Showing posts with label NBA Draft Lottery. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA Draft Lottery. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Foul Balls

No, this is not a baseball post.  I am currently in denial as to the state of the local baseball team, and will be attempting to distract myself as long as possible from their struggles.

The post title is instead an homage to the Minnesota Timberwolves history in the NBA draft lottery.  I could've also gone with "Groundhog Day" or "Following The Bouncing Ball (Off A Cliff)".  Last year's post was titled "Honestly, does anyone think this is going to go well?"  Not surprisingly, it did not, and the Wolves are back in familiar territory as the worst team in the NBA as a result.

I could probably just re-post last year's version, as the broad strokes haven't changed much.  The list of near-misses got a bit more stinging, with Derrick Rose moving into MVP territory and John Wall appearing to be the newest in a long line of superstars stolen by the ping-pong balls.  The Wolves organization got a little lousier, with the on-court play treading water and the front office appearing shakier by the day.  The biggest difference is the talent pool in this year's draft, which appears to be a lot thinner than at any time in recent memory.  Although projections are only that, it's a bit tougher to get excited about winning the first pick when there isn't much of a consensus about who that guy is.

You'd be a fool to sneeze at the opportunity to pick first, that's obvious.  But at the same time, there's typically a guy, like Wall last year, who makes fans salivate at the prospect of adding him to the roster.  This year, the name most often mentioned is Kyrie Irving from Duke.  The redundancy in that choice, picking a point guard Top 10 for the third time in three years, should make you chuckle.  There are indications that Ricky Rubio may finally ride in on his white horse to save the franchise, would drafting another PG upset that apple cart?  I'm not saying the team should care if it does, more of an observation on odd situations they always seem to find themselves in.

Beyond Irving, there's Derrick Williams, who is coming off a great NCAA tournament and would be a fun addition.  Only problem is that a 6' 8" small forward is also pretty redundant on a team that has Michael Beasley and last year's 1st-rounder Wes Johnson pretty much in the same spot.  Rest assured, I don't see Williams having a problem supplanting Johnson and/or Beasley, he just wouldn't do much in filling one of the many gaps on the squad.  Otherwise, I'm seeing a crop of undersized centers and foreigners rounding out the Top 10.  I'd find this whole thing much easier to get excited about if there was a scoring 2-guard who could play a bit of perimeter defense, but that guy does not appear to exist this season, at least not at the top of the round.

Being so ambivalent about this year's crop of draftees leads me to one conclusion: For the first time in their history, the Minnesota Timberwolves will win the NBA draft lottery.

What happens from there is anyone's guess.  Maybe they package a couple of forwards for guard help and draft Williams.  Perhaps they deal Rubio's rights and pick Irving to be the point guard of the future.  Maybe they pull off some big time deal, sending the pick to a capped-out franchise in exchange for a superstar.  There will certainly be many options opened up by winning this thing, which is never a bad thing.  But after missing out on so many franchise-changing talents over the years, winning it this season would have a bittersweet tinge.

But hey, whatever keeps my mind of the Twins for a day.

Monday, June 28, 2010

Into the abyss

Busy weekend, lot of stuff happening, unfortunately that's the last time we'll be able to say that for quite a while.  The month of July is the depths of the sports abyss, following the NBA and NHL drafts, and prior to the beginning of meaningful MLB games, it's just a long, slow grind until NFL training camps open.  I might actually have to get a life for a couple of weeks, oh the horror.

The double draft days of the past week were kind of exciting, but at the same time depressing, because when draft day is the most important day on the calendar, that means your team sucks ass.  I can't even remember when it wasn't the most important day on the Timberwolves calendar, and now the Wild have joined them.  Both teams seem destined to continue this trend next year.  It's almost enough to make me long for the sky-high expectations and brutal letdowns of a typical Vikings season...almost.

The Wolves continued their perplexing assembly of a "foundation" this past weekend as if the NBA were a fantasy league with a couple of flex positions.  The current plan appears to be obtaining players who will ensure a higher pick next year.  No real problem with their selection of Wesley Johnson from Syracuse, but trading away their second pick for the highly average Martell Webster was confusing.  I get that they might not have liked the options available to them at the #16 spot, but part of being a rebuilding team is having the freedom to gamble on raw prospects, giving them minutes to develop their game that more established teams can't spare. 

The point is probably moot, since no player that was attainable was going to change the situation this year, but if there's a big picture here, I'm missing it.  A year after drafting 4 point guards in the first round, the Wolves used their #4 pick on a small forward who's a solid shooter and defender with limited ability to get his own shot.  They then traded the #16 pick and Ryan Gomes (another average forward) for a small forward who's a solid shooter and defender with limited ability to get his own shot.  GM David Kahn may love Webster's game, but it's tough to tell why; the stats aren't there and he's certainly not the slashing-type shot creator that the team seems to be lacking. If the guy was coming off a rookie season where he showed promise, this would make more sense, but after 4 years in the league, he probably is what he's going to be the rest of the way.

Obviously it's dangerous to run a team with an eye toward popular opinion, but maybe keeping some guys with youth and potential, rather than trading them for established stiffs, would lessen the fan apathy toward this team?  Two years into his tenure, the KahnMan has turned 7 first round picks into not much.  The only buzz created was from the Rubio pick last season, and that has pretty much subsided.  At this point, the casual fan is going to need to be reminded who he is when (if?) he finally shows up.  They're also going to need an explanation on who is going to carry the scoring load, given the front office's apparently allergy to shooting guards.  Rubio may be an assist wizard, but it's never been a secret he can't shoot; current situation seems like a receipe for a lot of pretty passes followed by bricked shots.

So in general, I'm confused and a bit frustrated.  Adding to the frustration was the fact that the guy I really wanted at SG, James Anderson, was drafted by San Antonio at #20.  Always nice when one of the best college players gets undervalued because he doesn't have the potential offered by less productive players, then is snatched up by the team with the league's best track record of recognizing late first-round value.  I will remember to bring this up in 2 years when Anderson is averaging 20 PPG.

On the other side of the coin is the Minnesota Wild, who have a very clear and consistent philosophy over the years: Acquire the entire Finnish National Team.  Joining Mikko Koivu, Antti Miettinen and Nicklas Backstrom (in a couple of years at least) is Finland center Mikael Granlund, a playmaking center who's supposedly more NHL ready than many other first rounders.  Not the end of the world to draft another Euro, as it was at a position of need and the early run on forwards left things paired down, but geez is this team in love with Finnish players. 

When it comes to European hockey playuers, I tend to share the opinion of NHL GM Brian Burke, the architect of the Anaheim Ducks multiple Stanley Cup teams in the 2000s.  Burke favored North American players because they grew up dreaming of winning the Stanley Cup, and playing a more rugged style.  The Ducks two Cup-winning teams were built on size and toughness, with Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Scott Niedermeyer and Chris Pronger anchoring a nasty group of players who ground opponents down.  Looking back through history, this seems to be the norm in the playoffs; when things get nasty, North American players flourish as European players fold. 

There are of course exceptions, namely the Detroit Red Wings core of Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen and Lidstrom, but in general, the best players on most Cup winners are from this side of the Atlantic.  The Wild's playoff no-shows have had several root causes, and certainly not all can be traced back to the presence of Euros as the team's top players.  But when you already have two as your top forwards and one in net, adding another seems like overkill to me.  Just my opinion of course, and certainly hope it's proven wrong.

Silver lining to the draft by the way is the selection of Jason Zucker in the 2nd round.  He might be a bit on the small side at 5'10" / 175, but after watching his play on the gold-medal winning US national team in last year's World Junior Championships, I think this guy could be a great add.  Very quick with a knack for putting the puck in the net.  Plus he'll be a freshman at the University of Denver next season, so us college hockey fans will get to watch his development over the next couple of seasons.  Unfortunate that he will be playing for the hated Pioneers, but you can't have everything.

Finally, the US soccer team lost to Ghana on Saturday, a country with slightly fewer people than the state of Texas.  Thus ends another World Cup "run" in the first game of the knockout stage, basically no better or worse than was expected.  I'm happy that the soccer fans got their moment last week on the big goal to advance the team past pool play, but the whole deal strikes me as kind of "meh".  The US team was about two minutes short of heading home after 3 tie games, which would've been the most boring result possible.  It's nice they advanced further, and I did enjoy Saturday's game, but just don't see soccer moving past it's status with me as a novelty every 4th year.

Monday, June 21, 2010

Stuff I hope happens this week

Lot of stuff coming down the pike this week with MLB trade speculation heating up, World Cup continuing, NBA and NHL drafts happening, so I know you're dying to hear how my perfect week would play out.  We'll taking this from likely to extremely remote:

USA beats whatever former Communist republic is next on the docket - I certainly hope this is the lock of the week, need a win to get into the knockout round, pull it together and win one, will you guys?  I mean it's friggin Albania or Algeria or whatever, unless the competition involves herding goats, America should notch a W.

Twins take the series from the Brewers - The Twins are pretty good, Brewers are pretty awful, the interleague springboard has been going pretty well so far, winning 2 of 3 should be easily attainable (don't even say the word sweep).  Why the baseball schedule makers put this series in the middle of the week for the second straight year is beyond me, particularly when the team has to go from Philly to Milwaukee to New York for 3 games against the Mets this weekend.  Twins fans should be afforded the same courtesy that Brewer fans were when the two teams played a weekend series at Target Field a couple of weeks back, that six month baseball schedule too tight to find a workable weekend?  Given the bragging rights dominance that Wisconsin holds in professional (at least historically) and college football, as well as superior hoops teams at both levels, us Minnesotans need an opportunity to invade one of THEIR stadiums and hassle them about THEIR terrible team.  The Brewers fill that niche nicely, and now those in attendance will have to pick up the razzing slack for the few thousand fans who would've made the weekend trip, but can't beg out Tuesday-Thursday.  Sad to think about all those poor people who will have to make do without their polka fix this year.

Wild draft a player I've heard of/can follow this Friday - Probably pretty remote actually, given the team's draft position and needs, but it's always fun when the team drafts someone who will be playing in college next season, preferrably the WCHA.  Given the team's past history with college players, I'm not too sure they even like them, last year's first round pick was Minnesota Golden Gopher Nick Leddy, but he was shipped to the Blackhawks this season, and it's a different crew of people making the selections this time around.  Obviously the first priority is to get somebody who's going to help the team, but drafting a guy, then watching him disappear into the Canadian wilderness for the next 2-3 years always leaves me a bit cold.  At the very least, they could pick someone who ends up on the Canadian World Junior team, so we can at least get a look at them next December.  The list of guys who fit my profile is pretty short: Cam Fowler played for the US in last year's WJC and was great, but the Wild don't really need more defensemen and he'll be gone before the 9th pick comes around.  Future UND Fighting Sioux Derek Forbort is slotted in the 8-12 range in most rankings, but again, defense is not going to be a top priority.  Minnesota's Mr. Hockey Nick Bjugstad is projected in the upper teens and would be an intriguing center prospect, but given the rumors that have swirled around the last couple of years regarding NHL opinions on the University of Minnesota program (including one stating the Wild were unhappy with Leddy's progress), it's difficult to see the team picking another Gopher.  Warroad native Brock Nelson, also a North Dakota signee, would be a fun addition in the second round if he slips a few picks from his current projection, as would Jared Tinodi (son of former North Star Mark and a Notre Dame signee) and a few other CCHA players.

Timberwolves move up and draft Evan Turner - I'm not saying you should sell the farm Dave, but everything I hear points to things in this year's NBA draft getting pretty murky beyond the top 3.  It would be interesting if Turner were to slip to the third spot, but there seems to be no chance of him getting to the Wolves at #4.  While any top 5 pick is going to be a good player, I've seen a lot of Turner and would really like to get him, even if it means giving up the 16th pick to move up two slots.  Fallback plan here is doing whatever it takes to get James Anderson with that 16th pick.  I'm no NBA draftnik, frankly I haven't seen half of the guys play; but I have seen Anderson a few times and he can flat-out score, both inside and outside, which is something this team has been severely lacking.  Take Wesley Johnson at #4, then do what has to be done to make sure you land Anderson, even if it means dealing pick #23.  If you draft a 7-foot European center, I'm done with this team.

Twins trade for Cliff Lee - Am I deluding myself with this one?  Most likely.  Many a grand Twins rumor has emerged over the years, only to be exposed as a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing.  Normally I wouldn't even allow myself to get sucked in to this degree, but this has been a surprising season so far, and for the first time it seems believeable that this team could be capable of a coup-de-grace move of this type.  The fit would seem perfect for both teams, given the Twins surplus of young pitchers and expendable prospects, laid out in excellent fashion here http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/06/14/trading-cliff-lee/. If the price to do this is Slowey/Ramos/prospect-not-named-Hicks-or-Revere, then I'm on board wholeheartedly.  Less enthused about giving up Baker (who I hate just as much as Slowey, but see greater potential in), but even that would not be a deal breaker.  I've said many times it's time to take a shot, and we're talking about replaceable parts here, time to get something big done and turn this team into a legit contender overnight.

More in-depth thoughts on how to overhaul the Wild coming later this week, as for the Wolves, it's a simple two-step process: Hope and Wait.  Or Wait and Hope, if you prefer.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

A return to the back burner

Dear Mr. Kahn,

Well, here we are again, left wondering where it all went wrong.  Well not wondering so much, it's easy to pinpoint the exact moment where everything started a slow swirl to the bottom of the bowl, think it was around pick #6, when the Golden State logo came out of the envelope and it was clear that two teams with higher picks had found their way into the top 3.  Sure there was a slim chance that the Wolves still could've ended up in their rightful position, but those of us who have seen this movie before knew how it ended, and it wasn't pretty.

I'm not really mad about it, just disappointed; probably more so than I should be, given past history and expectations that were at rock bottom.  But even when you expect nothing, it's hard not to feel a twinge of excitement as the dominoes start to fall, and one team after another takes it's correct place.  The moment was similar two, although not approaching the significance of, the Vikings march down the field as time ran down in the NFC Championship game.  You try so hard not to care, but once you get a glimpse of that goal line, emotion overrides logic, and you start to believe, only to be slapped down hard once again.

On the bright side, I suppose we've really lost nothing here.  No lead has been blown, no big name is leaving town, the cost of this misfire is just a series of hypotheticals, which may even prove to come true in some other roundabout way.  As a master of spin Mr Kahn, you've been quick to offer a fallback, and we appreciate that.  Perhaps history will eventually bear out your claims that moves can be made and not all is lost with your team's failure to land one of the two big names in this year's draft.  Perhaps soon, even the fabled Rubio will come from across the sea to usher in a new era of Wolves basketball alongside Lottery Pick X, who's presence we will no doubt bemoan when it's announced next month.  Maybe, perhaps, possibly, things could work out in some oddly ironic way.  But at the moment Dave, from where I'm sitting, you don't appear to have a damn thing. 

Going into last night, I was ready to give things the benefit of the doubt and reinvest myself in the Timberwolves basketball.  At one point I was an entusiastic fan, but years of stagnant, fringe-playoff teams had dampened that enthusiasm.  But with the Wolves poised to take the first steps back to relevance, it seemed time to check back in; after all, rooting for a young team on the rise is far more intriguing than an established squad stuck in the middle.  Youth offers the promise of improvement, that tomorrow will be better than today, instead of the gnawing concern of the same familiar flaw popping up again to derail a season, as it always does in the world of the perennial also-ran.  The Wolves teams during the last few years of the Garnett Era were a caricature of their previous selves, continually trying to plug one hole in the dam, just to have three or four new ones spring forth.  The team was neither good enough to win it all, nor bad enough to gain a high draft pick, it was simply spinning it's wheels; frankly, as a sports fan, I consider this the worst possible place to be.

So fast forward a few years, and while this wasn't exactly a team on the rise, it was certainly a team ready to move onto the next chapter.  Gone were the ill-advised contracts handed out in last-gasp attempts to salvage the end of an area, replaced instead by malleable (albeit underskilled) parts that could be shifted as necessary in pursuit of a nucleus.  From that nucleus we'd build a competent squad, then a playoff team, and then a contender; at least that's the way it gets drawn up.  The path has been laid out by many other organizations throughout sports history, and while falling into absolute irrelevance is tough to stomach, it also provides the freedom to do whatever is necessary to change the conditions that put you there in the first place.  Nothing is sacred, it can all get blown up, all that's required to rise from the ashes is a shrewd evaluator of talent at the helm, ownership that was will to spend as needed...and a little bit of luck.

You see Dave, that's where it's always gone wrong around here, as yesterday once again hammered home.  It would seem that random chance should dictate a single instance of success in 15 tries at anything with a resonable probability of success.  Yet time after time, despite odds that are certainly more than reasonable, the failure continues to perpetuate. (Meanwhile, teams like the Wizards, who wouldn't be within a mile of the lottery had their best player not been suspended all year, strike gold, you really can't make it up)  Adding in the abysmal front office missteps over the years, and the fact that NBA free agents apparently view Minnesota as a slighty more desirable destination than Siberia, it gets pretty tough to imagine a scenario in which this franchise will ever be able to free itself from it's current morass.

I guess what I'm trying to say here is, this isn't working for me and something needs to change.  It's not you, it's me; you've barely been here a year, my fear and loathing regarding the draft day misadventures of the franchise go back a decade more.  While it can be said your first runthrough has not been overly encouraging, you're not to blame for even one-tenth of the apathy I feel toward your franchise; the seeds of boredom were sewn long ago, and they now stand as a towering oak of indifference that even the sharpest axe could not fell.  It's true these situations do not fix themselves overnight, but this team has been teetering toward irrelevance for the better part of a decade, falling over the brink a few seasons ago, perhaps never to be heard from again.

So you're on your own Dave, sorry to say, but I just can't muster the interest for another season where 20 wins is the ceiling.  I'll check back again in a year or so, in the meantime re-iterating the same hope I had at this time last year: That the coming draft yields at least one player who gives the appearance of being a future building block (one who sees actual NBA minutes this season would be preferable).  I have to admit, I have my doubts about your acumen, but I like your sense of humor and hope you succeed in spite of my reservations.  After all, we're in this together...well, you know, after you get something resembling a professional basketball team on the floor.

Best wishes,
Pat

P.S. I know you said you don't believe in luck, but even so, bringing the Vikings play-by-play guy to the lottery couldn't have helped.

P.P.S. Rubio is never going to play here, trade him for anything of decent value.

Monday, May 17, 2010

Saved by the (Ku)bel

Whew!  That was a close one.

So I might not have held out much hope for a good showing by the Twins this weekend in the Big Apple, but walking away from the series with zero wins would've been a kick in the nuts all the same.  That fate appeared to be all but sealed yesterday, with the Yankees leading by 2 runs and needing only 4 outs to extend their dominance in the matchup between these two teams.  It took the rarest form of one of the rarest occurences in sports to turn the tide, Mariano Rivera blowing a save (which he never does against the Twins) on a grand slam, of all things (which hasn't happened in 8 years and hasn't happened at home in 15, wow).

Add it all up and at the end of the day, it totals out to a victory, although I would temper enthusiasm by saying what just happened is unlikely to happen again this season.  Given the percentages, if the Twins face Rivera down two in the postseason, the odds on a repeat performance are about the same as Beyonce leaving Jay-Z for yours truly...okay maybe not that long, but don't bank on it by any means.

Now it's on to Toronto and Boston, which have also been hostile locations in prior years, and don't look to be getting any more forgiving.  Toronto in particular has seemed a bane to this team going back to the World Series, too lazy to grab stats on that, but I can recall as a kid going to see the Blue Jays a lot, and losing just about every time.  Last year the Twins compiled a 3-4 record against Toronto, but were 2-9 against them in the two seasons prior.  Considering the history against Jays, their league-leading home run total and the fact that tonight's opposing lineup is 22-for-44 all time against starter Kevin Slowey, I'm going to take the not-so-bold step of guaranteeing defeat this evening.  Still think a split of the remaining games is possible though.

Tomorrow is a very special occasion on the Loserville calendar, the NBA Draft Lottery, aka the Annual Death of Hope.  We'll be taking a trip down memory lane, in preparation for that magical moment when the Wolves logo is pulled from the envelope for the 4th pick, how very special that will be.