to be a great one.
Because great games have been few and far between so far this postseason. Only one of the four Divisional matchups produced what I would call a great game last weekend (Pittsburgh-Baltimore), sure there was a great gameplan (Jets D) a great individual performance (Rodgers dissection of the Falcons) and a great deal of free time to clean the bathroom/do laundry (Seahawks football rules!), but not nearly the amount of compelling football we usually see. Every game doesn't have to be a shootout, but a tight game with at least a few offensive plays being made down the stretch makes it feel like you spent your three hours wisely, and that's always nice.
So now we move on to some matchups that few people saw coming. I went 1-3 again last week, this time my gut was right and the Costanza system failed me, it's always something. Way back at the beginning of this thing, I picked the Packers over the Colts in the Super Bowl. And even though it will probably make things that much more depressing on the Twin Cities sports scene, I'm not losing my mind that they're on the verge of making that happen. Sure either of the remaining NFC teams making a trip to the Super Bowl elevates them above the Vikings, but they were already there to begin with, so why worry about it?
When Packer or Bear fans tell me their team is better, I look them in the eye and say "Oh yeah? Well f**k you!" It's not a very graceful retort, but what am I supposed to do, argue the facts? Sadly there's just nowhere to go on that side of things. Sure you can pull out weak arguments like "Your team stunk in the '80s" or "You guys just got lucky this year", but in the end, we'll be second-class citizens until we win a title, and that's the bottom line. So embrace it and just try to enjoy some football. And don't kill the messenger, I'm in this with you, just the guy who's telling you how it is, none of us likes it.
Green Bay -3.5 over CHICAGO
Picked them to win it all in the beginning, nothing influencing me to change that now. The Bears D did a nice job the last time the two teams met, and the did win the matchup at home, but Green Bay seems to be peaking. Not to mention we're overdue for a Jay Culter meltdown, and after watching Williams play corner like he was disguised as a Falcons receiver last week, this feels like it. Only shot the Bears have is using their terrible field to turn the game into a rugby scrum, ugly it up sufficiently to pull out a late win. Frankly I think they keep the turf at that place intentionally bad to slow down opponents, but that's beside the point. Might slow down the Packers a bit, but not enough.
New York Jets +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
Because I've been picking against the Steelers all year and figure being consistently wrong is still consistency. (You're welcome Jay) The Jets looked like a team on a mission last week and the Steelers needed a Ravens meltdown to pull things out. Add to that their O-line issues and I think Pittsburgh falls just short, in an ugly game full of punts. Am I confident that Mark Sanchez will be able to make play #1 against the blitz he'll face this week? No, but you've gotta pick somebody.
Monday, January 10, 2011
So that went well
Couple of things:
The NFL continues to bedevil me, with a 1-3 start to the playoff season.
Not only was I 100% certain that the Saints would pummel the Seahawks, I was also pretty darn sure the Chiefs would get the job done against the Ravens. Obviously I was woefully incorrect on both counts. But hey, that's playoff football, as unpredictable as it gets. I still have absolutely no idea how the New Orleans defense folded so totally and completely, guess I should've put greater stock in Mr. Hasselbeck. On the other side of things, it's tough to defend a team that got drubbed 30-7 at home, but if anyone can do it, it's this guy.
Kansas City was absolutely GOUGING the Baltimore defense in the running game. Jamaal Charles was doing exactly what he'd done all season, ripping off yardage at 9 yards a clip, then he put the ball on the ground and that was it. Don't understand why the Chiefs went away from the run game so fast, particularly after watching Matt Cassel do everything short of taking a dump on their logo at midfield, but there it is. I mean if you're planning on throwing indefensible picks anyway, why not just chuck a couple of jump balls to the guy who led the league in TDs? His new nickname should be The Amazing Dwayne Bowe, no magician has ever pulled off a better disappearing act.
Michael Vick looked strikingly similar to the guy who couldn't throw in Atlanta.
That's really all that I have, just know that I'm rooting for $30 million in guaranteed money and a Kevin Kolb trade to either the Vikings or the AFC, pronto. Let's get this done Philly, nevermind that you might be removing the strongest incentive factor for a guy who doesn't exactly have the greatest track record of staying motivated or on the field, SHOW HIM THE MONEY!!! Not a rip on Vick personally, more so running QBs in general, they're going to get dinged, pay them large sums of guaranteed money at your peril.
In hindsight, I was a bit harsh on the Wild last week.
Okay, fine, so they don't suck as much as Maroon 5. That's a terrible thing to say about anyone and it really isn't true. The truth is the team has fought it's way back into contention during the past month, to now sit only a tiebreaker out of the playoffs and 3 points out of the #4 seed. But there's some pesky stuff going on that makes it tough to shake my skepticism. Like the .500 home record. And the -11 goal differential that's the worst among the West's top 10 teams. And the fact they average 2.5 goals per game. And the likelihood that the team leader in goals will once again fail to crack 30.
Yes, it's all about results, so don't worry so much about the aesthetic, but the reality is it's hard to sustain things this way. We've seen it play out many times before with this team, the only difference is that the hot streak usually comes early and then it's a slow slide down the standings. With a tightly packed Western Conference that's full of good teams, the runs of good hockey can't be as sporadic as they've been so far. But hey, it is their third best first half ever and the first two resulted in playoffs. Not to mention that, more than any other sport, hockey provides a good chance to make a run from a high seed. So I apologize for all those derogatory remarks. Somewhat.
The BCS Championship Game is tonight
If limited to a two-syllable response on this, they'd be: Ho and Hum. Fortunately ink is cheap here on the internet, so I can expound. Frankly I doubt I'd be able to limit myself to two syllables about anything, two paragraphs is barely enough to curse out a Twins pitcher appropriately.
Once upon a time I would've been excited for tonight's matchup of the #1 and #2 teams in the nation. After all, a showdown between the consensus two best squads in college football is always to goal when the season starts. But lately, I just can't get excited about the sport's postseason. I'll always love the action on fall Saturdays, the great stadiums, fans and rivalries; but the proliferation of bowl games and stringing out of the conclusion are starting to wear on me.
It's now January 10th, both Auburn and Oregon played their first game over 4 months ago and their last one over a month ago. Last night the legendary Nevada Wolfpack outlasted a 7-5 Boston College team in the culmination of a rivalry as epic as there is in sports. I'd tell you more, but surely there's no need, as you were likely glued to your TV just as I was. I mean no true sports fan ever misses the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, been watching it since I was a kid myself.
But beyond the calls for a playoff that have become common, I'm even struggling to find a rooting interest here. Auburn should've been right in my wheelhouse, a historically strong program with a transcendent star player, they are fun to watch and easy to root for. But then this whole Cam Newton debacle sprung up, and it's making it hard for me to throw my support the Tigers way.
It's naive to think that money and favors aren't being handed out under the table in big-time college athletics, and really the idea of players getting perks doesn't bother me all that much. In fact, I'd be in favor of a system that paid the players some amount of money, if the logistics could be worked out so more than just the top few could afford it. But if there's one thing I can't stand, it's hypocrisy, and the NCAA has truly set a new standard in that department this season.
The rules may be dumb, and I may disagree with more than a few of them, but if they're going to be on the books, they should be enforced consistently. What has happened in the case of Mr. Newton, with the governing body admitting it knew rules were broken, but exempting the player from fault, was questionable. What happened with Ohio St, with everyone knowing and admitting what happened, to the point of suspensions being handed out, then the players being allowed to play in a bowl? Well that was ridiculous. Reserve "disgrace" and "tragedy" for the important stuff, but the NCAA's enforcement has become a total farce and it's laughable.
I'd have no problem with any of it, if it were up front an honest. This is a billion-dollar enterprise, a business of the highest order, please stop telling me that anything is about education and the rules of fair play. The unfairness of it all is demonstrated constantly these days, with big time players being the safest from punishment, lest their exclusion from a game tick the ratings down 1% and upset a sponsor.
To repeat, nothing about the corruption of the amateur athlete is my problem here, there is no longing for bygone days and love-of-the-game nonsense from me. Amateur athletics, at least in the case of football and basketball, are a fraud that has been co-opted to provide power and money to a group of people who, as far as I can tell, deserve neither. Sure there are plenty of kids out there who get opportunity and degrees they otherwise wouldn't from college sports, no doubt about it. But as far as the folks at the top, please stop and smell what you're shoveling before you come down too hard on the easy targets who know one will miss, or hold back on the big guys on New Years, because nobody will miss them against Coppin St. next fall.
So Oregon, even though you have title to the 4 ugliest jerseys in sports, even though you play that atrocious delay-option offense, which is the type of fad that creates a dearth of good pro QBs, I am rooting for you.
Go Ducks.
The NFL continues to bedevil me, with a 1-3 start to the playoff season.
Not only was I 100% certain that the Saints would pummel the Seahawks, I was also pretty darn sure the Chiefs would get the job done against the Ravens. Obviously I was woefully incorrect on both counts. But hey, that's playoff football, as unpredictable as it gets. I still have absolutely no idea how the New Orleans defense folded so totally and completely, guess I should've put greater stock in Mr. Hasselbeck. On the other side of things, it's tough to defend a team that got drubbed 30-7 at home, but if anyone can do it, it's this guy.
Kansas City was absolutely GOUGING the Baltimore defense in the running game. Jamaal Charles was doing exactly what he'd done all season, ripping off yardage at 9 yards a clip, then he put the ball on the ground and that was it. Don't understand why the Chiefs went away from the run game so fast, particularly after watching Matt Cassel do everything short of taking a dump on their logo at midfield, but there it is. I mean if you're planning on throwing indefensible picks anyway, why not just chuck a couple of jump balls to the guy who led the league in TDs? His new nickname should be The Amazing Dwayne Bowe, no magician has ever pulled off a better disappearing act.
Michael Vick looked strikingly similar to the guy who couldn't throw in Atlanta.
That's really all that I have, just know that I'm rooting for $30 million in guaranteed money and a Kevin Kolb trade to either the Vikings or the AFC, pronto. Let's get this done Philly, nevermind that you might be removing the strongest incentive factor for a guy who doesn't exactly have the greatest track record of staying motivated or on the field, SHOW HIM THE MONEY!!! Not a rip on Vick personally, more so running QBs in general, they're going to get dinged, pay them large sums of guaranteed money at your peril.
In hindsight, I was a bit harsh on the Wild last week.
Okay, fine, so they don't suck as much as Maroon 5. That's a terrible thing to say about anyone and it really isn't true. The truth is the team has fought it's way back into contention during the past month, to now sit only a tiebreaker out of the playoffs and 3 points out of the #4 seed. But there's some pesky stuff going on that makes it tough to shake my skepticism. Like the .500 home record. And the -11 goal differential that's the worst among the West's top 10 teams. And the fact they average 2.5 goals per game. And the likelihood that the team leader in goals will once again fail to crack 30.
Yes, it's all about results, so don't worry so much about the aesthetic, but the reality is it's hard to sustain things this way. We've seen it play out many times before with this team, the only difference is that the hot streak usually comes early and then it's a slow slide down the standings. With a tightly packed Western Conference that's full of good teams, the runs of good hockey can't be as sporadic as they've been so far. But hey, it is their third best first half ever and the first two resulted in playoffs. Not to mention that, more than any other sport, hockey provides a good chance to make a run from a high seed. So I apologize for all those derogatory remarks. Somewhat.
The BCS Championship Game is tonight
If limited to a two-syllable response on this, they'd be: Ho and Hum. Fortunately ink is cheap here on the internet, so I can expound. Frankly I doubt I'd be able to limit myself to two syllables about anything, two paragraphs is barely enough to curse out a Twins pitcher appropriately.
Once upon a time I would've been excited for tonight's matchup of the #1 and #2 teams in the nation. After all, a showdown between the consensus two best squads in college football is always to goal when the season starts. But lately, I just can't get excited about the sport's postseason. I'll always love the action on fall Saturdays, the great stadiums, fans and rivalries; but the proliferation of bowl games and stringing out of the conclusion are starting to wear on me.
It's now January 10th, both Auburn and Oregon played their first game over 4 months ago and their last one over a month ago. Last night the legendary Nevada Wolfpack outlasted a 7-5 Boston College team in the culmination of a rivalry as epic as there is in sports. I'd tell you more, but surely there's no need, as you were likely glued to your TV just as I was. I mean no true sports fan ever misses the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, been watching it since I was a kid myself.
But beyond the calls for a playoff that have become common, I'm even struggling to find a rooting interest here. Auburn should've been right in my wheelhouse, a historically strong program with a transcendent star player, they are fun to watch and easy to root for. But then this whole Cam Newton debacle sprung up, and it's making it hard for me to throw my support the Tigers way.
It's naive to think that money and favors aren't being handed out under the table in big-time college athletics, and really the idea of players getting perks doesn't bother me all that much. In fact, I'd be in favor of a system that paid the players some amount of money, if the logistics could be worked out so more than just the top few could afford it. But if there's one thing I can't stand, it's hypocrisy, and the NCAA has truly set a new standard in that department this season.
The rules may be dumb, and I may disagree with more than a few of them, but if they're going to be on the books, they should be enforced consistently. What has happened in the case of Mr. Newton, with the governing body admitting it knew rules were broken, but exempting the player from fault, was questionable. What happened with Ohio St, with everyone knowing and admitting what happened, to the point of suspensions being handed out, then the players being allowed to play in a bowl? Well that was ridiculous. Reserve "disgrace" and "tragedy" for the important stuff, but the NCAA's enforcement has become a total farce and it's laughable.
I'd have no problem with any of it, if it were up front an honest. This is a billion-dollar enterprise, a business of the highest order, please stop telling me that anything is about education and the rules of fair play. The unfairness of it all is demonstrated constantly these days, with big time players being the safest from punishment, lest their exclusion from a game tick the ratings down 1% and upset a sponsor.
To repeat, nothing about the corruption of the amateur athlete is my problem here, there is no longing for bygone days and love-of-the-game nonsense from me. Amateur athletics, at least in the case of football and basketball, are a fraud that has been co-opted to provide power and money to a group of people who, as far as I can tell, deserve neither. Sure there are plenty of kids out there who get opportunity and degrees they otherwise wouldn't from college sports, no doubt about it. But as far as the folks at the top, please stop and smell what you're shoveling before you come down too hard on the easy targets who know one will miss, or hold back on the big guys on New Years, because nobody will miss them against Coppin St. next fall.
So Oregon, even though you have title to the 4 ugliest jerseys in sports, even though you play that atrocious delay-option offense, which is the type of fad that creates a dearth of good pro QBs, I am rooting for you.
Go Ducks.
Friday, January 7, 2011
Playoffs? PLAYOFFS???
Alright, first off, because it has to be done, an all-time classic.
Seems like only yesterday I was kicking off the NFL season with a few dozen terrible predictions, now here we are on the eve of the wild card round. My performance was pretty mediocre, only 6 out of 12 playoff teams identified, with a few correct hits (KC, NE, BAL) and a lot of huge whiffs (PIT, SF, DAL, MIN, TB winning one game, seriously?). Week 15 was a perfect illustration of the knife edge that is the NFL season, had the Giants simply held onto a 21-point second half lead over Philly, they'd likely be here, another team would be at home, and I'd likely have one more correct answer.
But as I've said many times, that's what's great about this league, and I've never been more grateful for that than I am now, as a fan of a 6-10 pending rebuilding project. You never know from one year to the next which squads will rise and fall, KC went from 4 wins to a division title, no reason there can't be some hope entering next season...unless you're a Carolina fan of course.
The one thing we all saw coming? The NFC West was BAD! Maybe it surprised us a bit by going even lower than we thought it could go, but I think most people were prepared for an epic stinkbomb. At least Sam Bradford looked competent in leading the Rams out of the wilderness, perhaps some of those 3 PM West Coast games will be worth watching in the coming years. I penned the following before Week One of the season, and it makes me chuckle to look back at it now:
NFC West
Worst. Division. Ever. What was wrong with 3 divisions anyway? 3 champs, 3 wild cards, none of this “terrible division champs sneaking into the playoffs with an 8-8 record” garbage. Is it going to take a 7-9 division champion getting a home playoff game against an 11-5 wild card before this gets fixed? Anyway, somebody’s gotta win this thing.
So what's happening tomorrow? The 11-5 Saints are going on the road to face the 7-9 Seahawks, you really can't overemphasize how silly all of this is, count me in the camp that says a minimum of 8 wins should be required to make the playoffs. If you want to look back an laugh at my other prognostications that were quite so great, you can do so here.
Sort of fell of the pick train the last couple of weeks or so, it was the holidays, I was traveling, you know how it goes. Ben and I made Week 16 picks in a bar in Phoenix, both of us going 9-7. How did the records end up?
Brent: 63-54-1 (.534 winning %)
Ben: 71-60-2 (.530 winning %)
Pat: 107-99-2 (.514 winning %)
I'd make the argument that I had the tougher run at things because I started picking early in the season, when there was less info to go on, but I think when these guys started, I was 12 games over .500. The more you know (or think you know), the worse you do. That sums up football gambling in a nutshell.
So now we move on to handicapping the Wild Card round, but first I'd like to clear up one point of confusion: These are the 2010 NFL Playoffs
Trying to discuss a playoff game with someone too often sounds like a Muslim and Christian debating when the Bronze Age came to a close. You'd think it would be simpler for us football fans, being that we can at least agree on what year it is currently, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Frankly if I had my way, there'd be a law passed, officially defining the fact that an NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl are tagged with the year in which the season began, regardless of when they actually take place. I know it's going to be a little weird once the NFL moves to a 20-game schedule and we're referring to a game that takes place in early March as if it happened 3 months earlier, but trust me, it will save us all a lot of headaches. Write you're Congressman and tell them we need to package this as part of the 2011 Sports Omnibus Bill, along with a provision outlawing bowl games taking place after New Year's Day that don't feature at least one ranked team and the DH. That's right, I went there, I like pitchers hitting.
Back to the matter at hand, Wild Card weekend, the second best NFL weekend of the year. Typically Divisional weekend is the culmination of everything we've been following for the previous 20-some Sundays. The cream rises to the top and we get to witness 4 games played by good teams playing their best football. Some years, like last year for instance, things get flipped, with the Wild Card providing the superior drama and Divisional games ending up anti-climactic. Championship Sunday is always the same, one classic and one clunker; but that usually stems from some epic upset the weekend before, so we let that slide.
As it's name would imply, Wild Card weekend can be a tough one to peg. Sure the broad strokes are there for anyone to see, and sometimes a flat-out lousy team shows up as an easy mark (looking at you Seattle), but most of the time, confusion reigns. Closest thing to a pattern emerging is one shootout, one grind-it-out defensive struggle, one upset and one knew-it-all-along game.
Sometimes you get a bunch of blowouts, which is always a buzzkill, but usually even that type of weekend provides enough moments to leave you satisfied with what you saw. I'd liken it to a mediocre move with a redeeming scene or two, like Halle Berry being topless in Swordfish, or Terri Hatcher being topless in Heaven's Prisoners, or Halle Berry (again) getting aggressively and unexpectedly throwndown by Bill Bob Thornton in Monster's Ball. Sense the pattern developing here? Some things are just game-changers and can validate two hours that would've otherwise been considered wasted. I mean I don't want to see Black Swan, but I will, and you know exactly why. And it will be worth it. And that's what I'm talking about.
(Matter of fact, it would be a great idea to repackage all of the scenes like this into it's own two-hour film, call it "The one part you wanted to see when you walked into this piece of crap" or something along those lines with more brevity. I mean how great would it be to say to somebody, "No, I didn't see Black Swan, but I did see the Mila Kunis-Natalie Portman lesbian part". Then again, I suppose that's what the Internet is for. Speaking of which, I'll be back in a jiffy.)
So moving from, which of this weekend's games is which?
The knew-it-all-along
New Orleans -11 over SEATTLE
Play this game with me, how high does this line have to go before you're comfortable taking Seattle? At least 14, right? Likely to 14 1/2. This would appear to be easy money for anyone interested in making some. Sure the Seahawks are playing at home, sure Matt Hasselbeck is returning (bad move in my estimation, I think God helped them get past St. Louis because Charlie Whitehurst reminded him of his son), but do you really think Seattle is going to do anything but show up and get crushed here? Similar to last season, when we all tried to talk ourselves into Philly bouncing back after getting annihilated Week 17 at Dallas, the writing is on the wall here. Sometimes you just need to take what is given.
Two stats I heard this week piqued my interest about this game:
The upset
KANSAS CITY +3 over Baltimore
I've liked the Chiefs to cover all week, but today I decided that I'm all in on an outright win. The combo platter of home dog, strong running game, concerns about Baltimore's pass offense and simply wanting it to be so have finally pushed me over the edge. Sure KC is flawed, they just got worked by the Raiders in a game where it appeared they might've been trying to get their QB killed. But I think to be getting points at home, a team should either really stink or be really overmatched, both are the case with Seattle, but I don't think either applies here.
There is a strength-on-strength problem for the Chiefs to be sure, the Ravens run D is always stout and could likely turn them into a one-dimensional team. But this season hasn't been like most, teams have been able to get to them at times and KC runs the ball better than most. So I'm picking the upset, even though it probably spells doom for the poor Chiefs, but hey, things have worked out so far.
The grinder
INDIANAPOLIS -3 over New York Jets
Seems odd to be mentioning "Indianapolis" and "defensive struggle" in the same breath, but that's just what I'm feeling. To clarify, I don't think there will be no points scored, in fact I'm expecting something in the 24-20 range. But I do think everything these teams do get will be hard to come by, and will take a toll on whoever wins that they won't recover from going into the next round.
The biggest reason I'm rolling with Indy is Peyton Manning, obviously. But the second biggest is that their run defense, which was a trainwreck most of the season, has been surprisingly competent these past few weeks. Chris Johnson and MoJo were both held down by the Colts D recently, and if they can do the same job on the Jets running game, then it's on Mark Sanchez to find a way. And if you know anything about me, it's that I do not put my faith in Mark Sanchez.
Not to mention the Jets D has left me cold in recent weeks, with a whole lotta points surrendered to the Pats and Bears. They beat a banged-up Steelers team and smacked Buffalo, but all in all, I think Indy will take care of business at home in a tight one.
The shootout
Green Bay +3 over PHILADELPHIA
Went back and forth a few times here before settling on the team I felt had the superior defense. Michael Vick is the ultimate wild card (no pun intended), and Philly's other playmakers aren't that far behind, but I feel like he's banged up and will be just one step slow.
The call here is Green Bay goes up big, can't hold the lead, Philly rallies furiously, but comes up just short. Should be a great game, and I'd like nothing better than to see the outcome go the other way. But I've had the Packers winning this thing since day one, and despite a season of ups and downs, don't see any reason to change that prediction now. Man I hope I'm wrong though.
Anyway, enjoy what should be a great weekend of football.
Seems like only yesterday I was kicking off the NFL season with a few dozen terrible predictions, now here we are on the eve of the wild card round. My performance was pretty mediocre, only 6 out of 12 playoff teams identified, with a few correct hits (KC, NE, BAL) and a lot of huge whiffs (PIT, SF, DAL, MIN, TB winning one game, seriously?). Week 15 was a perfect illustration of the knife edge that is the NFL season, had the Giants simply held onto a 21-point second half lead over Philly, they'd likely be here, another team would be at home, and I'd likely have one more correct answer.
But as I've said many times, that's what's great about this league, and I've never been more grateful for that than I am now, as a fan of a 6-10 pending rebuilding project. You never know from one year to the next which squads will rise and fall, KC went from 4 wins to a division title, no reason there can't be some hope entering next season...unless you're a Carolina fan of course.
The one thing we all saw coming? The NFC West was BAD! Maybe it surprised us a bit by going even lower than we thought it could go, but I think most people were prepared for an epic stinkbomb. At least Sam Bradford looked competent in leading the Rams out of the wilderness, perhaps some of those 3 PM West Coast games will be worth watching in the coming years. I penned the following before Week One of the season, and it makes me chuckle to look back at it now:
NFC West
Worst. Division. Ever. What was wrong with 3 divisions anyway? 3 champs, 3 wild cards, none of this “terrible division champs sneaking into the playoffs with an 8-8 record” garbage. Is it going to take a 7-9 division champion getting a home playoff game against an 11-5 wild card before this gets fixed? Anyway, somebody’s gotta win this thing.
So what's happening tomorrow? The 11-5 Saints are going on the road to face the 7-9 Seahawks, you really can't overemphasize how silly all of this is, count me in the camp that says a minimum of 8 wins should be required to make the playoffs. If you want to look back an laugh at my other prognostications that were quite so great, you can do so here.
Sort of fell of the pick train the last couple of weeks or so, it was the holidays, I was traveling, you know how it goes. Ben and I made Week 16 picks in a bar in Phoenix, both of us going 9-7. How did the records end up?
Brent: 63-54-1 (.534 winning %)
Ben: 71-60-2 (.530 winning %)
Pat: 107-99-2 (.514 winning %)
I'd make the argument that I had the tougher run at things because I started picking early in the season, when there was less info to go on, but I think when these guys started, I was 12 games over .500. The more you know (or think you know), the worse you do. That sums up football gambling in a nutshell.
So now we move on to handicapping the Wild Card round, but first I'd like to clear up one point of confusion: These are the 2010 NFL Playoffs
Trying to discuss a playoff game with someone too often sounds like a Muslim and Christian debating when the Bronze Age came to a close. You'd think it would be simpler for us football fans, being that we can at least agree on what year it is currently, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Frankly if I had my way, there'd be a law passed, officially defining the fact that an NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl are tagged with the year in which the season began, regardless of when they actually take place. I know it's going to be a little weird once the NFL moves to a 20-game schedule and we're referring to a game that takes place in early March as if it happened 3 months earlier, but trust me, it will save us all a lot of headaches. Write you're Congressman and tell them we need to package this as part of the 2011 Sports Omnibus Bill, along with a provision outlawing bowl games taking place after New Year's Day that don't feature at least one ranked team and the DH. That's right, I went there, I like pitchers hitting.
Back to the matter at hand, Wild Card weekend, the second best NFL weekend of the year. Typically Divisional weekend is the culmination of everything we've been following for the previous 20-some Sundays. The cream rises to the top and we get to witness 4 games played by good teams playing their best football. Some years, like last year for instance, things get flipped, with the Wild Card providing the superior drama and Divisional games ending up anti-climactic. Championship Sunday is always the same, one classic and one clunker; but that usually stems from some epic upset the weekend before, so we let that slide.
As it's name would imply, Wild Card weekend can be a tough one to peg. Sure the broad strokes are there for anyone to see, and sometimes a flat-out lousy team shows up as an easy mark (looking at you Seattle), but most of the time, confusion reigns. Closest thing to a pattern emerging is one shootout, one grind-it-out defensive struggle, one upset and one knew-it-all-along game.
Sometimes you get a bunch of blowouts, which is always a buzzkill, but usually even that type of weekend provides enough moments to leave you satisfied with what you saw. I'd liken it to a mediocre move with a redeeming scene or two, like Halle Berry being topless in Swordfish, or Terri Hatcher being topless in Heaven's Prisoners, or Halle Berry (again) getting aggressively and unexpectedly throwndown by Bill Bob Thornton in Monster's Ball. Sense the pattern developing here? Some things are just game-changers and can validate two hours that would've otherwise been considered wasted. I mean I don't want to see Black Swan, but I will, and you know exactly why. And it will be worth it. And that's what I'm talking about.
(Matter of fact, it would be a great idea to repackage all of the scenes like this into it's own two-hour film, call it "The one part you wanted to see when you walked into this piece of crap" or something along those lines with more brevity. I mean how great would it be to say to somebody, "No, I didn't see Black Swan, but I did see the Mila Kunis-Natalie Portman lesbian part". Then again, I suppose that's what the Internet is for. Speaking of which, I'll be back in a jiffy.)
So moving from, which of this weekend's games is which?
The knew-it-all-along
New Orleans -11 over SEATTLE
Play this game with me, how high does this line have to go before you're comfortable taking Seattle? At least 14, right? Likely to 14 1/2. This would appear to be easy money for anyone interested in making some. Sure the Seahawks are playing at home, sure Matt Hasselbeck is returning (bad move in my estimation, I think God helped them get past St. Louis because Charlie Whitehurst reminded him of his son), but do you really think Seattle is going to do anything but show up and get crushed here? Similar to last season, when we all tried to talk ourselves into Philly bouncing back after getting annihilated Week 17 at Dallas, the writing is on the wall here. Sometimes you just need to take what is given.
Two stats I heard this week piqued my interest about this game:
- Nobody in football uses big blitzes (basically bringing the house) more than the Saints. No QB in football has a higher passer rating against the big blitz than Matt Hasselbeck
- All of the Seahawks nine losses have come by 15 points or more
The upset
KANSAS CITY +3 over Baltimore
I've liked the Chiefs to cover all week, but today I decided that I'm all in on an outright win. The combo platter of home dog, strong running game, concerns about Baltimore's pass offense and simply wanting it to be so have finally pushed me over the edge. Sure KC is flawed, they just got worked by the Raiders in a game where it appeared they might've been trying to get their QB killed. But I think to be getting points at home, a team should either really stink or be really overmatched, both are the case with Seattle, but I don't think either applies here.
There is a strength-on-strength problem for the Chiefs to be sure, the Ravens run D is always stout and could likely turn them into a one-dimensional team. But this season hasn't been like most, teams have been able to get to them at times and KC runs the ball better than most. So I'm picking the upset, even though it probably spells doom for the poor Chiefs, but hey, things have worked out so far.
The grinder
INDIANAPOLIS -3 over New York Jets
Seems odd to be mentioning "Indianapolis" and "defensive struggle" in the same breath, but that's just what I'm feeling. To clarify, I don't think there will be no points scored, in fact I'm expecting something in the 24-20 range. But I do think everything these teams do get will be hard to come by, and will take a toll on whoever wins that they won't recover from going into the next round.
The biggest reason I'm rolling with Indy is Peyton Manning, obviously. But the second biggest is that their run defense, which was a trainwreck most of the season, has been surprisingly competent these past few weeks. Chris Johnson and MoJo were both held down by the Colts D recently, and if they can do the same job on the Jets running game, then it's on Mark Sanchez to find a way. And if you know anything about me, it's that I do not put my faith in Mark Sanchez.
Not to mention the Jets D has left me cold in recent weeks, with a whole lotta points surrendered to the Pats and Bears. They beat a banged-up Steelers team and smacked Buffalo, but all in all, I think Indy will take care of business at home in a tight one.
The shootout
Green Bay +3 over PHILADELPHIA
Went back and forth a few times here before settling on the team I felt had the superior defense. Michael Vick is the ultimate wild card (no pun intended), and Philly's other playmakers aren't that far behind, but I feel like he's banged up and will be just one step slow.
The call here is Green Bay goes up big, can't hold the lead, Philly rallies furiously, but comes up just short. Should be a great game, and I'd like nothing better than to see the outcome go the other way. But I've had the Packers winning this thing since day one, and despite a season of ups and downs, don't see any reason to change that prediction now. Man I hope I'm wrong though.
Anyway, enjoy what should be a great weekend of football.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Once more, heartbreak
Well, I guess that's why the blog is named Loserville. In what has become their trademark, the Minnesota Vikings have managed to blow another huge game in improbable fashion. Despite dominating much of the action, moving the ball at will and coming up with key defensive stops against a great offense, things ended up the way they always seem to end here in Loserville USA, with the other team celebrating, and all of us left to choke down another gut-wrenching defeat.
I find myself at a loss for words today, after watching yesterday's brutal display. There have been many bad Vikings defeats over the years, but this one might be the most agonizing of them all on a personal level, given that I better understand what was at stake. I was 19 years old for the 1999 NFC Championship game, which previously stood as the greatest Vikings defeat of my lifetime. Now, at 30, Ive seen 9 seasons pass since the team last made it this far, and understand it is a rare occurrence that is guaranteed to no one. These last few months, the stars aligned for a very special season, one that is not likely to be repeated any time soon, even if the team returns intact. Winning in the NFL requires equal parts skill and luck, every year teams rise and fall on the whim of the latter, so forgive me if I can't get on board with the talk of a promising future I'm hearing today.
It would in fact be silly to look forward, without first considering the more troubling question of whether it's wise to continue putting myself out there for this team at all. You might call this reaction knee-jerk, but it's been a long time coming, given the string of horrible disappointments doled out by the Purple during my life. Like an abused spouse, I've stuck things out in the misguided belief that things would eventually change, that there was a relationship here important enough to salvage, and that it would prevail over all else. I now realize that opinion is as dumb as it is misguided, and my breaking point with this team might've finally been reached. Perhaps I'll never be able to stop watching, but somehow it has to be on a more casual basis, because I can't take much more.
Today is a soul-crushing mix of anger and despair that can't be endured with any regularity. It's not about the fumbles, the penalties, or any other particular gaffe, it's about the creeping dread of knowing, somehow someway, that a supernatural force is at work against this team. No matter what they do, no matter how well things are going or how good the outcome looks, things will end poorly. I did a great job of remembering this for 6 days of buildup, 6 hours of pregame and 58 minutes of football; only then, as Brett Favre manuverued the team down the field on the final drive, did I allow myself a moment of belief that the Vikings could actually win the game. It's as if God himself was waiting for even the most cynical and fatalistic fans to be drawn in, before he glanced over and said "That's it, we've got them, now pull the rug." It's not THAT we lose, it's HOW we lose that makes this team so very special.
You may not believe in curses, but I offer yesterday's game as Exhibit A to the contrary; a football game can be lost a thousand different ways, it is not coincidence that the Vikings always find the most awful, soul-crushing way to do so. The Saints could've come out and blown us off the field, Chilly could've pissed it down his leg with an anemic offensive gameplan, Favre couldve went gunslinger from the get go and thrown us out of it early; any of these wouldve been a welcome change from what actually transpired. Those mistakes would've been understandable, they wouldve fit with past history, and not caused the terrible despair of watching the team storm down the field time after time, only to see one awful mistake after another undo those efforts.
As for where we go from here? No idea. Not one. Frankly I don't even care to discuss it. Sure the team is young, the nucleus will remain together, Favre might even be back for another season, who knows? But all the standard offseason chatter of next years team and it's prospects is rendered moot by the cloud hanging over the franchise. There is no way I could bring myself to believe we will win, ever. I get accused of being overly negative at times, and I'm trying to work on that, but never again in regard to the Minnesota Vikings. No amount of fear and loathing could be considered eccessive here; the days of this team getting the benefit of the doubt for one moment on anything have long passed, I'm fed up, utterly ****ed and defeated. I've got nothing left. They can't say or do anything, short of holding the Lombardi Trophy at midfield, that will convince me I will see a Super Bowl title before I die.
It's become clear that it's just never going to happen, and that's why today is so tough.
I find myself at a loss for words today, after watching yesterday's brutal display. There have been many bad Vikings defeats over the years, but this one might be the most agonizing of them all on a personal level, given that I better understand what was at stake. I was 19 years old for the 1999 NFC Championship game, which previously stood as the greatest Vikings defeat of my lifetime. Now, at 30, Ive seen 9 seasons pass since the team last made it this far, and understand it is a rare occurrence that is guaranteed to no one. These last few months, the stars aligned for a very special season, one that is not likely to be repeated any time soon, even if the team returns intact. Winning in the NFL requires equal parts skill and luck, every year teams rise and fall on the whim of the latter, so forgive me if I can't get on board with the talk of a promising future I'm hearing today.
It would in fact be silly to look forward, without first considering the more troubling question of whether it's wise to continue putting myself out there for this team at all. You might call this reaction knee-jerk, but it's been a long time coming, given the string of horrible disappointments doled out by the Purple during my life. Like an abused spouse, I've stuck things out in the misguided belief that things would eventually change, that there was a relationship here important enough to salvage, and that it would prevail over all else. I now realize that opinion is as dumb as it is misguided, and my breaking point with this team might've finally been reached. Perhaps I'll never be able to stop watching, but somehow it has to be on a more casual basis, because I can't take much more.
Today is a soul-crushing mix of anger and despair that can't be endured with any regularity. It's not about the fumbles, the penalties, or any other particular gaffe, it's about the creeping dread of knowing, somehow someway, that a supernatural force is at work against this team. No matter what they do, no matter how well things are going or how good the outcome looks, things will end poorly. I did a great job of remembering this for 6 days of buildup, 6 hours of pregame and 58 minutes of football; only then, as Brett Favre manuverued the team down the field on the final drive, did I allow myself a moment of belief that the Vikings could actually win the game. It's as if God himself was waiting for even the most cynical and fatalistic fans to be drawn in, before he glanced over and said "That's it, we've got them, now pull the rug." It's not THAT we lose, it's HOW we lose that makes this team so very special.
You may not believe in curses, but I offer yesterday's game as Exhibit A to the contrary; a football game can be lost a thousand different ways, it is not coincidence that the Vikings always find the most awful, soul-crushing way to do so. The Saints could've come out and blown us off the field, Chilly could've pissed it down his leg with an anemic offensive gameplan, Favre couldve went gunslinger from the get go and thrown us out of it early; any of these wouldve been a welcome change from what actually transpired. Those mistakes would've been understandable, they wouldve fit with past history, and not caused the terrible despair of watching the team storm down the field time after time, only to see one awful mistake after another undo those efforts.
As for where we go from here? No idea. Not one. Frankly I don't even care to discuss it. Sure the team is young, the nucleus will remain together, Favre might even be back for another season, who knows? But all the standard offseason chatter of next years team and it's prospects is rendered moot by the cloud hanging over the franchise. There is no way I could bring myself to believe we will win, ever. I get accused of being overly negative at times, and I'm trying to work on that, but never again in regard to the Minnesota Vikings. No amount of fear and loathing could be considered eccessive here; the days of this team getting the benefit of the doubt for one moment on anything have long passed, I'm fed up, utterly ****ed and defeated. I've got nothing left. They can't say or do anything, short of holding the Lombardi Trophy at midfield, that will convince me I will see a Super Bowl title before I die.
It's become clear that it's just never going to happen, and that's why today is so tough.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Reflections on the weekend that was
Things were looking pretty ugly when I woke up this past Sunday morning, and I'm not talking about the face staring back at me in the mirror. My favorite college hockey team had just dropped 3 points to a team below it in the standings, getting throttled on Saturday in the process. Favorite pro hockey allowed 5 goals to a team that couldn't score, wasting a hat trick and starting off 0-2 against two very beatable teams on it's current road trip. My playoff fantasy picks bombed, favorite college hoops squad was (about to be) losing, and to top it all off, I had a mean hangover; needless to say, I've been better.
I was busy thinking up an angry, hate-filled screed to start Monday morning, when something miraculous happened; for the first time in recent memory, the Vikings redeemed the entire lousy weekend. I felt pretty good about the game going in, spent the week trying to shake my fatalistic tendencies with the team and focus on getting a win. All the hype from the national media talking up the Cowboys as the hottest team in football wasn't helping, nor was the pregame show full of Dallas love, or the play-by-play team. Joe Buck and Troy Aikman should've changed their names to Neal and Bob for that game, because that's what they were doing to the Cowboys for a full 15 minutes before kickoff; although I suppose when the booth is a former Cowboy QB and the King of the Viking Haters, that's what you get.
But all that noise turn out to be just that, as the Vikes defense turned in a pummeling display of pressure, Tony Romo unleashed the little girl we all knew was lurking inside of him and the Purple pulled off an impressive victory. Now it's on to the Big Easy and a potential trip to the Super Bowl, I don't want to get my hopes up too much, but this positivity thing might be working. More to come on this as I gear up for another big weekend and try to continue my run of correct NFL playoff picks (4-0 last week, yeah I got all the rest wrong, screw you).
I was busy thinking up an angry, hate-filled screed to start Monday morning, when something miraculous happened; for the first time in recent memory, the Vikings redeemed the entire lousy weekend. I felt pretty good about the game going in, spent the week trying to shake my fatalistic tendencies with the team and focus on getting a win. All the hype from the national media talking up the Cowboys as the hottest team in football wasn't helping, nor was the pregame show full of Dallas love, or the play-by-play team. Joe Buck and Troy Aikman should've changed their names to Neal and Bob for that game, because that's what they were doing to the Cowboys for a full 15 minutes before kickoff; although I suppose when the booth is a former Cowboy QB and the King of the Viking Haters, that's what you get.
But all that noise turn out to be just that, as the Vikes defense turned in a pummeling display of pressure, Tony Romo unleashed the little girl we all knew was lurking inside of him and the Purple pulled off an impressive victory. Now it's on to the Big Easy and a potential trip to the Super Bowl, I don't want to get my hopes up too much, but this positivity thing might be working. More to come on this as I gear up for another big weekend and try to continue my run of correct NFL playoff picks (4-0 last week, yeah I got all the rest wrong, screw you).
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