Time to take a break from wallowing in our misery to stop and enjoy the only good thing about the ending to the NFL season: The Playoffs.
It’s been a long time since any Minnesota team found itself involved in a playoff game (October 7, 2010 to be exact), longer still since the local NFL squad factored in (January 24th, 2009) and another week beyond that since any of the four teams in town enjoyed a playoff win. I plan on marking the two-year anniversary of said victory this January 17th by standing on a street corner and having bags of excrement hurled at me. Figure I might as well literally enact what these teams have been doing figuratively during that period. If you’d like to participate, send an email to loservillepoofling@gmail.com. You do either have to supply your own poo, or buy me a few cans of Hormel chili before the 10th, need adequate time to prep.
But like I've said, the next couple of weeks are a vacation from those bothersome thoughts, as we're reminded that competent teams do exist, and get to enjoy their excellence vicariously. Sure it’s nowhere hear the same with the hometown team absent, but it’s still a display of great football (with the inevitable couple of clunkers thrown into the mix).
Several years ago, Bill Simmons, the Godfather of inane sports ramblings and a personal hero, published the NFL Playoff Gambling Manifesto. A good read if you’ve never had the pleaasure, it focuses on the basic tenets that should be adhered to in the hopes of accomplishing the improbable: Running the table by going 11-0 against the spread in playoff games.
To my knowledge, this has never been done, due to the fact that betting on football is really, really hard. If it wasn’t, Vegas wouldn’t have casinos and bookies wouldn’t drive Cadillacs. Even though I’ve lost the vast majority of football bets I’ve ever placed in my life, I’m glad it does and glad they do. A thing must be difficult in order to be worth doing, ask anyone who’s ever beaten a video game that they just forked over $50 for in 6 hours.
All in all, it’s been a mediocre NFL season for me. Placed a couple of bets, split em. Finished 4th in the family football pool, but did manage to climb out of the cellar after a brutal start. Made two fantasy football championship games, lost both. And of course there were the Vikings. The impending Packers Super Bowl victory would definitely tip the scales into negative territory. But if I can pull off the playoff perfecto, that would trump all of it, and the journey starts today!
Of course it could very well die tomorrow, just as it did last season, when the biggest can’t-miss, lead-pipe cinch in history went up in smoke. Or down in flames, I always get them confused. New Orleans vs. Seattle should’ve been as one-sided as Drunken Me vs. 2 AM Plate of Breakfast, but again, that’s why this stuff is hard. Last year, nobody at the bar was even rooting for the Saints, but after Marshawn Lynch broke 73 tackles to ice the thing, we all kind of sat around staring at each other blankly, half-dazed. So Seattle is going to Chicago? Wait, what?
This week’s slate looks even more daunting, featuring a showdown of rookie QBs, a matchup of Good (Tebow) vs. Evil (Unfrozen Caveman Quarterback) and two teams (Falcons and Giants) who make Kanye West's Twitter account seem mundane and predictable. It’s going to be tough, but that’s what we’re in business for.
But first, a quick look back at how I did with the thoughts way back in September
AFC West
San Diego (10-6)
Kansas City (8-8)
Denver (7-9)
Oakland (4-12)
To quote Dan Patrick, “the whiff”. Turn that puppy upside down and you might have something, but I make no apologies for being completely wrong on maybe the craziest division in history. If you’d have told me by the end of the year that Tim Tebow would have Denver in the playoffs, Carson Palmer would be quarterbacking Oakland and Norv Turner would miss the playoffs, yet STILL manage to keep his job?
Well, I would’ve asked you to pass it my way.
AFC South
Houston (9-7)
Indianapolis (8-8)
Tennessee (6-10)
Jacksonville (4-12)
See, now if they’d take my advice, and started Orlovsky from the get-go, things might’ve worked out different.
Nobody told me Peyton Manning was a player-coach, I didn’t think that was allowed. Also would’ve had Tennessee pegged better if I’d known Manning was going to be out all year. Then again, if I’d known a guy named T.J. Yates would be running the show for Houston over the last third of the season, I might’ve picked the Colts to win the division. Let’s just move on.
AFC North
Pittsburgh (12-4)
Baltimore (10-6)
Cleveland (7-9)
Cincinnati (4-12)
Would you buy that the Cleveland and Cincy records got juxtaposed when the blog went to the printer?
Yeah, I didn’t think so.
Once again, the Steelers continue their tradition of not doing what I called them to do, but at least they were in the ballpark. I did not see Andy Dalton coming, now I’m forced to pondering (there it is again!) the question of whether the Vikings rookie QB could’ve led the Bengals to the playoffs, had the roles been reversed. Leaning no at the moment.
AFC East
New England (12-4)
New York Jets (9-7)
Buffalo (7-9)
Miami (6-10)
Dammit Jets, things were breaking exactly how they were supposed to: Sneak into the playoffs on the last day of the season, pull out crazy defensive gameplans for playoff upsets, beat the Packers in the Super Bowl and make me look like an f’n genius! Instead, you rolled over against Miami last week, after everything had fallen your way.
Chance after squandered chance, yet you still could’ve just pulled that game out and gotten yet another shot that you didn’t deserve. You know, exactly the way you’ve been doing things for the last two years now? I already hated you, but now I hate you more, would get a Rex Ryan voodoo doll if enough fabric existed to fulfill such a request.
NFC West
St. Louis (9-7)
San Francisco (7-9)
Arizona (7-9)
Seattle (5-11)
The “Sam Bradford Tricked Me Into Thinking He Was Good” support group membership is almost as as wide and varied as the “I Dropped A Pass From Sam Bradford This Season” group.
This was my line for Arizona when likening each team to a movie:
“Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade” – You chose…poorly. Should’ve traded for Orton and saved the $40 million bucks.
And I stand by it!
NFC South
New Orleans (12-4)
Atlanta (10-6)
Tampa Bay (9-7)
Carolina (4-12)
Already working on the screenplay for a “Trading Places” remake starring Josh Freeman and Cam Newton. If I'm lucky, they'll pull the same thing next year, with Newton regressing and Freeman regaining his form. Franchises, that's where the real Hollywood money is.
Poor Bucs fans, maybe the worst thing is sports is going from being a fan of the up-and-coming team that turns out to be the “holy sh*t, we suck, what happened?!?!?!” team.
Well, the worst thing not involving the Vikings and the NFC Championship game at least.
NFC North
Green Bay (11-5)
Detroit (8-8)
Minnesota (7-9)
Chicago (7-9)
I’m always terrible with this division. I likened the Vikings to either “Die Hard With A Vengeance” or “Major League 3”, but the whole thing should’ve been “A Few Good Men”, because I can’t handle the truth of what’s going on in the NFC North these days. Was right on Chicago taking a step back, but only because they were forced to consider starting a hot dog vendor at QB, can’t crow too much about that.
NFC East
Philadelphia (11-5)
Dallas (9-7)
New York Giants (7-9)
Washington (7-9)
Philadelphia, meet St. Louis, and a very perplexed public; now both of you leave, you bother me.
I love this Giants team for some reason, and am rooting for them to win it all. It's not just their delighfully pschizophrenic season, or excellent uniforms, or the fact that their winning would royally piss off the Jets, or the possibility of a legtimate "Who was the better Manning brother?" debate 5 years from now if Eli wins a second title and duplicates this season's performance for a few more years.
Oh wait, yeah it is, all that stuff is why I love em, Go Giants!
AFC Wild Card – New York Jets over San Diego, Baltimore over Houston
NFC Wild Card – Philadelphia over Dallas, Atlanta over St. Louis
AFC Divisional – New York Jets over New England, Pittsburgh over Baltimore
NFC Divisional – New Orleans over Atlanta, Green Bay over Philadelphia
AFC Championship – New York Jets over Pittsburgh
NFC Championship – Green Bay over New Orleans
Super Bowl – New York Jets over Green Bay
Only 7 of 12 playoff teams, Super Bowl champ already gone, not my best work, I must say. But the fun of all this is that when I look around at the predictions from folks who get paid to do this for a living, most are pretty similar. That's why it's the best league on the planet!
On to this week's games:
Cincinnatti @ Houston (-3.5)
In a week of tough games to handicap, this one might be the toughest. Pretty much what you'd expect with two rookie QBs in their first playoff starts. In fact, I've had such a hard time making a pick, I've decided to employ my sister's mascot system to break the tie.
On the surface, it seems like a Bengal would have no problem dispatching a Texan, but you have to consider the likelihood of a random Texan being armed. Given what we know about Texas, that's probably a certainty, did you see this story about the 8th grader who was shot and killed for brandishing a pellet gun in his school? I'm not passing any judgements here, just saying that Texans are pretty much the poster children for not f*cking around. Even a tiger would be wise to give these people a wide berth, and that makes the choice less clear. In the end, I'm going with gut instinct, and choosing the first-string QB over the third.
The pick: Bengals 20, Texans 17 (That's right, not just a cover, an outright win, and I'll throw in a missed Neil Rackers tying-FG as time expires to boot)
Detroit @ New Orleans (-10.5)
All of the people complaining about lack of defense in the bowl games this week had better find something else to do with their Saturday night, because this one could break the scoreboard. A staggering 59-point Over/Under, which I believe is the largest in playoff history, tells us if you're leaving the room for any reason, do so on commercial, or pause the DVR, because you're going to miss someting. Heck, you might want to do the same even if you're just glancing at your watch.
Detroit is plucky, they have the best receiver in football and we all remember what happened the last time the Saints were predicted to roll in a playoff game. Most troubling is that extra half point, sitting there begging for an empty-netter TD to cover in the final minute. Then again, did you watch Detroit's defense last week? If Drew Brees doesn't throw at least 5 TDs, he should be traded to Green Bay immediately for Matt Flynn straight up.
The pick: New Orleans 45, Detroit 32
Atlanta @ New York Giants (-3)
Handing either of these teams your gambling money to protect is like leaving your dog unsupervised while a steak marinates on the counter. You might come out okay, but you can't really be surprised if you come back to find a shattered dish on the floor and steak nowhere to be found. Frankly, you can't even be pissed at the bastard, even when he regurgitates on the carpeting later that evening, you should've know better, schmuck.
I don't know if we'll get the Giants who came to play, or the Giants who got killed by Washington two weeks ago. I don't know if we'll get the Matt Ryan who throws darts all over the field, or the Matt Ryan who appears to be seeing 20-foot receivers like he's on LSD. But I like the home team, and think if they play their best game, it's better than the Falcons.
The pick: New York Giants 30, Atlanta 23
Pittsburgh (-8.5) @ Denver
I'm really trying to not let all the news this week talk me out of the Steelers covering, but it's getting tough. Rashard Mendenhall has a torn ACL, no big deal, they're a pass-first team these days. Ben Roethlisberger tweaked his ankle against Cleveland, no big deal, he's one of the toughest hombres on the planet. Ryan Clark can't play in Denver beacuse his heart might explode, no big deal, who needs DBs when you're playing a guy who can't pass?
Truth be told, I waffled a bit. Not really on the game, but somewhat on the spread. When you get down to it, this game is about two questions:
How much can the Denver offense score?
Do you want to play the odds on a defensive or special teams TD?
My answer to the first question is 10-13 points, and considering that the Broncos scored 5 combined defensive and special teams TDs on the year, the second answer is probably not. It's going to take some bizzare stuff for Denver to cover, and some outlandish things for them to win. But on the other hand, they do specialize in the outlandish, so you can't count that out.
The pick: Pittsburgh 23, Denver 13
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